Leafs 2015/2016 Schedule in 10 game chunks

[bustaheims]

1 goal or less in 6 of 10 games now. Anyone still believe this isn't a bottom 5 team?

 

[rdowdall]

1 goal or less in 6 of 10 games now. Anyone still believe this isn't a bottom 5 team?

It's going to suck when Anahiem gets Matthews.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

1 goal or less in 6 of 10 games now. Anyone still believe this isn't a bottom 5 team?

Don't worry, once Grabner starts playing everything will turn around!

 

[Zee]

1 goal or less in 6 of 10 games now. Anyone still believe this isn't a bottom 5 team?

It's going to suck when Anahiem gets Matthews.

Wash your mouth out with soap mister!  (when are we playing the Ducks?  That will be the true test)

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

1 goal or less in 6 of 10 games now. Anyone still believe this isn't a bottom 5 team?

Sample size and all, but CF Close has them 5th best in the league and most of their offensive weapons have been snakebitten so far. You have to think they'll get a stretch with goaltending that's close to league average at some point.

I think had they received even average goaltending they'd be closer to the middle than the bottom. If they maintain those type of possession numbers, they won't be a bottom five team I don't think.

 

[bustaheims]

Sample size and all, but CF Close has them 5th best in the league and most of their offensive weapons have been snakebitten so far. You have to think they'll get a stretch with goaltending that's close to league average at some point.

I think had they received even average goaltending they'd be closer to the middle than the bottom. If they maintain those type of possession numbers, they won't be a bottom five team I don't think.

Goaltending isn't the reason this team hasn't been able to score. With average goaltending, they still would have lost most nights, because they can't score. It's great that they've improved their possession game, and, yes, their best offensive weapons haven't produced well - but that's largely because their best offensive weapons aren't very good. They're not the 2nd lowest scoring team by accident or because of bad luck. They're there because their talent level is poor. Their advanced stats will drop to reflect their talent level.

And, really, the only significant offensive piece who has been really snakebitten is Kadri. JvR and Lupul are on pace for roughly what you'd expect from them, Komarov is producing at a higher level and the rest of the roster . . . well, they're not exactly significant offensive weapons. There's a few guys who might score 20 goals if things break their way, but no one I'd say is snakebitten. They're largely guys who need help putting the puck in the net on a regular basis, and the Leafs don't have that kind of help on the roster. The goal production that we've seen from the Leafs so far? That's pretty close to what should be expected from them over a season. They're not going to produce at a pace that's significantly higher than the 2 goals per game they're at now. The goaltending may improve, and that will help keep the games close and turn a handful in the Leafs' favour, but it's not going to be enough to pull them out of the bottom 5.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Sample size and all, but CF Close has them 5th best in the league and most of their offensive weapons have been snakebitten so far. You have to think they'll get a stretch with goaltending that's close to league average at some point.

I think had they received even average goaltending they'd be closer to the middle than the bottom. If they maintain those type of possession numbers, they won't be a bottom five team I don't think.

Goaltending isn't the reason this team hasn't been able to score. With average goaltending, they still would have lost most nights, because they can't score. It's great that they've improved their possession game, and, yes, their best offensive weapons haven't produced well - but that's largely because their best offensive weapons aren't very good. They're not the 2nd lowest scoring team by accident or because of bad luck. They're there because their talent level is poor. Their advanced stats will drop to reflect their talent level.

And, really, the only significant offensive piece who has been really snakebitten is Kadri. JvR and Lupul are on pace for roughly what you'd expect from them, Komarov is producing at a higher level and the rest of the roster . . . well, they're not exactly significant offensive weapons. There's a few guys who might score 20 goals if things break their way, but no one I'd say is snakebitten. They're largely guys who need help putting the puck in the net on a regular basis, and the Leafs don't have that kind of help on the roster. The goal production that we've seen from the Leafs so far? That's pretty close to what should be expected from them over a season. They're not going to produce at a pace that's significantly higher than the 2 goals per game they're at now. The goaltending may improve, and that will help keep the games close and turn a handful in the Leafs' favour, but it's not going to be enough to pull them out of the bottom 5.

The Leafs are shooting at 6% right now.

The league average is just over 9%.

