Leafs acquire Martin Marincin from Edmonton

[herman]

Here's a good article on Marincin from earlier this month: http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

What we can confirm from his 85 games in the NHL is that he is a fantastic skater who can move the puck well and win one-on-one battles. Being 23, he's likely to make a mistake here and there, but he has shown signs of the defensive acumen needed to succeed at the NHL level. This past season was an interesting one for him, as he played very tough minutes at even strength for a weak Oilers team, yet still posted respectable possession numbers and shot share totals.

One number that stands out from the advanced metrics is the percentage of offensive zone starts, or lack thereof, Marincin had last season. Even though he started far more often in the defensive end against tougher competition compared to his teammates on defense, he still managed a respectable Corsi rating relative to his team.

It really does...except Marincin is a good 4 inches taller.  That's pretty awesome.  Expectations for any player need to be tempered but teams give away future solid players all the time, and Stralman is a perfect example.  I think this was a very poor move by Edmonton.

Above average speed, Stralman calm, 0.93 Chara reach? For Brad Ross and the 107th?
It's a move Toronto used to make in the other direction. I like this a lot.

 

[Kin]

I would think that this player was made available to the highest bidder and if what TO offered was the best offer, I would think this speaks volumes.

It might. But it might be speaking volumes as to the way Toronto is looking at analytics in ways other teams aren't. The whole point of putting together the anaylytics crew was to look to find things other teams didn't see so this could just be an example of that. Either way, it's such a low cost for a seemingly NHL capable defensemen that it's basically no-risk.

 

[caver]

Moneyball...

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Here's a good article on Marincin from earlier this month: http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

What we can confirm from his 85 games in the NHL is that he is a fantastic skater who can move the puck well and win one-on-one battles. Being 23, he's likely to make a mistake here and there, but he has shown signs of the defensive acumen needed to succeed at the NHL level. This past season was an interesting one for him, as he played very tough minutes at even strength for a weak Oilers team, yet still posted respectable possession numbers and shot share totals.

One number that stands out from the advanced metrics is the percentage of offensive zone starts, or lack thereof, Marincin had last season. Even though he started far more often in the defensive end against tougher competition compared to his teammates on defense, he still managed a respectable Corsi rating relative to his team.

It really does...except Marincin is a good 4 inches taller.  That's pretty awesome.  Expectations for any player need to be tempered but teams give away future solid players all the time, and Stralman is a perfect example.  I think this was a very poor move by Edmonton.

I would think that this player was made available to the highest bidder and if what TO offered was the best offer, I would think this speaks volumes. I think he's simply a player TO traded for because TO's vaunted youthful d-men aren't ready yet, getting worked up about anything about this guy seems a waste of time to me.

One could also perhaps say it speaks volumes that Martin St. Louis went unclaimed by all teams on waivers when with Calgary years before winning Hart and Art Ross Trophies, but the volumes have nothing to do with his ability as a player.

 

[Frank E]

Here's a good article on Marincin from earlier this month: http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

What we can confirm from his 85 games in the NHL is that he is a fantastic skater who can move the puck well and win one-on-one battles. Being 23, he's likely to make a mistake here and there, but he has shown signs of the defensive acumen needed to succeed at the NHL level. This past season was an interesting one for him, as he played very tough minutes at even strength for a weak Oilers team, yet still posted respectable possession numbers and shot share totals.

One number that stands out from the advanced metrics is the percentage of offensive zone starts, or lack thereof, Marincin had last season. Even though he started far more often in the defensive end against tougher competition compared to his teammates on defense, he still managed a respectable Corsi rating relative to his team.

It really does...except Marincin is a good 4 inches taller.  That's pretty awesome.  Expectations for any player need to be tempered but teams give away future solid players all the time, and Stralman is a perfect example.  I think this was a very poor move by Edmonton.

I would think that this player was made available to the highest bidder and if what TO offered was the best offer, I would think this speaks volumes. I think he's simply a player TO traded for because TO's vaunted youthful d-men aren't ready yet, getting worked up about anything about this guy seems a waste of time to me.

