Leafs @ Lightning - Dec. 29th, 7:30pm - SNO, Fan 590

[azzurri63]

Siegal's latest column is exactly what I and others on here have been saying for ages. Nothing has changed. Don't know how many times I have posted that. The Phaneuf and Clarkson signings were a joke. You could have put many Marlie forwards in Clarkson's spot in the lineup and it wouldn't have been worse, probably better and you would have saved some dollars. Phaneuf well you all know what I think of him. 7 more years of his ineptitude at 7 mil per. Nonis should have been let go for those 2 signings unless they were not his decisions. Kessel as much as I think he's a bonafide sniper and I still can see what Burke was thinking when he made the deal it's time for him to be dealt. Too many nights off, lazy, won't go anywhere near the corners. Plain and simple way too soft. The problem I think with the Leafs is management not taking the time to build. Think part of that may be the fans who are the best in hockey. They have suffered far too long and the pressure to succeed there is immense thus GM's like Burke, Nonis, JFJ we can go on and on don't stand pat. They don't try and rebuild, they sign FA's to appease the fans and most of the signings have been a mistake. Problem also is the willingness for FA's to come to Toronto thus we are left with signing the leftovers. The team has been as I have said numerous times spinning their wheels for a long time. They should have started the rebuild years ago and hope to have landed McDavid. Siegal's writeup is exactly what McGown said on his program weeks ago. Team is not going to go anywhere with Kessel and Phaneuf as your core players. Personally I have blamed Wilson and Carlyle for the same crap for the last 5 years or so but I think a lot has to fall on the players. I'm not sure if they don't want to play defence or what but I don't care what system the coach is preaching there is no way you should be getting outplayed, outmuscled and outshoot badly on a nightly basis. As I also have stated what is management seeing? Do they not see what we see game after game? Are their hands tied? Do something because the team is not going anywhere.

 

[Bullfrog]

So I'm guessing the game-in-six doesn't tell the whole story. I just watched it and things didn't look that bad. The commentators were complementary about Reimer's play, the offense looked good, the Lightning's goals were good goals, etc. It was clear how badly Clarkson played on the game-winner though.

So, is it fair to say the in between stuff just wasn't good?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So, is it fair to say the in between stuff just wasn't good?

They got their butts kicked possession-wise and coughed up a 2-goal lead. Just a typical Leafs game.

 

[bustaheims]

So I'm guessing the game-in-six doesn't tell the whole story. I just watched it and things didn't look that bad. The commentators were complementary about Reimer's play, the offense looked good, the Lightning's goals were good goals, etc. It was clear how badly Clarkson played on the game-winner though.

So, is it fair to say the in between stuff just wasn't good?

I guess it's hard to show the Leafs going 20 minutes without a shot on net in a 6 minute clip.

 

[Bullfrog]

That bad, huh? Kind of glad I missed it.

Played Lego Batman 3 on the kid's new WiiU instead.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Lost 5 of 6 since the hot streak...the 18 wheeler powered up the hill by opportune scoring and Bernier has broken through the guard rails and is heading for the edge.

The wheels are coming off so fast it's going to be a sled going over the cliff this year.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

The problem being that the Leafs have way too much talent to be in that elite class of awfulness.  The Leafs even with their current level of play will likely be in the 6-10th spot in the East by the end of the year.  Their goaltenders are too good, and they have enough offense sitting in their top 6 that can score enough to win games.  Where the problems partially lie is in how the team is being used.

We said similar things about the team last season, and they ended up with the 8th overall pick. Their numbers this season are starting to trend right back towards those from last season, so, a similar result shouldn't be unexpected - especially if they actually move bodies out at the trade deadline this season. If they keep playing the calibre of hockey they have in recent weeks, they won't be in a position where they can really justify not doing so. They may not be able to get top 5 pick bad, but, with the quality of this year's draft class, they can probably still pick up a top-end talent inside the top 8 or so.

