Line-up changes

[slapshot]

Things are going to get interesting over the next few weeks. How will things play out? Right now, possibly like this:

MacArthur and Connolly play next week. MacArthur takes his spot. That means Frattin goes either 1) to third line or 2) Marlies. Bozak goes to third line. Fourth line looks something like Steckel between Brown and Dupuis. But where does Lombardi go? What happens when Kadri comes back?

Does Gardiner stick around? If so, how does Franson get in some time?

Lots of questions, some tough decisions for Wilson and co.

 

[caver]

Big trade, big trade, big trade.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

My guess:

Lupul-Connolly-Kessel
Kulemin-Grabovski-MacArthur
Lombardi-Bozak-Armstrong
Brown-Steckel-Frattin
Dupuis

When Kadri comes back, I think it will be up to him to unseat either Bozak or Frattin, but I don't think it's a given.

On defence, I imagine that Franson and Gardiner will spot each other, at least until one dominantly asserts himself or a trade is made.

A trade really needs to happen, there are too many NHL-calibre players in the system for it not to happen. I imagine a team such as Anaheim, Edmonton or New Jersey would welcome the affordable depth a trade with Toronto could bring.

 

[McPwnage]

My guess:

Lupul-Connolly-Kessel
Kulemin-Grabovski-MacArthur
Lombardi-Bozak-Armstrong
Brown-Steckel-Frattin
Dupuis

When Kadri comes back, I think it will be up to him to unseat either Bozak or Frattin, but I don't think it's a given.

On defence, I imagine that Franson and Gardiner will spot each other, at least until one dominantly asserts himself or a trade is made.

A trade really needs to happen, there are too many NHL-calibre players in the system for it not to happen. I imagine a team such as Anaheim, Edmonton or New Jersey would welcome the affordable depth a trade with Toronto could bring.

The question though is what do they have that we want?  In terms of good players under 30 the guys I want I don't think they would give. 
-I doubt we could get Taylor Hall or Ryan Nugent Hopkins from the Oilers, maybe Magnus Paarjavi or Eberle but are they really going to be better than the core group we have right now? 
-I doubt we could get any of the super line from the ducks
-I doubt we could get Parise from the Devils, he will probably be delt at the deadline and even if we get him what gaurentees he stays past this year? 

 

[McPwnage]

The way I see it is that Gardiner will eventually be sent down to the AHL until there is a trade in place.  I think we have to figure out a few things before trading like if MacArthur can repeat or not, can lombardi get his offence back, etc.  I think if Frattin can play effectivly until kadri is healthy he will stay up but he will be replaced by kadri if he isn't doing well.  This is my projected roster in the forseeable future...

Lupul - Connolly - Kessel
MacArthur - Grabovski - Kulemin
Frattin - Bozak - Armstrong
Lombardi - Steckel - Brown

Gunnarsson - Phaneuf
Schenn - Liles
Franson - Komisarek

Gardiner will be sent down, probably not next saturday but sooner or later.  Komisarek will continue to be our 6th dman even though he does nothing offensively and is defensively incompitent and either aulie or gardiner are both much better options for his spot on the roster. 

 

[moon111]

Komisarek was on .0587 goals against/minute played.
Schenn was on for .0567 goal against/minute played.
Komisarek blocked .1144 shots/minute
Schenn blocked .0916 shots/minute
Both were in the top 30 for hits by defensemen.
Schenn is treated like he can do no wrong where Komisarek is often bashed.  I think the only reason for this fan behavior is due to their salaries and not on ice performance.  I like Schenn, he's better offensively.  But Komisarek will fight more.  IMHO the on-ice margin between the two is closer then most fans under and over-valuations.

 

[Number 5]

Komisarek was on .0587 goals against/minute played.
Schenn was on for .0567 goal against/minute played.
Komisarek blocked .1144 shots/minute
Schenn blocked .0916 shots/minute
Both were in the top 30 for hits by defensemen.
Schenn is treated like he can do no wrong where Komisarek is often bashed.  I think the only reason for this fan behavior is due to their salaries and not on ice performance.  I like Schenn, he's better offensively.  But Komisarek will fight more.  IMHO the on-ice margin between the two is closer then most fans under and over-valuations.

