Leafs search for a new coach/GM

[Kin]

I think I lost track of my point over the past day or so, but I think it was more to do with the assertion that Edmonton has done a good job of acquiring top end talent through losing a lot, for a long time.  Granted, not planned, but still, job done.  Not enough good 2nd-3rd round picks, but as I mentioned, I think those are much easier pieces to add on the fly.

I'm not saying that Edmonton planned to win a lottery, and planned to be awful.  I'm just saying that the result of this terribleness is a pretty nice bunch of players with high ceilings, and a good framework to work with to build a champion.

Right...did you think anyone had said otherwise? That Edmonton hadn't collected a bunch of high ceiling players? Because they have but they didn't do it efficiently, they didn't do it by design and they really haven't done that great a job of it, even with the picks they had.

Assembling a top quality blueline, assembling a top flight goaltender...those are real question marks that aren't going to be easy to solve. Eberle, as you say, might fetch a player like Gardiner but...Gardiner isn't a great player. He doesn't make up the gap between Edmonton's defense and that of the better teams. That's a massive hole in Edmonton's future plans. That's where they are after 7 years of being terrible.
 

 

[mr grieves]

I think I lost track of my point over the past day or so, but I think it was more to do with the assertion that Edmonton has done a good job of acquiring top end talent through losing a lot, for a long time.  Granted, not planned, but still, job done.  Not enough good 2nd-3rd round picks, but as I mentioned, I think those are much easier pieces to add on the fly.

I'm not saying that Edmonton planned to win a lottery, and planned to be awful.  I'm just saying that the result of this terribleness is a pretty nice bunch of players with high ceilings, and a good framework to work with to build a champion.

Right...did you think anyone had said otherwise? That Edmonton hadn't collected a bunch of high ceiling players? Because they have but they didn't do it efficiently, they didn't do it by design and they really haven't done that great a job of it, even with the picks they had.

Assembling a top quality blueline, assembling a top flight goaltender...those are real question marks that aren't going to be easy to solve. Eberle, as you say, might fetch a player like Gardiner but...Gardiner isn't a great player. He doesn't make up the gap between Edmonton's defense and that of the better teams. That's a massive hole in Edmonton's future plans. That's where they are after 7 years of being terrible.

But their decade of incompetence has yielded more than Eberle, so the pieces Chiarelli should be able to find will likely be better than Gardiner. Edmonton's inefficiently collected bunch of high-ceiling players does at least give them plenty of assets to convert into top-quality defensemen, but they'll need to part with pieces other than Eberle and Yakupov. That shouldn't be so hard to swallow with McDavid around.

 

[Kin]

But their decade of incompetence has yielded more than Eberle, so the pieces Chiarelli should be able to find will likely be better than Gardiner. Edmonton's inefficiently collected bunch of high-ceiling players does at least give them plenty of assets to convert into top-quality defensemen, but they'll need to part with pieces other than Eberle and Yakupov. That shouldn't be so hard to swallow with McDavid around.

I really don't know that it has to an extent that they could add "top-quality" defensemen without really feeling it. Like even if we assume that they hang on to, say, Hall, RNH, Nurse and McDavid and then go a step forward and say right now that McDavid will be at least as good as Sidney Crosby.

That would give them Eberle, Yakupov and Draisatl as major trade pieces. Could those three land you a really great defenseman? Sure, although I think it would be an interesting team that made that trade but still, sure.

So then...are the Oilers significantly better situated than, say, the Penguins are right now? RNH isn't Malkin although Hall is a step above any winger they might have. The "top defenseman" might be the equivalent of, say, Letang. Then what?

 

[bustaheims]

There's a dozen or so UFA goalies.  I'm not going to get into every single one of them, but more than a few are serviceable NHL goalies.  I didn't suggest that Edmonton sign the next Brodeur, just upgrade somewhat.

The goalies out there really only represent a marginal upgrade at best when what Edmonton needs is a significant upgrade in net. They received the worst goaltending in the league and I'm not sure there's a UFA goalie out there that can even be reasonably expected to provide league average goaltending as a starter - which is probably the minimum they'd need to climb out of the basement.

