General Leafs Talk

[mr grieves]

Anyhow, you already know I'm not complaining we didn't trick the Pens into extending Malkin on the Leafs.

Honestly, I'm not inclined to give you that sort of credit. The entirety of the complaining about Bozak as the team's #1 center seems centered around guys who are, at best debatable marginal upgrades and none of whom remotely fall into the category of ideal choices for the position.

Well, you don't have to give me that sort of credit. You can look around to see where I said the only option from improving the top 6 was an imaginary trade for Sidney Crosby.

Any sort of player of that caliber would have to be acquired by trade and we don't know who's available. We don't know what they would cost. There is no reason to just assume that if Nonis wanted to he could snap his fingers and get a deal done.

The only thing I said about trades to upgrade is they'd be nice if they didn't cost too much, and, after Grabo was bought out, that the cap space had better have a better purpose than re-signing Tyler Bozak or its no upgrade at all. A lot of people said that. Zee even said he'd "eat his hat" if Nonis didn't have something better up his sleeve.

I'd look at the list of players available thinking only that the coach is going to put those of comprable skill level together.

Which, quite frankly, is crazy. It's just not how hockey teams are put together. The idea that Nonis or Carlyle are somehow operating beyond the norm for considering things like how players fit with each other and whether their styles compliment each other as opposed to just putting their three best players on the top line...I mean, that's not something that fits in with a basic understanding of the game.

There's a point at which fit becomes more valuable than skill, sure. There's also a point where chasing fit can downgrade your skill to the point that it becomes a problem. It's crazy to think Bozak-Kadri's a better option down the middle than Grabo-Kadri. You don't even think that.

The limiting factor you add, though it does describe how Nonis settled on Bozak as their "best possible," only really tells us about a shortcoming of coaching and management -- or a management bias we can disagree with -- not that better centers than Bozak weren't available for the top 6 for competitive prices.

Again, this assumes that the issue of how good Tyler Bozak is vs. the other centers available is a settled matter. It isn't. This is what I meant earlier when I said that it seems as though your primary interest is limiting, rather than broadening discussion by making these declarative statements on the shakiest of possible "evidence". The idea that Bozak is a "less skilled" player than the others available is strictly your opinion. It is not the majority one. There is no one definition of skill.

The "evidence" for my view isn't just ES P/60 and Corsi numbers. It's PPG, points total, points considered in relation to a player's role and line mates, watching the player enter and move about the zone, how he finds other players with passes, how he gets into position to receive them and whether he converts them. No, it's not a settled matter that Tyler Bozak is worse than Mikhail Grabovski, but most of what I see looking at the above supports that conclusion.

 

[mr grieves]

Of them, throwing Lecavalier a bunch of money -- well, not a Clarkson bunch, but, you know, more than 5 x 4.5M... so 4.7M? -- sure does sound better than Bozak + $500K of cap space for David Clarkson.

You know the Leafs met with Lecavalier, right? And that they attempted to sign him? And he, as a free agent, chose Philly?

This isn't a video game. You don't just get whoever you want if you offer them marginally more than what they got elsewhere.

As you're fond of pointing out when convenient, we don't know what, if anything, the Leafs actually offered. Dreger or LeBrun reported Dave and Claude met with him in New York, and Nonis refused to say anything other than that they'd met. That's all we know. If anyone reputable reported a contract offer, I missed it.

 

[Kin]

The only thing I said about trades to upgrade is they'd be nice if they didn't cost too much, and, after Grabo was bought out, that the cap space had better have a better purpose than re-signing Tyler Bozak or its no upgrade at all.

You just said, verbatim, that when we try to rank Bozak among the possible options Nonis had available to him that we should factor in who was available via trade. You suggest I should go back to see where you said they should trade for Crosby but you're not even being consistent with your criticism from post to post.

There's a point at which fit becomes more valuable than skill, sure. There's also a point where chasing fit can downgrade your skill to the point that it becomes a problem. It's crazy to think Bozak-Kadri's a better option down the middle than Grabo-Kadri. You don't even think that.