Had the Leafs been around the average they'd have an extra 7 goals at this point.

The Leafs have received approximately .886 Sv% goaltending.

The league average for Sv% is .915.

Had they received league average goaltending they'd have conceded far fewer goals, I think nine was the number my quick and possibly faulty math came up with.

Look, in no way am I saying this is a good team or that is one that should come anywhere near a playoff place. But should they come even close to having league average goaltending and shooting percentages, coupled with the type of possession they're having (heck this could drop a couple of percentage points and still be better than average) they won't be a bottom five team.

To be honest, I think the biggest problem they are going to run into is that they'll stop playing the way that has produced so many of these great underlying metrics because they aren't getting wins and the players begin cheating and becoming discouraged.

Couple all of this with special teams that really have nowhere to go but up and I think they're going to be good enough to not get a great draft pick, but bad enough to not accomplish anything worth talking about.

That is extremely bothersome to me, because it seems like a recipe for continued mediocrity.

 

[Kin]

The Leafs are shooting at 6% right now.

The league average is just over 9%.

Had the Leafs been around the average they'd have an extra 7 goals at this point.

The Leafs have received approximately .886 Sv% goaltending.

The league average for Sv% is .915.

Had they received league average goaltending they'd have conceded far fewer goals, I think nine was the number my quick and possibly faulty math came up with.

But unless you're arguing that those two numbers are completely independent of the talent level of a club then there should be no assumption of a regression to the mean. The Leafs don't have an average collection of offensive talent and there's some evidence that their goaltenders are below league average(in addition to the various factors that contribute to save percentage).

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The Leafs are shooting at 6% right now.

The league average is just over 9%.

Had the Leafs been around the average they'd have an extra 7 goals at this point.

The Leafs have received approximately .886 Sv% goaltending.

The league average for Sv% is .915.

Had they received league average goaltending they'd have conceded far fewer goals, I think nine was the number my quick and possibly faulty math came up with.

But unless you're arguing that those two numbers are completely independent of the talent level of a club then there should be no assumption of a regression to the mean. The Leafs don't have an average collection of offensive talent and there's some evidence that their goaltenders are below league average(in addition to the various factors that contribute to save percentage).

I'm more arguing that if they do continue to put up the type of possession numbers that have been a result of Babcock's systems, then those shooting numbers will likely to even out.

There has never been a team that has taken the number of shots the Leafs are on pace to take (even if you factor in some regression) and only shot 6%.

It's highly unlikely they'll continue to receive the calibre of goaltending they have either, I think both goalies are at least somewhat better than the numbers they've posted so far.

It'll come down to whether Babcock will be able to get them to maintain the style of play that have shown in 7 of the 10 games they've played this year.

So if they system continues, the offense will improve, the special teams and goaltending can only improve, then I think they'll win a decent amount of games.

 

[Kin]

I'm more arguing that if they do continue to put up the type of possession numbers that have been a result of Babcock's systems, then those shooting numbers will likely to even out.

They might even out some but we shouldn't expect a league average. This team is more than likely to continue to struggle to score even if they maintain this possession rate, which is unlikely.

So we're almost certainly going to see a below average goaltending and shooting percentage regardless. Those things do have something to do with player skill and the Leafs are pretty clearly wanting in those departments.

There has never been a team that has taken the number of shots the Leafs are on pace to take (even if you factor in some regression) and only shot 6%.

But we don't have the wealth of data for possession numbers to make that a meaningful statement. The Leafs right now are a team that is using a new system and they've seen some good possession numbers out of it but are hamstrung by a notable deficiency in talent. Have we seen those circumstances before? It seems to me like those two things combining would naturally lead to an unusually low shooting percentage provided that you're of the opinion that shooting percentage has anything to do with the talent level of the player taking the shot and that it's not inextricably linked to the ability to play a solid possession game.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There has never been a team that has taken the number of shots the Leafs are on pace to take (even if you factor in some regression) and only shot 6%.

I know in the past Carolina and New Jersey have had seasons where they posted pretty good possession numbers but just couldn't translate that into goals (and thus wins). New Jersey is obviously a slightly different story but I decided to see how Toronto compared to those Carolina teams.

