Leafs @ sens - Mar. 25th, 7:00pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[wnc096]

Every player goes through droughts so don't expect them to pot 2-3 points every night but a point a game from the top 2 is a disappointment and JT and Nylander should be point a game players which they aren't.

Legit question...when was the last time 1 team had 4 forwards that average a point per game?  The early 90's?

 

[herman]

Over the last two seasons, out of the 24 players making between 6.5M and 7.6M AAV Nylnader is 8th in Pts and 10th in PPG. 14 of the 24 have a higher cap hit than Nylander.

EDIT: those are forwards only.

Would you be able to snag that ranking by cap hit% at signing? CapFriendly shows cap% but doesn't aggregate seasons of production. I guess I could do it manually, but ugh.

 

[bustaheims]

Every player goes through droughts so don't expect them to pot 2-3 points every night but a point a game from the top 2 is a disappointment and JT and Nylander should be point a game players which they aren't.

Legit question...when was the last time 1 team had 4 forwards that average a point per game?  The early 90's?

Detroit did it in 05-06, Caps in 09-10. Takes a top heavy, extremely high scoring group to get there these days, though. Typically need the team to score 290+, and that doesn?t happen most years.

 

[Joe S.]

I think some of you guys get caught up in stats, analytics, possession etc.

I agree. A lot of you guys really need to stop focusing on stats like "goals scored".

Our 4 top paid players aren't being overpaid to have great analytic numbers. All part in parcel to points produced but you can have all the possession, shot corsi #s etc but if you're not producing it's a problem. Yes Marner and Matthews are good when you look at where they are compared to other stars. Matthews again isn't 100% but Marner has 20 points in his last 20 games and 7 of those in 2 games a while back so not exactly lighting it up. JT and Nylander not even going to go there. Every player goes through droughts so don't expect them to pot 2-3 points every night but a point a game from the top 2 is a disappointment and JT and Nylander should be point a game players which they aren't. Especially with the PP time these guys get. When you go back a couple weeks and your best line on a nightly basis was Hyman-Engvall-Mikheyev that's a concern.

For them to be of any value according to your in depth analysis, they should be scoring every single night and finish the season with 160 points each. 

 

[Kin]

I understand hard to compare salaries when a guy signed 4-5 years ago obviously salaries have gone up. I wouldn't have signed Nylander especially after holding out and maybe you can make a strong argument that the Leafs overpaid. I know Pastrnak plays on arguably the best line in hockey but for my money no comparison between the two. I made this argument back when we signed the top 2 stars and I'll say it again for young players coming off an ELC neither Marner nor Matthews deserved what they got not this early in their careers. Because of that Dubas has had to fill in positions with either guys from overseas or scrubs from other teams. Are they great players no exception but hard to look what these guys are making when other stars around the league who also have signed recently make less. Matthews is great don't get me wrong and in my opinion the teams MVP but he's no McDavid and Marner love the kid but he's overpaid. Other teams sign their guys and always seems to be for less. Rantanen 9.25 per, Point 6.75, are they any worse than Marner? Who would you rather have on your team? If I had to choose between Point and Marner I'll take Point at less than 7 million and FYI basically has been a point a game or better the last 3 years something Nylander hasn't done in his career. Unfortunately the whole system is kinda unfair due to taxes etc. The playing field is a little skewed which I'm sure comes into play.

All of this is just gobbledygook nonsense that has nothing to do with how actual players are valued. Nathan Mackinnon, or anyone, outearning his contract doesn't change the open market value of what players sign for in the NHL. David Pastrnak has not had a standard growth pattern that constitutes a reasonable expectation for players who signed similar deals.

Either you're interested in comparing contracts to the actual market that exists or not but cherry picking RFA deals and thinking they set the standard for how teams can actually choose to spend their money constitutes one of the worst understandings of how hockey works I've ever seen.

 

[Kin]

Only thing I didn't like with the Leafs RFA's is the term. Nylander signed for 6 years while Ehlers for 7. Matthews only 5 years, Marner 6. Would be nice if one of those guys gave extra years on the deal.