No, there is no point at which fit is more valuable than skill. Fit is a factor that can push one player above another. When you're talking about two players who are as roughly comparable and equally ill-suited to the role of #1 center then that's exactly where fit can be the deciding factor.

And I absolutely believe that Kadri, Bolland and Bozak at what they'll cost can be a better group than Kadri, Bolland and Grabo and what they would have cost. Especially considering the now clearly apparent clashing between Carlyle and Grabo and that we ultimately don't know who will fit in where on the depth chart.

No, it's not a settled matter that Tyler Bozak is worse than Mikhail Grabovski, but most of what I see looking at the above supports that conclusion.

Sure. Because the "above" are all of the numbers that favor Grabo slightly or are entirely subjective reads you've made of the two players. Defense, size, face-off percentage, physical play, versatility...the areas where Bozak is superior to Grabo don't enter the equation if you want to make comments like "It's crazy to think Bozak-Kadri's a better option down the middle than Grabo-Kadri."

 

[Kin]

As you're fond of pointing out when convenient, we don't know what, if anything, the Leafs actually offered. Dreger or LeBrun reported Dave and Claude met with him in New York, and Nonis refused to say anything other than that they'd met. That's all we know. If anyone reputable reported a contract offer, I missed it.

None of which changes the fact that you can't just assume that if Lecavalier, who again multiple reports said he was not interested in a Canadian market, could have been signed by the Maple Leafs just by virtue of paying him 200,000 more than what he signed for in Philly. He isn't an "option" just because you'd like him to be.

That's no more realistic than assuming the Leafs could have signed him for 2 million.

 

[dappleganger]

We, as Leaf fans, should be thinking Kadri is a No.1 Center.

 

[hap_leaf]

Look at the post above you. Look at all of the great "options" the Leafs had to add a better center. Lecavalier, who everyone swears up and down didn't want to play in a market like Toronto, could have just been had for money! We could have traded for the #3 pick for Kadri and ?? and, quite frankly, when's the last time ?? has helped the team!

It's this kind of defeatist attitude that we are trying to overcome as LeafNation.  There's every possibility that in the years since Sundin has departed that a deal could have been formed - and the gaping hole closed that is our #1 C position which has been so apparent to every team that plays us.  The team has been through dozens and dozens of prospects and picks that have never panned out.  Many of decent calibre as well.  Unfortunately, you gotta give something to get something.  Other GM's are somehow able to do the "unthinkable" and get their man.  And we will too.  We won't stop talking about it.  The papers won't stop writing about it.  Our center situation is an embarrasment and it's going to be fixed now that we have recovered from the Kessel trade and getting more good prospects in the system.

PS Moving to #3 that year was a very real possibilty and as you say, whatever ?? was just wasn't enough to entice COL.

 

[Kin]

It's this kind of defeatist attitude that we are trying to overcome as LeafNation.  There's every possibility that in the years since Sundin has departed that a deal could have been formed - and the gaping hole closed that is our #1 C position which has been so apparent to every team that plays us. 

In the years that you're talking about, what teams have actually added a top flight, unquestionable #1 center via trade?

 

[hap_leaf]

As you're fond of pointing out when convenient, we don't know what, if anything, the Leafs actually offered. Dreger or LeBrun reported Dave and Claude met with him in New York, and Nonis refused to say anything other than that they'd met. That's all we know. If anyone reputable reported a contract offer, I missed it.

None of which changes the fact that you can't just assume that if Lecavalier, who again multiple reports said he was not interested in a Canadian market, could have been signed by the Maple Leafs just by virtue of paying him 200,000 more than what he signed for in Philly. He isn't an "option" just because you'd like him to be.

That's no more realistic than assuming the Leafs could have signed him for 2 million.

The fact is Nonis and Co. are trying and that means they recognize the inherent problem with our lineup and they mean to fix it.  Maybe this guy has a issues with playing in big name markets or whatever his case is.  At least they sat down with him and figured it out.  Eventually they will get their man.
Nonis "would not coment on the vibe" with Vinny which could mean anything!

