Leafs chances for making the playoffs this year...

[bustaheims]

Got it. So really there's only going to be one possible out-of-division matchup in the first round per conference: when both wild cards come from the division.

There could be 2 - even if the wildcards come from separate divisions, both wildcards could conceivably face the winner from the other division.

It works out more like this:

Division A1 vs WC1/WC2
Division A2 vs. Division A3

Division B1 vs. WC1/WC2
Division B2 vs. Division B3

Which division winner gets which wildcard is based on the individual teams' point totals. The higher ranking division winner gets the lower ranking wildcard, even if the higher ranking wildcard plays in their division and the lower one does not.

 

[iwas11in67]

Boston and Detroit are the closest we have to a lock in the Atlantic.
I see it as the Leafs should be battling with Ottawa and Montreal for 3rd, 4th or 5th.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Boston and Detroit are the closest we have to a lock in the Atlantic.
I see it as the Leafs should be battling with Ottawa and Montreal for 3rd, 4th or 5th.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Ottawa is right below Boston and Detroit in the lock category. We'll be duking it out with Montreal and the other Metro teams for the wild cards.

 

[bustaheims]

Boston and Detroit are the closest we have to a lock in the Atlantic.
I see it as the Leafs should be battling with Ottawa and Montreal for 3rd, 4th or 5th.

I wouldn't call Detroit a lock anymore. They're an aging team and, while they added some depth this off-season, one of their key acquisitions is 40 while the other is coming back from a major injury. They're in the fight, but, the only "lock" in the division is really Boston.

 

[bustaheims]

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Ottawa is right below Boston and Detroit in the lock category. We'll be duking it out with Montreal and the other Metro teams for the wild cards.

I don't see it. They lost their leader and their best player is coming back from a major injury. Outside of them, two of their best forwards (Spezza and Michalek) are injury prone and both are coming back from injury plagued seasons themselves. On top of that, they might not Cowen signed by the time the season starts. They're a good team, but there are still a lot of questions surrounding them. If they hit the injury bug in any significant way this season, I don't see them working through it the way they did last season.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Ottawa is right below Boston and Detroit in the lock category. We'll be duking it out with Montreal and the other Metro teams for the wild cards.

I don't see it. They lost their leader and their best player is coming back from a major injury. Outside of them, two of their best forwards (Spezza and Michalek) are injury prone and both are coming back from injury plagued seasons themselves. On top of that, they might not Cowen signed by the time the season starts. They're a good team, but there are still a lot of questions surrounding them. If they hit the injury bug in any significant way this season, I don't see them working through it the way they did last season.

I would say Bobby Ryan is an upgrade on Alfredsson.

 

[bustaheims]

I would say Bobby Ryan is an upgrade on Alfredsson.

In production, yeah, though, not exactly a huge one, but, they lost a lot more than just offensive production when they lost Alfredsson.

 

[ZBBM]

Got it. So really there's only going to be one possible out-of-division matchup in the first round per conference: when both wild cards come from the division.

There could be 2 - even if the wildcards come from separate divisions, both wildcards could conceivably face the winner from the other division.

It works out more like this:

Division A1 vs WC1/WC2
Division A2 vs. Division A3

Division B1 vs. WC1/WC2
Division B2 vs. Division B3

Which division winner gets which wildcard is based on the individual teams' point totals. The higher ranking division winner gets the lower ranking wildcard, even if the higher ranking wildcard plays in their division and the lower one does not.

Thank God you know calculus and can figure this out.  My brain just came oozing out my ear.

 

[princedpw]

I think the Leafs chances are slim unless the Leafs defence plays a little more like they did in games 2-7 of the Boston series.

Question marks are the bubble teams.  A prediction:

Atlantic

Boston
Ottawa 
Detroit
Montreal ?

Toronto
Florida
Tampa 
Buffalo

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh
New York (R)
Philadelphia
New York (I) ?
Washington ?

Carolina ?
New Jersey
Columbus

 

[bustaheims]

Thank God you know calculus and can figure this out.  My brain just came oozing out my ear.

The way the league and others have tried to explain it make it seem a lot more complicated than it really is.

It's almost like a hybrid of the last 2 systems. You basically have 1 & 2 in the conference vs 7 & 8, and then 2 vs 3 in each division.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Man making the top-8 this year is gonna be tough.

