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Hunwick done for the season

CarltonTheBear

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[tweet]707265703733280768[/tweet]

Shucks. Babcock says that Marincin will get a long look on the top line with Rielly. They were good together last time Hunwick was out.

Loov's been called up on an emergency basis to replace him.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
[tweet]707265703733280768[/tweet]

Shucks. Babcock says that Marincin will get a long look on the top line with Rielly. They were good together last time Hunwick was out.

Lou:  Hey Matt, I need to talk to you
Matt: Uh, okay...
Lou:  Over here, behind the dumpster...
 
This will be a really good opportunity to see how Rielly's numbers look without Hunwick playing alongside him. The small samples we have this season look pretty good for him, but they're still small samples.

With Hunwick his CF/60, CA/60, and CF% look like: 56.10, 61.24, 47.8%
With Marincin his CF/60, CA/60, and CF% look like: 65.36, 47.66, 57.8%

Again, that's in 735:48 minutes with Hunwick vs. 88:08 with Marincin. But now we'll get to see that number go up.
 
Wow. I was wondering who was hurt when Loov was called up earlier today.

If Grabner and Greening also go down with 'surgery' in the next few weeks, I'll be even more suspicious.
 
This makes the team so much worse.  I thought that when they played Tampa last week, Marincin had a really rough game, it's insane that he is being considered top pairing.  Unfortunately, our full-on tank takes place in the first year that last place isn't guaranteed at least the 2nd overall pick.  If we end up selecting 4th, I will barf.
 
PrestigeWorldwide said:
This makes the team so much worse.  I thought that when they played Tampa last week, Marincin had a really rough game, it's insane that he is being considered top pairing.  Unfortunately, our full-on tank takes place in the first year that last place isn't guaranteed at least the 2nd overall pick.  If we end up selecting 4th, I will barf.

It seems like you're saying because you thought this particular game Marincin was poor that he shouldn't be considered for top pairing?  That's how I read that anyway.

There's a good portion of Leafs fans who think Marincin is an upgrade on Hunwick defensively.  The stats seem to indicate he limits shot attempts against well.  Whether that translates to tougher minutes I can't say, but I don't think there's anything yet to say that he would be any worse than Hunwick on a top pairing with Rielly.
 
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/martin-marincin-top-pair-defenceman-leafs/

Emmanuel Perry, the developer behind the new hockey statistical website Corsica.Hockey has logged all of the Highlight Reel (HL) events over the past three years using the NHL?s game files and it paints an interesting picture of who the eye test should really be celebrating on offence (HLF) and who it should be blaming on defence (HLA).

Two things become clear when we look at these events as rates: 1) Marincin should not be considered an offensive dynamo, which makes sense, and 2) His perceived failures via the eye test on defence are grossly disproportionate to his actual negative involvement.

[...]

Marincin is only on the ice for 12.12 Highlight Reel Events Against his team for every 60 minutes he is on the ice. Similar defenders by this measure would be Brian Campbell (11.73 HLA60), Hampus Lindholm (11.86 HLA60), Colton Parayko (11.89 HLA60), Sami Vatanen (12.14 HLA60), Seth Jones (12.15 HLA60), and Mark Giordano (12.20 HLA60). Not exactly skaters who anyone would describe as poor on defence.

There is actually very little concrete evidence to support the idea Marincin gives up a wildly disproportionate number of top end scoring chances to the opposition. If we look at 5v5 shot attempt and goal-based metrics for this season a very similar picture is painted of Marincin being an elite defensive defender who makes a positive impact by suppressing shot attempts against.

Hard to quote the tables with the telling numbers. Basically, Marincin is better than you remember because your brain is biased.
 
More Martin Marincin musings:
http://babcockbling.com/2016/03/11/marincin-not-terrible-should-benefit-from-new-pairing/

martin-marincin-corsi-graph.png


Marincin?s specialty is his defensive play, most notably, his shot suppression. As shown in the graph above, Marincin is second on the Maple Leafs in 5v5 CA60 (48.57) behind only Frankie Corrado (Who?s corsi numbers are ridiculous, possibly due to sample size). Surprisingly, Marincin?s shot generation numbers are pretty good as well. Once again behind only Corrado, with an impressive 61.56 per 60. How is his Corsi For so high, considering that Marincin drives almost no offense himself (0 G, 3 A this season)? Likely because when Marincin is on the ice, the Leafs spend less time in the defensive zone, giving them more time to generate shots.

[...]

dashboard-11.png

Synergy!
 
Where are we at in terms of placing value in possession stats as a measurement of a defenseman's contribution?
 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/martin-marincin-the-maple-leafs-player-who-gets-in-the-way/article29255340/

has taken some time, but his coaches and teammates are beginning to see what Marincin does well ? and it is unique.

?He?s got a good stick,? head coach Mike Babcock said. ?He?s a real good skater. Still got to work on his shot. But he can pass the puck, and he?s got good hockey sense.?

?He?s got a great reach,? added rookie Connor Carrick, who has played more with Marincin than any other Leafs defenceman since joining the team. ?He?s a big body. He tries and keeps his game simple for the other four guys around him. That really helps you anticipate where the pucks going because he?s predictable ? in a good way.?

[...]

He is also the kind of player ? unwanted and potentially underrated ? that Leafs management are scouring the league for, a cheap bet that can do some unsexy things well and provide enough value to outweigh the negatives.

It?s a mindset that?s not all that different from the Moneyball push in baseball more than 10 years ago for players that could get on base. Only, in this case, what Marincin does well is simply sort of get in the way.

Especially as the other team is trying to get into the Leafs zone.

?Stick detail right around the defensive blueline is huge,? Carrick explained. ?You?ve got to be able to create some disruption and create some panic in the offensive player. That?s what you?re always going for. If you don?t get a piece of the puck, at least try to make them move it before they?re 100-per-cent clear on what they?re trying to do.

?The idea is you have such great gap up the entire length of the ice that you are in the attacking player?s mind the entire time. Because this whole league knows you?re always a turnover away from a puck in your own net. That?s what you?re trying to create. The fear.

?You?ve got to create that fear of a turnover in them. If not an actual turnover itself. With his size and his reach, he?s able to do that a little bit sooner than a smaller guy.?

The impact that has on possession is dramatic. Teams are often forced to dump the puck into the zone when Marincin is on the ice, which ultimately allows the Leafs to recover the puck and get it back into the offensive end.

On the season, Marincin is at 55-per-cent possession, which is 11th among defencemen who have been full-time NHLers. (Drew Doughty, of the L.A. Kings, is first.) While some might assume that has to do with Marincin?s limited role much of the season, the reality is his numbers are similar since he was elevated into big minutes.

 

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