Corn Flake
New member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:Shores us up for 2-3 years until ... what? None of our prospects is an obvious heir apparent like Rask or Schneider. They are all huge question marks.
If there was an obvious Rask or Schneider then we wouldn't be talking about vets at all. In both those cases you have guys who should have been starters probably 2 years ago stuck behind a veteran. The Leafs have 3-4 "prospect" goalies, two of which are barely old enough to be entering the years which a goalie usually steps into a starting role. I still believe Reimer can bounce back, cushioned by a veteran to ease the load, pressure and exude some experience on him.
The real issue here is not whether you think Luongo can be effective until he's 42. It's whether he will be until he's 38 or 39. Potvin adduced some stats to say that there's a good likelihood; cw's Vezina analysis casts doubt.
To me, I see a big guy like Luongo who plays a butterfly style as perhaps having injury/mobility issues a little earlier than, say, a Brodeur. That militates against going after him. But if the dropoff is only marginal (and who can say? this is all necessarily guesswork) and you've gotten, e.g., 5 good years out of him, is it worth it?
It's a really intriguing issue. Luongo is just old enough and his play (in the playoffs at least) has cast just enough doubt so that it's not a no-brainer. But the payoff for taking a chance on him could be very high. If he maintains his level of play for 5-6 years, that should be enough time for the Leafs to position themselves to make a couple of runs at it in a high-parity league. Just look at this year's playoffs.
If you could promise me Luongo was going to perform at the current level until 38 then I would be in favor of the deal. I'm not convinced he will be there in 5 years. For Luongo to work you have to get at least 5 years out of him, and he has to be better than he was last year.... as good as he was in the reg. season 2 years ago. None of this slow start crap.
I don't know how anyone can say for certain he can do that.