Kyle Dubas is JFJ 2.0 - Discuss

[Bender]

In the calendar year (2019) the Leafs have played at a pace that wouldn't make the playoffs. Changed out a bunch of players and getting the same results, overall team play doesn't look any better. Getting back their 3 roster players will help, but there will probably be other injuries at some point and they'll just have to figure out how to get past them.

I try to keep in mind that St Louis had a horrible first half of last year and of course won the Cup, so trying to not get too worried. But I'm not seeing much evidence of the expected year-to-year improvement one would expect from the young core. That is concerning.

Nylander is playing *much* better this year and Matthews started the season off on fire.  Marner has had a slow start but I think the whole contract thing affected him.  It seems so common in pro sports that the athlete gets the big contract and then goes into a slump.  Not entirely sure why.

As for the rest of the young guys I haven't been following them closely enough to comment.  I personally didn't quite understand sending Sandin down when he clearly earned a spot on the team.  He looked great to me.  The big issue with the team could be their complete lack of salary cap flexibility which ties the hands of management in terms of getting the best team they can on the ice every day.  It has also affected the whole backup goalie thing which is a complete mess.

Dubas may have to trade Ceci and an asset/prospect/pick to fix that problem.  I have mixed feelings on that, though.

I think the real error in Dubas' judgement has been making a run at it twice in a row the past two years when he could have gotten a king's ransom for expiring contract players at both trade deadlines (JVR 2 years ago and Gardiner last season).  It would have given the team so much more ammunition to make a run at things now and for the next several years.

Now things are looking a bit murky.  Apparently next season the Leafs will have a fair bit more cap space just due to how the current contracts all work out.  We shall see.  This season just may not be the year.  It could still pan out if Dubas is able to be shrewd about it.  I just don't trust his judgement in terms of whether we should be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  I could see him making a run at things this year which could turn out to be foolish yet again.  And if he makes a run at it this year, the cupboard will be pretty bare going forward in terms of our picks and prospects that are expendable.

Yeah, they probably would have been better off getting something for guys like JVR (not so much Gardiner IMO) and NOT spending picks on 4th line centers before the team was really ready. And next year there will be more cap space because Barrie, Muzzin and Ceci come off the books. Problem is, they all have to be replaced and if we expect guys like Sandin and Lily to step right in and play like seasoned pros, I think we'll be in for a rude awakening, regardless of how good Sandin looked at the start of the season. Plus Mikheyev is on a one year deal, right? So if we want to keep him and he keeps performing like he is, his cost will go up.

Overpaying by a few hundred thousand or a million $ on each of the big contracts...yeah, that couldn't possibly cause any problems now could it?

You can say that about inefficiencies for other teams in other parts of their lineup. $10M Carey Price/Bobrovsky? Half the Pens last few pickups? Even David Backes for the Bruins is a boat anchor. Some deals are better than others but I think the hope is for the deals to look better over time, which I think they will. It's unfortunate that we couldn't negotiate them to a lower salary but we aren't Tampa. And people who bring up the B's need to remmeber how long ago Bergeron & Marchand signed and that Pastrnak signed his extension before his massive breakout. If I were Pastrnak I'd fire my agent.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

While I'm not suggesting a return to goonery, I do think it's reasonable to wonder whether it's a mistake to have no physical presence on the team at all.

1) I don't think Dubas is completely unaware of this problem. He did make a pretty big splash by acquiring Muzzin, who is arguably our biggest (only?) physical presence on the team.

2) I don't think this is something that falls entirely on Dubas either. People seem to forget that the Red Wings were often at or near the bottom of the league in both hits and fights while Babcock was the head coach there. And this was well before the league started to shy away from having a goon on every single team.

3) I think what Babcock and Dubas would agree on is that physical players need to be good hockey players as well. I know that that's not a groundbreaking revelation but it presents two problems because a) those players don't grow on trees and b) where do you fit that player on the roster? Let's look at our forwards. For a physical player to really make a difference I think he needs to be a top-9 player. We can't fix this problem by having a Matt Martin type getting 7 minutes a night. Here's what our top-9 forwards look like:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Kapanen

Which one of those players do you remove from the team to add more physicality? The big-4 are obviously locked in. I'd argue Hyman is easily the most physical player in that bunch so moving him out to replace him with a physical player doesn't really move the needle at all. So I think any addition of physicality is going to come at the expense of Johnsson, Kapanen, or Kerfoot. Likely Johnsson or Kapanen. Are you willing to trade one of those guys to make room for a Michael Ferland (for example) type player?

Then of course you have to wonder if moving just one player out like that will fix the mentality of the team. You'd probably have to trade both Johnsson and Kapanen and replace them with more physical (but worse) players to really see a difference.

 

[ZBBM]

While I'm not suggesting a return to goonery, I do think it's reasonable to wonder whether it's a mistake to have no physical presence on the team at all.