That seems like a pretty petty thing to "not like" about getting some very good young players under lengthy extensions.  Like you could at least wait until they actually sign their next contracts and we see if those shorter terms actually mean something before caring about it in advance. There are good and bad things to shorter deals.

 

[Deebo]

Over the last two seasons, out of the 24 players making between 6.5M and 7.6M AAV Nylnader is 8th in Pts and 10th in PPG. 14 of the 24 have a higher cap hit than Nylander.

EDIT: those are forwards only.

Would you be able to snag that ranking by cap hit% at signing? CapFriendly shows cap% but doesn't aggregate seasons of production. I guess I could do it manually, but ugh.

I can give you that among those players, he was 16th in CH%

 

[wnc096]

I understand hard to compare salaries when a guy signed 4-5 years ago obviously salaries have gone up. I wouldn't have signed Nylander especially after holding out and maybe you can make a strong argument that the Leafs overpaid. I know Pastrnak plays on arguably the best line in hockey but for my money no comparison between the two. I made this argument back when we signed the top 2 stars and I'll say it again for young players coming off an ELC neither Marner nor Matthews deserved what they got not this early in their careers. Because of that Dubas has had to fill in positions with either guys from overseas or scrubs from other teams. Are they great players no exception but hard to look what these guys are making when other stars around the league who also have signed recently make less. Matthews is great don't get me wrong and in my opinion the teams MVP but he's no McDavid and Marner love the kid but he's overpaid. Other teams sign their guys and always seems to be for less. Rantanen 9.25 per, Point 6.75, are they any worse than Marner? Who would you rather have on your team? If I had to choose between Point and Marner I'll take Point at less than 7 million and FYI basically has been a point a game or better the last 3 years something Nylander hasn't done in his career. Unfortunately the whole system is kinda unfair due to taxes etc. The playing field is a little skewed which I'm sure comes into play.

All of this is just gobbledygook nonsense that has nothing to do with how actual players are valued. Nathan Mackinnon, or anyone, outearning his contract doesn't change the open market value of what players sign for in the NHL. David Pastrnak has not had a standard growth pattern that constitutes a reasonable expectation for players who signed similar deals.

Either you're interested in comparing contracts to the actual market that exists or not but cherry picking RFA deals and thinking they set the standard for how teams can actually choose to spend their money constitutes one of the worst understandings of how hockey works I've ever seen.

Leafs don't have any legit bad contracts either which is worth something. 

Imagine his yelling and screaming if they had a player like Karlsson, Benn, Skinner, Duchene Lucic, Neal or Eriksson on the payroll.


Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

 

[Kin]

Leafs don't have any legit bad contracts either which is worth something. 

Imagine his yelling and screaming if they had a player like Karlsson, Benn, Skinner, Duchene Lucic, Neal or Eriksson on the payroll.

Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

Well, the other thing though is that he also whines about Rielly who by any reasonable measurement is wildly outperforming his contract. He whines when the team wins, he whines when the team loses. He whines after every goal against, he whines about all the contracts on the team regardless of if they're objectively bad or not.

 

[ZBBM]

Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

I haven't looked at his stats but my eyeballs, which when corrected for their annoying astigmatism are infallible, tell me he's not earning his dough this year already.  Not only has Malign Willy N. been the better forward on that line (and it's not really close), it seems like play after play dies once the puck reaches Tavares, so he's not just a drag, he's a crater.  Exceptions: his work ethic and faceoffs are still very good.

I think the other day herman alluded to his signature 1 on 3s that he can no longer pull off.  Either that's because:

(a) His natural fecundity is at cross-purposes with his hockey career (translation: quit fathering kids in-season); or
(b) He's begun the natural decline that players his age display.

(a) can be solved by a variety of strategies (ahem). (b) might be addressed by adjusting his playstyle.  Quit trying moves that worked 2-3 years ago but no longer do.  Make Styles the finisher? 

