Leafs @ Golden Knights - Nov. 19th, 10:00pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[rdowdall]

No. A bounce the other way and we are still having the same convo. They are supposed to be contenders and they haven't dominated anybody all season. Their defense is fatally flawed and needs to be fixed.  Babcock and Dubas each have a big slice of blame.

It's one thing to maintain a positive outlook. But there is such a thing as being Pollyanna-ish and that's what that comment came off like.

The comment isn't wrong though.  They did play a good third period, so you can't really criticize someone for focusing on it.

This is what is causing the discourse among Leaf fans right now.  Every fan has a different tipping point and belief about the team.

Herman has outlined his beliefs about this team quite clearly.  He believes that their failures are tied to the turnover and the new systems that have been put in to place.  Those are fixable things and they will sort themselves out at some point and then this team will get rolling and this bad start will be a memory.  That's entirely possible.

Others on the board think there is fundamentally wrong with the team and the way they play.  They focus on the mistakes and the lack of results and use the Newtonian logic that an object in motion will remain in motion until acted upon by an unbalanced opposite force to voice their concern over how they feel things are going to play out.  They aren't wrong either.  It may be that change is needed.

The only thing that we as fans can do though is watch and hypothesize.  We won't really know what's going to happen until it actually happens.  That's the beauty of these boards.  We can discuss our theories and offer up how we see things, but we shouldn't really judge one another for having a different point of view, and we shouldn't make it personal if we can avoid it.

Personally I come here because I like to see the banter.  It helps me to know that other people feel the same way I do about this team.  I take all the opinions and then I decompress.  I like Nik's approach of not letting the games affect him from an emotional stand point, because if you really think about it, he's right.  There isn't anything we can do about it.  So just watch the game, soak it in, and discuss it afterwards.

I also get how people can feel emotionally invested in the team.  We have a part of our brain that mirrors the emotions of others.  It's the part of the brain that controls our empathy.  So when we see others upset, we get upset.  When we see others happy, we get happy.  I can totally see how that would play in to how people feel about this team. 

At the end of the day there are people being a paid a lot of money to make a decision about this.  Is this a team that needs an external change to get going, or is this a team that can fix this by staying the course?  We aren't going to know until this all plays out.

 

[Arn]

There?s a reason I prefer coming here than say Facebook or Reddit, and it ain?t the ventilation.

Most here have also been around longer, and seen more iterations of this team. Not sure about anyone else but I?ve seen baaaad, and this is a good team in the midst of bad results, which is a difference.

I come here cos, well, there's not too many places to actively interact with other Leafs fans "live" as games are happening here in Belfast. Also because sitting up to 3am to watch games probably isn't the most sane thing to do so having a little bit of company while doing so certainly made me feel a bit less mad, particularly over the last decade where I was tuning in at midnight expecting to watch the team lose.

But there was always a bit of black humour and finding the positives among some pretty disappointing times.

Now that the "Leafs are actually good", to coin an old thread title, I find it less fun to come along as actually the balance of "venting" over a good team has kind of tipped too far to the shouty negative over the black humour "all in this together" mentality.

There are constructive points to be made certainly about how the team is playing and the results and the GM choices and the coaching. Not everyone will see the game the same way. But games to me are meant to be entertaining and while winning is of course more entertaining than losing, following along in here isn't as fun and entertaining at the minute.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

As a great sage once said;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzpndHtdl9A

 

[Bender]

Is it too early to think about tanking?

 

[dappleganger]

As a great sage once said;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzpndHtdl9A

Is he available to back up?

 

[dappleganger]

Here's where I think the problem lies, the two players the Leafs brought in to make the them better on defense are Ceci and Barrie and they have been the two least effective players in the line up.

I'm not trying to pick on them here, but if you look at the stats, everyone is pretty much inline with expectations, except for Ceci and Barrie. Fix them and you fix the Leafs.

 

[Strangelove]

Here's where I think the problem lies, the two players the Leafs brought in to make the them better on defense are Ceci and Barrie and they have been the two least effective players in the line up.

I'm not trying to pick on them here, but if you look at the stats, everyone is pretty much inline with expectations, except for Ceci and Barrie. Fix them and you fix the Leafs.

And Tavares. And Marner. And Johnsson. And Kapanen. And Rielly. And (sort of) Matthews.

 

[herman]

I thought Matthews played well last night. He and Nylander were the only ones generating for most of the game, aside from Mikheyev?s solo sprints.

One of the big hurdles for expectation management was the performance of last year?s top line. Tavares, Marner, Hyman, and Rielly all put up career numbers riding a ridiculous on-ice shooting percentage. It has not only regressed this season, but has been compounded by staggered injuries to basically all 4 of them.

 

[Deebo]

I'm not the best at observing defensemen play, but Ceci hasn't looked that bad to to me.

 

[wnc096]

Here's where I think the problem lies, the two players the Leafs brought in to make the them better on defense are Ceci and Barrie and they have been the two least effective players in the line up.

I'm not trying to pick on them here, but if you look at the stats, everyone is pretty much inline with expectations, except for Ceci and Barrie. Fix them and you fix the Leafs.