One could also perhaps say it speaks volumes that Martin St. Louis went unclaimed by all teams on waivers when with Calgary years before winning Hart and Art Ross Trophies, but the volumes have nothing to do with his ability as a player.

The comparison is because they're both named Martin, right?

 

[Kin]

Also, I wouldn't just naturally assume that every player gets offered up to the highest bidder, especially if it's a player whose team doesn't value him very highly or it's draft day.

I mean imagine the reverse. Say someone on the Oilers called the Leafs up and asked if...Tyler Biggs were available. The Leafs say "Sure, what'll you give us for him?" and the Oilers respond with "this draft pick we're about to make in a few minutes".

Now, if the offered pick is about what the team values the player at or if there's a player at that draft spot they like...are they really going to say "Hold on a sec, let me phone that offer around to 29 teams before I say yes"? Or will they just decide if the offer fits the bill for them?

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Here's a good article on Marincin from earlier this month: http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

What we can confirm from his 85 games in the NHL is that he is a fantastic skater who can move the puck well and win one-on-one battles. Being 23, he's likely to make a mistake here and there, but he has shown signs of the defensive acumen needed to succeed at the NHL level. This past season was an interesting one for him, as he played very tough minutes at even strength for a weak Oilers team, yet still posted respectable possession numbers and shot share totals.

One number that stands out from the advanced metrics is the percentage of offensive zone starts, or lack thereof, Marincin had last season. Even though he started far more often in the defensive end against tougher competition compared to his teammates on defense, he still managed a respectable Corsi rating relative to his team.

It really does...except Marincin is a good 4 inches taller.  That's pretty awesome.  Expectations for any player need to be tempered but teams give away future solid players all the time, and Stralman is a perfect example.  I think this was a very poor move by Edmonton.

I would think that this player was made available to the highest bidder and if what TO offered was the best offer, I would think this speaks volumes. I think he's simply a player TO traded for because TO's vaunted youthful d-men aren't ready yet, getting worked up about anything about this guy seems a waste of time to me.

One could also perhaps say it speaks volumes that Martin St. Louis went unclaimed by all teams on waivers when with Calgary years before winning Hart and Art Ross Trophies, but the volumes have nothing to do with his ability as a player.

The comparison is because they're both named Martin, right?

You have a gift for analytics.

 

[hobarth]

Here's a good article on Marincin from earlier this month: http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/12/8765883/martin-marincin

What we can confirm from his 85 games in the NHL is that he is a fantastic skater who can move the puck well and win one-on-one battles. Being 23, he's likely to make a mistake here and there, but he has shown signs of the defensive acumen needed to succeed at the NHL level. This past season was an interesting one for him, as he played very tough minutes at even strength for a weak Oilers team, yet still posted respectable possession numbers and shot share totals.

One number that stands out from the advanced metrics is the percentage of offensive zone starts, or lack thereof, Marincin had last season. Even though he started far more often in the defensive end against tougher competition compared to his teammates on defense, he still managed a respectable Corsi rating relative to his team.

It really does...except Marincin is a good 4 inches taller.  That's pretty awesome.  Expectations for any player need to be tempered but teams give away future solid players all the time, and Stralman is a perfect example.  I think this was a very poor move by Edmonton.

I would think that this player was made available to the highest bidder and if what TO offered was the best offer, I would think this speaks volumes. I think he's simply a player TO traded for because TO's vaunted youthful d-men aren't ready yet, getting worked up about anything about this guy seems a waste of time to me.

One could also perhaps say it speaks volumes that Martin St. Louis went unclaimed by all teams on waivers when with Calgary years before winning Hart and Art Ross Trophies, but the volumes have nothing to do with his ability as a player.

The comparison is because they're both named Martin, right?

Somewhere in this jumble of quotes there's the analytics argument and since Edmonton had embraced analytics long before TO are we to wonder that no other team actually understands the meaning of the statistics that are becoming so easily available or may we surmise that analytics is simply a part of evaluating a player. A friend of mine, an Edmonton Oiler fanatic, says his team will not miss him and with very little effort should be able to replace him, why, poor IQ, poor skating and a continuous tendency to give the puck away under pressure.

