Zee
Active member
Significantly Insignificant said:Heroic Shrimp said:Besides the two goals, I noticed Matthews more prominently than usual defensively last night, not that he isn?t always solid defensively.
I actually think that Matthews defensive contributions predict the Leafs winning, more than his goal scoring. I took a look at Matthews +/- for the season and correlated that to loses. I know that +/- isn't the greatest stat, but I just wanted to do something quick and dirty to see how that number correlates to the Leafs winning or losing. Here are the numbers:
Loses
Oct 18 - Rangers: 0
Oct 22 - Sharks: -2
Oct 23 - Pens: 0
Oct 25 - Canes: -1
Nov 8 - Kings: -2
Nov 20 - Pens: -1
Dec 4 - Wild: -2
Dev 5 - Jets: -1
Dec 9 - Lightning: -2
Jan 12 - Coyotes: 1
Jan 19 - Rangers: -2
Feb 10 - Flames: -1
Feb 12 - Canucks: -1
Feb 19 - Blues: -2
Feb 21 - Canadiens: -1
Mar 2 - Sabres: -2
Mar 5 - Canucks: -1
Mar 10 - Coyotes: 0
Mar 13 - Sabres: -2
Mar 26 - Canadiens: -1
April 5 - Panthers: -2
Wins
Oct 30 - Det: -1
Nov 18 - Ranger: -1
Jan 22 - Islanders: -1
Jan 26 - Ducks: -1
Mar 29 - Bruins: -1
Only once this year, have the Leafs lost when Matthews is a positive player, and only 4 times this year have the Leafs managed to win the game when Matthews is a - player. I think that if a deeper dive was done, it would show that on the nights where Matthews isn't as effective defensively, those are the nights where the Leafs are going to struggle to win, regardless of if he scores.
I mean +/- just shows that Matthews get more 5 on 5 time than other players on the Leafs. On games the Leafs win it's logical he'd be a + and vice versa. Not sure it can correlate with how well he's playing defensively in that game.