Speaking of trending back, these are some pretty sobering charts in one of Mirtle's more recent articles:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-explaining-the-leafs-growing-woes-in-three-simple-charts/article22227447/

This team is so confounding.  I think I'm ready for the core to be broken up, because it's obviously not working.  And I can't imagine Shanahan is looking at Kessel in a favorable light, regardless of how many goals he scores.  It should be interesting to see what he does after his long look at these guys.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Also, I'd like a coach to take the reigns off Gardiner, he's never going to be a shutdown man or even more than decent in his own end, but he has shown flashes of all world ability attacking from the back end, encourage that and see what you've got.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

The problem being that the Leafs have way too much talent to be in that elite class of awfulness.  The Leafs even with their current level of play will likely be in the 6-10th spot in the East by the end of the year.  Their goaltenders are too good, and they have enough offense sitting in their top 6 that can score enough to win games.  Where the problems partially lie is in how the team is being used.

We said similar things about the team last season, and they ended up with the 8th overall pick. Their numbers this season are starting to trend right back towards those from last season, so, a similar result shouldn't be unexpected - especially if they actually move bodies out at the trade deadline this season. If they keep playing the calibre of hockey they have in recent weeks, they won't be in a position where they can really justify not doing so. They may not be able to get top 5 pick bad, but, with the quality of this year's draft class, they can probably still pick up a top-end talent inside the top 8 or so.

Speaking of trending back, these are some pretty sobering charts in one of Mirtle's more recent articles:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-explaining-the-leafs-growing-woes-in-three-simple-charts/article22227447/

This team is so confounding.  I think I'm ready for the core to be broken up, because it's obviously not working.  And I can't imagine Shanahan is looking at Kessel in a favorable light, regardless of how many goals he scores.  It should be interesting to see what he does after his long look at these guys.

The only players I'd look at keeping are JVR, Kadri, Bernier and Rielly. Unmovable players are most likely Phaneuf (you never know though..) and Clarkson.

Everyone else should be made available. I'd imagine Kessel should command a very good return. Lupul has to go. Great offence but horrid defence. Ditto Kessel.

EDIT: I meant that Kessel plays horrible defence (well he doesn't play defence at all really). He's been incredibly ineffective the last few games and has given up on tons of pucks in the offensive zone. I get that he's not a cycle player, but after the rush has died he just floats around until the puck is out of the zone. He doesn't have to be traded but I don't think this team is going anywhere with him (unless a Datsyuk or Bergeron is on his line).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

This is what annoys me about Bozak.  This image doesn't show it great, but on the 2nd goal Lupul was in deep and Holzer was up high - not in itself terrible if they're switched positions.  Kessel's at the near point, far point is open and that's where the shot comes from.  If you watch the video, Bozak just glides in the middle of the ice towards the Leafs net but doesn't pick anyone up.  Holzer looks caught but Bozak doesn't look around, doesn't pick anyone up, doesn't do much of anything.  And it happens all the time.

Now, if he was an elite C?  I'd look past it more.  If he was a winger?  Again, would be able to stomach it more.  But this is a significant part of the Leafs' defensive game and he seems lost.  This isn't a winger who more or less can just go up and down the half-boards.

 

[TML fan]

Bozak is pretty much exactly where he should be. Lupul and Holzer are the ones out to lunch.

 

[bustaheims]

Bozak is pretty much exactly where he should be. Lupul and Holzer are the ones out to lunch.

Lupul and Holzer are both covering someone. Bozak is off in no man's land being a rover.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Bozak is pretty much exactly where he should be. Lupul and Holzer are the ones out to lunch.

Lupul and Holzer are both covering someone. Bozak is off in no man's land being a rover.

Basic rule of thumb for a C is if they are going to play in the middle of the ice they need to recognize who is already being covered by the other defenders on the team (both D & F) and help to fill in where he's needed.  In that scenario, he's not defending anyone, he's not blocking a pass, he was sort of drifting towards the net/towards the puck side, and if he had looked around to see what needed covering he might've been able to get up on the trailer who took the pass.

But the video really shows it better.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Bozak is pretty much exactly where he should be. Lupul and Holzer are the ones out to lunch.

