Holland placed on waivers, signs contract [1 year, $1.3mil AAV]

[CarltonTheBear]

What happens to Holland's contract status if he clears?  It cancels the arbitration hearing?

No, changes nothing. Just potential gives the Leafs more leverage.

 

[herman]

Bottom six options going into the season:
Peter Holland
Josh Leivo
Matt Martin
Byron Froese
Colin Greening
Brooks Laich
Leo Komarov (sort of)
Joffrey Lupul (no idea)
Milan Michalek
Zach Hyman (waiver exempt)
Kerby Rychel (waiver exempt)
Nikita Soshnikov (waiver exempt)

Aside from the waiver exempt guys, and the ones likely to play top 6 muckers, and considering our big 3 rookies will likely get sheltered 3rd line minutes, there are only like 2-3 spots to contend for. I personally wouldn't pick Holland to be the odd one out of that list, but his circumstances (arbitration) are against him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I just still think that there's no way a team does this if they haven't more or less decided that they could take or leave a player. Matthews pushes him down the depth chart(maybe he's the #5 C right now? Maybe 4/5 with Laich?) and I think a fair case could be made that his numbers the last few years are just a result of being a warm body.

Yeah I do think that "they're trying to dump him" is a more logical reason for this than "they're trying to prove a point". TLN recently looked at comparables for his next contract and came up with a projected number of about $2.2mil. I don't mind Holland but that's a shade higher than I would like (particularly since there's already a few other contracts that are a shade higher than I would like). And I'm pretty sure if that's the number he's awarded the Leafs can't walk away from it.

 

[Kin]

Bottom six options going into the season:
Peter Holland
Josh Leivo
Matt Martin
Byron Froese
Colin Greening
Brooks Laich
Leo Komarov (sort of)
Joffrey Lupul (no idea)
Milan Michalek
Zach Hyman (waiver exempt)
Kerby Rychel (waiver exempt)
Nikita Soshnikov (waiver exempt)

Aside from the waiver exempt guys, and the ones likely to play top 6 muckers, and considering our big 3 rookies will likely get sheltered 3rd line minutes, there are only like 2-3 spots to contend for. I personally wouldn't pick Holland to be the odd one out of that list, but his circumstances (arbitration) are against him.

As it stands right now it's safe to assume that there are 7 guys who'll be in the line-up every night regardless:

Kadri
JVR
Komarov
Bozak
Matthews
Nylander
Martin

So that leaves 5 lineup spots and a couple press box spots. Marner is pretty close to being a lock, I'd think, for one of them. Then you have to figure there are a couple of AHL guys who should at least be in the conversation(Brown, Leipsic, Gauthier). It's really hard to see where you go with Holland there. Of the six youngish guys in Sosh, Hyman, Reichel and the three I just mentioned I think Holland is maybe the safest pick but this is a lineup with a lot of safe choices already.

 

[Zee]

Bottom six options going into the season:
Peter Holland
Josh Leivo
Matt Martin
Byron Froese
Colin Greening
Brooks Laich
Leo Komarov (sort of)
Joffrey Lupul (no idea)
Milan Michalek
Zach Hyman (waiver exempt)
Kerby Rychel (waiver exempt)
Nikita Soshnikov (waiver exempt)

Aside from the waiver exempt guys, and the ones likely to play top 6 muckers, and considering our big 3 rookies will likely get sheltered 3rd line minutes, there are only like 2-3 spots to contend for. I personally wouldn't pick Holland to be the odd one out of that list, but his circumstances (arbitration) are against him.

There the hell is Lupul anyway? I don't think I've heard/seen an interview with him in at least 6 months.

 

[TBLeafer]

Bottom six options going into the season:
Peter Holland
Josh Leivo
Matt Martin
Byron Froese
Colin Greening
Brooks Laich
Leo Komarov (sort of)
Joffrey Lupul (no idea)
Milan Michalek
Zach Hyman (waiver exempt)
Kerby Rychel (waiver exempt)
Nikita Soshnikov (waiver exempt)

Aside from the waiver exempt guys, and the ones likely to play top 6 muckers, and considering our big 3 rookies will likely get sheltered 3rd line minutes, there are only like 2-3 spots to contend for. I personally wouldn't pick Holland to be the odd one out of that list, but his circumstances (arbitration) are against him.

So, shoulda just taken his QO and ran with it perhaps?  You see Connor Brown in a top six role then?

 

[Deebo]

Bottom six options going into the season:
Peter Holland
Josh Leivo
Matt Martin
Byron Froese
Colin Greening
Brooks Laich
Leo Komarov (sort of)
Joffrey Lupul (no idea)
Milan Michalek
Zach Hyman (waiver exempt)
Kerby Rychel (waiver exempt)
Nikita Soshnikov (waiver exempt)

Aside from the waiver exempt guys, and the ones likely to play top 6 muckers, and considering our big 3 rookies will likely get sheltered 3rd line minutes, there are only like 2-3 spots to contend for. I personally wouldn't pick Holland to be the odd one out of that list, but his circumstances (arbitration) are against him.

As it stands right now it's safe to assume that there are 7 guys who'll be in the line-up every night regardless:

Kadri
JVR
Komarov
Bozak
Matthews
Nylander
Martin

So that leaves 5 lineup spots and a couple press box spots. Marner is pretty close to being a lock, I'd think, for one of them. Then you have to figure there are a couple of AHL guys who should at least be in the conversation(Brown, Leipsic, Gauthier). It's really hard to see where you go with Holland there. Of the six youngish guys in Sosh, Hyman, Reichel and the three I just mentioned I think Holland is maybe the safest pick but this is a lineup with a lot of safe choices already.