I question why a d-man from the worst defensive team in the NHL is simply being given away when he has size and whatever other supposed potential benefits he may deliver are so readily apparent to the Leafs and Leaf fans but not so apparent to the rest of the NHL?

I read somewhere that the Leafs were hesitant to expose their actual NHL hopefuls to the Leaf environment last year so players like Granland and McWilliam were graduated while Loov and Percy remained in the AHL, I hope this is true. I think that Marincin is simply a bridge player but not someone people should pin their hopes on but his name is Martin. 

 

[Kin]

Somewhere in this jumble of quotes there's the analytics argument and since Edmonton had embraced analytics long before TO are we to wonder that no other team actually understands the meaning of the statistics that are becoming so easily available...

No, but don't kid yourself into thinking Analytics are a one size fits all thing either. Different teams will analyze the numbers in different ways and value players differently. So just because Edmonton and Toronto are both "into analytics" doesn't mean they'll reach the same conclusions or decide that their needs are the same.

 

[L K]

It's also a trade where an organization with incredibly suspect drafting/player assessment traded with an organization that has a similar reputation but totally revamped their front office.  Edmonton is still running off fossil fuels from the 80s.

It's not a move where the Leafs added a superstar but a player with great size, a decent sample size of at least some NHL success and hopes that he could develop into something more.  At worst he's a warm body on a bad team this year and they didn't give up much of value for him.

 

[hobarth]

Somewhere in this jumble of quotes there's the analytics argument and since Edmonton had embraced analytics long before TO are we to wonder that no other team actually understands the meaning of the statistics that are becoming so easily available...

No, but don't kid yourself into thinking Analytics are a one size fits all thing either. Different teams will analyze the numbers in different ways and value players differently. So just because Edmonton and Toronto are both "into analytics" doesn't mean they'll reach the same conclusions or decide that their needs are the same.

One generality I think all teams accept is that a large player is a good player until he proves otherwise which can be the only reason I can understand that TO resigned Erixon or traded for Marincin. One can look at Bozak's stats and surmise that he might be a below average 2nd line center if the team trading for him hadn't done it's homework, homework that I wonder if TO had done on Marincin since the entire pro-scouting dept. was dismissed. I'd be very surprised that the worst defensive team in the NHL doesn't have the same needs as any other defensively challenged team. 

 

[Kin]

I'd be very surprised that the worst defensive team in the NHL doesn't have the same needs as any other defensively challenged team.

Except that assumes that the value Marincin brings is immediate rather than still being seen as a work in progress. Marincin might not fill a "need" for Edmonton because they have other young defensemen they like more. So Nurse and Klefbom and now Reinhart. Toronto, on the other hand, can offer someone with potential but who might be one or two years away from realizing it more of an on-the-job opportunity.

So it really shouldn't tax you too much to see how one team just starting a rebuild and another team nearing the end of a rebuild might view a player differently.

 

[Bullfrog]

I read somewhere that the Leafs were hesitant to expose their actual NHL hopefuls to the Leaf environment last year so players like Granland and McWilliam were graduated while Loov and Percy remained in the AHL, I hope this is true. I think that Marincin is simply a bridge player but not someone people should pin their hopes on but his name is Martin.

Granberg played 7 games, Percy 9, and MacWilliam 12. So, no?

 

[hobarth]

It's also a trade where an organization with incredibly suspect drafting/player assessment traded with an organization that has a similar reputation but totally revamped their front office.  Edmonton is still running off fossil fuels from the 80s.

It's not a move where the Leafs added a superstar but a player with great size, a decent sample size of at least some NHL success and hopes that he could develop into something more.  At worst he's a warm body on a bad team this year and they didn't give up much of value for him.

I agree that TO gave up little for him but I'm looking for the possibility of improvement not via other organization's castoffs but thru a logical progression of hopefully TO's own prospects. I would prefer to see Loov and Percy being graduated and groomed by what many agree is the best coach in hockey right now, that's growth, leaving them with suspect coaches in the AHL doesn't sit well with me, if they have NHL potential then groom them in the NHL. The possibility of them becoming great AHL d-men doesn't impress or excite me, they need to sink or fly in the NHL unless of course they really aren't considered potential NHL players.