Did you not see Komisarek 'play' last season? The bashing was fully warranted, though I'll grant you that it's too early to be bashing him just yet.

 

[Moot Point]

It's still early in the season but Komi has been pretty solid so far and hopefully stays that way(fingers crossed).

 

[McPwnage]

Komisarek was on .0587 goals against/minute played.
Schenn was on for .0567 goal against/minute played.
Komisarek blocked .1144 shots/minute
Schenn blocked .0916 shots/minute
Both were in the top 30 for hits by defensemen.
Schenn is treated like he can do no wrong where Komisarek is often bashed.  I think the only reason for this fan behavior is due to their salaries and not on ice performance.  I like Schenn, he's better offensively.  But Komisarek will fight more.  IMHO the on-ice margin between the two is closer then most fans under and over-valuations.

how did you get those stats?  Also two games is way too early to compile something like that and schenn is on against much tougher guys than the 6th man komi.  Also Schenn is +1 and komi is -1 for what it is worth.  Komi is just a useless caphit that somehow got an A

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm assuming those are last season stats.

 

[Kin]

Komisarek was on .0587 goals against/minute played.
Schenn was on for .0567 goal against/minute played.
Komisarek blocked .1144 shots/minute
Schenn blocked .0916 shots/minute
Both were in the top 30 for hits by defensemen.
Schenn is treated like he can do no wrong where Komisarek is often bashed.  I think the only reason for this fan behavior is due to their salaries and not on ice performance.  I like Schenn, he's better offensively.  But Komisarek will fight more.  IMHO the on-ice margin between the two is closer then most fans under and over-valuations.

Putting a pin in the validity of those stats, and that's a really big pin, I think it may have something to do with the fact that Schenn is 21 and seen as a developing prospect and Komisarek is almost 30.

And anyone who says Schenn "can do no wrong" in the eyes of fans or media must have slept through the first half of last season.

 

[Kin]

Now for the stats:

Komisarek was on .0587 goals against/minute played.
Schenn was on for .0567 goal against/minute played.

So...essentially a less informative +/- is what you're using to statistically gauge defensive performance?

The criticism leveled at Komisarek, the criticism of any defenseman, is going to revolve around the part he played in those goals being scored and that's not something a number can easily tell you, especially not one that just counts up the goals against.

Komisarek blocked .1144 shots/minute
Schenn blocked .0916 shots/minute

Here's a hypothetical. If you have two defensemen, one of which is very good at getting the puck out of his zone and the other is very bad at it, which of those two is going to get more opportunities to block a shot?

If your answer was "Hey, that doesn't sound like a hypothetical at all" then you get partial credit.

Both were in the top 30 for hits by defensemen.

Yes, Schenn was #1, Komisarek was #29. This is along the lines of "I don't know why people say Daniel Sedin had a better year than Danny Briere. They were both in the top 30 in scoring"

Comparing two pretty much exclusively defensive defensemen based entirely on numbers you can get off NHL.com isn't going to be terribly illuminating.

 

[Kaberle15]

A trade really needs to happen, there are too many NHL-calibre players in the system for it not to happen. I imagine a team such as Anaheim, Edmonton or New Jersey would welcome the affordable depth a trade with Toronto could bring.

Please Burke, get us Lebda/Beauchemin value with Komisarek!

 

[moon111]

Now for the stats:

Komisarek was on .0587 goals against/minute played.
Schenn was on for .0567 goal against/minute played.

So...essentially a less informative +/- is what you're using to statistically gauge defensive performance?

The criticism leveled at Komisarek, the criticism of any defenseman, is going to revolve around the part he played in those goals being scored and that's not something a number can easily tell you, especially not one that just counts up the goals against.

Komisarek blocked .1144 shots/minute
Schenn blocked .0916 shots/minute

Here's a hypothetical. If you have two defensemen, one of which is very good at getting the puck out of his zone and the other is very bad at it, which of those two is going to get more opportunities to block a shot?

If your answer was "Hey, that doesn't sound like a hypothetical at all" then you get partial credit.

Both were in the top 30 for hits by defensemen.

Yes, Schenn was #1, Komisarek was #29. This is along the lines of "I don't know why people say Daniel Sedin had a better year than Danny Briere. They were both in the top 30 in scoring"

Comparing two pretty much exclusively defensive defensemen based entirely on numbers you can get off NHL.com isn't going to be terribly illuminating.

I agree stats don't always give the whole story.  But the way some people talk, you'd think there was no way one could even make the comparison.  It's like some people heard how much his contract was and from that day forward went on a witch hunt.  Yes I think he tried to live up to that billing and looked like a fool for playing outside his game.  Yes I think all defensive defensemen end up looking bad at times, especially since they're often the last skater involved before a goal is scored or not.  From what I've seen, he'll battle in front of the net, not get out-powered by anyone, and fight when called upon.  Lately, he hasn't looked too bad when anything that gets by him doesn't immediately go in the back of the net.  If anything, he might be too much of a good thing and due to his age and salary, might be the best asset to trade away.  If he is trade-bait, there's no way he loses his spot in the line-up, diminishing his trade-value.  There's plenty of teams that could use and appreciate his attributes and I'd expect Burke to get a decent return.

 

[Kin]

I agree stats don't always give the whole story.  But the way some people talk, you'd think there was no way one could even make the comparison. 

Yes. This is because Komisarek, 30, has been awful, while Schenn, 21, has not. There's a reason why it's been the consensus.

 

[moon111]

I agree stats don't always give the whole story.  But the way some people talk, you'd think there was no way one could even make the comparison. 

Yes. This is because Komisarek, 30, has been awful, while Schenn, 21, has not. There's a reason why it's been the consensus.

Well if it's the consensus, that means no other team is going to want him and with his contract he's here to stay.  So relax and enjoy the rest of his playing career in a Leaf jersey. 

 

[jonlleafs]

I think Komisarek is much improved this season in all fairness.  Penalty killing has been pretty good with him in there.  We all need to relax and see how he plays with his confidence back.

 

[Kin]

Well if it's the consensus, that means no other team is going to want him and with his contract he's here to stay.  So relax and enjoy the rest of his playing career in a Leaf jersey.

I think most people have made their peace with Komisarek's contract at this point. The issue going forward is to what extent his contract will force him into the lineup.

 

[cw]

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/10/10/no-escaping-leafs-nation/
Nazem Kadri, who tore his MCL during training camp, practised on a line with Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin on Monday. When asked how the youngster was progressing, head coach Ron Wilson seemed torn.

?I?ve been told that he could actually be ready by the end of the week,? Wilson said of Kadri. ?The little bastard?s coming back quicker than I expected. A little heat on me. We?ll figure something out though.?

Indeed, with Kadri and Tim Connolly both returning from injury and Clarke MacArthur having served his two-game suspension, the Leafs are about to run into a roster problem.

When all three are back ? MacArthur missed practice because of a minor elbow infection ? the team will be two players over the 23-man roster limit. So who comes out?

?I don?t know,? said Wilson when asked if Kadri would be sent down to the minors. ?And if I did, I wouldn?t tell you anyhow without talking to him first if anything like that was happening.?

So the both decisions on the roster could happen this week.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I really think this is going to be a tough decision for the Leafs to make. One player is easy, they send either Rosehill or Orr down and that will in all likelihood be Rosehill, even if he's not the one they want to send down. The other player to go is not such and easy decision.

I would consider sending Gardiner down to get some work and that will at least be good in two ways, it allows Franson to get into the line up, but it also allows the Leafs to keep both Kadri and Frattin up and evaluate both of them at the same time. Otherwise Burke needs to make a trade, whether he wants to or not. Depth is great to have, but at some point, you have to move it if it's going to cause these types of problems, especially if you have players that are NHL worthy and ready.

While I think Gradiner could stay up, I really think that is the move to make as he can go down there and play big minutes and first PP time. His defensive game could certainly use the work on a regular basis.