John Tavares is a Maple Leaf

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

I tried to look at to what extent things would really get sticky for the Leafs before Marleau's contract comes off the book and for the Leafs to really be in trouble I think a few things have to happen:

1. They re-sign Gardiner
2. They can't move Martin
3. The five young guys who need to be re-signed get, combined, in excess of 35 million combined.
4. There's almost no cap growth


I looked at things in sort of a worst case scenario way to get that 35 million by the way. My breakdown was 11.5 for Matthews, 8.5 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, 5 for Kapanen and 3 for Johnsson. If you can whittle that down at all the Leafs will be fine for the most part and if you can't then it's really just the one tough year until Marleau's contract comes off the books at which point between cap growth and that expiring deal they'll have 10 million or so to play with/re-sign guys like Dermott.

The Leafs will definitely have to make some hard decisions 4 or 5 years down the line but realistically those decisions will be about guys like Kadri more than any of their top flight guys.

This post has me considering bigamy.

 

[mr grieves]

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

I tried to look at to what extent things would really get sticky for the Leafs before Marleau's contract comes off the book and for the Leafs to really be in trouble I think a few things have to happen:

1. They re-sign Gardiner
2. They can't move Martin
3. The five young guys who need to be re-signed get, combined, in excess of 35 million combined.
4. There's almost no cap growth


I looked at things in sort of a worst case scenario way to get that 35 million by the way. My breakdown was 11.5 for Matthews, 8.5 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, 5 for Kapanen and 3 for Johnsson. If you can whittle that down at all the Leafs will be fine for the most part and if you can't then it's really just the one tough year until Marleau's contract comes off the books at which point between cap growth and that expiring deal they'll have 10 million or so to play with/re-sign guys like Dermott.

The Leafs will definitely have to make some hard decisions 4 or 5 years down the line but realistically those decisions will be about guys like Kadri more than any of their top flight guys.

Yeah, I think that's the longterm outlook, and I'm not particularly concerned that they won't be able to keep the core. But... if any of those deals get dragged out by the player's side and another team steps in with an offer sheet... say, Nylander signs somewhere for 8. Leafs match, okay, but now we're a bit squeezed. Have to trim elsewhere. Even if you're not actually adding those players to your team, you could be still be weakening the team.

As I said, I'm not worried that the Leafs are somehow set up to be worse after assembling what might be the best collection of high-end forward talent in the conference. Just trying to imagine what opposing GMs might be thinking -- and probably wishing that the RFA system got a bit more interesting.

 

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/inside-story-maple-leafs-won-john-tavares-sweepstakes/

As part of his preparation, Dubas studied what?s worked best for NBA teams in free agency. He picked the brains of Toronto Raptors executives Masai Ujiri, Bobby Webster and Teresa Resch to glean what he could from their experiences. He decided to focus almost exclusively on what Toronto could offer Tavares as a hockey player.

That?s where Marner came in.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I think that's the longterm outlook, and I'm not particularly concerned that they won't be able to keep the core. But... if any of those deals get dragged out by the player's side and another team steps in with an offer sheet... say, Nylander signs somewhere for 8. Leafs match, okay, but now we're a bit squeezed. Have to trim elsewhere. Even if you're not actually adding those players to your team, you could be still be weakening the team.

Eh. I mean, I like Johnsson and everything but if you just deal him and all of a sudden you just need to sign the 4 guys to a combined 34 million or something you're fine. Yeah I guess you're "weakening the team" or whatever but I think it'd be also kind of disappointing if someone like Bracco or Timoshov or...heh...Korshkov couldn't effectively step in there without any real damage. 

As I said, I'm not worried that the Leafs are somehow set up to be worse after assembling what might be the best collection of high-end forward talent in the conference. Just trying to imagine what opposing GMs might be thinking -- and probably wishing that the RFA system got a bit more interesting.

See, I think this sort of makes the NHL seem more Machiavellian than it really is. Sure, maybe Lamoriello is in his last NHL job and might throw caution to the wind in an act of revenge or whatever but outside of that enough teams have their own cap issues, or potential cap issues, to make offer-sheeting a guy just to gum up Toronto a pretty dumb move. I think the reason the NHL has gotten where it is with the RFA market is precisely because the system is set up so that offer sheets are a spectacularly bad idea.

