Marlies Talk 15/16 - Is Sheldon worth Keefe'n around?

[L K]

Sparks let in some pretty bad goals in a 6-5 shootout loss.  Brown had another goal and an assist for 6 points in his 4 games back.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The Marlies made sure to end their losing streak at 1 last night, beating Manitoba 6-2. Leivo and Nylander both had 2 assists, Arcobello had 2 goals, Kapanen scored in his return to the line-up after missing a few games with an injury.

This is what their forward lines looked like:

Leivo Arcobello Bailey
Kapanen Nylander Brown
Leipsic Findlay Frattin
Soshnikov Gauthier Hyman

Brennan is 1st in the AHL in scoring, Arcobello 3rd, Nylander 9th, and Leivo 14th.

 

[Bullfrog]

Kapanen-Nylander-Brown is a great looking line!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kapanen-Nylander-Brown is a great looking line!

Yup. Nylander seems to be legitimately good pals with both of them too. That stuff's always a nice bonus.

 

[herman]

Kapanen-Nylander-Brown is a great looking line!

Yup. Nylander seems to be legitimately good pals with both of them too. That stuff's always a nice bonus.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/big-read-baby-faces-of-the-maple-leafs-franchise/

Only Nylander gets recognized on the streets?likely a combined result of his high profile as the Leafs? first-round pick in 2014 and his well-maintained blond coif and boy-band appeal. ?They ask for a picture and say, ?Oh, you?re going to play for the Leafs,?? Nylander says with a sly grin, hints of his Swedish roots in his voice. ?I?m the guy they get to take the picture,? Kapanen says, laughing.

Nylander's line next year sounds like it'll wreak some havoc on opposing bottom-sixes. As Nylander moves up the lineup, we can backfill our bottom six with speed/skill in Kapanen, Brown, Soshnikov, Morin, Leipsic, maybe Bailey.

In a couple of years, we have potential Nylander line combos of:
Timashov - W. Nylander - Marner  or
Timashov - W. Nylander - A. Nylander/Laine/Puljujarvi    or
Tkatchuk - W. Nylander - Marner/Kapanen/Brown

 

[Highlander]

I really like Laine at the JWC.  He looks great!

 

[mr grieves]

Nylander's line next year sounds like it'll wreak some havoc on opposing bottom-sixes. As Nylander moves up the lineup, we can backfill our bottom six with speed/skill in Kapanen, Brown, Soshnikov, Morin, Leipsic, maybe Bailey.

In a couple of years, we have potential Nylander line combos of:
Timashov - W. Nylander - Marner  or
Timashov - W. Nylander - A. Nylander/Laine/Puljujarvi    or
Tkatchuk - W. Nylander - Marner/Kapanen/Brown

Because I'm sort of losing track of how the prospects would be ranked, a question:

We'd likely consider Nylander, Marner, and this year's top-5 pick as 'locks' for the top six (or as close as one can get to that, since things can happen, etc.).

The re-building/development process involves not only acquiring talent at the top of the draft but also hitting on some of a largish pool of potential candidates found later rounds, and that pool now seems to include Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Timashov, Johnson, Leivo, and some I'm likely forgetting. I don't have any decent understanding of how minor league success translates into NHL production. So who on that list are showing that they have legitimate top-6 potential? That is, which ones are we more or less confident might mature into reliable contributors on a second line and/or players who can ride along with Nylander, Marner, etc.?

 

[bustaheims]

Marlies are getting some reinforcements! Clune sent back down.

 

[Bullfrog]

Because I'm sort of losing track of how the prospects would be ranked, a question:

We'd likely consider Nylander, Marner, and this year's top-5 pick as 'locks' for the top six (or as close as one can get to that, since things can happen, etc.).

The re-building/development process involves not only acquiring talent at the top of the draft but also hitting on some of a largish pool of potential candidates found later rounds, and that pool now seems to include Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Timashov, Johnson, Leivo, and some I'm likely forgetting. I don't have any decent understanding of how minor league success translates into NHL production. So who on that list are showing that they have legitimate top-6 potential? That is, which ones are we more or less confident might mature into reliable contributors on a second line and/or players who can ride along with Nylander, Marner, etc.?

Just as a quick note: Kapanen was a 1st round draft pick by Pittsburgh.

 

[Kin]

I don't have any decent understanding of how minor league success translates into NHL production. So who on that list are showing that they have legitimate top-6 potential? That is, which ones are we more or less confident might mature into reliable contributors on a second line and/or players who can ride along with Nylander, Marner, etc.?