 

[hap_leaf]

It's this kind of defeatist attitude that we are trying to overcome as LeafNation.  There's every possibility that in the years since Sundin has departed that a deal could have been formed - and the gaping hole closed that is our #1 C position which has been so apparent to every team that plays us. 

In the years that you're talking about, what teams have actually added a top flight, unquestionable #1 center via trade?

Nothing is without risk, this is the human element we are talking about.  So you can say that they are not top-flight or whatever.  They are all better than what we have and in my opinion worth the risk.  Only Brad Richards has not exactly lived up to expectations but he has time to get it together.

I'd have been comfortable with any of these deals for both teams, seems like a fair deal to both sides:

Philadelphia Flyers traded Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jakub Voracek, a first-round draft pick and third-round draft pick.

Pittsburgh Penguins traded Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and a 1st round selection in 2012.

Tampa Bay Lightning traded Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist to the Dallas Stars for Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round selection in 2009.

 

[Kin]

Nothing is without risk, this is the human element we are talking about.  So you can say that they are not top-flight or whatever.  They are all better than what we have and in my opinion worth the risk.  Only Brad Richards has not exactly lived up to expectations but he has time to get it together.

So, just so we're clear, the answer is zero. Zero teams have added a top flight #1 center via trade in that time span.

I'd have been comfortable with any of these deals for both teams, seems like a fair deal to both sides:

It's super easy to trade players you never had but no matter, let's look at them.

Philadelphia Flyers traded Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jakub Voracek, a first-round draft pick and third-round draft pick.

It's worth mentioning that Carter didn't really play center this year. He lined up on Richards' wing. That means he was a second line RW this year. He scored 26 goals and 33 points. What the Blue Jackets traded was Jakub Voracek, who scored 22 goals and 46 points and the #8 pick in a good draft. Ignoring that the Leafs didn't have a top 10 pick that year the comparable to Voracek is Kadri who...scored more points than Carter last year and actually did play center.

Pittsburgh Penguins traded Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and a 1st round selection in 2012.

Again, that "1st round selection" was a top 10 pick. So we're talking about Rielly right off the bat. Again, this would be for someone older than Kadri, who many reported was unwilling to sign an extension with a team that didn't also have his brother on it, who didn't get time as his team's #1 center and who scored fewer points than Kadri.

Tampa Bay Lightning traded Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist to the Dallas Stars for Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round selection in 2009.

And two years later the Stars lost Richards. Even if they hadn't they were faced with having to pay Richards, 31 at the time, on a 9 year contract. He also scored fewer points than Nazem Kadri last year.

So of all of the options you're talking about only one was their team's #1 center last year(the guy who's 33 and got benched in the playoffs), another was their team's #2 center(and who wanted to play with his brother) and another was a 2nd line RW(Who was traded for something the Leafs didn't have). They're all older than Kadri, none of them scored as many points as him last year...so why are any of them, plus their significant asset cost, better than what the Leafs already have?

 

[mr grieves]

The only thing I said about trades to upgrade is they'd be nice if they didn't cost too much, and, after Grabo was bought out, that the cap space had better have a better purpose than re-signing Tyler Bozak or its no upgrade at all.

You just said, verbatim, that when we try to rank Bozak among the possible options Nonis had available to him that we should factor in who was available via trade. You suggest I should go back to see where you said they should trade for Crosby but you're not even being consistent with your criticism from post to post.

There's a bit of ground between judging someone "available via trade" because he's recently bought out or traded and imagining Sidney Crosby or Malkin on their way to the Leafs. And you're covering it pretty quickly.

There's a point at which fit becomes more valuable than skill, sure. There's also a point where chasing fit can downgrade your skill to the point that it becomes a problem. It's crazy to think Bozak-Kadri's a better option down the middle than Grabo-Kadri. You don't even think that.