1) I don't think Dubas is completely unaware of this problem. He did make a pretty big splash by acquiring Muzzin, who is arguably our biggest (only?) physical presence on the team.

2) I don't think this is something that falls entirely on Dubas either. People seem to forget that the Red Wings were often at or near the bottom of the league in both hits and fights while Babcock was the head coach there. And this was well before the league started to shy away from having a goon on every single team.

3) I think what Babcock and Dubas would agree on is that physical players need to be good hockey players as well. I know that that's not a groundbreaking revelation but it presents two problems because a) those players don't grow on trees and b) where do you fit that player on the roster? Let's look at our forwards. For a physical player to really make a difference I think he needs to be a top-9 player. We can't fix this problem by having a Matt Martin type getting 7 minutes a night. Here's what our top-9 forwards look like:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Kapanen

Which one of those players do you remove from the team to add more physicality? The big-4 are obviously locked in. I'd argue Hyman is easily the most physical player in that bunch so moving him out to replace him with a physical player doesn't really move the needle at all. So I think any addition of physicality is going to come at the expense of Johnsson, Kapanen, or Kerfoot. Likely Johnsson or Kapanen. Are you willing to trade one of those guys to make room for a Michael Ferland (for example) type player?

Then of course you have to wonder if moving just one player out like that will fix the mentality of the team. You'd probably have to trade both Johnsson and Kapanen and replace them with more physical (but worse) players to really see a difference.

Great post.  Yes, it's a challenge.  However, I don't think you have to shoehorn both physical players into the top 3 lines.  That's a tall order.

Of the players on the top 3 lines, I'd trade Kerfoot or, with greater reluctance, Kapanen.  I'd also swap out 1 or maybe even 2 guys on the 4th line for players who can kill penalties and consistently finish checks.  Fighting isn't the point.  We have nobody who routinely does what Boston and other teams do to us, which is to wear down the opponent.  Sure, if our possession game is firing on all pistons they get worn out chasing us.  But too often teams have more in the tank than we do by the 3rd, and I think it's showed several times this with blown leads.

 

[Bates]

Physical toughness has little to do with fighting. Opposition D barely have to look over their shoulder when retrieving the puck from the physical side. We have almost no pushback. And that theory of fighting back on the PP doesn't really work when the other team just pushes you around without taking penalties.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If the Leafs were 10-3 we wouldn't be having this discussion. Instead of trading everyone away the current players could actually pull up their big boy pants. They don't have to fight, but a carefully placed stick, crosscheck, hack, shot to the head could go a long way. Finishing a check would also help. You don't have to hammer a guy, just hit him every chance.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If the Leafs were 10-3 we wouldn't be having this discussion. Instead of trading everyone away the current players could actually pull up their big boy pants. They don't have to fight, but a carefully placed stick, crosscheck, hack, shot to the head could go a long way. Finishing a check would also help. You don't have to hammer a guy, just hit him every chance.

And guys like Kapanen and Johnsson have both shown that they have a pest/agitator side to their games as well, it just rarely comes out.

 

[Chris]

Fortunately we have noted agitator and pugilist SDA developing in the system. Unfortunately he probably won't be ready for several years.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If the Leafs were 10-3 we wouldn't be having this discussion. Instead of trading everyone away the current players could actually pull up their big boy pants. They don't have to fight, but a carefully placed stick, crosscheck, hack, shot to the head could go a long way. Finishing a check would also help. You don't have to hammer a guy, just hit him every chance.

And guys like Kapanen and Johnsson have both shown that they have a pest/agitator side to their games as well, it just rarely comes out.

And that's the issue. It's in a lot of guys but it doesn't show up enough. That play when Marchand crosschecked Goat. He needed to do something either there or at another time. Hack him or something, don't just look at him and go oh well.

 

[Chris]

If the Leafs were 10-3 we wouldn't be having this discussion. Instead of trading everyone away the current players could actually pull up their big boy pants. They don't have to fight, but a carefully placed stick, crosscheck, hack, shot to the head could go a long way. Finishing a check would also help. You don't have to hammer a guy, just hit him every chance.

And guys like Kapanen and Johnsson have both shown that they have a pest/agitator side to their games as well, it just rarely comes out.

And that's the issue. It's in a lot of guys but it doesn't show up enough. That play when Marchand crosschecked Goat. He needed to do something either there or at another time. Hack him or something, don't just look at him and go oh well.

Should have pounded him. At least he hit back when Krug went after him earlier.

I get tired of seeing Leaf forwards take extra shots in the back and head after the whistle around the opposition net, while on the other end the Leaf defenders barely touch anyone. Even when someone bowled over Andersen earlier in the season (can't remember which game), Marincin grabbed the guy around the neck and tried to wrestle him to the ground. How about giving him a cross check or punch.