I don't think there's any real tried and true way of really knowing how minor league success will translate to the NHL level and if you look at the post-draft but pre-nhl  careers of some of the guys the Blackhawks drafted and are typically cited as proof of their ability to add depth/find gems there's really no pattern that sticks out.

Brandon Saad, for instance, had a bit post-draft year in junior then got 31 games in the AHL where he produced at a good, but not great rate(20 points) and then he was essentially a top 6 forward from that point on. Dustin Byfuglien had two post-draft years in Junior, neither year being super-productive then bounced around between the Hawks and the AHL for a few seasons before establishing himself. Dave Bolland also had two post-draft junior years(including a 130 point season) then had a very good AHL year and then a year he split between the AHL and the Hawks. Marcus Kruger spent two full years in Sweden, Troy Brouwer had two super productive Junior years and two great AHL years...they took all sorts of paths.

So there are reasons to be optimistic about a bunch of guys. Leipsic, Gauthier, Timashov, Brown...but then again a bunch of the guys the Blackhawks drafted who never turned into much did a lot of the same things as the guys who did succeed.

 

[herman]

Nylander's line next year sounds like it'll wreak some havoc on opposing bottom-sixes. As Nylander moves up the lineup, we can backfill our bottom six with speed/skill in Kapanen, Brown, Soshnikov, Morin, Leipsic, maybe Bailey.

Because I'm sort of losing track of how the prospects would be ranked, a question:

We'd likely consider Nylander, Marner, and this year's top-5 pick as 'locks' for the top six (or as close as one can get to that, since things can happen, etc.).

The re-building/development process involves not only acquiring talent at the top of the draft but also hitting on some of a largish pool of potential candidates found later rounds, and that pool now seems to include Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Timashov, Johnson, Leivo, and some I'm likely forgetting. I don't have any decent understanding of how minor league success translates into NHL production. So who on that list are showing that they have legitimate top-6 potential? That is, which ones are we more or less confident might mature into reliable contributors on a second line and/or players who can ride along with Nylander, Marner, etc.?

Just based on the way Babcock likes to set up his lines, each one (top to bottom) will have a mucking puck retriever (see Komarov and Abdelkader). So a couple of players who doesn't necessarily generate a ton of points themselves will see top-6 minutes. Of our non 1st-rounders currently in the fold , I think Timashov and Leipsic have the best chances of fulfilling that role since they have the wheels to match their tenacity.

Kapanen looks to be a scoring 2nd/3rd liner -- mad skills, but can't seem to do it as consistently as Nylander/Marner; Leivo is ahead in the development curve but I think his talent ceiling is just south of Kapanen's. Soshnikov's more of a grinder with good hands. Brown and A. Johnson have world class releases, but at the NHL level, I'm not sure how their speed holds up. Same with Bailey (who I doubt will make it out of the AHL). Gauthier is our shutdown centre of the future provided his skating continues to improve.

 

[Kin]

Just because you seem to have a better handle on it than I do herman, what about Hyman? He's younger than bailey, seems to be producing at a better rate...it seems weird that we don't hear more chatter about him coming up.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Just based on the way Babcock likes to set up his lines, each one (top to bottom) will have a mucking puck retriever (see Komarov and Abdelkader). So a couple of players who doesn't necessarily generate a ton of points themselves will see top-6 minutes. Of our non 1st-rounders currently in the fold , I think Timashov and Leipsic have the best chances of fulfilling that role since they have the wheels to match their tenacity.

Kapanen looks to be a scoring 2nd/3rd liner -- mad skills, but can't seem to do it as consistently as Nylander/Marner; Leivo is ahead in the development curve but I think his talent ceiling is just south of Kapanen's. Soshnikov's more of a grinder with good hands. Brown and A. Johnson have world class releases, but at the NHL level, I'm not sure how their speed holds up. Same with Bailey (who I doubt will make it out of the AHL). Gauthier is our shutdown centre of the future provided his skating continues to improve.

We see very different things from Timashov I think, he'll need a trigger man and a puck retrieval guy to help him out.

Kapanen strikes me as a guy who just needs to take one more step in terms of his physical development and then you'll start to see him dominate more often, he has a full toolbox, just needs to be a little faster and stronger in my opinion.

Soshnikov is a harder one to peg because you look at him in a bottom six role and think wow this guy is too skilled to be playing this role and then you look at him in a top six role and he looks like he wants to be playing the game with more jam. I think he could go either way, probably tops out as a more skilled less physical version of Komarov who can be the third guy on the first or second line and be an excellent PK option. At the very least I suspect he will be a guy who makes your third line above average if that's where he lands. He and Leipsic are pretty similar in that regard, Soshnikov looks like he could be a better team guy, Leipsic plays a similar game, but it a bit more of a scorer.

