Leafs Sign Shawn Matthias

[Kin]

Long-term, I agree. But, for next season in particular? I don't know. With all the signings being made, I think it indicates that they don't feel too many of the guys you bring up are ready for full-time duty in the NHL yet. Of the older forward prospects with real NHL potential, only Leivo (and maybe Carrick, depending on how you feel about his potential) has professional experience of any significance.

Sure, but Hyman's 23. Bailey will be 24 in October and the Leafs are in a unique situation where they can get NHL ice time and not worry too much about the consequences.

If there were a real upside to giving Veteran's 4th line minutes I'd see it but really think Santorelli and Winnik's success last year isn't something you can just double down on and get 5 or 6 examples of. I don't know I see a real upside to having a whole team of veterans.

 

[bustaheims]

Sure, but Hyman's 23. Bailey will be 24 in October and the Leafs are in a unique situation where they can get NHL ice time and not worry too much about the consequences.

If there were a real upside to giving Veteran's 4th line minutes I'd see it but really think Santorelli and Winnik's success last year isn't something you can just double down on and get 5 or 6 examples of. I don't know I see a real upside to having a whole team of veterans.

I think there's a lot of benefit in making sure you put young players in positions where they're more likely to succeed, and for guys like Bailey and Hyman, that's more likely to be in the AHL this season. That's the upside of having a team filled out with vets on 1 or 2 year deals. Even if they don't return much at the deadline - and, obviously, some of them won't. It allows the players to come along at their pace, rather than the pace we want them to. The fact that Hyman is 23 doesn't matter to me as much as the fact that he has zero professional experience. Similar situation with Bailey. It's much more important that they grow at the right pace in relation to their abilities and their experience than it is to place them somewhere because of their age. If there's any chance these guys are going to be able to contribute to the team long-term, they have to be brought along at the right pace for them.

 

[Kin]

I think there's a lot of benefit in making sure you put young players in positions where they're more likely to succeed, and for guys like Bailey and Hyman, that's more likely to be in the AHL this season. That's the upside of having a team filled out with vets on 1 or 2 year deals. Even if they don't return much at the deadline - and, obviously, some of them won't. It allows the players to come along at their pace, rather than the pace we want them to. The fact that Hyman is 23 doesn't matter to me as much as the fact that he has zero professional experience. Similar situation with Bailey. It's much more important that they grow at the right pace in relation to their abilities and their experience than it is to place them somewhere because of their age. If there's any chance these guys are going to be able to contribute to the team long-term, they have to be brought along at the right pace for them.

Well, I generally disagree that players who are 23 or 24 and who've played four years of college hockey are more likely to succeed after time in the AHL. I think it's pretty telling that even a AHL happy organization like the Red Wings signed someone like DeKeyser and just immediately put him in the NHL.

But, again, if the Leafs are making this decision because they think that Bailey or Hyman are genuinely better suited, development wise, to the AHL then I'm fine with it. I don't necessarily agree but I'm fine with leaving that in their hands. My point is that I don't think you put those guys in the AHL just so you can squeeze more potential deadline deals into the line-up.

 

[herman]

Based on their moves this offseason so far, I think the Leafs are in a holding pattern to see which of the remaining Carlyle-Leafs can handle the new Babcock expectations and structure. The team is canvassed in useful stop-gap veterans (ostensibly for picks) to buy time for the higher-ceiling prospects to gain more development time.

Where does that put Bailey and Hyman and Soshnikov? They're probably fighting for spots against Spaling, Frattin, Panik, Leivo, Carrick, Froese at the beginning of the season. Whoever doesn't quite make it at the beginning will get shots throughout the season as injury callups and post-deadline (if they're still around) anyway.

If I were management, I'd aim to move anyone over 24 by the end of the season, or at the next draft -- Bozak, Lupul, JvR, Komarov, all the D except Rielly (and maybe Gardiner). Next year, we run with the full-blown youth movement and fill in the gaps with band-aid UFAs. That'll make for two seasons of trying hard but not good enough to win too much.

What do you guys think?

 

[Highlander]

Herman as always very astute. I would keep JVR however, I think he will work like a horse for Babcock.

 

[herman]

Herman as always very astute. I would keep JVR however, I think he will work like a horse for Babcock.

Thanks Highlander. I like JvR too, but I think he has more value as the prime tradechip for a good hockey trade due to his development curve/age relative to when we expect to contend.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Kind of crazy, Matthias ranks 24th out of 218 forwards who have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in goals/60 from 2012-2015.

