Leivo asks to traded, Sosh being showcased?

[Bullfrog]

JvR is 23rd in total goals and goals/game in the NHL over the last five seasons (including the current one). Leivo is similar in size and can't crack an NHL roster.

To be fair, we don't have any evidence outside the fact he can't crack a very deep Leafs' roster.

Agreed. I really like Leivo and want to see him have a chance. I'm enamoured with guys like him and Holland; guys I know are fringe NHLers/bottom six guys. But, I would definitely rather see them over Martin and other plugs.

 

[cabber24]

JvR is 23rd in total goals and goals/game in the NHL over the last five seasons (including the current one). Leivo is similar in size and can't crack an NHL roster.

I just ran the last 5 years and may be 23rd in goals but he's also a -48. He's a one trick pony. We likely can't afford JVR if we want to keep the band together so it is prudent to consider other options and Leivo should be considered since he's already on the roster and we have trade deadline quickly approaching.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I just ran the last 5 years and maybe 23rd in goals but he's also a -48. He's a one trick pony. We likely can't afford JVR if we want to keep the band together so it is prudent to consider other options and Leivo should be considered since he's already on the roster and we have trade deadline quickly approaching.

That's largely because of one bad season in Carlyle's last year when he was a -33. If you look at just the past 3 years under Babcock at 5-on-5 JVR's GF% is 53%, and his goals/60 minutes is 8th in the league.

I myself have been guilty of suggesting that JVR's 5-on-5 play is probably replaceable, but it really isn't. Certainly not by Leivo.

 

[cabber24]

I just ran the last 5 years and maybe 23rd in goals but he's also a -48. He's a one trick pony. We likely can't afford JVR if we want to keep the band together so it is prudent to consider other options and Leivo should be considered since he's already on the roster and we have trade deadline quickly approaching.

That's largely because of one bad season in Carlyle's last year when he was a -33. If you look at just the past 3 years under Babcock at 5-on-5 JVR's GF% is 53%, and his goals/60 minutes is 8th in the league.

I myself have been guilty of suggesting that JVR's 5-on-5 play is probably replaceable, but it really isn't. Certainly not by Leivo.

Okay so what's the plan resign him at 5.75 x 8? Can't have your cake and eat it too. Who do you think is coming back out of Komi, Bozak, and JVR if any? Who should replace these guys? Should we not considering dealing these guys at the deadline. No two players are the same but someone has to take the roster spot. I would argue Levio and Soshnikov are first in line.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Okay so what's the plan resign him at 5.75 x 8? Can't have your cake and eat it too. Who do you think is coming back out of Komi, Bozak, and JVR if any? Who should replace these guys? Should we not considering dealing these guys at the deadline. No two players are the same but someone has to take the roster spot. I would argue Levio and Soshnikov are first in line.

The only point I was making is that JVR is one of the most efficient goal scorers in the league, and he can't be easily replaced by a 24-year old with 54 NHL games under his belt just because he is of similar weight and height.

As for whether or not we should re-sign him at an Oshie-like contract, I honestly don't know if there's a right or wrong answer there.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I just ran the last 5 years and maybe 23rd in goals but he's also a -48. He's a one trick pony. We likely can't afford JVR if we want to keep the band together so it is prudent to consider other options and Leivo should be considered since he's already on the roster and we have trade deadline quickly approaching.

That's largely because of one bad season in Carlyle's last year when he was a -33. If you look at just the past 3 years under Babcock at 5-on-5 JVR's GF% is 53%, and his goals/60 minutes is 8th in the league.

I myself have been guilty of suggesting that JVR's 5-on-5 play is probably replaceable, but it really isn't. Certainly not by Leivo.

I take your point, but the flip side of that is that he has been heavily sheltered in a third line role.

So can you justify paying him as a top-six winger when you need to play him in a third line role to prevent him being victimized defensively?

I like him a lot and I don't think we have a like for like replacement, but he isn't great defensively, needs to be played on the third line because against quality competition he gets taken advantage of, he isn't a great skater and only scores from within 5 feet of the net.

I think you have to trade him and hope that his replacement from within can be a net positive when you factor in all aspects of the game.

All that being said, he might be the best player in the league around the net on the PP and given that he could age well because those aren't things that are liable to diminish with age.

I just can't justify paying a third liner close to six million or more into his late thirties when the team is swimming in prospects in his position, it's poor asset management.

Kapanen-Matthews-Hyman
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
Soshnikov-Komarov-Levio

That 12 plus whatever trade return you get from JVR and Bozak seems like a smarter move to me.

 

[herman]

Okay so what's the plan resign him at 5.75 x 8? Can't have your cake and eat it too. Who do you think is coming back out of Komi, Bozak, and JVR if any? Who should replace these guys? Should we not considering dealing these guys at the deadline. No two players are the same but someone has to take the roster spot. I would argue Leivo and Soshnikov are first in line.

The plan is the same as it is every day, cabber
  - try to take over the world
  - to listen to all offers
  - to bolster areas of weakness if the price is right
  - to pursue opportunities to buy low on high potential
  - to increase contract and cap flexibility
Keeping in mind your team's priorities for each of the above.

The best way to make a bad deal is to lock into a path, telegraph to everyone you need to make this shot, and then 30 GMs chum up to you with their garbage in tow.

 

[herman]

Honestly, I think Sosh and Leivo are more likely to be traded than JvR.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I take your point, but the flip side of that is that he has been heavily sheltered in a third line role.

So can you justify paying him as a top-six winger when you need to play him in a third line role to prevent him being victimized defensively?

