Matthews signs 5 year contract, $11.634mil AAV

[herman]

So, based on Capfriendly, assuming the cap will be $83 million, they have about $11million in capspace.  But remember - the Horton contract is still on the books for one more year, so you can exceed the cap by up to his cap hit ($5.3mil).  Bonuses of rookie players would be moved to the 2020-21 season, but that's fine since it's just getting through next year that's the issue.  So, technically they have about $16 mil next year for Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, and whoever is going to replace Gardiner/Hainsey (if it's entry level/low cap guys like Sandin/Liljegren/Rosen, that goes a long way).  You save a bit more if you replace Brown with someone like Moore/Bracco/Engvall too.

So yeah - it's tight, but it's not impossible.  Like Bender says - next year is the roughest one to get through - just gotta get through that!

Yeah, I think it would be worthwhile to keep the Horton deal for LTIR rather than spend assets to move it for real space. The only bonusable options would be Liljegren, Bracco, and Marchment if they break through, and even then it'd be bottom 3, bottom pairing, so the bonuses rolling over are minimal.

 

[princedpw]

Looking here:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/02/06/auston-matthews-contract-extension-thoughts-on-the-deal-and-the-path-forward/

the leafs have 12.2 million to spend (leaving $500K spare space). Replace Brown with someone making $700K and you have 13.6.  If Marner gets $10, can you sign kapanen and johnsson for 3.6?  Unless they get 1-year deals, I cant see it ...

This is basically the setup I used:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Gauthier-Bracco

Rielly-Muzzin
Dermott-Zaitsev
Rosen-Liljegren
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

Trade Brown. If you give Marner $10mil and you sign Sparks to a league minimum salary of $700k that leaves about $4.5mil in cap space for Johnsson and Kapanen. Or $2mil each on 1-year deals so there's the $500k left over. You sit them down and explain the plain realities of the situation and say that's all the space available to them this season. Unless they demand a trade or sign an offer sheet they really don't have much of a choice but to sign.

It's not perfect, because like I said it puts the Leafs in a tough position of only running a 21 man roster for a good part of the season. But it's doable.

Our math seemed to come out $400K different somehow (and I might have forgotten the goalie so maybe I was off by a million on the expected cap?). Whatever.  I hope that works but it is still not obvious those guys will accept those deals. We will have to see.

 

[Kin]

I hope that works but it is still not obvious those guys will accept those deals. We will have to see.

Absent them accepting those offers, I really don't see what their recourse is. I don't think teams are going to violate the Offer Sheet Omerta to sign wingers who can't crack 50 points.

 

[herman]

Not to completely re-litigate this whole situation... but let's walk through it and really see what could've been done better. Feel free to argue the minutiae.

Word is out now through various sources that there were asks on the table for Matthews and Marner and Nylander in the off-season that looked like:
Matthews: 12.34M x 8
Marner: 9M x 8
Nylander: 8M x 8

Total: 29.34M for 2019-2020

In the offseason, most people would probably balk at those numbers and hope time would bring it down citing Lou's oft-quoted mantra of using time if you have it. The timing of it all kind of boiled down to the players wanting to see what Nylander got and Nylander wanting assurances he wouldn't just be offloaded because this is where he wanted to be and not so astronomically (and unfairly) under his buddies' future deals.

Could Dubas have just bit the bullet at least on Matthews and locked in 12.34M x 8 before anything else? Once that comes out, what do you think happens to Marner's ask and Nylander's ask? Or maybe going with Marner first? No way Marner was going to sign anything once Tavares was on board, knowing he'd be getting that plum gig to pad his stats.

So Nylander should get done first. By Lou-ing the time crunch to try to get that deal closer to 6 than 8, the season started and of course Matthews and Marner both blow expectations right out of the water and now their offseason asks become in-season asks of 14+M and 11M (or what is as much as Matthews gets, according to Paul) respectively.

Nylander finally got done: 6.9M AAV x 6

Dubas admitted as much after that being so aggressively patient with the negotiation caused problems.

According to Friedman on their latest pod, he believes Matthews was the reason the deal was signed so early in February; he just wanted it done, and in the ensuing days there was palpable relief from Matthews in his interviews and game play, more relaxed and more focused.

Matthews: 11.634M AAV x 5

This puts some boundaries on Marner's deal, and I think it's a pretty easy 10M AAV x 8 or something starting with a 9 if we go less than 8 years.

6.9M + 11.634M + 10M = 28.634M for 2019-2020

Is the shorter term something to bemoan? Under the old paradigm, probably. Knowing where the cap and the league are headed? The new CBA and tv deals coming down the pipeline are set to ramp up the cap similar to how the NBA's spiked up with the NBC deal.

We'll have Nylander and Matthews ending their 2nd deals with a lot of runway left in their primes as 26/27 year olds going into likely their final big score. Marner going 8 years is very likely, especially if the AAV is only 10 or less. Seeing as he's only 14 right now, he'll still be fairly fresh for contract #3.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, looking back on it it's becoming clearer and clearer that all of these discussions are effectively meaningless without ever discussing the concept of a player's value beyond trying to fit them into the league's salary hierarchy. It's like arguing over how to quantify love.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Yeah, looking back on it it's becoming clearer and clearer that all of these discussions are effectively meaningless without ever discussing the concept of a player's value beyond trying to fit them into the league's salary hierarchy. It's like arguing over how to quantify love.

i think love can only be measured by actions. Or by the butterflies you get when you see the person of your dreams.

 

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-matthews-developed-unique-shot-hockey/

All 100 (+1) of them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wuqBTJEJhY

 

[disco]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-matthews-developed-unique-shot-hockey/

All 100 (+1) of them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wuqBTJEJhY

Fricking Shooter McGavin.

 

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-matthews-developed-unique-shot-hockey/

All 100 (+1) of them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wuqBTJEJhY

Fricking Shooter McGavin.

Something for the nerds too:
https://medium.com/@billius77/matthews-and-a-new-nhl-scoring-power-index-5482981cd309

Matthews is the third quickest player to score 100 goals in the cap era, after Ovechkin and Laine, but his goals per game rate is the highest. Re-weighting goal importance by situation and per 60 minutes puts Matthews nearly into his own echelon. The total is great, but the rate and way he's doing it (consider his Babcocked ice time and powerplay deployment prior to this season + injury returns) is bordering on unprecedented.

14% of next year's cap seems like a decent deal.

 

[Guilt Trip]

To follow up...Since Matthews came into the league...He is .008 behind OV in goals per game. Think about that for a minute. OV is one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. Points per game, he is 20th, Mitch is 30th. In points per 60 he's 8th. As mentioned he's #1 in goals per 60 and even strength goals per 60. Very impressive.

 

[herman]

To follow up...Since Matthews came into the league...He is .008 behind OV in goals per game. Think about that for a minute. OV is one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. Points per game, he is 20th, Mitch is 30th. In points per 60 he's 8th. As mentioned he's #1 in goals per 60 and even strength goals per 60. Very impressive.

And he?s just turning 22 at the beginning of next season.