Leafs @ sens - Mar. 30th, 7:00pm - CBC, TSN 1050

[BermudaBudsFan]

We need to be real.  This is team is what it is and their record since Christmas is not a fluke.

It's also not a particularly fair look at how good this team is. Andersen missed a fair chunk of that time and an already weak blue line has been hurt by injuries. Absent some of that bad luck and it probably just looks like the kind of bad stretch any playoff team is bound to have in an up and down year.

 

[azzurri63]

Quit blaming he refs.  The Leafs are absolutely awful.

You apprenticing to lc9, I see.

That?s pretty good actually.  Honestly, though, anyone who indicates confidence in the playoffs isn?t thinking rationally.
By the way, they haven?t clinched a spot yet and play on the road on the Island next.

Fortunately they played well early in the season when points are easier to obtain and help them get in.

No reason why this team with some of the talent we have with this many games left should even be in this position.

We give up so many points to teams we should beat albeit tonight Anderson was good and lucky.

Having said that Babcock and Dubas are both to blame.

Both have cost us points.

Mike with his head scratching coaching decisions and Kyle with some of his signings and inability to bolster the blue line and add some form of grit to this team.

Muzzin doesn't count. Makes sense.

Yes Muzzin counts and at the time I liked the trade but was unhappy seeing Grundstrom go. He?s exactly the type of player we need.

Dubas shouldn?t have stopped there.

Don?t think he needed another player of Muzzin?s caliber but you think he could have picked up something better than Marincin or Holl.
The 2 injuries hurt us and Rosen being out also but pretty sad we are in this position the last few weeks. The weak D hurt us.

 

[ZBBM]

I'd like to see Babcock ride the refs more when the Leafs get jobbed like tonight.  It's not like he's going to poison the well since they aren't giving us PPs anyway.

I've had the pleasure of sitting a few rows up from the leafs bench over the last few seasons, and trust me, Babcock is not in the least bit shy about criticizing the refs in-game. He's smart enough not to do it in the media.

OK, good to know. 

 

[BermudaBudsFan]

We need to be real.  This is team is what it is and their record since Christmas is not a fluke.

It's also not a particularly fair look at how good this team is. Andersen missed a fair chunk of that time and an already weak blue line has been hurt by injuries. Absent some of that bad luck and it probably just looks like the kind of bad stretch any playoff team is bound to have in an up and down year.

That?s absolutely true.  But, it?s half the season.  It feels to me more like a deeply flawed team than the usual ups and downs of a season.

 

[Kin]

Yes Muzzin counts and at the time I liked the trade but was unhappy seeing Grundstrom go. He?s exactly the type of player we need.

Shockingly, teams need to sometimes include good players in trades if they want good players.

 

[azzurri63]

Yes Muzzin counts and at the time I liked the trade but was unhappy seeing Grundstrom go. He?s exactly the type of player we need.

Shockingly, teams need to sometimes include good players in trades if they want good players.

I?m not arguing that I said I liked the trade. Made are team better at the time because we didn?t give up a roster player.

What I?m stating is we should have picked up some more d for depth.
Someone we could throw in and wouldn?t hurt us and possibly a replacement for next year.

 

[Kin]

What I?m stating is we should have picked up some more d for depth.
Someone we could throw in and wouldn?t hurt us and possibly a replacement for next year.

And I'm saying that anyone who would represent a significant upgrade over what the Leafs had would have required the Leafs to include good players and/or prospects.

 

[Bender]

Quit blaming he refs.  The Leafs are absolutely awful.

You apprenticing to lc9, I see.

That?s pretty good actually.  Honestly, though, anyone who indicates confidence in the playoffs isn?t thinking rationally.
By the way, they haven?t clinched a spot yet and play on the road on the Island next.

I think everyone knows they haven't played to their potential this season. But I'd rather be on the side of hoping for a win, whatever their chances are, and be wrong than calling for a loss in Round 1 and be right. What do you gain by being right about a loss anyway? A reputation for shadenfreuding the fanbase you're a part of? I don't get it.