But the flip side of THAT is that if he was playing on the top line he goes from Bozak to Kadri or even Matthews. So quality of competition might go up but so does quality of team mates. And JVR's shown in the past (when he played with Kessel) that he can produce on a top line. Granted they played a run-and-guny style that wouldn't work with Babcock but I don't really have much doubt that JVR would put up impressive numbers with Matthews.

But I do agree with your general point, and I've said it myself recently that if the Leafs are even remotely considering re-signing JVR they have to try him in the top-6, preferably with Matthews. I agree completely that you can't have him playing under 15 minutes if you're going to give him $6mil-ish.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Honestly, I think Sosh and Leivo are more likely to be traded than JvR.

JVR's not getting traded.

One of Sosh or Leivo will probably be gone within the week though I think.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I take your point, but the flip side of that is that he has been heavily sheltered in a third line role.

So can you justify paying him as a top-six winger when you need to play him in a third line role to prevent him being victimized defensively?

But the flip side of THAT is that if he was playing on the top line he goes from Bozak to Kadri or even Matthews. So quality of competition might go up but so does quality of team mates. And JVR's shown in the past (when he played with Kessel) that he can produce on a top line. Granted they played a run-and-guny style that wouldn't work with Babcock but I don't really have much doubt that JVR would put up impressive numbers with Matthews.

But I do agree with your general point, and I've said it myself recently that if the Leafs are even remotely considering re-signing JVR they have to try him in the top-6, preferably with Matthews. I agree completely that you can't have him playing under 15 minutes if you're going to give him $6mil-ish.

He can produce offensively sure, but that line got murdered defensively most nights (I know, not just his fault), I don't think you can say that it shows he can play in a first line role.

In general, I agree with you and herman, I doubt he gets moved.

Worse case scenario for me is that they get mauled in the first round and JVR walks as a UFA, that would be an absolute disaster and the opposite of what a management group looking to build a perennial contender should do.

Cap space is great, but you need to be honest about the player and the team and act accordingly in the big picture sense.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kapanen-Matthews-Hyman
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
Soshnikov-Komarov-Levio

That 12 plus whatever trade return you get from JVR and Bozak seems like a smarter move to me.

Trying to stay realistic, for this season I would drop Leivo over Soshnikov right now to make room on the roster, and basically go into the playoffs with what we have. If I could unload Bozak or Komarov or Martin at the deadline I would, but I don't see management doing it.

In the offseason, let Bozak and Komarov walk. Trade Martin for whatever you can get. Re-sign JVR to an Oshie deal. Sign a speedy 4C type, or use Aaltonen if the group thinks he can fill that role. Go into next season with:

JVR-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Hyman-Nylander-Brown
Johnsson-Aaltonen-Soshnikov

With a possible $82mil cap, and with Nylander and Marner's extensions possibly looking like they could be more like Pasta's deal than say Draisaitl's, I think we probably have a little more cap room than we figure. And in the near-ish future we'd still have Marleau and Hainsey's deals coming off the books for later cap relief.

 

[herman]

Basically, they should have moved JvR a year or two ago, but clearly felt that holding pat for the playoff experience was more valuable than the offers they were receiving. Trade value is probably too low now, compared to what JvR remaining on the team provides (3rd line overmatch is critical to success, in my observation).

Him re-signing with us is not completely out of the picture, and with expansion in Seattle looming, there's an opportunity to shed a bad cap hit through exposure, either by making JvR more palatable or getting rid of him entirely.

Pros for keeping JvR:
- health nut
- hockey nut
- loves Toronto
- scores 30 goals with 12 min a night, so...

There's value (to the room) in re-signing JvR, rather than ruthlessly dumping him for asset management reasons (even though I'd prefer that route for non-core players). Superstars are more likely to stay if they see their peers/friends treated well.

My optimal keep-JvR solution (for next season) is to get a true shutdown C (Mikael Backlund) and reconfigure to suit. Kadri is a huge upgrade over Bozak.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Backlund - Kapanen/Brown
JvR - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - Whoever* - Brown/Kapanen

* maybe even Komarov, but probably a righty is preferred

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Him re-signing with us is not completely out of the picture, and with expansion in Seattle looming, there's an opportunity to shed a bad cap hit through exposure, either by making JvR more palatable or getting rid of him entirely.

This isn't something that's been looked at yet really (and it is still far away), but we're almost certainly going to lose a pretty good player or asset there.

 

[herman]

Him re-signing with us is not completely out of the picture, and with expansion in Seattle looming, there's an opportunity to shed a bad cap hit through exposure, either by making JvR more palatable or getting rid of him entirely.

This isn't something that's been looked at yet really (and it is still far away), but we're almost certainly going to lose a pretty good player or asset there.

Right. Sign JvR this offseason, either lose JvR to expansion later when he's 31/32, or shed a different salary. With the way Vegas went and Seattle insisting on the same expansion rules, pretty sure there will be side deals galore, and this time we're going to need to use that.

 

[cabber24]

If we do trade Leivo and Sosh I feel it compounds the problem of losing our UFAs. Maybe we should just say to bad so sad to Leivo and Sosh. We're not trading you and you're not playing until maybe next year. We're still amazingly healthy and it's shocking these guys haven't had more opportunity to play.

 

[Kin]

There's value (to the room) in re-signing JvR, rather than ruthlessly dumping him for asset management reasons (even though I'd prefer that route for non-core players). Superstars are more likely to stay if they see their peers/friends treated well.

Were I a lawyer, this is where I'd talk about facts not in evidence.

 

[Big Daddy]

Kapanen-Matthews-Hyman
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
Soshnikov-Komarov-Levio

That 12 plus whatever trade return you get from JVR and Bozak seems like a smarter move to me.
[/quote]

If the return was Parayko and we could throw in Leivo.  Then our 4th line would be
Soshnikov-Gauthier-Komarov