 

[Highlander]

How about Bernier and Gardiner for Eberle and a pick of some sort, they get a goalie that may help.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How about Bernier and Gardiner for Eberle and a pick of some sort, they get a goalie that may help.

They'd get one for Eberle, not both.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The goalies out there really only represent a marginal upgrade at best when what Edmonton needs is a significant upgrade in net. They received the worst goaltending in the league and I'm not sure there's a UFA goalie out there that can even be reasonably expected to provide league average goaltending as a starter - which is probably the minimum they'd need to climb out of the basement.

Dubnyk would have likely left as a UFA at the end of the season he was traded in anyway (and maybe he needed a kick in the butt to get his career back on track), but I'm surprised we're not hearing more of how dumb of a decision trading him for scraps was.

 

[Kin]

How about Bernier and Gardiner for Eberle and a pick of some sort, they get a goalie that may help.

The thing is that Eberle doesn't really help the Leafs. At best he's hitting the reset button on Kessel by a few years.

So the question would be whether or not Eberle could then be flipped for a better collection of picks/prospects than Gardiner and Bernier could and I'm not particularly convinced.

 

[bustaheims]

Dubnyk would have likely left as a UFA at the end of the season he was traded in anyway (and maybe he needed a kick in the butt to get his career back on track), but I'm surprised we're not hearing more of how dumb of a decision trading him for scraps was.

Well, he was always kind of looked down on when he was in Edmonton even though his performances were generally pretty reasonable, and his final season there was a disaster. My guess is we're not hearing more about how bad that particular decision seems is because it wasn't a bad decision at the time and I think people are more surprised by his resurgence than anything else. I think people recognize moving on from him was the right decision at the time - especially in light of the fact that the team they traded him to gave him away for nothing less than 2 months later.

 

[mr grieves]

So then...are the Oilers significantly better situated than, say, the Penguins are right now? RNH isn't Malkin although Hall is a step above any winger they might have. The "top defenseman" might be the equivalent of, say, Letang. Then what?

Sure they're better. Younger, more cost-controlled. As you say, a winger better than any on the Penguins. And Nurse seems to be coming along quite well.** Then what? What else do they need?

Yeah, a goaltender? But it seems increasingly difficult to find one who is consistently and predictably significantly better than the rest,^^ so... I dunno how you plan for that, except have several of them around and invest in goalie coaches.


** Nurse vs. McDavid: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/05/03/darnell-nurse-passes-test-against-connor-mcdavid-but-where-will-he-fit-in-the-pro-game/

^^ Mirtle on goaltending trends: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/why-nhl-teams-should-stop-spending-big-on-most-goalies/article24058773/

 

[Kin]

Sure they're better. Younger, more cost-controlled. As you say, a winger better than any on the Penguins. And Nurse seems to be coming along quite well.** Then what? What else do they need?

I also point out that Malkin is significantly better than RNH has shown himself to be. So that largely seems like a wash. Pittsburgh also has a deeper group of defensemen than just Letang.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sure they're better. Younger, more cost-controlled. As you say, a winger better than any on the Penguins. And Nurse seems to be coming along quite well.** Then what? What else do they need?

I also point out that Malkin is significantly better than RNH has shown himself to be. So that largely seems like a wash. Pittsburgh also has a deeper group of defensemen than just Letang.

Being today's Pittsburgh Penguins isn't much of an accomplishment either. At their peak they had Crosby-Malkin-Staal down the middle, plus Letang and Fleury. Malkin > RNH, Staal > Draistl, and Letang > Nurse. And of course Fleury > below average goalie. Edmonton has Hall and Eberle too but I just don't think that makes up for the differences.

 

[mr grieves]

Sure they're better. Younger, more cost-controlled. As you say, a winger better than any on the Penguins. And Nurse seems to be coming along quite well.** Then what? What else do they need?

I also point out that Malkin is significantly better than RNH has shown himself to be. So that largely seems like a wash. Pittsburgh also has a deeper group of defensemen than just Letang.