 

[nutman]

Man making the top-8 this year is gonna be tough.

We made it last year, and I think we improved our team.
Its just that its hard to see that we are one of the better teams, after getting used to being a outside the playoff team for the last ten years.
we will be in a fight with Bos and ott all season.as for the others your guess is as good as mine who will step up.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If the goaltending improves over last year, we'll be in.

While I guess this is technically true, are you suggesting that our goaltending wasn't very good last season? Because if I had to choose two players as our MVP last season, Reimer would absolutely be one of them. His save percentage was 8th in the league at .924. NHL.com's stats for this only go as far as 1997-98 but we didn't have a goalie put up a SA% that high in that entire time. Reimer was arguably the reason we made the playoffs last season. And while his play last season was certainly amazing, I have my doubts that he or Bernier will be able to replicate that this coming season so the team in front of him better be a lot better defensively.

I am not suggesting that. I'm suggesting that if Reimer regresses and Bernier doesn't prove himself to be a number 1 guy (in general not over Reimer), I'll have my doubts of us having a playoff spot, but I actually expect an improvement over last year with Bernier added to the roster.

 

[Champ Kind]

Busta hit the nail on the head earlier.  People need to remember that it's the 2013-14 Detroit Red Wings coming to the Eatern conference, not the powerhouse from the late 90's.  Plus, they have Alfredsson, which is never a good thing  :

I think Ottawa is going to be a tough team to play against, well coached and they'll get their share of wins.  Losing Alfredsson might actually be a good thing for this team.  But I can't help but think that the Senators are going to have a tough time putting the puck in the net, especially if Spezza doesn't return to form.  Bobby Ryan is now front and centre, no more Getzlaf, Perry and Selanne to do the heavy lifting.  Plus, Ottawa gave up some really nice pieces for him.  Of course, they do have Karlsson (love that guy).

Also, call me crazy, but I think Montreal is an overrated team.  I'm anticipating this year's Habs squad to look more like the last 15 games of last year than the first 40 or so.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I would say Bobby Ryan is an upgrade on Alfredsson.

In production, yeah, though, not exactly a huge one, but, they lost a lot more than just offensive production when they lost Alfredsson.

I think it's debatable what intangible or defensive contributions Alfredsson brought last season. I also think it's likely that if Alfredssln had stayed and Ryan wasn't dealt for, that its likely Alfredsson would regress even further she to age, so I think just in that sense it's an upgrade for them and potentially a significant one. Replacing a player near retirement with a guy around his peak years.

 

[Jalili]

Despite Detroit's near-miss last year I'm still expecting them to make the playoffs this season.

Also, regarding, Bobby Ryan, I think he has one of his best seasons this year in Ottawa.

 

[Kin]

I guess people are universally sold on the Anderson-Lehner pairing but...I don't know. Ottawa looks like a pretty ordinary team if Anderson isn't putting up world-beating numbers.

And while I think Bobby Ryan is going to have a good year, I feel like just comparing him to Alfredsson ignores that he was traded for a pretty good young winger in his own right. Ryan's easily capable of a 30 goal, 60+ point year but I felt Silfverberg was capable of, if not that, something pretty close.

 

[Deebo]

I guess people are universally sold on the Anderson-Lehner pairing but...I don't know. Ottawa looks like a pretty ordinary team if Anderson isn't putting up world-beating numbers.

And while I think Bobby Ryan is going to have a good year, I feel like just comparing him to Alfredsson ignores that he was traded for a pretty good young winger in his own right. Ryan's easily capable of a 30 goal, 60+ point year but I felt Silfverberg was capable of, if not that, something pretty close.

They did add Clarke MacArthur too, who equaled Silfverberg's point total in 8 less games.

 

[Jalili]

I'm interested to see if the new rule on goaltender leg pads changes things up a bit. Apparently it exposes their 5 hole a few more inches than before, and also affects certain goalies more than others.

 

[Kin]

They did add Clarke MacArthur too, who equaled Silfverberg's point total in 8 less games.

Sure, but Silfverberg did that as a 22 year old rookie. My point, I suppose, is that looking at Ryan as a fill-in for Alfredsson doesn't really paint an accurate picture of them going forward.

I think replacing Alfredsson/Silfverberg with Ryan/Mac is, at best, a push for Ottawa.