Holzer Extended

[Kin]

All that being said it's pretty stunning that people would take issue with this contract, it in no way shape or form handcuffs the team and worst case scenario it guarantees Holzer some decent cash in the AHL for being a good soldier and not moaning about lack of opportunity over the years.

I agree. I don't have an issue with it. Best I can do, if I were playing Devil's Advocate, might be that some people might find it a bit hard to grasp that playing 15 ok NHL games could earn someone a guaranteed 1.5 million or whatever it is but there's only so much you can say about that, I suppose.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Sorry, am I missing something?  While certainly I'd agree Holzer is not yet the second coming of Adam Foote, I think he's played really, really well.  Great first pass, skates well, big body (though he should use it more) and has chipped in with a bit of offense.  No issue with this deal, or with the player, at all, and I'm not sure he's nearly the first of the six starters to be moved or sent down should a better option arise.

From what I understand the possession stats show the Leafs get heavily outshot when he is on the ice.

 

[Corn Flake]

All that being said it's pretty stunning that people would take issue with this contract, it in no way shape or form handcuffs the team and worst case scenario it guarantees Holzer some decent cash in the AHL for being a good soldier and not moaning about lack of opportunity over the years.

I agree. I don't have an issue with it. Best I can do, if I were playing Devil's Advocate, might be that some people might find it a bit hard to grasp that playing 15 ok NHL games could earn someone a guaranteed 1.5 million or whatever it is but there's only so much you can say about that, I suppose.

Could be more of a case of the team striking early to get him on a good rate vs. if he keeps playing well on the top pairing, his value is going to go up quickly. 

IMO, his agent kind of jumped too early. if he finishes the year in that role, Leafs make playoffs and he plays good there too, he probably gets double.

 

[Corn Flake]

Sorry, am I missing something?  While certainly I'd agree Holzer is not yet the second coming of Adam Foote, I think he's played really, really well.  Great first pass, skates well, big body (though he should use it more) and has chipped in with a bit of offense.  No issue with this deal, or with the player, at all, and I'm not sure he's nearly the first of the six starters to be moved or sent down should a better option arise.

From what I understand the possession stats show the Leafs get heavily outshot when he is on the ice.

Even though he's on the ice vs. the top competition on the other team since paired with Phaneuf?  I would expect he would face more shots... and carlyle's system is geared towards allowing shots vs. scoring chances.

I have such a hard time looking at those stats without context like that.

 

[Kin]

IMO, his agent kind of jumped too early. if he finishes the year in that role, Leafs make playoffs and he plays good there too, he probably gets double.

Maybe. I suppose the flipside to that though is that given that there might be some interest in bringing up Gardiner at some point someone on the blue line might find themselves squeezed out into the press box and then they'd have very little leverage at the end of the year. Anyways, I don't begrudge him the money. I just don't know what he can be yet.

 

[Corn Flake]

It should be noted he was already on a one-way deal, and this is a $200K raise from what he is making today, $325K in the 2nd year.  So he certainly wasn't getting a two-way contract this time around.

The raise is quite modest. Even though its only 15 games I think he's shown he can at least play at this level.. to what degree we will see with time.  So far so good though, IMO.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Sorry, am I missing something?  While certainly I'd agree Holzer is not yet the second coming of Adam Foote, I think he's played really, really well.  Great first pass, skates well, big body (though he should use it more) and has chipped in with a bit of offense.  No issue with this deal, or with the player, at all, and I'm not sure he's nearly the first of the six starters to be moved or sent down should a better option arise.

From what I understand the possession stats show the Leafs get heavily outshot when he is on the ice.

Even though he's on the ice vs. the top competition on the other team since paired with Phaneuf?  I would expect he would face more shots... and carlyle's system is geared towards allowing shots vs. scoring chances.

I have such a hard time looking at those stats without context like that.

Well his is pretty significantly worse than anyone else by those metrics.

Also, the advanced stats are like any of the other traditional stats - no one says look at them without context.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Yup, Holzer is weaker than Kostka and Kostka is weaker than Gunnarsson when paired with Phaneuf, all facing essentially the same level of opponent.

Phaneuf and Gunnarsson paired together match opposing teams best lines in terms of shots given/allowed on a 1 for 1 basis, with Kostka it's lower and with Holzer lower again.

 

[Corn Flake]

Sorry, am I missing something?  While certainly I'd agree Holzer is not yet the second coming of Adam Foote, I think he's played really, really well.  Great first pass, skates well, big body (though he should use it more) and has chipped in with a bit of offense.  No issue with this deal, or with the player, at all, and I'm not sure he's nearly the first of the six starters to be moved or sent down should a better option arise.

From what I understand the possession stats show the Leafs get heavily outshot when he is on the ice.

Even though he's on the ice vs. the top competition on the other team since paired with Phaneuf?  I would expect he would face more shots... and carlyle's system is geared towards allowing shots vs. scoring chances.

I have such a hard time looking at those stats without context like that.

Well his is pretty significantly worse than anyone else by those metrics.

Also, the advanced stats are like any of the other traditional stats - no one says look at them without context.

Actually I have run into quite a few people try to argue they don't need context, becasue they are numbers. 

Are his numbers worse than Phaneuf's by much? I'd be interested to see what they look like since he was paired with Dion, out of curiosity.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

They do appear quite a bit worse.  Obviously they're not going to be very good playing the toughest minutes, but it does stick out: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=TOR&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

But he probably shouldn't be playing those minutes so I can't really fault him, and I also don't really agree with the criticism of the signing.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think the criticism has been directed at his contract, it just provides a good opportunity to point out he hasn't really been fantastic this season. Like Potvin says, his possesion numbers are pretty rough. He shouldn't be on the top pairing, but that's obviously not something he can control.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Cody Franson is going to get paid if he keeps up his current level of play, he's tearing it up statistically.