Like, take Nylander. Let's say the Islanders offer sheet him. Let's even ignore the thing about them not having their 2nd and 3rd. I like Nylander fine but is Nylander really moving the needle there? Does signing him to a too-high cap hit really improve the Islanders long term vs. maybe taking a shot at Jack Hughes?

Yeah, Toronto still probably matches but the dumbest thing in the world for a team to do would be to sign a guy to an offer sheet that they don't actually want. All you're doing is opening the floodgates while shooting yourself in the foot while mixing metaphors.

I genuinely think most NHL gms, both for their teams and in self interest, probably think the best thing they can do is just focus on their own lane without trying to sabotage anyone else.

 

[ZBBM]

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

I tried to look at to what extent things would really get sticky for the Leafs before Marleau's contract comes off the book and for the Leafs to really be in trouble I think a few things have to happen:

1. They re-sign Gardiner
2. They can't move Martin
3. The five young guys who need to be re-signed get, combined, in excess of 35 million combined.
4. There's almost no cap growth


I looked at things in sort of a worst case scenario way to get that 35 million by the way. My breakdown was 11.5 for Matthews, 8.5 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, 5 for Kapanen and 3 for Johnsson. If you can whittle that down at all the Leafs will be fine for the most part and if you can't then it's really just the one tough year until Marleau's contract comes off the books at which point between cap growth and that expiring deal they'll have 10 million or so to play with/re-sign guys like Dermott.

The Leafs will definitely have to make some hard decisions 4 or 5 years down the line but realistically those decisions will be about guys like Kadri more than any of their top flight guys.

Yeah, I think that's the longterm outlook, and I'm not particularly concerned that they won't be able to keep the core. But... if any of those deals get dragged out by the player's side and another team steps in with an offer sheet... say, Nylander signs somewhere for 8. Leafs match, okay, but now we're a bit squeezed. Have to trim elsewhere. Even if you're not actually adding those players to your team, you could be still be weakening the team.

As I said, I'm not worried that the Leafs are somehow set up to be worse after assembling what might be the best collection of high-end forward talent in the conference. Just trying to imagine what opposing GMs might be thinking -- and probably wishing that the RFA system got a bit more interesting.

You guys realize that the entire tenor of this discussion is on a whole other plane of existence than, say, 10 years ago.  Just saying, savor every minute of our suddenly First World Problems.

 

[rdowdall]

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

I tried to look at to what extent things would really get sticky for the Leafs before Marleau's contract comes off the book and for the Leafs to really be in trouble I think a few things have to happen:

1. They re-sign Gardiner
2. They can't move Martin
3. The five young guys who need to be re-signed get in excess of 35 million combined.
4. There's almost no cap growth


I looked at things in sort of a worst case scenario way to get that 35 million by the way. My breakdown was 11.5 for Matthews, 8.5 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, 5 for Kapanen and 3 for Johnsson. If you can whittle that down at all the Leafs will be fine for the most part and if you can't then it's really just the one tough year until Marleau's contract comes off the books at which point between cap growth and that expiring deal they'll have 10 million or so to play with/re-sign guys like Dermott.

The Leafs will definitely have to make some hard decisions 4 or 5 years down the line but realistically those decisions will be about guys like Kadri more than any of their top flight guys.

You forgot secret hidden task #5.  The Senators trade Karlsson to a team in the West, who then trades him to the Leafs for a better package than what the Senators received.  At that point they sign him to an 11 million/per deal for 8 years.

 

[Kin]

You guys realize that the entire tenor of this discussion is on a whole other plane of existence than, say, 10 years ago.  Just saying, savor every minute of our suddenly First World Problems.

At times like these I like to channel Mike Babcock who would no doubt say that you shouldn't be focused on the nature of your problems but the nature of your solutions.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

On the subject of offer sheets, a little trivia I just realized:  Jake Gardiner was drafted by Anaheim with one of the draft picks Edmonton gave them for offer sheeting Dustin Penner.

 

[Kin]

On the subject of offer sheets, a little trivia I just realized:  Jake Gardiner was drafted by Anaheim with one of the draft picks Edmonton gave them for offer sheeting Dustin Penner.

Wikipedia seems to say it's actually a little more complicated than that. Gardiner was taken by the Ducks with a pick that originally belonged to Calgary that Anaheim got after trading Edmonton's pick down to LA and then LA traded that pick to Buffalo.

