Grabovski - Under the Watchful Eye Of An Angel

[pnjunction]

Near the end of the Game in Six they show Grabo's entire shift where the Bruins scored the winning OT goal.  This, to me, is a microcosm of his play this season in the Leafs end.  He floats around and picks up absolutely no one, which is totally unacceptable as an NHL centerman: http://video.mapleleafs.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=802&id=248513&lang=en&navid=DL|TOR|home

oh no!!!  don't go against the grain here.

Is that so much against the grain anymore?

I've been souring on Grabbo and Kulemin too.  Their offense died, and the line all season was that they are playing defensive roles.  That was OK for a while, but if critical goals are going in while they're on the ice then what good are they at all?

They're probably both here for next season unless Nonis somehow turns dung to diamonds in a trade, but if we get a repeat of this year I say Kulemin walks and Grabbo gets bought out next summer.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

That was OK for a while, but if critical goals are going in while they're on the ice then what good are they at all?

Is the argument that since they are playing defensive minutes no critical goals should be going in when they are on the ice?  Or is there an acceptable level of critical goals?  Because it's going to happen to even the best if they are playing mostly defensive-oriented minutes.

 

[pnjunction]

That was OK for a while, but if critical goals are going in while they're on the ice then what good are they at all?

Is the argument that since they are playing defensive minutes no critical goals should be going in when they are on the ice?  Or is there an acceptable level of critical goals?  Because it's going to happen to even the best if they are playing mostly defensive-oriented minutes.

It's hard to set a quantitative number, but when Grabbo is running around like a chicken with its head cut off and Kulemin is flamingo'ing missed shot blocks while the opposition scores the goals that bury your team...that's pretty weak especially for 8M+ of salary that is dropping an egg offensively.

 

[mr grieves]

With the cap hit that came back with and the need to sign Bernier, three RFAs likely to eat about $10m in cap space, and several wingers needed, it's doubtful the Leafs can afford to bring in any of the UFA centers most say would be acceptable 1Cs without making a mess of the Kessel and Phaneuf re-signings.

So options are, as always, limited. Given all the teeth gnashing over Grabbo's 2012-13 season, I thought I'd try to make the case that he's not at all a bad option to play as the first or second-line center. I think the fairest way to assess Grabbo is to look at his body of work beyond the abbreviated season.

Two charts are below. Both have rankings, and these are Grabbo against other centers in the league (as listed on either behindthenet.ca or NHL.com, so Seguin, for example, is listed).

The first table covers his TTOI (with PP points included). The projected averages for the TTOI stats project the 2012-13 season to 82 games but not the 59-game 2009-10 campaign to 82 (as Grabbo was injured).

And here's Grabbo's scoring stats at ES (using the per-60 adjustments).

I see plenty of reason to be more or less confident that Grabbo will manage at least 50-55 points next season, if in a second-line role. Not only would he have more ice-time and offensive opportunities, the team's upgraded its top-six wingers in the last year.

 

[hockeyfan1]

With the cap hit that came back with and the need to sign Bernier, three RFAs likely to eat about $10m in cap space, and several wingers needed, it's doubtful the Leafs can afford to bring in any of the UFA centers most say would be acceptable 1Cs without making a mess of the Kessel and Phaneuf re-signings.

So options are, as always, limited. Given all the teeth gnashing over Grabbo's 2012-13 season, I thought I'd try to make the case that he's not at all a bad option to play as the first or second-line center. I think the fairest way to assess Grabbo is to look at his body of work beyond the abbreviated season.

Two charts are below. Both have rankings, and these are Grabbo against other centers in the league (as listed on either behindthenet.ca or NHL.com, so Seguin, for example, is listed).

The first table covers his TTOI (with PP points included). The projected averages for the TTOI stats project the 2012-13 season to 82 games but not the 59-game 2009-10 campaign to 82 (as Grabbo was injured).

And here's Grabbo's scoring stats at ES (using the per-60 adjustments).

I see plenty of reason to be more or less confident that Grabbo will manage at least 50-55 points next season, if in a second-line role. Not only would he have more ice-time and offensive opportunities, the team's upgraded its top-six wingers in the last year.

Seems like the more games in which he played, the better his ranking.