 

[Highlander]

That is impressive

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kind of crazy, Matthias ranks 24th out of 218 forwards who have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in goals/60 from 2012-2015.

Even if you just want to look at the raw totals the guys in Matthias' games/ES-goals territory are: Lucic, Kopitar, Hossa, Parise, Kadri, Ryan, Voracek, Kunitz, Vanek, Skinner, Laad, Saad.

 

[Kin]

Based on their moves this offseason so far, I think the Leafs are in a holding pattern to see which of the remaining Carlyle-Leafs can handle the new Babcock expectations and structure. The team is canvassed in useful stop-gap veterans (ostensibly for picks) to buy time for the higher-ceiling prospects to gain more development time.

Where does that put Bailey and Hyman and Soshnikov? They're probably fighting for spots against Spaling, Frattin, Panik, Leivo, Carrick, Froese at the beginning of the season. Whoever doesn't quite make it at the beginning will get shots throughout the season as injury callups and post-deadline (if they're still around) anyway.

If I were management, I'd aim to move anyone over 24 by the end of the season, or at the next draft -- Bozak, Lupul, JvR, Komarov, all the D except Rielly (and maybe Gardiner). Next year, we run with the full-blown youth movement and fill in the gaps with band-aid UFAs. That'll make for two seasons of trying hard but not good enough to win too much.

What do you guys think?

I don't really see why they'd be in a "holding pattern" with regards to guys they largely plan to ship out anyway.

 

[herman]

I don't really see why they'd be in a "holding pattern" with regards to guys they largely plan to ship out anyway.

I can see a few benefits:

• Incoming GM gets to make a mark, and hunt down his own choices
• Waiting for a buyers' market when others teams get more dumb
• Shave a year off contracts to make them more attractive
• Kids aren't ready yet

 

[Kin]

Incoming GM gets to make a mark, and hunt down his own choices

I don't entirely know what you mean by this but I really think that the idea that the Leafs are going to hire a GM who's going to be running the show in any meaningful way doesn't have a lot behind it. If whoever eventually has the title of GM was seen to be someone who'd need to "make a mark" they'd have hired one already.

Waiting for a buyers' market when others teams get more dumb

There's really no guarantee that will happen though. The league might have another year of slower than expected growth and we'll see a worse market next summer.

Shave a year off contracts to make them more attractive
Kids aren't ready yet

Something might be getting lost in translation here. When you said:

I think the Leafs are in a holding pattern to see which of the remaining Carlyle-Leafs can handle the new Babcock expectations and structure.

It certainly sounds like you're implying that the team is looking to evaluate their players and how they respond to Babcock but your response here suggests that they've already made up their mind about trading people away, they're just not sure when to do it. So what I was saying is that if they're scorching the earth, it's not going to be dependent on how Lupul plays under Babcock.

 

[hobarth]

Long-term, I agree. But, for next season in particular? I don't know. With all the signings being made, I think it indicates that they don't feel too many of the guys you bring up are ready for full-time duty in the NHL yet. Of the older forward prospects with real NHL potential, only Leivo (and maybe Carrick, depending on how you feel about his potential) has professional experience of any significance.

Sure, but Hyman's 23. Bailey will be 24 in October and the Leafs are in a unique situation where they can get NHL ice time and not worry too much about the consequences.

If there were a real upside to giving Veteran's 4th line minutes I'd see it but really think Santorelli and Winnik's success last year isn't something you can just double down on and get 5 or 6 examples of. I don't know I see a real upside to having a whole team of veterans.

I agree with you here maybe for different reasons but I'd like to see some progression from TO's prospects but the rub is are they ready or worthy?

I think it was Dubas who said if the prospects are ready there's a place for them much the same as BB was saying back in the day when Colborne was being yoyoed and TO was signing Connolly and trading for Lombardi. I'm hoping TO going forward is drafting better, developing better and ultimately thriving mostly via internal growth. This last draft was Hunter's first, pretty well the entire scouting department was fired so we can assume that the state of TO's farm system is a mess no matter how desperately we want to see Percy, Leivo, Johnson or whoever graduate.

Mathias is a curious player, TO got him cheap, 18 goal players who score so much on 13 min. TOI you would think would be much in demand? His possession stats are not good and at 13 min. TOI one can only assume that his level of competition would normally have been 3rd liners. I believe he was the only poor possession stated TO has signed so far.

