Mitch Marner: what now?

[Guilt Trip]

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.

You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

 

[Bender]

You're better off cutting all the dead wood and going with contingency players/Marlies once Marner signs for one year and load up again in 20/21 when Marleau comes off the books.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/theflintor/status/1123706285717897217

 

[Deebo]

https://twitter.com/theflintor/status/1123706285717897217

I'm going to miss Bob when he retires. He's one of the only reasonable people left on the networks.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/theflintor/status/1123706285717897217

I'm going to miss Bob when he retires. He's one of the only reasonable people left on the networks.

Bob is the absolute best.

 

[Bates]

That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why I?d hold firm at 9.5. That?s 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

That?s life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

That's not how it works though.  The players association will always look to boost salary for all members so they wouldn't want guys taking less because they can make up the difference in endorsements.  While 9.5 may seem reasonable to you or me, Paul doesn't think so.

I don't recall them saying much about guys taking less in low Tax States?

 

[Kin]

I don't think that what the PA says to agents or players concerning deals is something we'd hear regardless but with that said the idea that the PA wants guys to take one number or another doesn't really make a ton of sense in a league where players get a fixed % of revenue. It's not a rising tide lifts all boats sort of situation, if a top tier player gets 12 million vs. 9, that just means some other guy gets less or everyone gets less of the escrow money back.

It's probably safe to say that the PA doesn't want something one player does to undercut what another player might ask for but as we've seen that's not really the case. Stamkos taking his team friendly deal didn't mean Tavares couldn't ask for more or McDavid's deal didn't seem to restrict what Matthews asked for at all. It's like I said during the Nylander negotiations when the Pastrnak deal was used as a comparable, contracts don't get set according to any one point of comparison so the PA probably doesn't care much about individual deals.

 

[Kin]

https://twitter.com/theflintor/status/1123706285717897217

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And then there's https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-zaitsev and https://www.capfriendly.com/players/patrick-marleau.

 

[Zee]

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.

You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

The Leafs camp has to let the Marner camp know early on what their upper limit is.  No back and forth we'll move slightly up you move slightly down garbage.  Lay it out straight, we can afford to give you X amount on the cap for X years.  If Marner thinks he can do better with potential offer sheets, let him explore that, but you also have to let them know the Leafs will be entertaining the options that go along with that.  I don't think any team would go above 10.5M for Marner, so if they think an offer sheet that high is coming all power to them, the Leafs can still a) not match and take the picks b) match the offer sheet and trade him somewhere else to a team he might not want to play for c) match and let him play.  I suggested the June 1st deadline to let them know they're serious and would start to explore trade partners if they can't come to a number that works for both parties.

I believe in option b) the Leafs can't trade Marner for 1 year if they match the offer sheet.

There's always public perception too.  If Marner, good old home-town boy actually *signs* an offer sheet to drive his contract up, I believe they'll be a significant portion of the fanbase that turns on him and his "legacy" as a Leaf becomes tarnished.  Especially if the contract is way out of line with that other wingers with similar stats are getting.

 

[Kin]

You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

Unless your "deadline" has actual real consequences then why would you tie your hands by committing yourself to one you didn't need to?

Take the Nylander thing for example. Obviously this season didn't go the way Nylander or the Leafs would have liked but if they'd set an arbitrary deadline and "explored options" then how would things have improved if Nylander stood firm? We have no way of knowing what sort of trade they could have made and as bad as this year was the value of getting Nylander signed was always about more than this year.

The idea that the Leafs had "no plan B" doesn't really hold up. I'm sure the Leafs made discrete inquiries as to their other options, the likelihood is just that no option they had was better than getting Nylander signed to a reasonable long term deal which is what they did.

 

[Deebo]

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And then there's https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-zaitsev and https://www.capfriendly.com/players/patrick-marleau.

The strange narrative going around is that Dubas "caves" in negotiations while Lou was some kind of hard ass.

Nylander called at the last minute and took the deal that was on the table while Marleau demanded a 3rd year (with a high AAV on a 35+ contract with an NMC) or he wasn't going to sign and Lou decided to give in and sign for Zaitsev 7 years after one year in the league.

And now they have 10.75M tied up in a below average 3rd liner and #4D as a result of Lou caving to demands. If Dubas did cave, what is the impact? 1.5M between Matthews and Nylander combined?

 

[Deebo]

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And even if those deals were a significant discount at the time, if you turn around and blow the savings on Marleau and Zaitsev, then what was good were they?

 

[herman]

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And then there's https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-zaitsev and https://www.capfriendly.com/players/patrick-marleau.

The strange narrative going around is that Dubas "caves" in negotiations while Lou was some kind of hard ass.

Nylander called at the last minute and took the deal that was on the table while Marleau demanded a 3rd year (with a high AAV on a 35+ contract with an NMC) or he wasn't going to sign and Lou decided to give in and sign for Zaitsev 7 years after one year in the league.

And now they have 10.75M tied up in a below average 3rd liner and #4D as a result of Lou caving to demands. If Dubas did cave, what is the impact? 1.5M between Matthews and Nylander combined?

One has decades of relationships with people in the league and in media while the other has been painted as an upstart Doogie Howser, both intersecting in the eye of the analytics storm where the whole community has publicly polarized to Eyeballs vs Spreadsheets. This is just the lazy narrative that fits that worldview.

 

[herman]

Speaking of narratives:
https://twitter.com/TheOakLeafs/status/1123937242328850437

 

[Bender]

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And even if those deals were a significant discount at the time, if you turn around and blow the savings on Marleau and Zaitsev, then what was good were they?

Lou is getting way too much credit in the media now. "Do you think Babcock would say this if Lou were in charge?" "Do you think the RFAs would play hardball with Lou?"

Does the media think Lou wouldn't have been stuck in protracted negotiations because he's some sort of mob boss? It's nonsensical. And lately they've brought up Mike not winning anything for years. Well there was a span where Chicago/LA/Pittsburgh made up the bulk of wins for years. From 2009-2018 the only other teams beyond Chicago/LA/Pitt who won multiple cups were Boston in 2011 & Washington in 2018. I think be definition not many coaches will have won anything for a substantial amount of time. And to top it off Lou's only successes and Cups were on the back of one of the greatest goaltenders of all time.

Lou's become so incredibly overrated it's ridiculous.

 

[Kaberle15]

His market value is $9.5-10 million x 8. Add on the Dubas Premium and don't be surprised if he gets $11 million x 8.

Dubas premium should be the ability to actually receive 50% of this amazing 9Mi x 8 on the 1st and 2nd years of his contract. That is the Leafs leverage here, but he can not let Marner go the distance and he must be signed by June 1st, otherwise the Leafs hands are tied to sign anyone else.

 

[Kaberle15]

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.

With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?

 

[Kin]

With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?

Given that the range between Marner's initial ask and the sort of super-dream Team-friendly deal is probably no more than 2.5 million, that's not a number that should paralyze the Leafs' ability to make decisions on other guys.

 

[Deebo]

With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?

There is no year 1 penalty.

The full year cap hit is higher, but the cap hit for a player is calculated by taking the daily cap hit multiplied by the number of days he on the roster.

When you pro-rate the 1st year full year number to the number of days that the player is on the roster, the actual cap hit for that player is equal to the cap hit for the remaining years.

Look at the accumulated hit for Nylander on this page:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker