Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[cw]

Carter, Richards & Leino were three of their top five scorers. Additional scoring ice time that will to van Riemsdyk with their departure probably comes close to making up for one of them in the top 6 if a 3rd liner can pick up van Riemsdyk's 3rd line scoring slack (not sure that will happen). Jagr should help replace one (maybe not entirely) as well depending on how much age has effected his game. Expecting Carter, Richards & Leino to get replaced offensively without losing much also depends significantly on whether Brayden Schenn is ready to make a run for the Calder as a NHL 3rd line scoring center. I really like him as a prospect so that's not entirely silly talk but it's still a tall order I wouldn't bet on.

I'm guessing that the additions of Simmonds,  Voracek & Talbot will contribute some scoring and two way play but it gets murky with so much roster change from last season how much.

My guess is that they'll improve defensively with Bryzgalov and probably slip a little offensively with the loss of Carter/Richards. And at the end of the season, they'll be pretty close to where they were last year in the standings - near the top.

EDIT: the big condition on this is as I said previously above: health. For example, if Pronger recovers from his surgeries to be the decent dman he's been, all is good. If he isn't in the mix, they could have issues.

 

[cw]

I'm also going to go on record and say that the Sabres will be the real disappointment this season. Sure, they added some recognizable names, but, they're still going to live and die my Miller. I mean, let's really look at what they've done - they downgraded Connolly to Leino, lost Niedermayer and Grier replacing them with Kotalik, and upgraded their defence from Butler and Montador to Ehrhoff and Regehr. On top of that, with their cap situation, they're risking losing Sekera or Gragnani. I think people are focusing too much on the names they added without really looking at what those moves meant to how the team is built. I'm not convinced they're a markedly better team after this offseason and I think they're going to struggle against the raised expectations of their fans, management and ownership. They barely snuck into the playoffs last season - I can very easily see them missing out this season.

I feel differently.

1. I'm not clear how much of a downgrade Leino is with those Buffalo forwards and their system. Overpaid? No question.

                    Pts      Faceoff win%  Ice Time (on PP)      +/-
Connolly        42        45.9            1150 (192)            -10 (worst of forwards)
Leino            53          57.4            1300 (186)            14 (t-5th)

Stats aren't everything but the concept of the Sabres using Leino at center with the type of forwards and system they have probably isn't a bad one given his puck distribution skills and apparent ability to win draws. He probably isn't as good as Connolly in his prime but I'm not convinced Connolly is in his prime now. The edge Connolly maybe has left now is his defensively ability on the PK but Leino won't be playing there.

I think Leino has a shot at delivering more than Connolly did offensively. He's certainly more likely to be healthy. For me, the jury is kind out on this one and I'm certainly not convinced it's a giant loss in talent. Crazy contract? No debate there.

2. "lost Niedermayer and Grier replacing them with Kotalik"

I wouldn't make that sort of equivalence. Kotalik may well find himself waived for cap space.

Niedermayer was pretty close to done as he finds himself in Europe next season. Grier? I'd wait and see what happens there. But I would concede that what they're doing for checking wing talent is a question mark. If Leino does take the #2 center spot, then Gaustad is the third line checking center and maybe Hecht takes up more of a defensive role - which he's capable of.

3. "On top of that, with their cap situation, they're risking losing Sekera or Gragnani"

Shaone Morrisonn is all but certain to be waived or moved. If he isn't enough, they can also look at Kotalik. Between the two of them, that's a little over $5 mil which opens up ample cap space without real net talent loss - in fact, they can probably add a decent player.

4. Enroth will replace Lalime as full time backup and I think will be a significant upgrade there that will allow Miller more rest. Enroth's better than his stats in my opinion.

And theSabres only had Roy (their top ppg player) for 35 games last season.

5. "They barely snuck into the playoffs last season"

That's true but next to the Devils, they may have been the second best team in hockey from January on to fight their way into the playoffs.

They were the 9th best offence and 18th best defence last year. They added Boyes at the deadline. And they've added key dmen Regehr, Ehrhoff & effectively Enroth since while losing Lalime, Montador & Butler - so on paper, there's no doubt in my mind that they've improved their talent in their weakest area. Meanwhile, their young kids like Weber, Sekera & Gragnani (ppg in the playoffs) were coming on by the end of the season.

If they stay healthy, I'd be shocked if they came close to missing the playoffs. Once again, they'll be a tough opponent for the Leafs.

 

[Omallley]

I'm also going to go on record and say that the Sabres will be the real disappointment this season. Sure, they added some recognizable names, but, they're still going to live and die my Miller. I mean, let's really look at what they've done - they downgraded Connolly to Leino, lost Niedermayer and Grier replacing them with Kotalik, and upgraded their defence from Butler and Montador to Ehrhoff and Regehr. On top of that, with their cap situation, they're risking losing Sekera or Gragnani. I think people are focusing too much on the names they added without really looking at what those moves meant to how the team is built. I'm not convinced they're a markedly better team after this offseason and I think they're going to struggle against the raised expectations of their fans, management and ownership. They barely snuck into the playoffs last season - I can very easily see them missing out this season.

I agree with a lot of this. I think there will be some interesting story lines. With the amount of money spent this offseason (and the vast majority of it being spent by teams in the east) I think that you are going to see some very disappointing teams based when you compare the expectations after the money they've spent.

Granted, this is usually the case, but I feel like there's more opportunity for it to happen to more teams this year...

 

[cw]

I'm also going to go on record and say that the Sabres will be the real disappointment this season. Sure, they added some recognizable names, but, they're still going to live and die my Miller. I mean, let's really look at what they've done - they downgraded Connolly to Leino, lost Niedermayer and Grier replacing them with Kotalik, and upgraded their defence from Butler and Montador to Ehrhoff and Regehr. On top of that, with their cap situation, they're risking losing Sekera or Gragnani. I think people are focusing too much on the names they added without really looking at what those moves meant to how the team is built. I'm not convinced they're a markedly better team after this offseason and I think they're going to struggle against the raised expectations of their fans, management and ownership. They barely snuck into the playoffs last season - I can very easily see them missing out this season.

I agree with a lot of this. I think there will be some interesting story lines. With the amount of money spent this offseason (and the vast majority of it being spent by teams in the east) I think that you are going to see some very disappointing teams based when you compare the expectations after the money they've spent.

Granted, this is usually the case, but I feel like there's more opportunity for it to happen to more teams this year...

For one, all these teams that spent in the East will be pounding each other down a little in the standings.

An injury to any top starter, stud dman or very key forward could unravel a team's hopes.

And when I think of "some very disappointing teams based when you compare the expectations after the money they've spent", that hits kinda close to home over the last few seasons in Toronto. I thought they all underachieved some. But there's little doubt some of these roster concepts for the contenders won't gel as well as hoped.

And hey, maybe the Leafs are overdue for a season where they overachieve!! I'm certainly hoping for that.

 

[Bender]

I'm also going to go on record and say that the Sabres will be the real disappointment this season. Sure, they added some recognizable names, but, they're still going to live and die my Miller. I mean, let's really look at what they've done - they downgraded Connolly to Leino, lost Niedermayer and Grier replacing them with Kotalik, and upgraded their defence from Butler and Montador to Ehrhoff and Regehr. On top of that, with their cap situation, they're risking losing Sekera or Gragnani. I think people are focusing too much on the names they added without really looking at what those moves meant to how the team is built. I'm not convinced they're a markedly better team after this offseason and I think they're going to struggle against the raised expectations of their fans, management and ownership. They barely snuck into the playoffs last season - I can very easily see them missing out this season.

I agree with a lot of this. I think there will be some interesting story lines. With the amount of money spent this offseason (and the vast majority of it being spent by teams in the east) I think that you are going to see some very disappointing teams based when you compare the expectations after the money they've spent.

Granted, this is usually the case, but I feel like there's more opportunity for it to happen to more teams this year...

For one, all these teams that spent in the East will be pounding each other down a little in the standings.

An injury to any top starter, stud dman or very key forward could unravel a team's hopes.

And when I think of "some very disappointing teams based when you compare the expectations after the money they've spent", that hits kinda close to home over the last few seasons in Toronto. I thought they all underachieved some. But there's little doubt some of these roster concepts for the contenders won't gel as well as hoped.

And hey, maybe the Leafs are overdue for a season where they overachieve!! I'm certainly hoping for that.

I know we can't hang all our hopes on Reimer, but I felt he was different, even after the first few games when watching him play last year. I don't know how to put my finger on it, but for the majority of games I actually had confidence in his goaltending, which I felt was not really conscious decision - I sensed it I guess you could say.  I still remember a number of breakaway chances mid year against Minnesota in which Reimer stoned 3 out of four or something to that effect, and was completely amazed. When I saw Gus you could see flashes of brilliance but also flashes of a very nervous goaltender.

I feel like this year, above all, this team will live and die by their goaltender - especially this year due to heightened expectations due to his stellar play in the latter half of last year. If Reimer can come away like he did then we're in the playoffs, and I think this can be true even if we have an injury to a couple of players like Bozak or Lupul. But if we get hit with an injury to Connolly and Armstrong or Phaneuf, I think we're toast. Reimer's not a miracle worker, unfortunately, and may even fall to the sophomore slump. I sure hope he doesn't.

 

[moon111]

I think the Leafs need to learn how to do just enough to win.  Consistency. 

Think the Leafs are a better playoff team then a regular season team.

 

[cw]

I feel like this year, above all, this team will live and die by their goaltender - especially this year due to heightened expectations due to his stellar play in the latter half of last year. If Reimer can come away like he did then we're in the playoffs, and I think this can be true even if we have an injury to a couple of players like Bozak or Lupul. But if we get hit with an injury to Connolly and Armstrong or Phaneuf, I think we're toast. Reimer's not a miracle worker, unfortunately, and may even fall to the sophomore slump. I sure hope he doesn't.

I've felt they'd live and die by their goaltending the last few years. This year I feel a little differently. It's vital that they get good goaltending but I think we have a better basis for optimism than in years past and that maybe not as much is riding on the goaltending as in recent years past.

I happen to think Scrivens has possibilities. I haven't given up on Gustavsson. Rynnas is also a potential talent. Even if Reimer falters some, it's not beyond the realm of possibility one of those other guys helps out. Reimer may well provide them with the best starting goaltending since the lockout but they have the depth that getting the best backup goaltending they've had in some time is probably not an unreasonable hope. This season will go a long way to sorting out their future in goal. I think the odds favor there will be an improvement over recent seasons with that depth of young developing talent.

It's arguably the best top 9 since Sundin. The top six on paper are probably below NHL average but they're better than we've had in a while - legitimately approaching NHL average. Their biggest vulnerability is health (Lupul & Connolly). The top 8 are probably set to start the season in the lineup and if Kadri doesn't work out (and I think he's in far more jeopardy than the media has been talking about), they have a bunch of prospects knocking at the door (ie Frattin or Caputi, etc) to fill that role. I also like that the third line can help with scoring from the outset of the season - they'll probably need it but thank god they're not going top 6/bottom 6 as extremely as in the past. I anticipate they'll shore up the 4th line talent between now and the start of the season.

My biggest concern is with the defence right now. Individually, I see a bunch of young talent. I'm not sure how it all fits together and lack some confidence in Wilson to optimize them quickly to come close to maximizing their potential for this year. They could be above average or below average. I'm finding that group the toughest to project how they will do.

 

[princedpw]

I don't think the Flyers are as much of a lock as most here do.  They made some significant changes, losing 2 first line players.  Plus, Bryz was just paid big-time.  We've seen time and time again a guy get paid, then take a year off.

I think they could quite easily bomb the season.  I do think they'll be in the dance (or at least in a fight for it), but not as a lock.

I agree that the Flyers are a lot less of a lock than they once were.  With so many player changes, I can easily see them getting off to a poor start as guys are trying to find chemistry with one another -- 3 of their top 5 scorers gone.  Remember that two years ago they barely squeaked in to the playoffs.  Also, I think they are extremely vulnerable to a Pronger injury.  When that guy is out with an injury or playing hurt, they are simply not the same team and he's been out with injury a lot.  Also, Timonen is now 36 and you can see his point totals have been on a steady decline.  Last year it was down to 37 though he played in all 82 games.  Briere's numbers are fantastic but I've heard that a lot of that comes from playing on a sheltered "3rd" line that tears up the opposition's lesser players as the better ones faced off against Richards and Carter.  He doesn't have that protection, lost Leino as a linemate, and is turning 34 in October.  Will we see him drop back to 50 points, like he did two years ago when the Flyers barely made the playoffs?

 

[nutman]

Good to see the usual group have the leafs as a crap shoot to make the playoffs.
-flyers will drop, too many changes.not a top five team anymore.
-wash, i feel there on there way down.
- pitt, depends on Crosby. but i see them in the 5-8 slot.
-tampa, they should be there in the mix for a top five spot.
-Boston top five
-habs will fight for a spot.
-leafs 5-8, but if Reimer is for real, we may be top five.
- NyR., i dont like there d, so i say 8-5 area.
buf and NJ. they go where there Goalies take them.

i see a very strong east. but unlike some of you guys and gals, i see the leafs right in the mix. i see them in the top 8 more then out all season.

 

[princedpw]

I've been trying to think of some (less obvious) numbers that, if achieved, will point to the leafs making the playoffs.  Here are some ideas:

-- Kessel +5 or better:  Last year, the Leafs "top line" of X-Bozak-Kessel was crushed by the opposition they faced 5-on-5 with Bozak at -29, Kessel at -20, and Lupul at an unimpressive -7 in only 28 games, which projects out to approximately -20 over 82 games.  This line has got to be more competitive 5-on-5.  A good sign is that Kessel was -19 pre-allstar and only -1 post allstar.  He was +1 in 19 games in March and April.  If he and Connolly click and Connolly is an improvement defensively over Bozak, we can hope for a substantial swing in the numbers.  I notice that post allstar, Bozak just kept getting worse, going -15 over the same span that Kessel was only -1.  I wouldn't be surprised Bozak just couldn't handle his 20 minutes/game physically and it completely caught up with him by the end of the season.  Hopefully next year he'll give us higher productivity per minute in just 13-15 min/game.

-- Leafs Goaltenders:  .913 save percentage or better:  Last year, a .913 team save percentage tied for 12th in the league; .912 tied for 14th.  The leafs were 20th at .904 (their best showing since the lockout?) due to horrid non-Reimer goaltending.  12 of the top 15 teams in save percentage made the playoffs.  Only Florida, Minnesota and Carolina did not.  If I'm eye-balling it right, lifting team save percentage by 1% will knock 23 goals off of Toronto's GAA.  If we can find 20 additional goals in offense, due to better play at center and hopefully a few more goals from the defense, we'll bump our goal differential into the positive territory required to give the team a decent shot at the playoffs.

-- Total Games by Connolly, Lombardi, Grabovski: 200+:  This one is kind of obvious.  If Lombardi recovers, he Bozak and Armstrong will, I hope, make a tremendously valuable line that can match up against the opposing team's top line, freeing Kessel's line to attack the scrubs.  Obviously, to make that work, we also need Connolly and Grabbo playing.  If two of the three guys don't play much, we are back to zero center depth and a pathetic top and bottom six next year that will see us likely miss the playoffs again by a wide margin.

...  I'm sure there are a bunch of other ways to look at the situation.  I really have no idea what soever what is going to happen on our top line. I'm a little worried that the Connolly/Kessel combination is a little too small and meek.  Mike Richards would have been the dream guy to put with Kessel I think: he perfectly complements his weakenesses.

thoughts?

 

[Kin]

The way I see it, there are probably 4-5 teams who are, assuming everyone's health holds up, definitely going to be better than the Leafs next year. For me that's Washington, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and New York. Then I think there are two or three teams that I think are probably going to be better than the Leafs next year with that being Tampa, Buffalo and New Jersey.

Then I think there's a group of teams the Leafs figure to be roughly neck and neck with. For me that's Winnipeg, Montreal, Carolina. Then I think there's the three teams the Leafs will probably be better than in Florida, NYI and Ottawa.

So making a call right now I'd guess...9-12 seems likely but I wouldn't be shocked by 7-13.

 

[Bender]

The way I see it, there are probably 4-5 teams who are, assuming everyone's health holds up, definitely going to be better than the Leafs next year. For me that's Washington, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and New York. Then I think there are two or three teams that I think are probably going to be better than the Leafs next year with that being Tampa, Buffalo and New Jersey.

Then I think there's a group of teams the Leafs figure to be roughly neck and neck with. For me that's Winnipeg, Montreal, Carolina. Then I think there's the three teams the Leafs will probably be better than in Florida, NYI and Ottawa.

So making a call right now I'd guess...9-12 seems likely but I wouldn't be shocked by 7-13.

I think this is going to be a tough year to predict outside of Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh (assuming Crosby is ok) duking it out for top spot in the east.

New York is a strange animal, and I can't make a call one way or another on them. They will likely finish above 8th, but I wouldn't be surprised by a 6-7 finish.

New Jersey is dependant on an aging Brodeur and lost their catalyst for the resurgence last year in their coach.

Philly - again, huge question marks. Giroux and Bryz are locks to play well I think, but outside of that there's a lot of question marks. Briere, Pronger, Timonen are all playing on the back 9, and the loss of arguably their two best players in order to shore up the future could really hurt them for the next few years.

Tampa is a roller coaster of a team, and, like NJ, will rely on an aging goaltender to get them by. They could get up to 5th but also drop to 7th I think. *Edit: I think Tampa could take 4th solely on how well St. Louis and Stamkos play together.

Buffalo will live and die by Miller even moreso than NJ on Brodeur and Tampa on Roloson. Buffalo could place 7th or they could place as low as 11th imo, even with Leino and Ehrhoff.