Or put Marner back with him and maybe he scores 30+ goals again.

 

[azzurri63]

I think some of you guys get caught up in stats, analytics, possession etc.

I agree. A lot of you guys really need to stop focusing on stats like "goals scored".

Our 4 top paid players aren't being overpaid to have great analytic numbers. All part in parcel to points produced but you can have all the possession, shot corsi #s etc but if you're not producing it's a problem. Yes Marner and Matthews are good when you look at where they are compared to other stars. Matthews again isn't 100% but Marner has 20 points in his last 20 games and 7 of those in 2 games a while back so not exactly lighting it up. JT and Nylander not even going to go there. Every player goes through droughts so don't expect them to pot 2-3 points every night but a point a game from the top 2 is a disappointment and JT and Nylander should be point a game players which they aren't. Especially with the PP time these guys get. When you go back a couple weeks and your best line on a nightly basis was Hyman-Engvall-Mikheyev that's a concern.

For them to be of any value according to your in depth analysis, they should be scoring every single night and finish the season with 160 points each.

Maybe reread my post. I'm not saying that. I said I don't expect them to get 2-3 points a night but if M&M finished with 82 points in 82 game season that would be a disappointment. They are above that. Nylander and JT I think should be getting a point a game maybe slightly higher than that would be acceptable. They are talented enough, play enough, get enough PP time to do that but they aren't.

 

[azzurri63]

I understand hard to compare salaries when a guy signed 4-5 years ago obviously salaries have gone up. I wouldn't have signed Nylander especially after holding out and maybe you can make a strong argument that the Leafs overpaid. I know Pastrnak plays on arguably the best line in hockey but for my money no comparison between the two. I made this argument back when we signed the top 2 stars and I'll say it again for young players coming off an ELC neither Marner nor Matthews deserved what they got not this early in their careers. Because of that Dubas has had to fill in positions with either guys from overseas or scrubs from other teams. Are they great players no exception but hard to look what these guys are making when other stars around the league who also have signed recently make less. Matthews is great don't get me wrong and in my opinion the teams MVP but he's no McDavid and Marner love the kid but he's overpaid. Other teams sign their guys and always seems to be for less. Rantanen 9.25 per, Point 6.75, are they any worse than Marner? Who would you rather have on your team? If I had to choose between Point and Marner I'll take Point at less than 7 million and FYI basically has been a point a game or better the last 3 years something Nylander hasn't done in his career. Unfortunately the whole system is kinda unfair due to taxes etc. The playing field is a little skewed which I'm sure comes into play.

All of this is just gobbledygook nonsense that has nothing to do with how actual players are valued. Nathan Mackinnon, or anyone, outearning his contract doesn't change the open market value of what players sign for in the NHL. David Pastrnak has not had a standard growth pattern that constitutes a reasonable expectation for players who signed similar deals.

Either you're interested in comparing contracts to the actual market that exists or not but cherry picking RFA deals and thinking they set the standard for how teams can actually choose to spend their money constitutes one of the worst understandings of how hockey works I've ever seen.

Leafs don't have any legit bad contracts either which is worth something. 

Imagine his yelling and screaming if they had a player like Karlsson, Benn, Skinner, Duchene Lucic, Neal or Eriksson on the payroll.


Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

He's definitely producing better than most if not all above but I'll ask you this his he producing enough to command 11 million per? Only one remotely close to earning what he does is Karlsson.

 

[azzurri63]

Leafs don't have any legit bad contracts either which is worth something. 

Imagine his yelling and screaming if they had a player like Karlsson, Benn, Skinner, Duchene Lucic, Neal or Eriksson on the payroll.

Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

Well, the other thing though is that he also whines about Rielly who by any reasonable measurement is wildly outperforming his contract. He whines when the team wins, he whines when the team loses. He whines after every goal against, he whines about all the contracts on the team regardless of if they're objectively bad or not.

I don't whine about Reilly's contract. My concern with him is not making 5 million per today what's he going to command after next year. Definitely going to get a raise but how much more do you think he's worth. read my posts from past years I've always like Morgan offensively defensively not so much and for a guy who is not a sure #1 defensemen how much you willing to give him? All I'm saying is if you gotta give him say 7 million per then I would deal him before losing him for nothing.

 

[azzurri63]

Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

I haven't looked at his stats but my eyeballs, which when corrected for their annoying astigmatism are infallible, tell me he's not earning his dough this year already.  Not only has Malign Willy N. been the better forward on that line (and it's not really close), it seems like play after play dies once the puck reaches Tavares, so he's not just a drag, he's a crater.  Exceptions: his work ethic and faceoffs are still very good.

I think the other day herman alluded to his signature 1 on 3s that he can no longer pull off.  Either that's because:

(a) His natural fecundity is at cross-purposes with his hockey career (translation: quit fathering kids in-season); or
(b) He's begun the natural decline that players his age display.

(a) can be solved by a variety of strategies (ahem). (b) might be addressed by adjusting his playstyle.  Quit trying moves that worked 2-3 years ago but no longer do.  Make Styles the finisher? 

Or put Marner back with him and maybe he scores 30+ goals again.

I don't get why Keefe has not tinkered with the lines. Top 2 have both been productive enough. Maybe won't work but at least try something. Matthews not at 100% is not helping but I don't think that's the total issue.

 

[wnc096]

Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

I haven't looked at his stats but my eyeballs, which when corrected for their annoying astigmatism are infallible, tell me he's not earning his dough this year already.  Not only has Malign Willy N. been the better forward on that line (and it's not really close), it seems like play after play dies once the puck reaches Tavares, so he's not just a drag, he's a crater.  Exceptions: his work ethic and faceoffs are still very good.

I think the other day herman alluded to his signature 1 on 3s that he can no longer pull off.  Either that's because:

(a) His natural fecundity is at cross-purposes with his hockey career (translation: quit fathering kids in-season); or
(b) He's begun the natural decline that players his age display.

(a) can be solved by a variety of strategies (ahem). (b) might be addressed by adjusting his playstyle.  Quit trying moves that worked 2-3 years ago but no longer do.  Make Styles the finisher? 

Or put Marner back with him and maybe he scores 30+ goals again.

I don?t disagree that he?s not living up to the contract.  But it?s not as if he?s not a quality player.  If he was a free agent today, he?d still be getting between 8-9M.  There are a lot of players in the league that would be borderline NHL?ers if it weren?t for their contracts.  Leafs don?t have any of those guys

 

[wnc096]

I understand hard to compare salaries when a guy signed 4-5 years ago obviously salaries have gone up. I wouldn't have signed Nylander especially after holding out and maybe you can make a strong argument that the Leafs overpaid. I know Pastrnak plays on arguably the best line in hockey but for my money no comparison between the two. I made this argument back when we signed the top 2 stars and I'll say it again for young players coming off an ELC neither Marner nor Matthews deserved what they got not this early in their careers. Because of that Dubas has had to fill in positions with either guys from overseas or scrubs from other teams. Are they great players no exception but hard to look what these guys are making when other stars around the league who also have signed recently make less. Matthews is great don't get me wrong and in my opinion the teams MVP but he's no McDavid and Marner love the kid but he's overpaid. Other teams sign their guys and always seems to be for less. Rantanen 9.25 per, Point 6.75, are they any worse than Marner? Who would you rather have on your team? If I had to choose between Point and Marner I'll take Point at less than 7 million and FYI basically has been a point a game or better the last 3 years something Nylander hasn't done in his career. Unfortunately the whole system is kinda unfair due to taxes etc. The playing field is a little skewed which I'm sure comes into play.

All of this is just gobbledygook nonsense that has nothing to do with how actual players are valued. Nathan Mackinnon, or anyone, outearning his contract doesn't change the open market value of what players sign for in the NHL. David Pastrnak has not had a standard growth pattern that constitutes a reasonable expectation for players who signed similar deals.