I think TO should be looking for players that are worthy NHL players and also players that can help the team to grow like a 32 year old Robidas instead of a broken down 38 year old Robidas or Marincins or Erixons. I'm looking for a positive direction from the new regime not more settling, no more it is what it is. 

 

[L K]

I read somewhere that the Leafs were hesitant to expose their actual NHL hopefuls to the Leaf environment last year so players like Granland and McWilliam were graduated while Loov and Percy remained in the AHL, I hope this is true. I think that Marincin is simply a bridge player but not someone people should pin their hopes on but his name is Martin.

Granberg played 7 games, Percy 9, and MacWilliam 12. So, no?

MacWilliam is 25.  Marincin is 23.  Granberg is 22.  Percy is 22. Loov is 22.

MacWilliam is not a prospect.  He's an AHL player.

 

[louisstamos]

I'd be very surprised that the worst defensive team in the NHL doesn't have the same needs as any other defensively challenged team.

Except that assumes that the value Marincin brings is immediate rather than still being seen as a work in progress. Marincin might not fill a "need" for Edmonton because they have other young defensemen they like more. So Nurse and Klefbom and now Reinhart. Toronto, on the other hand, can offer someone with potential but who might be one or two years away from realizing it more of an on-the-job opportunity.

So it really shouldn't tax you too much to see how one team just starting a rebuild and another team nearing the end of a rebuild might view a player differently.

This.  The example of Anton Stralman was used earlier in this thread.  Look at how many times he bounced around since Toronto before he stuck.

to Calgary (w/Colin Stuart & 7th rounder): for Wayne Primeau and a 2011 2nd round pick
to Columbus: for 2010 3rd round pick
Was unqualified by Columbus and was UFA
Attended New Jersey training camp, unsigned

He finally signed a contract with NYR on November 3rd, 2011 where at 25 years old, he finally stuck, and over the next few years became one of the better d-men out there, has been to 2 straight SC finals, and was arguably Tampa's best D-Man this year (until Hedman activated beast mode in the playoffs).

He was passed by 4 teams while he was still developing before he established himself as a high-end NHLer.  Sometimes, teams that sell low on players aren't stupid - but they are impatient.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Somewhere in this jumble of quotes there's the analytics argument and since Edmonton had embraced analytics long before TO are we to wonder that no other team actually understands the meaning of the statistics that are becoming so easily available...

No, but don't kid yourself into thinking Analytics are a one size fits all thing either. Different teams will analyze the numbers in different ways and value players differently. So just because Edmonton and Toronto are both "into analytics" doesn't mean they'll reach the same conclusions or decide that their needs are the same.

One generality I think all teams accept is that a large player is a good player until he proves otherwise which can be the only reason I can understand that TO resigned Erixon or traded for Marincin. One can look at Bozak's stats and surmise that he might be a below average 2nd line center if the team trading for him hadn't done it's homework, homework that I wonder if TO had done on Marincin since the entire pro-scouting dept. was dismissed. I'd be very surprised that the worst defensive team in the NHL doesn't have the same needs as any other defensively challenged team.

"We've been working throughout the year, and then especially the last two months, to continue building our book on teams' prospect base and have a very select set of players from other teams that we want should any transactions come up," said Dubas.

Unless their approach changed immediately prior to the draft, I would assume that Marincin was a propsect that was not only researched, but assumed to have some value to the Leafs.

 

[Kin]

He was passed by 4 teams while he was still developing before he established himself as a high-end NHLer.  Sometimes, teams that sell low on players aren't stupid - but they are impatient.

Well, and sometimes it's neither. Sometimes it's just a case of musical chairs. Since Marincin was drafted by the Oilers the Oilers have drafted three young defensemen in higher positions than where Marincin was taken and just traded the #16 and #33 picks for another one. They also signed Justin Schultz who's still just 24.