 

[Champ Kind]

In my opinion, Grabovski's status with the Leafs next year will be contingent upon what personnel moves Nonis can make.  In this regard, he's not unlike most players.  But I get the feeling that should Weiss be signed reasonably, should Gagner or Stastny be acquired, or should a big salary be obtained on the cheap, Grabovski and his relatively large contract will have to be moved.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

In my opinion, Grabovski's status with the Leafs next year will be contingent upon what personnel moves Nonis can make.  In this regard, he's not unlike most players.  But I get the feeling that should Weiss be signed reasonably, should Gagner or Stastny be acquired, or should a big salary be obtained on the cheap, Grabovski and his relatively large contract will have to be moved.

I agree. In saying that, what is Grabovski worth at this point? We'd be selling low and with his higher contract, might be more difficult to move. He is a center, so they're usually in demand, maybe that helps.

I agree also with Bullfrog, I like Grabo, but if we landed Statsny, it's game over for Mikhail.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

In my opinion, Grabovski's status with the Leafs next year will be contingent upon what personnel moves Nonis can make.  In this regard, he's not unlike most players.  But I get the feeling that should Weiss be signed reasonably, should Gagner or Stastny be acquired, or should a big salary be obtained on the cheap, Grabovski and his relatively Bozak-like contract will have to be moved.

Fixed 

 

[mr grieves]

In my opinion, Grabovski's status with the Leafs next year will be contingent upon what personnel moves Nonis can make.  In this regard, he's not unlike most players.  But I get the feeling that should Weiss be signed reasonably, should Gagner or Stastny be acquired, or should a big salary be obtained on the cheap, Grabovski and his relatively large contract will have to be moved.

I agree. In saying that, what is Grabovski worth at this point? We'd be selling low and with his higher contract, might be more difficult to move. He is a center, so they're usually in demand, maybe that helps.

I agree also with Bullfrog, I like Grabo, but if we landed Statsny, it's game over for Mikhail.

Well, yes. Agreed. I prefer Stastny to Grabbo, but I was thinking about Grabbo's likeliness to return to form/ continue progressing should the team not be able to land such a player...

But even if they could, I'm not sure I'd do it until later in the season. With Grabbo and Kadri around, acquiring Stastny surely would create a variation on the Bozak problem -- a $5.5m salary on the third line, trying to produce points alongside Kuli and McClement -- which would make that contract impossible to move.

I think the 2013-14 season (its start anyway) would probably be better spent seeing how Grabbo & Kadri handle top-2 center minutes. Best case Grabbo proves last season a fluke and himself part of the core. Worst case you know the buy-out is the only way to lose the contract. Most likely case he shows himself a very good top-6 center on a decent contact, who can be moved if an upgrade is found.

 

[Corn Flake]

In my opinion, Grabovski's status with the Leafs next year will be contingent upon what personnel moves Nonis can make.  In this regard, he's not unlike most players.  But I get the feeling that should Weiss be signed reasonably, should Gagner or Stastny be acquired, or should a big salary be obtained on the cheap, Grabovski and his relatively large contract will have to be moved.

I agree. In saying that, what is Grabovski worth at this point? We'd be selling low and with his higher contract, might be more difficult to move. He is a center, so they're usually in demand, maybe that helps.

I agree also with Bullfrog, I like Grabo, but if we landed Statsny, it's game over for Mikhail.

Grabbo's stomach issues could be what is holding him back from returning to form, but could also prevent a trade from happening too. I think he should be moved if possible, but unlikely at this point. Probably have to start the season with him, see if he can cut it and go from there. 

Acquiring Stastny shouldn't be contingent on Grabbo's play. Stastny replaces Bozak.  Kadri is fine as the #2/3 for another year.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

But even if they could, I'm not sure I'd do it until later in the season. With Grabbo and Kadri around, acquiring Stastny surely would create a variation on the Bozak problem -- a $5.5m salary on the third line, trying to produce points alongside Kuli and McClement -- which would make that contract impossible to move.

There's a whole lot that goes into these things, but mostly what's available and what other teams want, so it's hard to predict. I was more wondering what his actual value is right now, not whether we were going to trade him or not.

If I could wave a wand and get what I would want out the names out there right now, it would be Statsny, Kadri, Bozak and McClement down the middle. But of course that would be difficult, however I don't think Bozak is going to get this ridiculous 5.5 million AAV that his agent is after.

 

[mr grieves]

Acquiring Stastny shouldn't be contingent on Grabbo's play. Stastny replaces Bozak.  Kadri is fine as the #2/3 for another year.

