Leafs re-sign Ben Scrivens

[Redleaf]

The Leafs have less than $2.5 million committed to goalies next year.  That could be a stroke of genius by Burke, or the final line of Burke's resume in Toronto.  :-\

A lot of the advanced stats guys I follow on Twitter claim you shouldn't be spending much on goaltenders due to their unpredictability.  Maybe we'll come out on the right side of it for once.

I think a more judicious analysis would claim you shouldn't overspend on goalies.  You have to put up decent money to get a decent goalie (obviously).  And, when you get hold of a Lundqvist or a Brodeur, you pay them very well.  The goalie is the most important member of the team, after all.

Potvin correctly summarized the consensus thinking of most of the advanced stats guys.  Most would say that given the choice of signing one of the top 15 guys in the league and paying current market value for that (5-6million) or signing one of the guys in the 15-30 group, you should sign one of the guys in the 15-30 group and use the extra cash to buy better skaters.  Goalies are hard to predict and the deltas between them are getting smaller so the fact of the matter is that when you get a top 15 guy, you usually overspend relative to his improvement in team success.

Not really sure I buy that theory. Goaltending is, without a doubt, the most important position in the game, and without a true number one goalie between the pipes the rest of the team can look really bad. A guy like Luongo can come in and essentially be the difference between being a playoff team or not being one. The odds of that happening drop off substantially with unproven or bottom end, if you will, goaltending.

 

[bustaheims]

Potvin correctly summarized the consensus thinking of most of the advanced stats guys.  Most would say that given the choice of signing one of the top 15 guys in the league and paying current market value for that (5-6million) or signing one of the guys in the 15-30 group, you should sign one of the guys in the 15-30 group and use the extra cash to buy better skaters.  Goalies are hard to predict and the deltas between them are getting smaller so the fact of the matter is that when you get a top 15 guy, you usually overspend relative to his improvement in team success.

Where that kind of falls apart is when you look at post season success - the overwhelming majority of Stanley Cup champs have a goalie who would easily be considered a top 15 goalie and a significant portion had goalies who were Vezina winners/finalists.

 

[Redleaf]

Potvin correctly summarized the consensus thinking of most of the advanced stats guys.  Most would say that given the choice of signing one of the top 15 guys in the league and paying current market value for that (5-6million) or signing one of the guys in the 15-30 group, you should sign one of the guys in the 15-30 group and use the extra cash to buy better skaters.  Goalies are hard to predict and the deltas between them are getting smaller so the fact of the matter is that when you get a top 15 guy, you usually overspend relative to his improvement in team success.

Where that kind of falls apart is when you look at post season success - the overwhelming majority of Stanley Cup champs have a goalie who would easily be considered a top 15 goalie and a significant portion had goalies who were Vezina winners/finalists.

Agreed. In order to be a contending team in the future the Leafs need to have one of the top 10 or 15 goaltenders in the league. If Luongo can step in and fill that spot than the Leafs will have filled the most important role on a team looking to move up the standings and hopefully contend in the not so distant future. Without that type of high end goaltending the team is mediocre, and at best half decent.

 

[nutman]

and two seasons ago LA's goalie was a top 15? or at the start of last season did he have that rating.

 

[bustaheims]

and two seasons ago LA's goalie was a top 15? or at the start of last season did he have that rating.

Quick was 6th in the NHL in GAA among qualified goalies in 10/11 and tied for 14th in Sv%. His 6 shut outs that season tied him for 6th in the league in that category. So, yes, going into this past season, I would have said Quick was very much one of the top 15 goalies in the league, possibly even in the top 10.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

and two seasons ago LA's goalie was a top 15? or at the start of last season did he have that rating.

Quick was 6th in the NHL in GAA among qualified goalies in 10/11 and tied for 14th in Sv%. His 6 shut outs that season tied him for 6th in the league in that category. So, yes, going into this past season, I would have said Quick was very much one of the top 15 goalies in the league, possibly even in the top 10.

And the year before that he was 1 win shy of 40 as a 24-year old. Quick becoming a top NHL goalie really shouldn't have come as that much of a surprise.

 

[Kessel Run]

Pretty good deal. Really hope one of Reimer or Scrivens can put it together.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It was brought up earlier that since Scrivens was on a two-way contract he would be able to be waived and sent to the AHL during the lockout and not be subject to re-entry waivers once the NHL came back. He would have had to be waived prior to the CBA expiring for this to happen though and he wasn't. Steve Simmons has tweeted that the Leafs didn't want to risk a team claiming him off waivers. A few of us in the past have debated whether Scrivens would make it through waivers and while I still feel he would it's a risk I also wouldn't take considering he's slated to be our back-up still.

It'd also be an unnecessary risk to take since there is another way to get Scrivens into the AHL without exposing him to waivers. Another rule that the AHL has made for the lockout season is that any player with a two-way contract who was on his AHL teams clear-day roster in the spring can be signed to an AHL-only contract. That's likely what will happen to Scrivens.

 

[bustaheims]

It'd also be an unnecessary risk to take since there is another way to get Scrivens into the AHL without exposing him to waivers. Another rule that the AHL has made for the lockout season is that any player with a two-way contract who was on his AHL teams clear-day roster in the spring can be signed to an AHL-only contract. That's likely what will happen to Scrivens.

I think it's this more than anything else - why take the risk when you don't have to, even if the odds of him being claimed are minimal?