Goaltending conundrum
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OldTimeHockey
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Significantly Insignificant said:
Twas a play on the poster's name. My feeble attempt at keeping it light hearted.
Wilfred Kennedy "Bucko" McDonald (October 31, 1914 ? July 22, 1991) was a Canadian professional hockey defenceman and coach as well as lacrosse player, coach, and politician.
Born in Fergus, Ontario, he played for the Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs, and New York Rangers. He won 3 Stanley Cups in his career, in 1936 and 1937 with Detroit and in 1942 with Toronto.
The more I think about it the more I think Burke wants to tank this season. It's the only logical conclusion I can come to. We have weak goaltending, average defense, and below average forwards. We have the same team we had last year only worse in goal. It's a recipe for disaster.
GhostofPotvin29
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How are we worse in goal? Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout, other than Pogge's few games.
GhostofPotvin29
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sickbeast said:
Then why are his stats significantly worse on the same team?
Their stats were almost identical:Potvin29 said:
http://theleafsnation.com/2012/4/24/gustavsson-reimer-and-scrivens-just-the-stats-sir
GhostofPotvin29
New member
sickbeast said:
From the exact same guy, from yesterday:
http://theleafsnation.com/2012/8/2/a-look-at-leafs-goalies-under-ron-wilson
Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
I think we can both agree that both of them have been inconsistent and overall bad goaltenders, though.
You have to agree that without Gus we are at a minimum about the same in goal if you want to say he sucks and that Scrivens will do better. I say we're significantly worse off.
I think we can both agree that both of them have been inconsistent and overall bad goaltenders, though.
You have to agree that without Gus we are at a minimum about the same in goal if you want to say he sucks and that Scrivens will do better. I say we're significantly worse off.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
sickbeast said:Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
Yes I changed my sample size by including an article that looked at Gustavsson versus Leafs goalies since the lockout when my original response to you said the following exactly: "Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout."
To me it makes more sense to look at 2012's stats. Reimer is damaged goods now. He had good numbers before his head injury. As it stands now he is equal to Gus who you say is our worst goalie since the lockout.Potvin29 said:sickbeast said:Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
Yes I changed my sample size by including an article that looked at Gustavsson versus Leafs goalies since the lockout when my original response to you said the following exactly: "Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout."
I'm trying to agree with you but you're not making sense and your stats are misleading IMO. Losing Gus means that the Leafs have lost a large portion of their goaltending talent.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
sickbeast said:To me it makes more sense to look at 2012's stats. Reimer is damaged goods now. He had good numbers before his head injury. As it stands now he is equal to Gus who you say is our worst goalie since the lockout.Potvin29 said:sickbeast said:Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
Yes I changed my sample size by including an article that looked at Gustavsson versus Leafs goalies since the lockout when my original response to you said the following exactly: "Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout."
I'm trying to agree with you but you're not making sense and your stats are misleading IMO. Losing Gus means that the Leafs have lost a large portion of their goaltending talent.
How am I not making sense? I even posted a link to an explanation of what the stats are and how he compares, produced by the exact same website and person that you posted a link to.
Why would I judge them solely on last season and not their overall recent body of work? You don't know Reimer is damaged goods, he could completely recover from his neck issue from last season. Even with that issue affecting his stats, he still outplayed Gustavsson. You still haven't shown your original point, which was that the goaltending is worse than it was last season. At the very least it is the same, and arguably could be better if Reimer returns to form.
Both you and Burke are riverboat gamblers betting on Reimer IMO. At least he will be fired when the Leafs bomb this season. I've had enough of him now.Potvin29 said:sickbeast said:To me it makes more sense to look at 2012's stats. Reimer is damaged goods now. He had good numbers before his head injury. As it stands now he is equal to Gus who you say is our worst goalie since the lockout.Potvin29 said:sickbeast said:Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
Yes I changed my sample size by including an article that looked at Gustavsson versus Leafs goalies since the lockout when my original response to you said the following exactly: "Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout."
I'm trying to agree with you but you're not making sense and your stats are misleading IMO. Losing Gus means that the Leafs have lost a large portion of their goaltending talent.
How am I not making sense? I even posted a link to an explanation of what the stats are and how he compares, produced by the exact same website and person that you posted a link to.
Why would I judge them solely on last season and not their overall recent body of work? You don't know Reimer is damaged goods, he could completely recover from his neck issue from last season. Even with that issue affecting his stats, he still outplayed Gustavsson. You still haven't shown your original point, which was that the goaltending is worse than it was last season. At the very least it is the same, and arguably could be better if Reimer returns to form.
Kin
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Well, I think in a case like Gus' where he's only got bits of three seasons to go on and those three seasons include a very tumultuous rookie season I'm not sure that his record from that year really means much going forward. In general, yeah, you'd rather work with the biggest possible sample size but I think in the case of a younger player you have to heavily weight things towards their most recent season.
And then there's the issue with EVS% being used as the single sole determining statistic. I think it's a compelling number and has some legitimacy but to simply and solely hold it up as the arbiter of a goalie's play strikes me as a little bit misleading.
