Leafs @ Sabres - Nov. 3rd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050

[Kin]

Well you are right about that.  They will find out all different ways to continue to win as they grow. 

I don't think it's a case of there being different ways to win, I think it's just a case of them not being there yet in terms of talent in some areas/depth in others. When they have that sort of talent in place, the general way to win is going to be having the puck more than the other team and using it to create high quality chances. What we've seen in recent games, along with the offense drying up a bit, is basically what we've seen all year in terms of limiting their opponents offensive opportunities.

To wit, they're not very good at it yet.

 

[TBLeafer]

Well you are right about that.  They will find out all different ways to continue to win as they grow. 

I don't think it's a case of there being different ways to win, I think it's just a case of them not being there yet in terms of talent in some areas/depth in others. When they have that sort of talent in place, the general way to win is going to be having the puck more than the other team and using it to create high quality chances. What we've seen in recent games, along with the offense drying up a bit, is basically what we've seen all year in terms of limiting their opponents offensive opportunities.

To wit, they're not very good at it yet.

I have no doubt you're going to continue to justify your reasoning as to why you think this team will return to bottom five status.

However they are right now, for better or worse, playing at the season points pace I said they would in the summer.

 

[Kin]

However they are right now, for better or worse, playing at the season points pace I said they would in the summer.

That's not actually true. You're in the predictions thread at 85 and at 11 points in 11 games they're on pace for, well,  I'll get the boys in the lab on that one but I'm fairly sure it's below 85.

Regardless, before the Buffalo game they were "on pace" for below where I thought they'd be. A point here or there will swing their pace wildly right now and I don't think that's a very good indication of their play as a whole. You seem more interested in yelling "Go Leafs Go" and falsely claiming you made an accurate prediction than a substantive discussion in the underlying numbers so there's really no need for you to inject yourself into them.

 

[TBLeafer]

However they are right now, for better or worse, playing at the season points pace I said they would in the summer.

That's not actually true. You're in the predictions thread at 85 and at 11 points in 11 games they're on pace for, well,  I'll get the boys in the lab on that one but I'm fairly sure it's below 85.

Regardless, before the Buffalo game they were "on pace" for below where I thought they'd be. A point here or there will swing their pace wildly right now and I don't think that's a very good indication of their play as a whole. You seem more interested in yelling "Go Leafs Go" and falsely claiming you made an accurate prediction than a substantive discussion in the underlying numbers so there's really no need for you to inject yourself into them.

Yes, yes and the underlying numbers didn't have us in the playoffs in 2012/13, either.  You don't ever seem to want to take intangibles into account, so you seem ill-prepared for better underlying numbers and more winning as the team as a whole continues to develop and improve. Do you really foresee a collapse?  I don't.  I foresee things continuing to tighten up and get better at both ends of the rink.

 

[Kin]

Yes, yes and the underlying numbers didn't have us in the playoffs in 2012/13, either.

Which A) probably would have been the case in a regular 82 game season and B) proved prophetic as that team's playoff berth was not a result of genuine team improvement, as the next few years told us. 

Do you really foresee a collapse?  I don't.  I foresee things continuing to tighten up and get better at both ends of the rink.

A collapse isn't required for the team to wind up roughly where I thought they would. All that's needed is for some of the things they're doing right now which they really can't keep up to slow down. Andersen won't give them .950 goaltending and Matthews/Nylander probably won't generate offense at the clip they have.

Like I said, one fewer point and they'd be below where I guessed they'd end up. A loss tonight and that's true too. Even still, the accuracy of our predictions isn't what's really relevant, it's what the numbers are and what they tell us. Differing interpretations are welcome, just shouting like a dope and saying "DON'T CARE LEAFS WOOO!!!" is a different conversation and one I'm not interested in.

 

[mr grieves]

Do you really foresee a collapse?  I don't.  I foresee things continuing to tighten up and get better at both ends of the rink.

A collapse isn't required for the team to wind up roughly where I thought they would. All that's needed is for some of the things they're doing right now which they really can't keep up to slow down. Andersen won't give them .950 goaltending and Matthews/Nylander probably won't generate offense at the clip they have.

Yeah, but it's not just the the good that's unsustainable. There are things that aren't going well now that will likely pick up: as Andersen's been on his .950 run, their shooting percentage has crashed to 5.3%.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, but it's not just the the good that's unsustainable. There are things that aren't going well now that will likely pick up: as Andersen's been on his .950 run, their shooting percentage has crashed to 5.3%.

Sure, but that's why I'm saying that it won't take a collapse. A slight regression across the board and they're in that bottom 5 range.

 

[TBLeafer]

We have entered the years of PROgression, not REgression and while some things might revert to an average mean, I don't see much in the way of finishing off in a below average NHL capacity.  Of the 11 games so far, the Leafs really should have only been in a position to lose 4 of them.  The OT and SO losses should have been wins.

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, but it's not just the the good that's unsustainable. There are things that aren't going well now that will likely pick up: as Andersen's been on his .950 run, their shooting percentage has crashed to 5.3%.

Sure, but that's why I'm saying that it won't take a collapse. A slight regression across the board and they're in that bottom 5 range.

Except I'm saying a regression in their shooting percentage likely buoys them out of that basement range. Unless the shot suppression numbers from the last 2-3 games solidify as how this team plays, that is.

 

[Frank E]

Yeah, but it's not just the the good that's unsustainable. There are things that aren't going well now that will likely pick up: as Andersen's been on his .950 run, their shooting percentage has crashed to 5.3%.

Sure, but that's why I'm saying that it won't take a collapse. A slight regression across the board and they're in that bottom 5 range.

Except I'm saying a regression in their shooting percentage likely buoys them out of that basement range. Unless the shot suppression numbers from the last 2-3 games solidify as how this team plays, that is.

You lost me here...did you mean progression?

 

[Kin]

Except I'm saying a regression in their shooting percentage likely buoys them out of that basement range. Unless the shot suppression numbers from the last 2-3 games solidify as how this team plays, that is.

We're essentially going in circles now but I think that will be largely mitigated by guys like Nylander/Matthews slowing down in terms of generating chances.

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, but it's not just the the good that's unsustainable. There are things that aren't going well now that will likely pick up: as Andersen's been on his .950 run, their shooting percentage has crashed to 5.3%.

Sure, but that's why I'm saying that it won't take a collapse. A slight regression across the board and they're in that bottom 5 range.

Except I'm saying a regression in their shooting percentage likely buoys them out of that basement range. Unless the shot suppression numbers from the last 2-3 games solidify as how this team plays, that is.

You lost me here...did you mean progression?

Regression to mean. Neither the 5% shooting nor Andersen's .950 are likely to last.

Except I'm saying a regression in their shooting percentage likely buoys them out of that basement range. Unless the shot suppression numbers from the last 2-3 games solidify as how this team plays, that is.

We're essentially going in circles now but I think that will be largely mitigated by guys like Nylander/Matthews slowing down in terms of generating chances.

Well, we're back to waiting to see how things go.

 

[Frank E]

Except I'm saying a regression in their shooting percentage likely buoys them out of that basement range. Unless the shot suppression numbers from the last 2-3 games solidify as how this team plays, that is.

You lost me here...did you mean progression?

Regression to mean. Neither the 5% shooting nor Andersen's .950 are likely to last.

OK, that's what I thought you meant...to me regression usually refers to things going from more positive to less positive, even if the mean is more positive.

Carry on.