That is true...the PK as well.  it seems like a leafs penalty is almost 50/50 resulting in a goal lately

 

[Deebo]

Here's where I think the problem lies, the two players the Leafs brought in to make the them better on defense are Ceci and Barrie and they have been the two least effective players in the line up.

I'm not trying to pick on them here, but if you look at the stats, everyone is pretty much inline with expectations, except for Ceci and Barrie. Fix them and you fix the Leafs.

That is true...the PK as well.  it seems like a leafs penalty is almost 50/50 resulting in a goal lately

I saw yesterday during the game that it was down to under 70% over the last 10 games.

 

[Strangelove]

I thought Matthews played well last night. He and Nylander were the only ones generating for most of the game, aside from Mikheyev?s solo sprints.

One of the big hurdles for expectation management was the performance of last year?s top line. Tavares, Marner, Hyman, and Rielly all put up career numbers riding a ridiculous on-ice shooting percentage. It has not only regressed this season, but has been compounded by staggered injuries to basically all 4 of them.

Regressed is kind of an understatement. The lack of 5-on-5 production from that line is pretty mind-blowing.

 

[Strangelove]

The Leafs' penalty kill is a stagnant box. The Leafs' powerplay is also a box with minimal movement, which basically limits it to outside shots.

At even strength, the Leafs' offence struggles mightily to generate quality scoring chances from the slot, and instead relies on low percentage shots from the perimeter. Mainly, they play dump and chase and rely on a grinding, puck-retrieval brand which is completely unsuited to our players. I don't think Tavares et al. have forgotten how to play hockey, but our player deployment does not take advantage of the team's skillset.

These are systems-related problems that should improve once Babcock is fired into the sun.

 

[dappleganger]

Here's where I think the problem lies, the two players the Leafs brought in to make the them better on defense are Ceci and Barrie and they have been the two least effective players in the line up.

I'm not trying to pick on them here, but if you look at the stats, everyone is pretty much inline with expectations, except for Ceci and Barrie. Fix them and you fix the Leafs.

And Tavares. And Marner. And Johnsson. And Kapanen. And Rielly. And (sort of) Matthews.

Points Average  2019-2020      2018-2019

Matthews          1.17/g            1.07/g
Marner              1.00/g            1.15/g
Rielly                0.74/g            0.88/g
Tavares            0.88/g            1.07/g
Kapanen            0.52/g            0.56/g
Johnsson          0.52/g            0.59/g

Ceci                  0.17/g            0.35/g
Barrie              0.30/g            0.76/g


While everyone is down slightly except for Matthews, they're still close to last years point per game averages. Ceci and Barrie are both producing at 50% of last years averages. While some downturn was expected for Barrie considering his change in usage, Ceci has little excuse with his top pairing with Rielly.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/GoldenKnights/status/1197024181742817281
What a great moment.

 

[Strangelove]

Here's where I think the problem lies, the two players the Leafs brought in to make the them better on defense are Ceci and Barrie and they have been the two least effective players in the line up.

I'm not trying to pick on them here, but if you look at the stats, everyone is pretty much inline with expectations, except for Ceci and Barrie. Fix them and you fix the Leafs.

And Tavares. And Marner. And Johnsson. And Kapanen. And Rielly. And (sort of) Matthews.

Points Average  2019-2020      2018-2019

Matthews          1.17/g            1.07/g
Marner              1.00/g            1.15/g
Rielly                0.74/g            0.88/g
Tavares            0.88/g            1.07/g
Kapanen            0.52/g            0.56/g
Johnsson          0.52/g            0.59/g

Ceci                  0.17/g            0.35/g
Barrie              0.30/g            0.76/g


While everyone is down slightly except for Matthews, they're still close to last years point per game averages. Ceci and Barrie are both producing at 50% of last years averages. While some downturn was expected for Barrie considering his change in usage, Ceci has little excuse with his top pairing with Rielly.

If you do the numbers 5-on-5 I think you'll see an even starker difference.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm not the best at observing defensemen play, but Ceci hasn't looked that bad to to me.

Defensively, I don't have much to complain about. But, Ceci is where offense and transition go to die. He isn't creative and panics with pressure. His go-to move with an opponent bearing down on him seems to be to skate it to the boards and muck it out rather than skating or passing.

 

[Strangelove]

I'm not the best at observing defensemen play, but Ceci hasn't looked that bad to to me.

Defensively, I don't have much to complain about. But, Ceci is where offense and transition go to die. He isn't creative and panics with pressure. His go-to move with an opponent bearing down on him seems to be to skate it to the boards and muck it out rather than skating or passing.

Oddly, that seems to be exactly why Babcock loves playing him so much.

 

[Highlander]

Didn't watch the game, glad I didn't...would have only watched to see Engvall and not reading to much about his game. I will start to watch when and if they turn it around, if not I have enough other stuff in my life I have to deal with that I have to sort out, that actually means something.
We can't forget this is just a game and real life is what matters.

Hopefully see you all soon. S.I. don't blow your gasket, I know it's frustrating.

 

[Highlander]

Ceci getting way, way too much icetime.

Maybe they are just showcasing him as durable for other teams who need time to be soaked up..Let's hope so.
Kind of reminds me of MLB where a team plays a really iffy pitcher over and over just because he can handle 200+ innings. Dickie anyone???