The Leafs currently have a 6.4% shooting percentage at even-strength. And they're averaging 56.3 shot attempts for per 60 minutes.

The 12/13 Hurricanes shot 7.3% and had 61.6 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The 13/14 Hurricanes shot 6.8% and had 58.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The 14/15 Hurricanes shot 6.2% and had 57.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

So it's certainly not impossible to have a higher than average shot-attempts for rate and a lower than average shooting percentage. Even if the Leafs current shooting percentage rises it's definitely not going to get as high as the league average. Maybe it creeps up in the 7s, but that's likely it given the talent on this team.

 

[bustaheims]

So it's certainly not impossible to have a higher than average shot-attempts for rate and a lower than average shooting percentage. Even if the Leafs current shooting percentage rises it's definitely not going to get as high as the league average. Maybe it creeps up in the 7s, but that's likely it given the talent on this team.

It kind of makes sense in a way, too. More shot attempts also means more low quality shot attempts - in fact, the increase in that area is probably higher than the increase in high quality attempts. That's not a bad thing, obviously, since even low quality attempts can lead to chance, goals, etc., but they're also more likely to be stopped. A team like the Leafs, that doesn't have the talent to generate or take advantage of the 2nd chance attempts that come off those low quality attempts is going to see that lead to a low shooting percentage.

I mean, really, the right now, the Leafs have a team full of Hoglunds, but no Sundins. That's not going to lead to a lot of goals.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

But we don't have the wealth of data for possession numbers to make that a meaningful statement. The Leafs right now are a team that is using a new system and they've seen some good possession numbers out of it but are hamstrung by a notable deficiency in talent. Have we seen those circumstances before? It seems to me like those two things combining would naturally lead to an unusually low shooting percentage provided that you're of the opinion that shooting percentage has anything to do with the talent level of the player taking the shot and that it's not inextricably linked to the ability to play a solid possession game.

The first bolded part, sure that's fair.

The second bolded part, this is where you lose me a little. Talking about "talent level" seems really subjective. These exact players as a group shot 10.3% last year. To expect them all to play in a system that is designed to get them plenty of shots and to have a sustained drop off of 4% shooting percentage seems like quite a leap, given this start I'd have them as probably close to 8% when all is said and done.

So again, even if their possession numbers regress to the mean a little, this forward group has shown that they'll get some offense if given the continued opportunity. Now add to that the fact that it's highly unlikely their goalies will provide them .865 SvPct all year.

I don't get why this is such a leap, they'll likely be a bottom 10/8 team, I just think given all the things that I've mentioned, they are likely win enough to not be bottom 5.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

These exact players as a group shot 10.3% last year.

Just curious, where did you get that number from? Thought it seemed high, but I wanted to see for myself. Plucked the teams top 12 healthy forwards and top 6 healthy defencemen into war-on-ice's database from last season and found that at even-strength they scored 132 goals on 1598 shots. That gives you a shooting percentage of 8.26%. And that was led by Matthias' 17 even-strength goals and 14.29% shooting percentage though, which I think we can all agree isn't happening this season.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

There has never been a team that has taken the number of shots the Leafs are on pace to take (even if you factor in some regression) and only shot 6%.

I know in the past Carolina and New Jersey have had seasons where they posted pretty good possession numbers but just couldn't translate that into goals (and thus wins). New Jersey is obviously a slightly different story but I decided to see how Toronto compared to those Carolina teams.

The Leafs currently have a 6.4% shooting percentage at even-strength. And they're averaging 56.3 shot attempts for per 60 minutes.

The 12/13 Hurricanes shot 7.3% and had 61.6 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The 13/14 Hurricanes shot 6.8% and had 58.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The 14/15 Hurricanes shot 6.2% and had 57.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

So it's certainly not impossible to have a higher than average shot-attempts for rate and a lower than average shooting percentage. Even if the Leafs current shooting percentage rises it's definitely not going to get as high as the league average. Maybe it creeps up in the 7s, but that's likely it given the talent on this team.

Thanks for the numbers Carlton, that's very enlightening.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

These exact players as a group shot 10.3% last year.

