Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[Bender]

This always helps me to sort out games in hand:
Rk  Team            Pts Win%
1 BOSTON              0.650
2 PHILADELPHIA      0.643
3 FLORIDA              0.643
4 NY RANGERS        0.639
5 PITTSBURGH        0.636
6 WASHINGTON      0.625
7 BUFFALO            0.595
8 TORONTO            0.591
9 NEW JERSEY        0.575
10 OTTAWA            0.524
11 MONTREAL        0.523
12 TAMPA BAY        0.500
13 WINNIPEG          0.476
14 CAROLINA          0.435
15 NY ISLANDERS  0.368

Things are actually looking up from here. I think those numbers can only improve once the troops start coming off the IR. Reimer coming back soon should help improve the winning percentage alone. Its fun to be a Leaf fan once again. Hopefully we'll be watching some Leaf playoff hockey come April.

Totally agree with this. They're coming off a rash of injuries and will be getting their starting goaltender back.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

They went back to 1993 in that study, but I believe post-lockout the stats are significantly higher than 77.3% for teams who are in at the quarter pole to be there in April.  The 3-point game is primarily the cause of that.

According to the study:

link
The extra point ? introduced for overtime losses in the 1999-2000 season ? changed very little statistically. In the five seasons before the extra point was introduced, 63 of 80 playoff teams (78.8 per cent) were in a playoff spot. In the five years afterwards, 61 of 80 (76.3 per cent) were in the same spot.

New rules introduced after the lockout ? including the introduction of the shootout ? also changed little. In the five years since the lockout, 62 of 80 of playoff teams (77.5 per cent) were in a playoff spot by the fourth Thursday of November.

1.3% difference doesn't seem statistically significant to me to conclude much. But we're not looking at a lot of seasons either. I'm not sure there's enough data to conclude one way or the other.

It could go either way. It might keep the pack of bubble teams larger and tighter together allowing one a better chance to get in. Or it might make it tougher for a bubble team to pass a team. Maybe both those factors are going on and offset some. I'm not sure.

Yeah, I mean I certainly didn't post it to say "Hey we're guaranteed in!", just that it has typically been a good sign to be in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving than not to be in one.

 

[L K]

They went back to 1993 in that study, but I believe post-lockout the stats are significantly higher than 77.3% for teams who are in at the quarter pole to be there in April.  The 3-point game is primarily the cause of that.

According to the study:

link
The extra point ? introduced for overtime losses in the 1999-2000 season ? changed very little statistically. In the five seasons before the extra point was introduced, 63 of 80 playoff teams (78.8 per cent) were in a playoff spot. In the five years afterwards, 61 of 80 (76.3 per cent) were in the same spot.

New rules introduced after the lockout ? including the introduction of the shootout ? also changed little. In the five years since the lockout, 62 of 80 of playoff teams (77.5 per cent) were in a playoff spot by the fourth Thursday of November.

1.3% difference doesn't seem statistically significant to me to conclude much. But we're not looking at a lot of seasons either. I'm not sure there's enough data to conclude one way or the other.

It could go either way. It might keep the pack of bubble teams larger and tighter together allowing one a better chance to get in. Or it might make it tougher for a bubble team to pass a team. Maybe both those factors are going on and offset some. I'm not sure.

Yeah, I mean I certainly didn't post it to say "Hey we're guaranteed in!", just that it has typically been a good sign to be in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving than not to be in one.

The important thing now is making sure the Leafs don't go on a prolonged slump to be one of those 23% of teams.  The East is dangerously tight right now and a three game losing streak can mean the difference between 1st and last.

 

[Zee]

We're not going on a 3 game losing streak -- no negative thoughts!

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

i agree it's tight..but in the past lot of years it's not been 3 game losing streaks that have done the leafs in...it's been 10 game ones...3 games is recoverable ..let's just stay away from the crazy let downs that have plagued the last 4 years or so

 

[Bender]

i agree it's tight..but in the past lot of years it's not been 3 game losing streaks that have done the leafs in...it's been 10 game ones...3 games is recoverable ..let's just stay away from the crazy let downs that have plagued the last 4 years or so

link

Even one of the better Leafs teams we've seen had a six game winless streak. This kind of thing happens to all but the most dominant teams, and we aren't that just yet.

 

[Fanatic]

The Leafs are 14-8-2 and have 30 points in 24 games.

Last year on Dec 2nd they were 8-12-4 and had 20 points in 24 games. Nice 10 point swing.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs are 14-8-2 and have 30 points in 24 games.

Last year on Dec 2nd they were 8-12-4 and had 20 points in 24 games. Nice 10 point swing.

I'm hoping we still have at least a 10 point swing after 82 games, that would mean 95 points and most likely a playoff spot.

 

[nutman]

The Leafs are 14-8-2 and have 30 points in 24 games.

Last year on Dec 2nd they were 8-12-4 and had 20 points in 24 games. Nice 10 point swing.

I'm hoping we still have at least a 10 point swing after 82 games, that would mean 95 points and most likely a playoff spot.

We will be in the top six. after the 82 game mark, not just likely to make the playoffs.