No, there is no point at which fit is more valuable than skill. Fit is a factor that can push one player above another. When you're talking about two players who are as roughly comparable and equally ill-suited to the role of #1 center then that's exactly where fit can be the deciding factor.

So there's no point at which "fit is more valuable than skill," but that comes with the qualifier that that no point is limited to cases where you're talking about players who are roughly comparable? That doesn't even make sense.

And I absolutely believe that Kadri, Bolland and Bozak at what they'll cost can be a better group than Kadri, Bolland and Grabo and what they would have cost.

You're implying the Leafs got some sort of savings from replacing Grabo with Bozak, but those savings were very quickly poured into upgrading MacArthur to Clarkson. What the Leafs have right now costs about $500k more than leaving Grabo on the roster and re-signing MacArthur (or replacing him with another 20 goal winger getting page ~$2m less than Clarkson).

We'll have to see how everything plays out, but I'd not mind having an extra $500k to add the fewer than $6m the team now has to re-sign Fraser, Franson, and Gunnarson.

Especially considering the now clearly apparent clashing between Carlyle and Grabo and that we ultimately don't know who will fit in where on the depth chart.

And our evidence for "clearly apparent clashing" is an interview given hours after a player who really liked playing in this city was bought out. That, after a half season of the player being well outside his comfort zone made no complaints and did what was asked of him.

No, it's not a settled matter that Tyler Bozak is worse than Mikhail Grabovski, but most of what I see looking at the above supports that conclusion.

Sure. Because the "above" are all of the numbers that favor Grabo slightly or are entirely subjective reads you've made of the two players. Defense, size, face-off percentage, physical play, versatility...the areas where Bozak is superior to Grabo don't enter the equation if you want to make comments like "It's crazy to think Bozak-Kadri's a better option down the middle than Grabo-Kadri."
[/quote]

Well, I don't think it's a "slight" difference between 107P (45G, 62A) and 125P (61G, 64A), especially when one player spent a quarter of the games in a defensive role and the other played with the eighth highest scorer in the league over the last 3 years.

But, sure, it's not settled. In those that you list, Bozak seems to have a slight edge over Grabo (though they strike me as even as far as physical play goes -- neither does much). So, you tell me which of the many things we're talking about is more useful for a top-six center.

 

[mr grieves]

As you're fond of pointing out when convenient, we don't know what, if anything, the Leafs actually offered. Dreger or LeBrun reported Dave and Claude met with him in New York, and Nonis refused to say anything other than that they'd met. That's all we know. If anyone reputable reported a contract offer, I missed it.

None of which changes the fact that you can't just assume that if Lecavalier, who again multiple reports said he was not interested in a Canadian market, could have been signed by the Maple Leafs just by virtue of paying him 200,000 more than what he signed for in Philly. He isn't an "option" just because you'd like him to be.

That's no more realistic than assuming the Leafs could have signed him for 2 million.

Yeah, no more realistic, except that it's 2 millions dollars closer to what he signed for in the real world.

What I read from LeBrun or Dreger gave me the impression the Leafs were scared off by the term.  Later that week, David Clarkson got a 7 year contract. So, I don't know.

 

[Kin]

There's a bit of ground between judging someone "available via trade" because he's recently bought out or traded and imagining Sidney Crosby or Malkin on their way to the Leafs.

Sure, but the people who are frequently being listed as "available for trade" are not people who've been bought out or traded of late. So tell me, who is it that has recently been bought out or traded that you think the Leafs should have traded for? Lecavalier and his super-awesome contract? Briere?

So there's no point at which "fit is more valuable than skill," but that comes with the qualified that that no point is limited to cases where you're talking about players who are roughly comparable? That doesn't even make sense.

Well, provided your second sentence there is in reference to your first sentence there, that's true. I don't know what's tricky for you to grasp about the idea that how a player fits into the talent on a team can be the determining factor when talking about two players of roughly equal skill.

You're implying the Leafs got some sort of savings from replacing Grabo with Bozak,

No, no, no. I'm not implying that. That's just a straight up fact. Mac vs. Clarkson is an entirely different discussion.