It looks like the compensation pick was then used by Buffalo on Tyler Myers.

 

[ZBBM]

You guys realize that the entire tenor of this discussion is on a whole other plane of existence than, say, 10 years ago.  Just saying, savor every minute of our suddenly First World Problems.

At times like these I like to channel Mike Babcock who would no doubt say that you shouldn't be focused on the nature of your problems but the nature of your solutions.

Well, First World solutions usually revolve around money, which MLSE has.  Got.

 

[herman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qfdkn2bDp98
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfF4u-DjH1Y

Just watching these for the next couple of months.

 

[Kin]

Well, First World solutions usually revolve around money, which MLSE has.  Got.

You know, all the money in the world can't buy character. And character is revealed through hard work. So really what we're focused on right now is hard work, doing things the right way and letting the rest take care of itself.

(Seriously, I can't stop with the Babcockisms.)

 

[freer]

It is so unprofessional for those hired to speak about the team to have not done even the most basic research that fans online have done. 

Although.... if the Nylander negotiation drags out as he wants $7m and the Leafs want less than $6.5m, wouldn't it be smart for a team to try to sign him for, say, $8mx5? Compensation isn't terrible, and, if the Leafs match, you've made it harder for them to re-sign Matthews and Marner without cutting into the depth.

Well if William were worth more then Kadri maybe he should. Unfortunately Will did not prove that he is worth that kind of money. After last season he should not be signed for any more then 5 mil a year IMO

 

[Zee]

I'm not worried about the cap and fitting all the guys in. I've accepted the fact that Dubas is smarter than I am and his team of pencil neck geeks who know the salary cap rules like they wrote it will figure out some creative solutions.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

On the subject of offer sheets, a little trivia I just realized:  Jake Gardiner was drafted by Anaheim with one of the draft picks Edmonton gave them for offer sheeting Dustin Penner.

Wikipedia seems to say it's actually a little more complicated than that. Gardiner was taken by the Ducks with a pick that originally belonged to Calgary that Anaheim got after trading Edmonton's pick down to LA and then LA traded that pick to Buffalo.

It looks like the compensation pick was then used by Buffalo on Tyler Myers.

Oh yeah, I wasn't paying attention.  Side note:  between Myers getting picked at #12 and Gardiner going at #17 was good old Erik Karlsson at #15.  The Oilers maybe could have used a guy like that instead of Penner.

 

[princedpw]

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

I tried to look at to what extent things would really get sticky for the Leafs before Marleau's contract comes off the book and for the Leafs to really be in trouble I think a few things have to happen:

1. They re-sign Gardiner
2. They can't move Martin
3. The five young guys who need to be re-signed get in excess of 35 million combined.
4. There's almost no cap growth


I looked at things in sort of a worst case scenario way to get that 35 million by the way. My breakdown was 11.5 for Matthews, 8.5 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, 5 for Kapanen and 3 for Johnsson. If you can whittle that down at all the Leafs will be fine for the most part and if you can't then it's really just the one tough year until Marleau's contract comes off the books at which point between cap growth and that expiring deal they'll have 10 million or so to play with/re-sign guys like Dermott.

The Leafs will definitely have to make some hard decisions 4 or 5 years down the line but realistically those decisions will be about guys like Kadri more than any of their top flight guys.

If Kapanen suddenly becomes good enough to warrant a minimum $5/year RFA deal then I think you can turn that into a positive:  you should be able to trade him for a very exciting prospect or pick to fill in efficiently.

 

[Kin]

Oh yeah, I wasn't paying attention.  Side note:  between Myers getting picked at #12 and Gardiner going at #17 was good old Erik Karlsson at #15.  The Oilers maybe could have used a guy like that instead of Penner.

The only reason I made the distinction is because I remembered that Gardiner got picked 17th so for it to have been the Oilers pick would have meant that they had made the playoffs the year before and, well, that sounded wrong.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/e_presement/status/1013993644846505984

+1

 

[ZBBM]

Haha I totally forgot about that. Yuck

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/IslesBlog/status/933528140873437185

The only thing better than that Tavares play from last season is the next tweet from @IslesBlog:

https://twitter.com/IslesBlog/status/933736493243355137