 

[azzurri63]

Physical toughness has little to do with fighting. Opposition D barely have to look over their shoulder when retrieving the puck from the physical side. We have almost no pushback. And that theory of fighting back on the PP doesn't really work when the other team just pushes you around without taking penalties.

Bang on my friend bang on.
Unfortunately that's something players either have or don't but something this team lacks big time.
I would sooner draft a guy with that little bit of an edge with skills compared to skilled guys who shy away completely from any tough going.
We have a skilled bunch more so than most teams which is great but we definitely need some grit.

 

[Highlander]

Fortunately we have noted agitator and pugilist SDA developing in the system. Unfortunately he probably won't be ready for several years.

SDA a David amongst Goliaths.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If the Leafs were 10-3 we wouldn't be having this discussion. Instead of trading everyone away the current players could actually pull up their big boy pants. They don't have to fight, but a carefully placed stick, crosscheck, hack, shot to the head could go a long way. Finishing a check would also help. You don't have to hammer a guy, just hit him every chance.

And guys like Kapanen and Johnsson have both shown that they have a pest/agitator side to their games as well, it just rarely comes out.

And that's the issue. It's in a lot of guys but it doesn't show up enough. That play when Marchand crosschecked Goat. He needed to do something either there or at another time. Hack him or something, don't just look at him and go oh well.

Should have pounded him. At least he hit back when Krug went after him earlier.

I get tired of seeing Leaf forwards take extra shots in the back and head after the whistle around the opposition net, while on the other end the Leaf defenders barely touch anyone. Even when someone bowled over Andersen earlier in the season (can't remember which game), Marincin grabbed the guy around the neck and tried to wrestle him to the ground. How about giving him a cross check or punch.

That's one of the things that I liked about Polak. Guys would pay. The Leafs don't even have to retaliate physically. How about getting pissed and cranking up the energy level? You can push back that way too.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And that's the issue. It's in a lot of guys but it doesn't show up enough. That play when Marchand crosschecked Goat. He needed to do something either there or at another time. Hack him or something, don't just look at him and go oh well.

I don't know about that. If Gauthier lays a finger on Marchand there it's Goat going straight to the box. And it's not like a punch to the face is going to change the way Marchand plays all of a sudden. For guys like him just ignoring them like Goat did (or maybe some verbal jousting to get Marchand to do something stupid) is the right play.

Now if someone wants to lay Marchand out with a clean hit during play, sure I'll take it.

 

[Guilt Trip]

And that's the issue. It's in a lot of guys but it doesn't show up enough. That play when Marchand crosschecked Goat. He needed to do something either there or at another time. Hack him or something, don't just look at him and go oh well.

I don't know about that. If Gauthier lays a finger on Marchand there it's Goat going straight to the box. And it's not like a punch to the face is going to change the way Marchand plays all of a sudden. For guys like him just ignoring them like Goat did (or maybe some verbal jousting to get Marchand to do something stupid) is the right play.

Now if someone wants to lay Marchand out with a clean hit during play, sure I'll take it.

There comes a time you have to defend yourself regardless of the penalty call. That was the time. Doing nothing will also not change the way he plays against you.

 

[Highlander]

Dubas taking tons of heat on the Athletic, not so much here these days, especially in regards to our D.

Was waiting on Holl a bad assessment?  He is now one of our best D.  Next year there will be no more Ceci, probably no Barrie.  So we have Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott (more seasoned), Sandin, Liljegren and probably a decent free agent or trade for such .  Looks like an upgrade to me over this year.

For Sandpaper on O I can certainly see Marchment making the 4th line and Engvall does have an edge to him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Dubas taking tons of heat on the Athletic, not so much here these days, especially in regards to our D.

Was waiting on Holl a bad assessment?

You think that that was on Dubas?

 

[Kin]

Muzzin's a UFA next year and I'm pretty lukewarm on re-signing him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Muzzin's a UFA next year and I'm pretty lukewarm on re-signing him.

He's been up and down lately. I don't know if it's because he's having trouble with Keefe's system or if he's injured (took a maintenance day recently) but yeah if I had to make the call right now I don't think I'd be able to commit to him long-term.

 

[Highlander]

Dubas taking tons of heat on the Athletic, not so much here these days, especially in regards to our D.

Was waiting on Holl a bad assessment?

You think that that was on Dubas?

Not the writers but the fans/posters all want a new whipping boy, so who better than Dubas now that Babcock has gone? And most realize that they have to give Keefe at least a little time to imprint the team.

Regarding Muzzin, I am not completely sold either but with his play, don't think his price is going to skyrocket on his next deal, especially at his age.  If someone wants to make an offer I would listen but that would mean we are not making the post season.

 

[Peter D.]

Muzzin's a UFA next year and I'm pretty lukewarm on re-signing him.

If it came down to between Barrie and Muzzin, before the season I would have said Barrie no doubt.

Now I don't even know if I'd want to commit to either.