Being today's Pittsburgh Penguins isn't much of an accomplishment either. At their peak they had Crosby-Malkin-Staal down the middle, plus Letang and Fleury. Malkin > RNH, Staal > Draistl, and Letang > Nurse. And of course Fleury > below average goalie. Edmonton has Hall and Eberle too but I just don't think that makes up for the differences.

Well, I think we're not comparing today's Edmonton Oilers to yesterday's peak Penguins.

McDavid = Crosby
RNH < Malkin (tho maybe RNH will do better when playing below McDavid)
Hall > any Penguin winger
[whatever defensemen PC gets w/ Yak, Eb, Drais] =? Letang
Nurse >? Penguins deeper Dmen

All I'm saying is that the team's drafted at the top of the draft for so long now, there's gotta be enough high-end talent for a reasonably competent GM to convert some of those pieces into what's missing and build a legitimate contender around McDavid. I mean, they've got a generational talent coming in, several quality pieces already, and a bunch spare parts with pedigree and in/entering their primes.

 

[L K]

Sure they're better. Younger, more cost-controlled. As you say, a winger better than any on the Penguins. And Nurse seems to be coming along quite well.** Then what? What else do they need?

I also point out that Malkin is significantly better than RNH has shown himself to be. So that largely seems like a wash. Pittsburgh also has a deeper group of defensemen than just Letang.

Being today's Pittsburgh Penguins isn't much of an accomplishment either. At their peak they had Crosby-Malkin-Staal down the middle, plus Letang and Fleury. Malkin > RNH, Staal > Draistl, and Letang > Nurse. And of course Fleury > below average goalie. Edmonton has Hall and Eberle too but I just don't think that makes up for the differences.

Well, I think we're not comparing today's Edmonton Oilers to yesterday's peak Penguins.

McDavid = Crosby
RNH < Malkin (tho maybe RNH will do better when playing below McDavid)
Hall > any Penguin winger
[whatever defensemen PC gets w/ Yak, Eb, Drais] =? Letang
Nurse >? Penguins deeper Dmen

All I'm saying is that the team's drafted at the top of the draft for so long now, there's gotta be enough high-end talent for a reasonably competent GM to convert some of those pieces into what's missing and build a legitimate contender around McDavid. I mean, they've got a generational talent coming in, several quality pieces already, and a bunch spare parts with pedigree and in/entering their primes.

Even if we are going to compare the Oilers to today`s Penguins...they are a team that barely made the playoffs and struggle to win in the playoffs so I`m not sure if they are a great bastion for comparisons.

And honestly, I`d take Olli Maatta over Darnell Nurse.

 

[Kin]

Well, I think we're not comparing today's Edmonton Oilers to yesterday's peak Penguins.

No, but I also wasn't intending for us to compare this year's Penguins to next year's Oilers either. I may have phrased it poorly but what I really wanted to get across is that a lot of the team building challenges that the Penguins face are going to be faced by the Oilers long term only more so because, of course, Edmonton has a hard time getting people to take their money.

And to a point you could argue that it'll be worse for Edmonton because one of the things that Sid Crosby doesn't get near enough credit for? He's never been a jerk about his salary. He could have gone into the front office there and asked for just about any cap number he wanted and any structure he wanted but instead took a below-market long term deal. What if McDavid isn't like that? What if he's as good as fast as Crosby was and wants to be paid as such?

[whatever defensemen PC gets w/ Yak, Eb, Drais] =? Letang

Well that's where, like Frank, I think you need to be slightly more specific. Look around the NHL. What's a trade you think that's likely to happen in that vein. Where can you look at a situation and say "You know, the GM there might trade a Norris calibre defenseman and someone who's likely to be at that level for a couple years for Yakupov, Eberle and Draisatl. Also, he either needs to be locked in long term or willing to re-sign in Edmonton if he doesn't block the deal in the first place"?

All I'm saying is that the team's drafted at the top of the draft for so long now, there's gotta be enough high-end talent for a reasonably competent GM to convert some of those pieces into what's missing and build a legitimate contender around McDavid. I mean, they've got a generational talent coming in, several quality pieces already, and a bunch spare parts with pedigree and in/entering their primes.