My worry with Brown is also his skating, the rest of his game is absolutely NHL level, he is so smart so he might even be able to make it without improved wheels, very underrated defensively.

Bailey and Hyman at times look like clones, both try to play a power forward type of game for the Marlies, but Hyman has been the most successful so far. It seems like he found another level with his shot too, which I think held him back as a prospect till his senior year. A lot of people talked about his shot not translating to the pro's, since it was a relatively new discovery and there were questions about whether it was one season luck. If you're fortunate one of them figures out faceoffs and you have a bottom six pivot, but I think at best both will be serviceable if unremarkable 3rd/4th line wingers. Hyman is having a good first pro year, but part of me thinks it's because he's getting easy minutes in the AHL most nights.

 

[herman]

Just because you seem to have a better handle on it than I do herman, what about Hyman? He's younger than bailey, seems to be producing at a better rate...it seems weird that we don't hear more chatter about him coming up.

I think Patrick would know better than me as he actually takes in games live. I'm mostly going by a largeish collection of what's being written about the Marlies -- more than ever before, this season! -- and the highlights I've seen.

Hyman's stats look pretty decent -- everyday player that moves up and down the lineup, chips in at a good clip. Most recently, he's been the aforementioned mucker on a line with Gauthier (distributor) and Soshnikov (triggerman). He also plays the PK and (as of yesterday) leads the league in shorties (3).

I'm going to take in the last Marlies game before the trade deadline, so I'll be watching for the lesser lights to see who is generating possession and chances the best I can.

Edit: There he is.

 

[herman]

We see very different things from Timashov I think, he'll need a trigger man and a puck retrieval guy to help him out.

Sounds like we both see him as a distributor; I think he has the wherewithal and physical tools to be the retriever (low centre of gravity, wrestler build). Again, I'd have to see more at a level outside of the Q to gain a better perspective, but that's what stuck out to me about his game watching the WJHC.

Soshnikov is a harder one to peg because you look at him in a bottom six role and think wow this guy is too skilled to be playing this role and then you look at him in a top six role and he looks like he wants to be playing the game with more jam. I think he could go either way, probably tops out as a more skilled less physical version of Komarov who can be the third guy on the first or second line and be an excellent PK option. At the very least I suspect he will be a guy who makes your third line above average if that's where he lands. He and Leipsic are pretty similar in that regard, Soshnikov looks like he could be a better team guy, Leipsic plays a similar game, but it a bit more of a scorer.

He's quite good, eh? I think he plays better in the bottom-six as an overmatching difference maker (great shot). Simpler North-South game suits his style. The Komarov comparison is apt.

Bailey and Hyman at times look like clones, both try to play a power forward type of game for the Marlies, but Hyman has been the most successful so far.

Hyman > Bailey for me. I put more weight on the mobility factor.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Thanks for your input herman, I think we agree on most of it.

It's not that I don't think Timashov is completely incapable of grinding by himself, I think he's a bit of a pest and tenacious on the puck for a smaller guy. He looks to have really high-level vision and that's the exciting part of his game, so I'd like to see him focus on that aspect I guess and allow someone else to put their body on the line so that he doesn't have to the one going into the corners every shift.

I had enjoyed watching him in Jnr, but I'm reading today that hockeystreams might be gone for good.

it'll suck not getting to watch all the CHL and AHL games. I'm more upset about that than I am the money I've lost.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I had enjoyed watching him in Jnr, but I'm reading today that hockeystreams might be gone for good.

it'll suck not getting to watch all the CHL and AHL games. I'm more upset about that than I am the money I've lost.

Yup, looks like it, I was just about to post that. I know I said I was going to give GCL a chance but I basically talked myself out of it because of all the extra features HS had (like other leagues, international tournaments, trade deadline show, draft coverage). But, ah well. Good thing I only had like 4 days left on my subscription anyway.

 

[Kin]

I know next to nothing about the service you guys are talking about but do you think it's closure is a result of the NHL looking to crack down on the grey market now that they're pushing NHL.tv as hard as they are?

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I know next to nothing about the service you guys are talking about but do you think it's closure is a result of the NHL looking to crack down on the grey market now that they're pushing NHL.tv as hard as they are?

No, it's down to them struggling to find a payment vendor that was reliable. They've not had one for months and had resorted to taking private payments via paypal apparently, the writing was on the wall and perhaps the NHL.tv change was the final nail on the coffin.

 

[Highlander]

I noticed in the last two days that Gamecenter is taking me to NHL.TV and I am not able to watch the games. I guess I will call Rogers tomorrow and find out what the hell is going on.
So what happened to Gamecenter with Rogers?