Carolina is a team that I can't really get a handle on either. I don't know if they really have the firepower up front outside of Staal to make the playoffs.

Montreal I think will squeak in. I believe Carey Price and their waterbugging offense will still be the perennial dark horse for a few more years. 6-10th

Ottawa, Islanders and Panthers are fighting for the bottom of the basement.

Winnipeg is on the cusp of being a really good team, but are not far along enough in their development. They will finish between 9-11th.


So where does that leave the Leafs? Also with a whole lot of question marks. Kessel is a lock for 55pts this year. It will be interesting to see the how the whole top line meshes. Lupul may be a great fit on the top line, but he may also be another Versteeg - not quite a first liner and not a second liner due to the inherent chemistry of Grabs, Kuli and Mac.

I think the second line will have less success this year than last but also because I think their role will be reduced now that we have Connolly on the first line (although that could easily change). I'd be happy to see Kooly and Mac stay close to their point totals while seeing Grabbo increase.

Assuming Colby doesn't have as many freak accidents last year I think we'll have an excellent third line. Bozak will be sheltered a little bit and it'll allow Kadri or Frattin to break in. One of Kadri or Frattin, I believe, will play well in the role.

Now that leaves the fourth line. It looks like Brown - X - Dupuis right now. I think Zigomanis in the middle might not be too bad. It could also shelter Colborne if he's ready for the opportunity. I'd rather have a defensively strong, grinding down line, though, and Colborne may not fit.

Will goaltending remain strong under Reimer? I think it will. I think even half decent goaltending will give us a chance (.910 or more). But again, huge question mark.

Suffice it to say, I think I would conclude that Toronto, Montreal, New York, Philedelphia, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, New Jersey and Winnipeg will all be fighting for 4-8 spots. I think we'll see a reduction in points from Philly, Tampa and Montreal. We'll see an increase by the Leafs, Rangers and Devils. The others will hover or I can't make a prediction either way. But the fact that there are huge question marks all over the Eastern Conference outside the top 3 will, I think, make it a very turbulent year.

 

[AvroArrow]

Boston = stanley cup hangover? 

 

[bustaheims]

Boston = stanley cup hangover? 

Maybe. Boston's success is linked to which Tim Thomas shows up - the 08/09 & 10/11 Thomas who was the best goalie in the world or the 07/08 & 09/10 Thomas who was just pretty good - and, if the lesser Thomas shows up, whether or not Rask can handle being shunted back and forth between starter and back up.

I'm not sure the rest of the team is deep enough to for Thomas to just be pretty good - if that's the Thomas that shows up, they fall back into the pack fighting for the bottom few spots.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

EDIT: the big condition on this is as I said previously above: health. For example, if Pronger recovers from his surgeries to be the decent dman he's been, all is good. If he isn't in the mix, they could have issues.

It sounds like his rehab isn't going as well as he had hoped:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=371660

I'd agree that their entire season could depend on Pronger's health. He's a guy who could held put all these new pieces together. Without him, it could fall apart.

 

[Kin]

Boston = stanley cup hangover? 

It was a really big bottle of champagne.

 

[Joe S.]

Boston = stanley cup hangover? 

It was a really big bottle of champagne.

You're right.

 

[Bender]

Boston = stanley cup hangover? 

It was a really big bottle of champagne.

You're right.

That woman has a pair of big champagne bottles.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Except for Johnny Boychuk and his Amstel Light.

 

[cw]

EDIT: the big condition on this is as I said previously above: health. For example, if Pronger recovers from his surgeries to be the decent dman he's been, all is good. If he isn't in the mix, they could have issues.

It sounds like his rehab isn't going as well as he had hoped:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=371660

I'd agree that their entire season could depend on Pronger's health. He's a guy who could held put all these new pieces together. Without him, it could fall apart.

I've read in a recent Philly article there were six surgeries since last summer (I'm now not sure that's accurate). I know of knee, foot, hand and back surgeries since last summer. I also know that was his third knee operation (one previous was ACL reconstruction) and he's also had wrist surgery and a broken foot. As most know, he's not effective as a finesse player - he has to play physically and has plenty of wear and tear on his body from playing that way over his lengthy career.

I also read before today and it was inferred in his interview of today that he will not be ready to start the season with his back problem/recovery. He isn't working out right now beyond very light stuff. Take Carter, Richards & Pronger out of any lineup and I don't care what team it is, they're hard players to replace and not skip a beat - particularly Pronger.