Babcock seems to like Laich, I think he'll be in the line up most nights too.

 

[Kin]

Babcock seems to like Laich, I think he'll be in the line up most nights too.

Yeah, he was close to being a lock too. Again, if it weren't for the sheer amount of bodies I'd have made him one. We haven't even brought up the possibility of someone like Kapanen, a former first round pick who's now 20 years old, making the team.

 

[herman]

As it stands right now it's safe to assume that there are 7 guys who'll be in the line-up every night regardless:

Kadri
JVR
Komarov
Bozak
Matthews
Nylander
Martin

So that leaves 5 lineup spots and a couple press box spots. Marner is pretty close to being a lock, I'd think, for one of them. Then you have to figure there are a couple of AHL guys who should at least be in the conversation(Brown, Leipsic, Gauthier). It's really hard to see where you go with Holland there. Of the six youngish guys in Sosh, Hyman, Reichel and the three I just mentioned I think Holland is maybe the safest pick but this is a lineup with a lot of safe choices already.

Do you think we'll be rid of Lupul, Laich, Greening, and Michalek, or would we be better served keeping them on the Leafs to pump and dump (I don't want them other than maybe Laich in the pressbox)?

With the recent push for veteran depth, I don't have high hopes for seeing Hyman, Soshnikov, Brown, Leipsic, or even Leivo until after injuries hit, unless they blow everyone else out of the water at camp. Gauthier and Kapanen seem to be locks for the AHL to me, along with Lindberg and Johnson.

 

[herman]

Where the hell is Lupul anyway? I don't think I've heard/seen an interview with him in at least 6 months.

Last I saw, he surfaced at Coachella.

 

[Kin]

Do you think we'll be rid of Lupul, Laich, Greening, and Michalek, or would we be better served keeping them on the Leafs to pump and dump (I don't want them other than maybe Laich in the pressbox)?

With the recent push for veteran depth, I don't have high hopes for seeing Hyman, Soshnikov, Brown, Leipsic, or even Leivo until after injuries hit, unless they blow everyone else out of the water at camp. Gauthier and Kapanen seem to be locks for the AHL to me, along with Lindberg and Johnson.

I legitimately don't know. I suspect you're right that we'll see a pretty safe amount of veterans to act as a buffer for the high profile rookies but like you say you'd like to think that of the young guys who aren't locks there's at least an open mind of allowing for the possibility that they blow the socks off at camp and earn a spot.

 

[herman]

Holland played at a 34-point pace last season while playing just ~14 mins a night. Would have been good for sixth among forwards.
? Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler)

I have him over Greening, Michalek, Laich, Froese, Leivo, Martin in my mental depth chart because I favour versatility and Holland's speed + skill + size mix.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah I do think that "they're trying to dump him" is a more logical reason for this than "they're trying to prove a point". TLN recently looked at comparables for his next contract and came up with a projected number of about $2.2mil. I don't mind Holland but that's a shade higher than I would like (particularly since there's already a few other contracts that are a shade higher than I would like). And I'm pretty sure if that's the number he's awarded the Leafs can't walk away from it.

I believe $2.5M in the threshold for walking away, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Holland be awarded a contract in that area. If he comes in below, the Leafs would need to buy him out to escape the contract.

 

[TBLeafer]

Gotta wonder what Corrado and Marincin are thinking right about now.

 

[Deebo]

Yeah I do think that "they're trying to dump him" is a more logical reason for this than "they're trying to prove a point". TLN recently looked at comparables for his next contract and came up with a projected number of about $2.2mil. I don't mind Holland but that's a shade higher than I would like (particularly since there's already a few other contracts that are a shade higher than I would like). And I'm pretty sure if that's the number he's awarded the Leafs can't walk away from it.

I believe $2.5M in the threshold for walking away, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Holland be awarded a contract in that area. If he comes in below, the Leafs would need to buy him out to escape the contract.

It's 3.5M or more to walk away from player elected arbitration.

2.5M seems pretty high for him to be awarded, who would be the comparables for him to get something in htat area 2.5M? If they thought he was going to be awarded anywhere near that, not qualifying him might have been the better option.

 

[bustaheims]

2.5M seems pretty high for him to be awarded, who would be the comparables for him to get something in htat area 2.5M? If they thought he was going to be awarded anywhere near that, not qualifying him might have been the better option.

It's a little higher than some comparables, but guys like Raffl, Jimmy Hayes, and Marcus Foligno come in just short of $2.5M with similar production. Yakupov is at exactly $2.5M with 2 seasons of comparable production before his current contract. While it might be at the high-end, depending on what Holland and the Leafs submit as offers, $2.5M is definitely in the range of what Holland is likely to get through arbitration.

 

[Deebo]

2.5M seems pretty high for him to be awarded, who would be the comparables for him to get something in htat area 2.5M? If they thought he was going to be awarded anywhere near that, not qualifying him might have been the better option.

It's a little higher than some comparables, but guys like Raffl, Jimmy Hayes, and Marcus Foligno come in just short of $2.5M with similar production. Yakupov is at exactly $2.5M with 2 seasons of comparable production before his current contract. While it might be at the high-end, depending on what Holland and the Leafs submit as offers, $2.5M is definitely in the range of what Holland is likely to get through arbitration.

If that's the case he probably won't get claimed and they really shouldn't have qualified him. I'd guess the Leafs will elect for a one-year deal, so at least they won't be stuck with him for too long.

 

[sickbeast]

This is a real bone headed move IMO and it will come back to haunt the Leafs down the line.  I guarantee he will be claimed by someone.

 

[Tigger]

Hard to say, they may have believed they could get a deal done without Holland going all the way to arbitration.

 

[TML fan]

I hope he gets claimed.