And our evidence for "clearly apparent clashing" is an interview given hours after the player was bought out.

Yes. Admittedly, I'm basing that on what the principals involved have actually said.

Well, I don't think it's a "slight" difference between 107P (45G, 62A) and 125P (61G, 64A), especially when one player spent a quarter of the games in a defensive role and the other played with the eighth highest scorer in the league over the last 3 years.

For their careers, Mikhail Grabovski's PPG is .59. Tyler Bozak's is .56. On a per 82 game basis that's the difference of 3 points a year. That is just about the definition of a slight difference.

But, sure, it's not settled. In those that you list, Bozak seems to have a slight edge over Grabo (though they strike me as even as far as physical play goes -- neither does much). So, you tell me which of the many things we're talking about is more useful for a top-six center.

Well, considering that the two players have scored at virtually identical clips over the course of their career that would be a situation where things like fit and the peripheral things that Bozak is better at probably give him the edge. When you toss in things like the lower cost, whatever pull Bozak has with Kessel, the fact that Bozak is two years younger with 150 games fewer on his fairly larger frame, that he seems like the kind of guy who would react better if Kadri's emergence bumped him down the depth chart...yeah, I think there's fair points to be made both ways.

 

[Kin]

What I read from LeBrun or Dreger gave me the impression the Leafs were scared off by the term.  Later that week, David Clarkson got a 7 year contract. So, I don't know.

That "impression" which seems relatively unsubstantiated by anything I've read, still doesn't mean the Leafs could have signed him for a few hundred thousand extra dollars. It's just not a fair basis for criticism.

 

[slapshot]

All of the moaning even in the media about the Leafs not just going out and adding "a number 1 center" or a "stud" defenceman. Do people think other GMs can't wait to give these guys away? The signing of Bozak in my mind is simply the signing of a decent #2 center, who may bide some time in the number 1 spot. I think the Leafs wait and see if Kadri can take it to the next level, essentially playing that top flight game he did for portions of last season more consistently over the entire season. If that fails to materialize then they may need to look a package to go for a top flight center.
On the d-side, again they are going to let their younger guys develop, Rielly, Blacker, Percy, Finn, etc. At some point maybe you move one of them in a package for a top tier d-man. For now, I think we've upgraded, we see what we've got.
Some are saying look at who these other teams added? Doesn't mean the other signings at going to turn out so great. Last couple of years, everyone was saying "wow" look who these added. A couple of years ago it was Buffalo, last year Carolina was improved so much. Nash was going to put the Rangers over the top. You can't always say just adding this piece or that piece is going to guarantee success.
I'm happy with the type of character players added, and I think we see how guys like Kadri, Gardiner and the young goalies progress. That will likely have a bigger impact on how the Leafs fare than anything else.

 

[Bender]

The success of the team and his elite line mates doesn't alter the mediocrity of Bozak any more than John and Paul turned Ringo into Keith Moon.

No. But nobody looks at the Beatles and says "Man, they would have really been successful if they'd had a better drummer" either.

Yeah.  Furthermore its really an unfair analogy towards Ringo. 

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

All points aside, I think some people are going to be surprised at the season Bozak is going to have. I think he's better than some are giving him credit for. I know we can't prognosticate, but to me, Bozak has gotten better every year he's played in the league.

I'm sure somebody will pull some stats and prove me wrong, but from the game I'm watching, he's definitely improved immensely since we signed him.

 

[AvroArrow]

All points aside, I think some people are going to be surprised at the season Bozak is going to have. I think he's better than some are giving him credit for. I know we can't prognosticate, but to me, Bozak has gotten better every year he's played in the league.

I'm sure somebody will pull some stats and prove me wrong, but from the game I'm watching, he's definitely improved immensely since we signed him.

Still doesn't make him a first line centre.

 

[mr grieves]

What I read from LeBrun or Dreger gave me the impression the Leafs were scared off by the term.  Later that week, David Clarkson got a 7 year contract. So, I don't know.