So if you assume that most of their young guys are near ready to step into the league but that they don't want a defense with nothing buy young players, at some point there just isn't room for a guy like Marincin. That doesn't mean he doesn't have potential or that we should dismiss the good advanced numbers he has.

 

[herman]

http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/16/8786911/oilers-craig-ramsay-petry-marincin-schultz-ference-dcorsi
Marincin started playing in the NHL two seasons ago. In the chart below, he is the top defender (longest positive bars) in dCorsi60, a metric developed by Steven Burtch of PPP.

dCorsi stands for 'delta Corsi'? Here we are using delta to represent differential, specifically the differential between a skater's Expected Corsi and Observed Corsi? The differential between Expected Corsi (as determined by regression) and Observed Corsi depends on the "usage effects" explained by Expected Corsi - this is what you'd expect out of a perfectly average player in an average season if he was handed the same minutes with the same players against the same opposition? In an individual year the number will shift due to random factors and effects but over time (particularly multiple seasons) a lot of this washes away and you're left with a pretty solid measure of player skill relative to their usage.

The above bar-chart shows dCorsi for the Oilers defence over the past three seasons. The 2014-2015 Ramsay Oilers were better deployed than the Smith teams of the previous two seasons. We know this because the variance is smaller between the lowest and highest dCorsi scores. Our old friend Ramsay used his players more effectively than Steve Smith.

A persistent negative dCorsi means that the defender is sinking in relation to Expected Corsi values, the context in which he's positioned. A persistent positive dCorsi means that the player is exceeding expectations and might need to face more difficult competition. A consistently positive dCorsi could also mean that the player in question is very good for his age given a particular context. Experienced coaches like Ramsay have in their minds an intuitive sense of this where to put players when. Ramsay achieved a more-balanced deployment than his predecessor. How he got there? Well, probably nobody knows exactly.

The curious case of Martin Marincin

Marincin has had the highest dCorsi of any of the Oilers defenders of the past two seasons. What this means is that he is one of Edmonton's most important defensive prospects. According to Burtch, players who keep producing high dCorsi are players who drive possession. Marincin's leaps and bounds above expectation given the tough toughs that he's faced and his age. He's exceed expectation more than Jeff Petry (cue collective sigh about trade). As long as Marincin can maintain positive spirits, maybe it's not a terrible idea to have him face such difficult competition.

Maybe, just Maybe Craig Ramsay wasn't a crazy old fool but rather was highly concerned about the development of the Oilers' most important defensive asset. Observing Marincin's excellent play relative to the challenges presented to him, perhaps Ramsay figured Marincin for an "A student" and wasn't about to throw him a bird course.

This is Dubas and the analytics team identifying an unrefined gem, under appreciated (and overworked...) by his former team, and picking him up for a free coupon and some garbage from the back of the closet. #Winniking

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Somewhere in this jumble of quotes there's the analytics argument and since Edmonton had embraced analytics long before TO are we to wonder that no other team actually understands the meaning of the statistics that are becoming so easily available...

No, but don't kid yourself into thinking Analytics are a one size fits all thing either. Different teams will analyze the numbers in different ways and value players differently. So just because Edmonton and Toronto are both "into analytics" doesn't mean they'll reach the same conclusions or decide that their needs are the same.

One generality I think all teams accept is that a large player is a good player until he proves otherwise which can be the only reason I can understand that TO resigned Erixon or traded for Marincin. One can look at Bozak's stats and surmise that he might be a below average 2nd line center if the team trading for him hadn't done it's homework, homework that I wonder if TO had done on Marincin since the entire pro-scouting dept. was dismissed. I'd be very surprised that the worst defensive team in the NHL doesn't have the same needs as any other defensively challenged team.

"We've been working throughout the year, and then especially the last two months, to continue building our book on teams' prospect base and have a very select set of players from other teams that we want should any transactions come up," said Dubas.

Unless their approach changed immediately prior to the draft, I would assume that Marincin was a propsect that was not only researched, but assumed to have some value to the Leafs.

Shanahan said that Dubas and Hunter were fans of Marincin so that's why they made the trade.