Lupul and Holzer are both covering someone. Bozak is off in no man's land being a rover.

Basic rule of thumb for a C is if they are going to play in the middle of the ice they need to recognize who is already being covered by the other defenders on the team (both D & F) and help to fill in where he's needed.  In that scenario, he's not defending anyone, he's not blocking a pass, he was sort of drifting towards the net/towards the puck side, and if he had looked around to see what needed covering he might've been able to get up on the trailer who took the pass.

But the video really shows it better.

It doesn't exonerate him of any guilt, but IIRC he was coming off the bench on a change and getting back to his end to catch up to the play.

A) He'd just come on.

B) I'm not sure if Hedman was on the ice, or had just come on as well, making him hard to pick up.

Either way he missed his assignment. It seemed to me that he was trying to provide support on the puck in case the TB player lost the puck along the near boards.

Like I said, he's at fault, but it's far from the worst defensive play I've seen from Leafs forwards (or other teams for that matter) this year.

 

[freer]

If Nonis is GM in name only, then that leaves me with the conclusion that Shanahan is just as inept.

I still want to believe that this is all part of a plan. Suck this year to get a good pick in a really good draft. Trade away a bunch of players at the deadline for picks/prospects. Clean house in terms of the coach and GM. Start real vision in summer 2015.

This is EXACTLY how I was hoping this year was going to play out as well although I am very uncharacteristically pessimistic.

2 things that bother me with the Leafs is Lewieke getting out because he alleges that the ownership Board was dysfunctional PLUS who the Leafs were willing to sign long term when the players had obvious flaws. 

I know it might sound cheesy but it is accurate to say 'good enough is the enemy of best'.  Just because Kessel and Phaneuf were the Leafs best forward and defense man, a person doesn't automatically assume they are who you build on.  Nonis seemed to though.  He did it with the 2nd highest paid forward Clarkson as well.  Clarkson might have been the most coveted forward of the UFA class but when you are in a capped spending system you must remain patient.  I remember Nik commented in those terms if Phaneuf should be signed or not back before Phaneuf was extended. 

Lastly, there are a few teams who have made it to the Finals more than once in the 'cap era' and they include Chicago, Detroit, LA, Boston and Pittsburgh.  Although their style of play is all different the one thing they have in common is their core were all drafted with a few UFA signings and trades.  The Leafs this season typically only have 3 drafted players in the lineup: Kadri, Komarov and Rielly.  I believe we had a game this year when Bernier was in goal instead of Reimer when the 19 players hit the ice, the Leafs only had one of them as a Leaf draft pick...Kadri.

So yeah, I would love to see a house cleaning with the coach, GM and players (Kessel, Clarkson, Phaneuf and Reimer) for draft picks/young assets.

So even though they are still in a playoff spot, you want then to trade all the teams talent for picks that may not pan out. I never got this theory that picks are better then players who are in the NHL already.  McDavid could be a flop or hit and may never play a game in the NHL.

 

[2badknees]

So even though they are still in a playoff spot, you want then to trade all the teams talent for picks that may not pan out. I never got this theory that picks are better then players who are in the NHL already.  McDavid could be a flop or hit and may never play a game in the NHL.

I'd rather see a full rebuild now, over taking the chance of the team's unsustainable play of low possession/high shot differential making the playoffs.

I guess its a telling state of affairs when "making the playoffs" is the panacea for some fans, rather than constructing a top NHL team that can challenge for a cup over a multi-year stretch.

 

[Highlander]

Rebuild with what? With the cap, the old age tear down is gone. Today teams are built with some cornerstone building blocks, the draft, the odd good trade and aquiring free agents whom make sense (not Clarkson) where you don't blow the bank. So in your estimation are there any untouchable players?
I believe the Leafs have the core to become a winner, we are one Center and two defensemen away.

 

[herman]

I believe the Leafs have the core to become a winner, we are one Center and two defensemen  and a puck-possession system away.

 

[Highlander]

THanks Herman for completing the thought.