 

[Corn Flake]

They do appear quite a bit worse.  Obviously they're not going to be very good playing the toughest minutes, but it does stick out: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=TOR&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

But he probably shouldn't be playing those minutes so I can't really fault him, and I also don't really agree with the criticism of the signing.

So that includes some of his early games as well which were pretty bad.  He was far better in the second 10 after the first 5 for sure.  But I hear you.

one fancy stats question for you.. who compiles those?  I know Stats Inc has an army of staff who do it for the league and other official sites and they charge piles of money to use them... is this some team of guys who just do this for fun?  I have found inaccuracies before in some of their basic stats which make me wonder about the others.. ie: Kadri's stats a week ago showed only 1 goal on the year for 20GP.

 

[Zee]

Cody Franson is going to get paid if he keeps up his current level of play, he's tearing it up statistically.

He's an RFA so he won't cash in to huge money.  I'm hoping the Leafs can keep him in check similar to what the Habs did with PK.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

They do appear quite a bit worse.  Obviously they're not going to be very good playing the toughest minutes, but it does stick out: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=TOR&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

But he probably shouldn't be playing those minutes so I can't really fault him, and I also don't really agree with the criticism of the signing.

So that includes some of his early games as well which were pretty bad.  He was far better in the second 10 after the first 5 for sure.  But I hear you.

one fancy stats question for you.. who compiles those?  I know Stats Inc has an army of staff who do it for the league and other official sites and they charge piles of money to use them... is this some team of guys who just do this for fun?  I have found inaccuracies before in some of their basic stats which make me wonder about the others.. ie: Kadri's stats a week ago showed only 1 goal on the year for 20GP.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think Gabriel Desjardins (the site creator) tracks everything using everything available that the NHL publishes, but I'd have to try to ask some of them on Twitter to be sure.

Re: Kadri - did he only have one 5 on 5 goal at the time you checked?  I know he put up a bunch of PP goals early on, compared to even strength.  It defaults to 5 on 5 I think.

EDIT: Fixed quote

 

[Corn Flake]

Cody Franson is going to get paid if he keeps up his current level of play, he's tearing it up statistically.

He's an RFA so he won't cash in to huge money.  I'm hoping the Leafs can keep him in check similar to what the Habs did with PK.

I don't think it's that simple with Franson. 

a: next contract is his 4th.  Subban is only on his 2nd. I'm guessing Franson is arbitration eligible this summer. 

b: in 2 years, Franson is eligible for UFA at 27 (correct me if I'm wrong here but fairly sure) so there's that challenge... do you sign him for 2 years and have him up against UFA or do you go for more but it will cost more money?

He's got a lot going for him this year to get a pretty good raise. He was alerady being paid pretty well for a guy who couldn't crack the lineup not long ago, so now that he appears to be a regular, and the top point getter on defense, what is he worth?

 

[Zee]

Cody Franson is going to get paid if he keeps up his current level of play, he's tearing it up statistically.

He's an RFA so he won't cash in to huge money.  I'm hoping the Leafs can keep him in check similar to what the Habs did with PK.

I don't think it's that simple with Franson. 

a: next contract is his 4th.  Subban is only on his 2nd. I'm guessing Franson is arbitration eligible this summer. 

b: in 2 years, Franson is eligible for UFA at 27 (correct me if I'm wrong here but fairly sure) so there's that challenge... do you sign him for 2 years and have him up against UFA or do you go for more but it will cost more money?

He's got a lot going for him this year to get a pretty good raise. He was alerady being paid pretty well for a guy who couldn't crack the lineup not long ago, so now that he appears to be a regular, and the top point getter on defense, what is he worth?

The Leafs also have Gardiner in the fold who brings the same or more than Franson if he plays like he did last season, and Rielly in the system.  I don't think Franson is unreplaceable, he's played well no doubt, but I don't think he'll command even as much as PK who is viewed as a top-pairing offensive d-man.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If Franson continues at or around his current clip he will finish with 32 points in a season where he played 45 games or 58 points over an 82 game season.

Hw would also at the same time be around a plus 20 or again projected over a full 82 games plus 36.

If you think that won't net him a big raise to at least the Subban ball park given it's his fourth contract, then you're kidding yourself.

Now whether the Leafs give him the money or move him based on the fact they have the others you mentioned in the system, the fact remains he is scheduled for a good raise if he even comes close to mainlining his current level of play.

 

[pnjunction]

Yeah if you look at Franson's production right now he is up there with a bunch of guys making 3.5-4.5 million (and also some overpaid guys make 6M but that's not relevant).

His current rate of production is higher than what Subban had put forth previously that got him almost 3M after hard negotations. (Subban is performing even higher than Franson now but that's not relevant either.)

The points I see against Franson getting ~4M are 1) it's an anomalous year for him so far, it could be a one-time thing and 2) you could still say he is defensively suspect compared to those 4M guys. His +9 might say otherwise but you could say the whole team is improved in that area, thanks to team play and/or goaltending, or that again it is an anamolous level of performance for him.

I think in the end we might see a 2 year 2.5-3M deal similar to Subban's, which I think would reflect that he has earned a decent raise but it remains unproven whether he can deliver that level of performance consistently.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I think Holzer's deal is a good one for the Leafs. I don't see him regressing in the next two years, only getting better. He's not very refined yet, but I can see the makings of a pretty decent stay at home guy in the near future.

It might be best to have him on the bottom pairing right now though. It would be nice to get a nugget from Carlyle on this choice.