Just curious, where did you get that number from? Thought it seemed high, but I wanted to see for myself. Plucked the teams top 12 healthy forwards and top 6 healthy defencemen into war-on-ice's database from last season and found that at even-strength they scored 132 goals on 1598 shots. That gives you a shooting percentage of 8.26%. And that was led by Matthias' 17 even-strength goals and 14.29% shooting percentage though, which I think we can all agree isn't happening this season.

My apologies.

It was actually over the last three years and it was the group as it stood October 7th, it might have fluctuated somewhat with roster moves since.

 

[bustaheims]

Just curious, where did you get that number from? Thought it seemed high, but I wanted to see for myself. Plucked the teams top 12 healthy forwards and top 6 healthy defencemen into war-on-ice's database from last season and found that at even-strength they scored 132 goals on 1598 shots. That gives you a shooting percentage of 8.26%. And that was led by Matthias' 17 even-strength goals and 14.29% shooting percentage though, which I think we can all agree isn't happening this season.

Yeah, that felt high. There's also a contextual issue. A lot of these players were on different teams in different systems last season, playing in different roles, often with players with more talent or on lines that weren't the focal point of the defence. Combine that with the fact that a significant portion of them have been pretty inconsistent throughout their careers, it should be expected that some of their production is going to suffer from the change of situation.

Honestly, other than Kadri, I'm not seeing where any significant increase in offence is supposed to come from. The goaltending the team is receiving should see a somewhat substantial improvement - I don't know if they'll hit league average, but I don't expect it will remain sub .900 all season - but the offence? I see a small improvement at best. That will lead to closer games and an improvement on their current .200 point percentage, but I see a team that will struggle to even get to the .415 point percentage this team had last season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That will lead to closer games and an improvement on their current .200 point percentage, but I see a team that will struggle to even get to the .415 point percentage this team had last season.

Yeah certainly nobody would argue that the Leafs are going to finish with 32 points this season. The fact that the Leafs need improvements in their shooting/save percentage just to get to the 14/15 Buffalo Sabres points total says a lot. And those improvements will come, and they'll finish better than that team, but it won't get much better than that.

To go back to Patrick's statement about the Leafs maybe being a bottom 8/10 team. Last season the 8th last team had 89 points. That might have been high that year considering how bad BUF/ARI was. The year before that was 84 points, so let's use that number. To get to 84 points this team needs to get 80 points in their remaining 72 games. That's a winning percentage of .555 the rest of the way. I don't see that in the realm of possibility.

 

[bustaheims]

To go back to Patrick's statement about the Leafs maybe being a bottom 8/10 team. Last season the 8th last team had 89 points. That might have been high that year considering how bad BUF/ARI was. The year before that was 84 points, so let's use that number. To get to 84 points this team needs to get 80 points in their remaining 72 games. That's a winning percentage of .555 the rest of the way. I don't see that in the realm of possibility.

I don't either. In a lot of years, a .555 team would be on the edge of playoff contention. The Leafs are nowhere near that level. Just to get to the point level the 25th place teams have had over the past few years, they'd need to be above .500 the rest of the way, and I don't think too many people see that happening, either. They may not be a 30th overall team - that will obviously take some time to figure out - but without significant improvements in areas where they are lacking in talent, they're all but a lock for the bottom 5 already.

 

[Kin]

The second bolded part, this is where you lose me a little. Talking about "talent level" seems really subjective. These exact players as a group shot 10.3% last year. To expect them all to play in a system that is designed to get them plenty of shots and to have a sustained drop off of 4% shooting percentage seems like quite a leap, given this start I'd have them as probably close to 8% when all is said and done.

Well, as Busta says, scoring percentage isn't an entirely contextual number but context does factor into it. Doesn't it stand to reason that JVR is going to get more high percentage scoring chances with Kessel on the opposite wing as opposed to Leo Komarov? And doesn't it similarly figure that Kadri will find it harder to score against first pairing defensemen(or a shutdown pair) as opposed to being a team's secondary concern?

I don't get why this is such a leap, they'll likely be a bottom 10/8 team, I just think given all the things that I've mentioned, they are likely win enough to not be bottom 5.

It's not a leap, I just tend to think talent eventually wins out and the Leafs are A) one of the most talent poor teams in the league and B) almost certainly going to be more so come March.