Hey, I hope all the time for a win.  I would love nothing more than to be absolutely ridiculed in here after they destroy the Bruins in round one (and every other round for that matter).  We need to be real.  This is team is what it is and their record since Christmas is not a fluke. If there were two extra weeks tacked onto the season, would you bet that they would make the playoffs?

Realism.  If I am a fan of Tampa, Boston, Washington, I say we have a chance to win it all.  Realistically, it?s highly unlikely they get out of round 1.

You can view the team how you like, but I think most of us here have a cautious optimism. I don't know how anyone posting here right now is being a Homer so I don't really understand why it's implied that fans should adjust their optimism.

Their record isn't great since Christmas and they need a string of good games going into the playoffs but Dom Luszyszyn's model predicts the series at roughly 50/50. Moneypuck had it at 44/56. Boston isn't Tampa. I think more importantly than being a Leafs Homer is to not getting overly emotional over a Round 1 exit. At this rate I'll definitely be avoiding the boards if they're down in an elimination game.

 

[BrownRolo]

I'm just disappointed with Sparks.

Leafs should still give Andersen the NYI and Lightning game. Give the other games to Sparks.

 

[Bullfrog]

Fortunately they played well early in the season when points are easier to obtain and help them get in.

No reason why this team with some of the talent we have with this many games left should even be in this position.

We give up so many points to teams we should beat albeit tonight Anderson was good and lucky.

Having said that Babcock and Dubas are both to blame.

Both have cost us points.

Mike with his head scratching coaching decisions and Kyle with some of his signings and inability to bolster the blue line and add some form of grit to this team.

How are points easier to obtain earlier in the season?

 

[herman]

The Leafs have hit the post and Anderson?s stick shaft twice. It isn?t, but the score could easily be 5-2. 30 shots already with a full period to go. Just keep pushing.

This has basically been your response in every leafs loss.

Don?t get him started lc9. LOL.
I agree with Herman but regardless of the shot total and Leafs carrying the play I?m with you there is a lot to improve on this team.

Even in the cold light of the morning, I am still laughing about this.

 

[Leaffan61]

Quit blaming he refs.  The Leafs are absolutely awful. 

They outshot the sens 44-22...

Most of the shots were low danger shots from outside or with a Sen draped on them. I'm sure the advanced stats will say otherwise which is why I don't put much faith in them.

 

[Bender]

Quit blaming he refs.  The Leafs are absolutely awful. 

They outshot the sens 44-22...

Most of the shots were low danger shots from outside or with a Sen draped on them. I'm sure the advanced stats will say otherwise which is why I don't put much faith in them.

So if someone actually watched the game and tallied a higher share of high danger shots you would disregard it?

I don't get how people disregard data but don't have any data other than their coloured memories to refute it.

 

[herman]

The Leafs held a significant margin in shot attempts, and also in dangerous shot locations.
http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20182019&game=21205&view=limited
https://twitter.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/status/1112171630753517568

That they did not go in does not mean the majority of shots were muffins from the blue line and boards.

 

[herman]

Also: counting is not an advanced statistical technique. It is the most basic possible statistic.

Understanding that variance and uncontrollable complications play a significant role in an event occurring in an open-system is harder to wrap the brain around, and that?s why there?s an effort to build conclusions based on foundational empirical data (shot attempts and where they came from) rather than goal results.

 

[herman]

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20182019&game=21204

Here?s how Boston dominated a bad team (Florida) that same night but also lost 4-1.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/TheFlintor/status/1112153863497277444
Just the tip
https://twitter.com/TheFlintor/status/1112152983788118018
Off the shaft

 

[cabber24]

https://twitter.com/TheFlintor/status/1112153863497277444
Just the tip
https://twitter.com/TheFlintor/status/1112152983788118018
Off the shaft

Juggling the puck in midair in traffic like that... wow. If that went in that goal would have been on all the highlights.

 

[disco]

Nice posts from The Magician Herman, man that dude is special.