Not contingent on, no. Just saying that acquiring Stastny will make it harder for the contract you don't want to play itself out of town in a way that sees something come back. A season like Grabbo's first four in Toronto could be converted into something useful, but a season like the last one ends in a compliance buyout.

Anyhow, in a perfect world, Stastny replaces Bozak. In our world as presently constituted, Bozak's replaced by Grabovski or Kadri for now -- unless Nonis chases a UFA.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Grabbo's stomach issues could be what is holding him back from returning to form, but could also prevent a trade from happening too. I think he should be moved if possible, but unlikely at this point. Probably have to start the season with him, see if he can cut it and go from there. 

Yes, maybe this illness is worse than we thought, however nobody is talking about it like it's a problem, at least what we know anyhow. The only way I see Nonis really trying to trade him, is if he has another deal for a big piece like the one we're talking about. Salary wise, I think he'd have to trade Grabbo, if Statsny came here, or he may not be able to sign Kessel.

 

[Corn Flake]

I just have to say that Weiss feels lot like the Tim Connolly situation.  I could be very wrong but I don't think it would end well.  More to do with injuries than between the ears though.

 

[Tigger]

Acquiring Stastny shouldn't be contingent on Grabbo's play. Stastny replaces Bozak.  Kadri is fine as the #2/3 for another year.

Not contingent on, no. Just saying that acquiring Stastny will make it harder for the contract you don't want to play itself out of town in a way that sees something come back. A season like Grabbo's first four in Toronto could be converted into something useful, but a season like the last one ends in a compliance buyout.

Anyhow, in a perfect world, Stastny replaces Bozak. In our world as presently constituted, Bozak's replaced by Grabovski or Kadri for now -- unless Nonis chases a UFA.

I don't know if it's perfect or not but if it boils down to a choice between Grabbo or Bozak for a similar cap hit, yeah, it's Grabbo all day long.

 

[mr grieves]

Acquiring Stastny shouldn't be contingent on Grabbo's play. Stastny replaces Bozak.  Kadri is fine as the #2/3 for another year.

Not contingent on, no. Just saying that acquiring Stastny will make it harder for the contract you don't want to play itself out of town in a way that sees something come back. A season like Grabbo's first four in Toronto could be converted into something useful, but a season like the last one ends in a compliance buyout.

Anyhow, in a perfect world, Stastny replaces Bozak. In our world as presently constituted, Bozak's replaced by Grabovski or Kadri for now -- unless Nonis chases a UFA.

I don't know if it's perfect or not but if it boils down to a choice between Grabbo or Bozak for a similar cap hit, yeah, it's Grabbo all day long.

Agreed. But I don't think it's Bozak vs. Grabbo; if there were $5.5m for Bozak, he would've been signed by now.

I think it's Grabbo vs. the UFA options, who are older, will likely want as much (if not more) money and longer terms. But they have bodies of work that are more impressive.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Evening chaps.

Just wondering about whether this would be possible if management decided to grt rid of Grabovski.

Rather than a buy out, would there be any possibility of trading Grabbo and cap space for a prospect/pick? So effectively the Leafs retain half of his salary for a few years but get some sort of asset back?

 

[Zee]

Evening chaps.

Just wondering about whether this would be possible if management decided to grt rid of Grabovski.

Rather than a buy out, would there be any possibility of trading Grabbo and cap space for a prospect/pick? So effectively the Leafs retain half of his salary for a few years but get some sort of asset back?

Anything's possible.  This guess is as good as any.

 

[freer]

Evening chaps.

Just wondering about whether this would be possible if management decided to grt rid of Grabovski.

Rather than a buy out, would there be any possibility of trading Grabbo and cap space for a prospect/pick? So effectively the Leafs retain half of his salary for a few years but get some sort of asset back?

that almost sounds like a buy out with rewards I like it

 

[Kin]

I don't think Grabo's value has fallen so drastically that you couldn't just trade him straight up. Regardless, any asset the Leafs would get coming back in such a trade would have to be more valuable than the cap space they'd be eating. If you're of the opinion that the Leafs would have to include money into any Grabo trade than it's hard for me to see a balance where the Leafs would eat enough of Grabo's salary to make another team want to throw in a considerable asset for him but still not have that cap space be the greater asset in which case a buyout would be preferable.

All that said though I don't think they should trade Grabo.