That "impression" which seems relatively unsubstantiated by anything I've read, still doesn't mean the Leafs could have signed him for a few hundred thousand extra dollars. It's just not a fair basis for criticism.

To my mind, at $5m Lecavalier would've been worth it as an upgrade.

Back to the point: what, then, becomes a fair a basis of criticism? Is there a general principle at work here beyond this particular case? It seems to me the only move the team had to make and its best possible move was the one it made. Is there another trade or signing out there that, at the time, you couldn't defend as the best possible move? I'm curious.

 

[hap_leaf]

Nothing is without risk, this is the human element we are talking about.  So you can say that they are not top-flight or whatever.  They are all better than what we have and in my opinion worth the risk.  Only Brad Richards has not exactly lived up to expectations but he has time to get it together.

So, just so we're clear, the answer is zero. Zero teams have added a top flight #1 center via trade in that time span.

I'd have been comfortable with any of these deals for both teams, seems like a fair deal to both sides:

It's super easy to trade players you never had but no matter, let's look at them.

Philadelphia Flyers traded Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jakub Voracek, a first-round draft pick and third-round draft pick.

It's worth mentioning that Carter didn't really play center this year. He lined up on Richards' wing. That means he was a second line RW this year. He scored 26 goals and 33 points. What the Blue Jackets traded was Jakub Voracek, who scored 22 goals and 46 points and the #8 pick in a good draft. Ignoring that the Leafs didn't have a top 10 pick that year the comparable to Voracek is Kadri who...scored more points than Carter last year and actually did play center.

Pittsburgh Penguins traded Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and a 1st round selection in 2012.

Again, that "1st round selection" was a top 10 pick. So we're talking about Rielly right off the bat. Again, this would be for someone older than Kadri, who many reported was unwilling to sign an extension with a team that didn't also have his brother on it, who didn't get time as his team's #1 center and who scored fewer points than Kadri.

Tampa Bay Lightning traded Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist to the Dallas Stars for Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round selection in 2009.

And two years later the Stars lost Richards. Even if they hadn't they were faced with having to pay Richards, 31 at the time, on a 9 year contract. He also scored fewer points than Nazem Kadri last year.

So of all of the options you're talking about only one was their team's #1 center last year(the guy who's 33 and got benched in the playoffs), another was their team's #2 center(and who wanted to play with his brother) and another was a 2nd line RW(Who was traded for something the Leafs didn't have). They're all older than Kadri, none of them scored as many points as him last year...so why are any of them, plus their significant asset cost, better than what the Leafs already have?

Let's step out of the Matrix for a moment.  In no way is a comparison to Kadri warranted.  In the event we landed the type of player needed for the last 5 years...all discussion about comparisons to current Leaf players is irrelevant.  And I am a Kadri supporter.  He lacks the size that I believe is envisioned for a true top flight #1 guy.  I'm thinking he lacks about 20 lbs and some grit that comes with it.  I know full well the team has been trying to get him to pack on some muscle since he was drafted but now at age 22 I am not sure he will get there.  I think he slots in nicely at #2 on about 20 NHL depth charts at C.  He made huge strides last year and I believe for one month he was number 2 or 3 NHL Player of the Month. 

How do you confidently say Brad Richards would not have flourished here?
Or that Carter playing as a pure centerman would not have been outstanding.  Different line mates, different minutes and PP time.  We will never know!  I'd say the risk is worth it based on what the other teams gave for them.  But the important thing here is that management has identified the issue and is seeking to fix it.  If they have discussions and are involved in the process, eventually they will land their player. 


You asked for examples of top flight #1 C having been involved in trades and I gave them to you with the asterisk that you may not think they are as elite as you gauge important for the dialogue.  And that's your prerogative.  Just be reminded that this is indeed possible; it does happen on a yearly basis that the type of player that would improve the Leafs does become available.  Whether its a good fit in Toronto is case-by-case.  We can't help that someone wants to play with their brother - LOL.  However as we become a respectable team again I think we will see these types of elite players want to come to Toronto.