Although that said I'm not advocating Gus over Reimer. I do think the goaltending would be better with Gus/Reimer than Reimer/Scrivens but not to the point that I'd make a big deal about it.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Nik? said:
When their overall SV%'s are similar, I think looking at ESSV% can be helpful to try and differentiate between the two. Not everyone will agree, but from what I've read on the stats blogs, I've been convinced of its worth.
Kin
Active member
Potvin29 said:
I don't disagree that it can be useful but where I'd disagree is that it's definitive to the point that it can be said with certainty that Reimer "outplayed" Gus or that Gus' "stats" were significantly worse when A) You're really only talking about one stat and B) Some of Gus' stats are better.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Nik? said:
SV% on the PK can be pretty volatile, and can be affected by small sample sizes. Reimer's PK SV% last season at some points was pretty much historically bad. By the end of December, Reimer had faced 82 PK shots an let in 19. So while he was riding a .937 EVSV%, his PK one was .768. Even if he had had a PKSV% that was still well below average of .855 (the number he posted his first NHL season), his overall SV% would have been .918 instead of .901.
I just think his EVSV% consistently being good is a better indicator of him having more success going forward, as PKSV% can vary wildly due to a number of things season-to-season, so if he maintains his EVSV% then I think he'll be good going forward.
Brian Glennie
New member
sickbeast said:To me it makes more sense to look at 2012's stats. Reimer is damaged goods now. He had good numbers before his head injury. As it stands now he is equal to Gus who you say is our worst goalie since the lockout.Potvin29 said:sickbeast said:Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
Yes I changed my sample size by including an article that looked at Gustavsson versus Leafs goalies since the lockout when my original response to you said the following exactly: "Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout."
I'm trying to agree with you but you're not making sense and your stats are misleading IMO. Losing Gus means that the Leafs have lost a large portion of their goaltending talent.
Burke thought he had a piece of the foundation in place when he signed Gus. I remember him selling that to the fans with an awful lot of confidence. I guess plan B was/is to rely on Allaire to put some lipstick on the cochon, that is Toronto's goaltending talent.
Kin
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Ok but the problem there is the tense in which you're using it. Something similar to this debate is the issue of "clutch hitting" in baseball. If you listen to any SABR guy worth their salt they'll say that the ability to hit in the clutch, as a measurable attribute, doesn't exist. That by any measurement a player's numbers in clutch situations will vary from year to year. Now accepting that, it would be silly to say that you should favour player A over player B because "he's better in the clutch" because it varies so much from year to year.
That being said, clutch situations exist. A guy might have a bit of a flukey year and have a bunch of walk-off homers and that might not be predictive of future success but it very much had something to do with his value to the team and it will be reflected in a player's WPA.
So, yeah, if you're a big believer in EVSV% it could be fair to say that Reimer figures to have a better year than Gus next year. It wouldn't, though, be fair to say that Reimer played better than Gus last year. Even if Gus was flukey good on the PK and Reimer was flukey bad, Gus was better at stopping pucks overall. Gus had better numbers than Reimer did last year even if they aren't as good in terms of projecting into next year.
But with all that said let's assume you're right. Lets say that EVSV% is the single best measurement we have of how good a goalie is at stopping pucks even in the past tense. That's fine and all but the percentage of pucks a goalie stops isn't the beginning and end of the position. A goalie also has a big say in how many shots he faces, both by means of playing the puck as well as in his rebound control. This doesn't need to be said but two goalies of equal ability in terms of puck stopping can let in a significantly different number of goals if the one is great playing the puck or freezing the puck. That's why GAA, while obviously heavily subjected to the influence of the team, isn't worthless. It's still a stat that matters to a degree.
Again, I don't have a strong feeling as to the relative merits of Gus vs. Reimer but I think it's wrong to say Reimer outplayed Gus last year or that Reimer had better "numbers". The latter if only because of the use of the plural.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Brian Glennie said:sickbeast said:To me it makes more sense to look at 2012's stats. Reimer is damaged goods now. He had good numbers before his head injury. As it stands now he is equal to Gus who you say is our worst goalie since the lockout.Potvin29 said:sickbeast said:Oh, so since the stats from 2012 don't suit your fancy you change the sample size? :
Yes I changed my sample size by including an article that looked at Gustavsson versus Leafs goalies since the lockout when my original response to you said the following exactly: "Gustavsson was statistically the worst goalie the Leafs have had since the lockout."
I'm trying to agree with you but you're not making sense and your stats are misleading IMO. Losing Gus means that the Leafs have lost a large portion of their goaltending talent.
Burke thought he had a piece of the foundation in place when he signed Gus. I remember him selling that to the fans with an awful lot of confidence. I guess plan B was/is to rely on Allaire to put some lipstick on the cochon, that is Toronto's goaltending talent.
It made sense at the time, especially since goalies tend to develop differently and don't necessarily come from the 1st round all the time. In hindsight maybe it looks foolish, but it made sense to take a chance on a relatively young European goalie with good size. But if you look at it in hindsight for Burke's foolishness in signing him, you have to look at it in hindsight for the fans (myself included) who were excited at his potential too. It didn't work out, sometimes these things happen.