 

[herman]

Incoming GM gets to make a mark, and hunt down his own choices

I don't entirely know what you mean by this but I really think that the idea that the Leafs are going to hire a GM who's going to be running the show in any meaningful way doesn't have a lot behind it. If whoever eventually has the title of GM was seen to be someone who'd need to "make a mark" they'd have hired one already.

Waiting for a buyers' market when others teams get more dumb

There's really no guarantee that will happen though. The league might have another year of slower than expected growth and we'll see a worse market next summer.

Shave a year off contracts to make them more attractive
Kids aren't ready yet

Something might be getting lost in translation here. When you said:

I think the Leafs are in a holding pattern to see which of the remaining Carlyle-Leafs can handle the new Babcock expectations and structure.

It certainly sounds like you're implying that the team is looking to evaluate their players and how they respond to Babcock but your response here suggests that they've already made up their mind about trading people away, they're just not sure when to do it. So what I was saying is that if they're scorching the earth, it's not going to be dependent on how Lupul plays under Babcock.

I'm thinking they're just going to name Mark Hunter their GM and was too oblique about saying it.

The evaluation would be for the younger holdover players (Rielly, Holland, Panik, Kadri, Gardiner, JvR). Everyone else is clearly not part of the Cup contention plan, no?

 

[Kin]

I'm thinking they're just going to name Mark Hunter their GM and was too oblique about saying it.

The evaluation would be for the younger holdover players (Rielly, Holland, Panik, Kadri, Gardiner, JvR). Everyone else is clearly not part of the Cup contention plan, no?

I still don't see how that explains not trading some of the other guys outside of vague hopes for "dumb" teams to lose their senses with regards to mediocre players.

 

[herman]

I'm thinking they're just going to name Mark Hunter their GM and was too oblique about saying it.

The evaluation would be for the younger holdover players (Rielly, Holland, Panik, Kadri, Gardiner, JvR). Everyone else is clearly not part of the Cup contention plan, no?

I still don't see how that explains not trading some of the other guys outside of vague hopes for "dumb" teams to lose their senses with regards to mediocre players.

Is this a question regarding my theory or the team's current behaviour?

 

[Kin]

Is this a question regarding my theory or the team's current behaviour?

Your theory. I think it's more likely that the guys who the team hasn't traded yet but who don't fit into their long range plans are either guys who figure to be more valuable at the deadline(Polak) or guys they can't move, even if they'd like to.

 

[herman]

Is this a question regarding my theory or the team's current behaviour?

Your theory. I think it's more likely that the guys who the team hasn't traded yet but who don't fit into their long range plans are either guys who figure to be more valuable at the deadline(Polak) or guys they can't move, even if they'd like to.

Gotcha. I thought I was saying that, but you're clearer about it.

 

[Frank E]

I'm thinking they're just going to name Mark Hunter their GM and was too oblique about saying it.

The evaluation would be for the younger holdover players (Rielly, Holland, Panik, Kadri, Gardiner, JvR). Everyone else is clearly not part of the Cup contention plan, no?

I still don't see how that explains not trading some of the other guys outside of vague hopes for "dumb" teams to lose their senses with regards to mediocre players.

I'm in the "liquidate" camp, but a guy like Lupul is obviously not movable...Bozak less so, but let's just say that they haven't found any takers.  Given this, maybe they've convinced themselves to roll the dice on a contender having injury issues mid-season to the extent that they need to make a deal for a top-6 forward, and the Leafs could move them for basically nothing.

I mean, at this point I can see other teams taking on Lupul only if a guy like Brown was thrown in the deal, and I don't think the Leafs are prepared to go down that road yet.

 

[Kin]

I'm in the "liquidate" camp, but a guy like Lupul is obviously not movable...Bozak less so, but let's just say that they haven't found any takers.  Given this, maybe they've convinced themselves to roll the dice on a contender having injury issues mid-season to the extent that they need to make a deal for a top-6 forward, and the Leafs could move them for basically nothing.

I mean, at this point I can see other teams taking on Lupul only if a guy like Brown was thrown in the deal, and I don't think the Leafs are prepared to go down that road yet.

But that was kind of my point. The way I read what herman was saying, he was contending that hanging on to guys like Lupul and Bozak was a strategic choice to both drive up their value and to insulate younger players from the NHL.

The way I see it is that it's not a strategic choice, they're just stuck with some bad contracts. So it doesn't so much matter what they've "convinced" themselves or what sort of scenarios might pop up where a team might trade for Lupul, their hands are just tied there.