Again, that they've collected some high ceiling pieces is not a dispute. But the idea that the type of defensemen/goaltending you're talking about is easy to find just doesn't really wash.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

There's a dozen or so UFA goalies.  I'm not going to get into every single one of them, but more than a few are serviceable NHL goalies.  I didn't suggest that Edmonton sign the next Brodeur, just upgrade somewhat.

The goalies out there really only represent a marginal upgrade at best when what Edmonton needs is a significant upgrade in net. They received the worst goaltending in the league and I'm not sure there's a UFA goalie out there that can even be reasonably expected to provide league average goaltending as a starter - which is probably the minimum they'd need to climb out of the basement.

They also had one of the worst defensive teams (not just defence men) in the league. Adding even a great goalie isn't going to solve their defensive woes.

 

[bustaheims]

They also had one of the worst defensive teams (not just defence men) in the league. Adding even a great goalie isn't going to solve their defensive woes.

No, but it's probably the best place to start in terms of on-ice personnel. They may never be a group of defensive stalwarts, but they can improve without significant roster moves - though, obviously, an improvement on the blue line is also in order. Defensive play can be taught, if they can find the right coach. The skill required for quality goaltending, on the other hand, can not.

 

[Frank E]

I think I lost track of my point over the past day or so, but I think it was more to do with the assertion that Edmonton has done a good job of acquiring top end talent through losing a lot, for a long time.  Granted, not planned, but still, job done.  Not enough good 2nd-3rd round picks, but as I mentioned, I think those are much easier pieces to add on the fly.

I'm not saying that Edmonton planned to win a lottery, and planned to be awful.  I'm just saying that the result of this terribleness is a pretty nice bunch of players with high ceilings, and a good framework to work with to build a champion.

Right...did you think anyone had said otherwise? That Edmonton hadn't collected a bunch of high ceiling players? Because they have but they didn't do it efficiently, they didn't do it by design and they really haven't done that great a job of it, even with the picks they had.

Assembling a top quality blueline, assembling a top flight goaltender...those are real question marks that aren't going to be easy to solve. Eberle, as you say, might fetch a player like Gardiner but...Gardiner isn't a great player. He doesn't make up the gap between Edmonton's defense and that of the better teams. That's a massive hole in Edmonton's future plans. That's where they are after 7 years of being terrible.

OK, who sets the bar?  If we're going to say that they didn't do a proper job of talent acquisition, then who has?

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I think I lost track of my point over the past day or so, but I think it was more to do with the assertion that Edmonton has done a good job of acquiring top end talent through losing a lot, for a long time.  Granted, not planned, but still, job done.  Not enough good 2nd-3rd round picks, but as I mentioned, I think those are much easier pieces to add on the fly.

I'm not saying that Edmonton planned to win a lottery, and planned to be awful.  I'm just saying that the result of this terribleness is a pretty nice bunch of players with high ceilings, and a good framework to work with to build a champion.

Right...did you think anyone had said otherwise? That Edmonton hadn't collected a bunch of high ceiling players? Because they have but they didn't do it efficiently, they didn't do it by design and they really haven't done that great a job of it, even with the picks they had.

Assembling a top quality blueline, assembling a top flight goaltender...those are real question marks that aren't going to be easy to solve. Eberle, as you say, might fetch a player like Gardiner but...Gardiner isn't a great player. He doesn't make up the gap between Edmonton's defense and that of the better teams. That's a massive hole in Edmonton's future plans. That's where they are after 7 years of being terrible.

OK, who sets the bar?  If we're going to say that they didn't do a proper job of talent acquisition, then who has?

Tampa, Nashville,  Washington come to mind. There are others too i'm sure.

 

[Kin]

OK, who sets the bar?  If we're going to say that they didn't do a proper job of talent acquisition, then who has?

Well, before we took the diversion to talk about whether or not a team that'll have 4 of the last 6 #1 picks had some good young talent in the system we were talking about teams like Chicago and LA. They did ok with it in a pretty timely fashion.