Either you're interested in comparing contracts to the actual market that exists or not but cherry picking RFA deals and thinking they set the standard for how teams can actually choose to spend their money constitutes one of the worst understandings of how hockey works I've ever seen.

Leafs don't have any legit bad contracts either which is worth something. 

Imagine his yelling and screaming if they had a player like Karlsson, Benn, Skinner, Duchene Lucic, Neal or Eriksson on the payroll.


Tavares may cross into that territory in a few years, but hes still producing now.

He's definitely producing better than most if not all above but I'll ask you this his he producing enough to command 11 million per? Only one remotely close to earning what he does is Karlsson.

If he?s a free agent today...he?s probably worth 8-9M on the open market. He?s the top 2 Centre on nearly every team in the NHL

 

[Kin]

I don't whine about Reilly's contract.

I didn't say you did. I said you whine about him as a player despite the fact that he's wildly outperforming his contract. So you whine about players outperforming their contracts and ones you think aren't. In case you miss the pattern here you whine about everything.

 

[Bullfrog]

These are just fundamental concepts of sports economics that a child would be able to understand.

In fairness, my 11-year-old son probably doesn't have as strong a grasp on sports economics that you seem to imply he should. He's getting pretty good at drawing his name in 3D though.

 

[Kin]

I don?t disagree that he?s not living up to the contract.

So here's the problem with the idea that he's not living up to the contract. When Tavares signed his deal he'd been in the league for 9 years(albeit only 8 healthy full seasons) in those 9 years he'd finished in the top 10 in scoring twice, finishing 2nd once and 7th another time. Neither of those seasons were any of the three previous to him signing with the Leafs. Despite this he signed a contract that gave him the second highest cap hit in the league at the time it was signed.

So if by "living up to the contract" we mean that where he ranks in the league as a player roughly corresponds to where his cap hit ranks, of course there's a discrepancy but there was always going to be one. Expecting Tavares to be a top 5 player in the NHL, as he'd really need to be to "justify" his contract by that definition was never a realistic expectation.

Now, sure, we'd all prefer a Tavares having a year where his goal and point totals were closer to what they were two years ago but we also have to recognize that some of these changes aren't about Tavares. His ice-time is reduced. He's playing with Nylander vs. Marner. Matthews has taken the #1 spot.

UFA signings are almost by definition not going to be the most efficient use of cap dollars. You aren't negotiating with a gun to their head the way you are with RFAs. But more importantly just about every player will have up years and down years and anyone who looked at Tavares' career before he signed in Toronto with any honest and expected nothing but 85+ point years was never really giving him an honest chance. Being ok with this contract almost certainly always meant being ok with at least a few 30 goal/75 points kind of years.

 

[Deebo]

Maybe reread my post. I'm not saying that. I said I don't expect them to get 2-3 points a night but if M&M finished with 82 points in 82 game season that would be a disappointment. They are above that.

Yes, if Matthews or Marner got 82 in 82, it would be a little disappointing, but that's not what they are doing they are on 100 point 82 game paces, 7th and 8th in the league in points per game.

You can cherry pick a small sample of any player where their numbers will be below their season average.

Nylander and JT I think should be getting a point a game maybe slightly higher than that would be acceptable. They are talented enough, play enough, get enough PP time to do that but they aren't.

Now that it's been shown Nylander's production has been in the the upper half of forwards who make within 500k of him, its that Nylander is "talented enough" that he should be at a point per game.

There are 22 players in the entire league that have been over a point a game over the 2 last seasons, do you think Nylander should be in the top 20 in scoring? If that's the kind of production you are expecting out of Nylander, then yes you will be disappointed. He's good but not a top 20 in scoring good.

JT's numbers have slipped a bit this year no doubt.

If you are saying you expect Matthews and Marner to be well over a point per game (which they are) as well as JT and Nylander to be at a point per game or slightly better. You are basically saying you expect the leafs to have 4 top 20-25 scorers on their team. I don't find that realistic.