 

[Crucialness Key]

The Leafs are 14-8-2 and have 30 points in 24 games.

Last year on Dec 2nd they were 8-12-4 and had 20 points in 24 games. Nice 10 point swing.

I also like how they just moved the same 4 digits around in order to come up with those 10 more points.  ;D

 

[Zee]

The Leafs are 14-8-2 and have 30 points in 24 games.

Last year on Dec 2nd they were 8-12-4 and had 20 points in 24 games. Nice 10 point swing.

I'm hoping we still have at least a 10 point swing after 82 games, that would mean 95 points and most likely a playoff spot.

We will be in the top six. after the 82 game mark, not just likely to make the playoffs.

I've learned to set my expectations low.  I'll be happy with 8th.

 

[maplesyrup]

I've learned to set my expectations low.  I'll be happy with 8th.

vs. Pittsburgh maybe. Yeah, that'll be a riot.

 

[Zee]

I've learned to set my expectations low.  I'll be happy with 8th.

vs. Pittsburgh maybe. Yeah, that'll be a riot.

I haven't seen a Leafs playoff game since before I had kids.  I'll take anything at this point.

 

[maplesyrup]

I've learned to set my expectations low.  I'll be happy with 8th.

vs. Pittsburgh maybe. Yeah, that'll be a riot.

I haven't seen a Leafs playoff game since before I had kids.  I'll take anything at this point.

Oh, me too. Don't get me wrong.

 

[Corn Flake]

I took a look at the Eastern Conference standings and compared what they were at Oct 31 vs. what they are today.  As close as things are in the standings, only one (ONE!) team has moved into the playoffs and one team moved out.  Boston went from the bottom of the heap to 4th, knocking New Jersey out... although NJ is tied with Washington in points and wins.

I think its pretty amazing that after an entire month, with all the ups and downs for so many teams in the East that only one team has pushed its way into the playoff mix in that time.

Goes to show how difficult it is to get back into the top 8 once you fall out, even in November.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

When I compare this team to the teams between 2005-2010, this team has serious speed.  The 2nd and 3rd lines have been contributing on the scoring sheet while Connolly and Bozak are also contributing, taking the pressure off Kessel.  Finally, the Leafs are playing under a system that is making them successful.  They are more agressive towards opposing puck carriers and are getting better defensive coverage.  The Monster is playing like how I originally thought he would be playing, and the team is playing as if they are not worrying about the goalie making the save or not.  Overall, this is how I envisioned the team playing when the season started, but they have to start winning some games against Philly, Boston and Buffalo - the teams that have caused them historical problems.   

 

[nutman]

When I compare this team to the teams between 2005-2010, this team has serious speed.  The 2nd and 3rd lines have been contributing on the scoring sheet while Connolly and Bozak are also contributing, taking the pressure off Kessel.  Finally, the Leafs are playing under a system that is making them successful.  They are more agressive towards opposing puck carriers and are getting better defensive coverage.  The Monster is playing like how I originally thought he would be playing, and the team is playing as if they are not worrying about the goalie making the save or not.  Overall, this is how I envisioned the team playing when the season started, but they have to start winning some games against Philly, Boston and Buffalo - the teams that have caused them historical problems. 

I think we got past the Buf hump. Phily we can beat, its Boston that we need to beat.

 

[cw]

http://www.lfpress.com/sports/hockey/2011/12/07/19093301.html
TIGHT STANDINGS

(It?s official, the tightest Eastern Conference race at this time of year since the lockout. Before Wednesday?s games, Toronto was grouped with six clubs split by six points. A look back at how close the East has become at the top.)

Dec 5, 2005

10 teams separated by 14 points (2nd through 9th by 11)

Dec. 6, 2006

12 teams separated by 16 points (2nd through 12th by 10)

Dec. 6, 2007

11 teams separted by nine points (2nd through 11th by five)

Dec, 5, 2008

11 teams separated by 13 points, (3rd through 10th by nine)

Dec. 7, 2009

11 teams separated by 15 points (4th through 10th by six)

Dec. 6, 2010

11 teams separated by 15 points (1st through 7th by seven)

Dec. 7 2011

12 teams separated by nine points (2nd through 10 by seven)

 

[cw]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Rk Team              win%  Playoff Chances
  6 TORONTO        0.583  66.5  62.7
  7 NEW JERSEY    0.550  41.7  29.6
  8 BUFFALO          0.550  44.9  47.7
  9 WASHINGTON  0.534  46.2  46.4
10 WINNIPEG        0.533  42.1  42.4
11 MONTREAL        0.532  51.9  57.4
12 OTTAWA          0.516  32.3  22.6 
13 TAMPA BAY      0.433    9.9  5.6
14 NY ISLANDERS  0.429    4.9  2.5

I don't endorse the accuracy of those %s but roughly, they're probably not far off right now.

Obviously, a win streak would go a long way to firm up their chances and a losing streak ...

I remain pleased to see them where they are.

 

[Zee]

Obviously, a win streak would go a long way to firm up their chances and a losing streak ...

SHUT YOUR MOUTH!