Kings @ Leafs - Dec. 11th, 7:30pm - TSN, TSN 1050

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I learned today that stats are touchy subjects.

Anything's a touchy subject when it becomes dogma.

Well done.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Proving your own point there.

Things only get touchy when posters can't respond to their use without becoming upset.  I've backed away from a lot of discussions for fear of getting too out of hand, by both myself and others. 

 

[Kin]

Provable points are the best kind.

 

[Highlander]

my karma ran over my dogma

 

[Tigger]

It turns out that crossing the blue line with possession is worth more than a dump-in.

How much more? Quite a bit, according to this paper presented at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.10 After tracking more than 300 games from the 2011-12 season, the authors found that, even when accounting for the higher failure rate of carry attempts, that approach still generated roughly twice as many shots, scoring chances, and goals as dumping in the puck and trying to retrieve it.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10083164/zone-entry-nhl

I'm re-reading that Sloan paper, one thing that I was looking for was any data on the counterproductive nature of failed zone entries and near the bottom it addresses it to a degree...

It is also important to evaluate the defensive aspect of the entry decision. It is clear that successfully carrying the puck in leads to substantially more offense, but how many unsuccessful attempts are there and how costly are they?

To address this, unsuccessful entry attempts were also recorded in the Capitals games. That permits calculation of the expected outcome of each decision, as shown in Table 3. Contrary to popular understanding about the importance of making a team go the full length of the ice, failed attempts to carry the puck into the zone actually lead to fewer shots against than dump-and-chase plays and have a better average outcome than dumping the puck and going for a line change.

...and goes on to explain how that was determined. Essentially, the more talented your team is transitioning through the neutral zone and attempting zone entry with possession, the better the chance for success.

I think it also shows a reasonable use of the dump and chase tactic, say, for your less talented players to avoid high risk and costly errors.

 

[MetalRaven]

my karma ran over my dogma

Im sorry for your lozenge.