Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.

[Redleaf]

Im a big fan of Komarov. No, he didn't start the season the way most expected, but he's coming around now. I don't think his skill set is easily replaceable by youthful exuberance. I'd keep him over Bozak. JVR would be a tough loss, but you could definitely get more value back for him in trade.

Komarov just has that tantalizing combination of will, determination, grit and skill. He's going to be a beast in the playoffs. book it.

 

[Kin]

This was deliberate. Of the three centres we could stuff our lesser talent with and still get good results, Matthews is the one. Other teams are going to key in on him regardless, and that opens up space for the rest of the team; treat Matthews' line as a third and he'll burn them there too. It's fewer points for Matthews over the course of the season, but that's not the team goal.

I think one of the reasons successful teams tend to put their better players with other good players is that situationally, when you might want or need a goal in a particular moment, you don't want to blow your chance because you've decided that spreading talent out provides a marginal benefit over the course of a season and as a result don't have a go-to option.

It also might be good long term to not frustrate your franchise player with linemates that maybe don't allow him to shine in a way in which I think it's reasonable to expect he'll want to shine.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Can I talk pipe-dream stuff for a second? 2017 offseason idea: Bring Joe Thornton home for a season on a 1-year deal.

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
x-Thornton-Nylander
Leipsic-Kadri-Brown
Soshnikov-Gauthier-Kapanen
Leivo-Martin

Keeps Nylander on the wing for another season to bolster that position. Although even in San Jose Thornton often switches with Pavelski at centre so we could see the same thing with him and Willie.

Hyman stays with Matthews. Yes, not ideal, but as long as Auston gets to play with our best winger I can accept it.

It's a pipe-dream so Martin isn't in the line-up anymore. That 4th line was actually the Marlies 4th line for large portions of last season, so there's familiarity there. You can swap Sosh out for Leivo too.

Komarov and Bozak are both gone. JVR can possibly fill that X spot if the team can't find a suitable return for him on the market and if there's enough cap space left over after Thornton and Shattenkirk (because again pipe dream).

 

[herman]

I think one of the reasons successful teams tend to put their better players with other good players is that situationally, when you might want or need a goal in a particular moment, you don't want to blow your chance because you've decided that spreading talent out provides a marginal benefit over the course of a season and as a result don't have a go-to option.

It also might be good long term to not frustrate your franchise player with linemates that maybe don't allow him to shine in a way in which I think it's reasonable to expect he'll want to shine.

Spreading the talent in the lineup card doesn't preclude them from adjusting situationally; they can always hot swap goal scoring onto their top two lines should the need arise (or more defense). Post-PK you can throw out Nylander - Matthews - Griffiths, followed by my Kadri line as Leipsic - Kapanen / Hyman - Froese take a breather.

If we're talking about the intangibles of how Matthews feels, I'd also like to bring up how hard his linemates will play to keep their spots on his wings.

In any case, I do agree with your assessment that a strong LW option would be a solid target, and I don't think keeping JvR is the best course. If a stronger centre option comes in instead, Nylander would be fun on LW.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sorry Herman, you gotta stop trying to make Griffith happen.

 

[Kin]

If we're talking about the intangibles of how Matthews feels, I'd also like to bring up how hard his linemates will play to keep their spots on his wings.

As opposed to the oh so common lackadaisical, job-risking effort level of guys not paired with wunderkinds.

 

[herman]

If you're okay with making Brendan Leipsic happen, why does everyone seem to hate Seth Griffith?

Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If you're okay with making Brendan Leipsic happen, why does everyone seem to hate Seth Griffith?

Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

Well, the fact that Griffith has had opportunities on 3 different teams now in the past year and was placed on waivers by all of them. Players generally don't get a 4th crack at this. Maybe that's not fair but that's often how it is.

 

[Kin]

If you're okay with making Brendan Leipsic happen, why does everyone seem to hate Seth Griffith?

Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

Leipsic's more than a year younger, went a few rounds higher in the same draft and hasn't been looked at and then given away for nothing by three fairly bright organizations?

Also, re: production at similar stages:

Draft -1: Leipsic(.49ppg), Griffiths(.18)
Draft Eligible: Griffith(.91), Leipsic(.89)
Draft +1: Leipsic(1.76), Griffith(1.25)
Draft +2: Leipsic(1.52), Griffith(1.50)
Draft +3: Griffith(.76), Leipsic(.73)
Draft +4: Leipsic(.83), Griffith(.79)

Griffith doesn't really seem to have significantly "better" production in any of those years. Leipsic has some though.

 

[Bullfrog]

Can I talk pipe-dream stuff for a second? 2017 offseason idea: Bring Joe Thornton home for a season on a 1-year deal.

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
x-Thornton-Nylander
Leipsic-Kadri-Brown
Soshnikov-Gauthier-Kapanen
Leivo-Martin

That'd make it more difficult to sign Tavares, no? 

edit: .......especially since he's apparently still under contract that season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That'd make it more difficult to sign Tavares, no? 

edit: .......especially since he's apparently still under contract that season.

Duh. Thornton retires after that one season after winning the Cup and Tavares signs to replace him.

 

[Frank E]

That'd make it more difficult to sign Tavares, no? 

edit: .......especially since he's apparently still under contract that season.

Duh. Thornton retires after that one season after winning the Cup and Tavares signs to replace him.

This is excellent general managing right here.

 

[herman]

Well, the fact that Griffith has had opportunities on 3 different teams now in the past year and was placed on waivers by all of them. Players generally don't get a 4th crack at this. Maybe that's not fair but that's often how it is.

Leipsic's more than a year younger, went a few rounds higher in the same draft and hasn't been looked at and then given away for nothing by three fairly bright organizations?

Yeah, I get that. Those are optics of not producing in a limited role (he did pretty well in Florida, points production aside). He's exactly the type of player I like management shaking the trees for, and he plays the type of game I like the Leafs to play.

I just think he should get more of a chance, as he is comparable to Leipsic and Brown (who are both serviceable middle to bottom NHL producers that can play higher). Here, he just didn't have the right slot available. In Florida, he was sent down to build him back up after sustaining a concussion.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

This was a table that was posted in that reddit link that was largely used as evidence for why Griffith is "actually good":

LINE	CF%	XGF%	GF%
Griffith-Barkov-Jagr	63.20%	66.80%	77.00%
Jokinen-Barkov-Jagr	59.40%	63.90%	74.40%
Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr	54.20%	57.80%	68.90%
Marchessault-Barkov-Jagr	54.50%	49.30%	42.80%
Pirri-Barkov-Jagr	55.00%	46.80%	61.00%

The argument was essentially Griffith helped Jagr and Barkov post the best results they've ever had.

I'll start by saying: I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Second, when I did try to pull up the numbers for myself, I didn't get the same results the OP did. For instance, Puckalytics gives the Jokinen trio a 83.3% GF and 57.2% CF when they're together. Since the article doesn't specify a time line, I'm assuming that they're using career numbers, and not just this season. The post specifically says that Griffith helps Barkov and Jagr put up "flat out Goal differentials that they?d ever put up together". But right there Jokinen's numbers are actually better. With that said, that Jokinen line has only played about 107 minutes together, so it's a pretty small sample size. Which leads me to another problem...

... Why didn't the OP include TOI there? Probably because most of them are incredibly small like Jokinen's. Pirri only has about 66 minutes with those two, and again Puckalytics' numbers are different than the table: 66.7 GF% and 55.8% CF. Looking at Griffith's numbers specifically, he has about 87 minutes of ice-time with those two. Griffith averaged about 12 minutes with Florida so means they roughly played 7-8 games together. That just doesn't seem like nearly enough date to make any conclusions.

Anyways, yeah, the article as a whole just doesn't really pass the smell test. And quite frankly the Florida Panthers are the most analytically-inclined organization in the entire NHL. If those numbers held as much weight as the OP suggests they do I'd have to imagine they wouldn't have given him away for nothing.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I get that. Those are optics of not producing in a limited role (he did pretty well in Florida, points production aside). He's exactly the type of player I like management shaking the trees for, and he plays the type of game I like the Leafs to play.

I really don't think those teams, none of whom are dumb, taking a pass on him would do so strictly on the basis of the optics of his lack of production.

I just think he should get more of a chance, as he is comparable to Leipsic and Brown (who are both serviceable middle to bottom NHL producers that can play higher). Here, he just didn't have the right slot available. In Florida, he was sent down to build him back up after sustaining a concussion.

Realistically that chance isn't going to come here. Between Brown, Marner, Sosh, Kapanen, Nylander if you don't move him next year...there's just no real opportunity for someone who realistically has a very limited upside.

Just seems like a weird hill to fight on.

 

[Coco-puffs]

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/2/21/14663294/why-isnt-seth-griffith-in-the-nhl-toronto-marlies-toronto-maple-leafs

The article focuses mostly on the fact that Griffith doesn't really shoot the puck a whole lot, even at the AHL level.

I chose to look at iCorsi, or individual shot attempts, because there is a strong relationship between high shot rates in junior or minor leagues and future NHL success.

Here is the list of all Leafs players with lower iCorsi/60 than Griffith: Roman Polak, Leo Komarov, Frederik Gauthier. He is not shooting in the NHL like a regular NHLer.

What Griffith has shown he can do is at least participate effectively on a high CF% line, although his NHL stats this year are slightly puffed up by his exalted Florida linemates. He isn?t a negative. He doesn?t make huge mistakes, or turn the puck over. He isn?t a liability in the defensive zone.

What he hasn?t shown is that he is a positive in any way. If Nikita ?you shot that from where?? Soshnikov is a better points producer with the two worst linemates on the Leafs, then maybe Griffith really is a tweener, and not ready for the big show at all.

He?s also not cast in bronze at his age. He may be able to develop a more aggressive offensive game, and as a place to do that, the Leafs organization is likely one of the best. But those AHL points of his, now or in the past, do not shout out obvious NHLer to me. Not once you dig beneath the surface.

 

[herman]

Just seems like a weird hill to fight on.

Boredom has a lot to do with it, and you guys haven't gone the 'ignore the crazy person' route yet

I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos (Pirri is with the Rangers this year). Reilly Smith is the fifth.

 

[Frank E]

Just seems like a weird hill to fight on.

Boredom has a lot to do with it, and you guys haven't gone the 'ignore the crazy person' route yet

I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos. Reilly Smith is the fifth.

I remember a few years back when someone had a huge crush on DiDomenico...can't remember who it was though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos (Pirri is with the Rangers this year). Reilly Smith is the fifth.

Ah cheers, didn't know CH added WOWYs and such. Although there's still some errors, like the fact that the Jokinen trio still shows up as having the best GF% together even though the article claims the Griffith line has that distinction.

 

[herman]

Ah cheers, didn't know CH added WOWYs and such. Although there's still some errors, like the fact that the Jokinen trio still shows up as having the best GF% together even though the article claims the Griffith line has that distinction.

I just noticed that section a week or two ago myself. It's pretty fun to play with!

I do wish Babcock juggled the lines a bit more this year so that we could see where players fit together (check out Matthews - Kadri - Nylander).