Morgan Rielly

[GhostofPotvin29]

But doesn't a lot of that concept hinge on a player being able to step in and immediately contribute at a really high level? I have serious doubts that a guy like Rielly, who is probably always going to have defensive issues, is almost certainly going to have a first season where he's learning the ropes. I don't think there's any amount of time in junior or the AHL that's going to lead to Rielly being able to play 22 minutes a night as a rookie if he's not able to do that now.

If Rielly plays 9 NHL games with the Leafs in October and November, gets sent to the WJC in December, and back to the WHL in January, I don't see how he won't be a better player on October 1st, 2014 than he is right now. I get that playing defence in junior is nowhere close to playing defence in the NHL, but he can still improve his game in the above scenario. Even if it's just from a physical stand point that would go a long way to making his jump to the NHL easier.

And I think that's the best way to maximize the value out of Rielly's ELC.  As Mirtle points out, very few defensemen his age make a significant impact and even that one extra year should go a long way towards the Leafs knowing what they have when it comes time for his 2nd contract.  I think Luke Schenn is a good example of the ELC ending and not knowing really what his potential still was.

 

[Deebo]

I don't know what they will do cap wise, but some quotes from Nonis last night at an event of season ticket holders suggest that Rielly could be staying:

Dave Feschuk @dfeschuk
The big takeaway from Leafs powwow w/ season-ticket holders tonight: Nonis says Morgan Rielly looks "ready to take a job."

Dave Feschuk @dfeschuk
Nonis said Carlyle needs to be comfortable Rielly can play "12 to 15 min a night" ... "That's something we feel is going to happen." #leafs


Personally, I feel bottom paring ES minutes and 2nd PP time to start could be more beneficial for him than the WHL. We'll see what happens though.

That was all before Franson signed. That changed things. As things stand right now, there is neither cap space nor a spot in the lineup for him.

I think there can be both cap and roster room for him, if they want. I don't know what they'll end up doing, but its possible.

Liles getting demoted would save the team 925k in cap space and Rielly's cap hit without bonuses would be ~925k.

Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Ranger-Gardiner
Rielly-Franson
Fraser

Holzer and Brennan out

 

[Corn Flake]

If they drop Colborne as well, they have $933,333 in cap space.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If they drop Colborne as well, they have $933,333 in cap space.

They'll need the extra forward though while Clarkson is suspended.

 

[Corn Flake]

If they drop Colborne as well, they have $933,333 in cap space.

They'll need the extra forward though while Clarkson is suspended.

So it's really close to the cap for those 10 games, or whenever McLaren is off IR.  Poulin says there is more room than "a popular cap website suggests" with bonuses, etc. so my guess is they can handle it ok.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If they drop Colborne as well, they have $933,333 in cap space.

They'll need the extra forward though while Clarkson is suspended.

So it's really close to the cap for those 10 games, or whenever McLaren is off IR.  Poulin says there is more room than "a popular cap website suggests" with bonuses, etc. so my guess is they can handle it ok.

The problem with Poulin's comment there is that capgeek doesn't actually count bonuses in their totals. All of the totals that I've been writing up in the past few days doesn't count the $300k in bonuses that are on Gardiner's contract.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think there can be both cap and roster room for him, if they want. I don't know what they'll end up doing, but its possible.

Liles getting demoted would save the team 925k in cap space and Rielly's cap hit without bonuses would be ~925k.

Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Ranger-Gardiner
Rielly-Franson
Fraser

Holzer and Brennan out

That line-up, with Colborne as the 13th forward because of Clarkson's suspension, would give the Leafs $364,167 in cap space. So it's doable, but things get very dicey if minor injuries pop up.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don't know what they will do cap wise, but some quotes from Nonis last night at an event of season ticket holders suggest that Rielly could be staying:

Dave Feschuk @dfeschuk
The big takeaway from Leafs powwow w/ season-ticket holders tonight: Nonis says Morgan Rielly looks "ready to take a job."

Dave Feschuk @dfeschuk
Nonis said Carlyle needs to be comfortable Rielly can play "12 to 15 min a night" ... "That's something we feel is going to happen." #leafs


Personally, I feel bottom paring ES minutes and 2nd PP time to start could be more beneficial for him than the WHL. We'll see what happens though.

That was all before Franson signed. That changed things. As things stand right now, there is neither cap space nor a spot in the lineup for him.

I think there can be both cap and roster room for him, if they want. I don't know what they'll end up doing, but its possible.

Liles getting demoted would save the team 925k in cap space and Rielly's cap hit without bonuses would be ~925k.

Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Ranger-Gardiner
Rielly-Franson
Fraser

Holzer and Brennan out

This is exactly what I was thinking.  Liles doesn't need to be traded to fit Reilly in- he just needs to get demoted.  Nobody will claim him.  Then, when we send Reilly to WJHC in December, we bring up Liles as the 7th defenseman (unless someone down there is performing better).  Sucks that we are taking a 2.9 million cap hit for someone in the minors- but I think Reilly deserves the 9 game audition spread over the first two months of the season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Ok, but if I'm of the opinion that the best thing for his development is the NHL then couldn't an argument be made that while your scenario has a more valuable Rielly in year one of the ELC, one where he sticks with the big club would see a more valuable Rielly in years two and three?

Ok, I see your point now. And that's definitely fair. I still go back to the belief that there's more players who have been hurt by being rushed than there are who have been hurt by being held back. Sample size plays into that a little bit though.

If Rielly makes it impossible for the team to send him back down after his 9 game stint, then keep him. But from what I've seen in the preseason I don't think he's going to really earn Carlyle's trust enough to be an everyday defenceman on this team throughout the year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Ok, but if I'm of the opinion that the best thing for his development is the NHL then couldn't an argument be made that while your scenario has a more valuable Rielly in year one of the ELC, one where he sticks with the big club would see a more valuable Rielly in years two and three?

Ok, I see your point now. And that's definitely fair. I still go back to the belief that there's more players who have been hurt by being rushed than there are who have been hurt by being held back. Sample size plays into that a little bit though.

If Rielly makes it impossible for the team to send him back down after his 9 game stint, then keep him. But from what I've seen in the preseason I don't think he's going to really earn Carlyle's trust enough to be an everyday defenceman on this team throughout the year.

If Gardiner wasn't until last year's playoffs I don't see how Rielly could gain that much trust with the staff already.

 

[Kin]

Ok, I see your point now. And that's definitely fair. I still go back to the belief that there's more players who have been hurt by being rushed than there are who have been hurt by being held back. Sample size plays into that a little bit though.

Yeah, and I tend to be of the opinion that guys who were "hurt" by being rushed tend to be guys who wouldn't have made it anyway but that's really just conjecture on all of our parts there.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think there can be both cap and roster room for him, if they want. I don't know what they'll end up doing, but its possible.

Liles getting demoted would save the team 925k in cap space and Rielly's cap hit without bonuses would be ~925k.

Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Ranger-Gardiner
Rielly-Franson
Fraser

Holzer and Brennan out

That line-up, with Colborne as the 13th forward because of Clarkson's suspension, would give the Leafs $364,167 in cap space. So it's doable, but things get very dicey if minor injuries pop up.

Someone else mentioned it elsewhere, but if injury call-ups are on relatively cheap contracts, you're only paying them their daily rate times however many days they are on the roster.

Some people are looking at the annual salary and forgetting it is pro-rated, so we have more wiggle room.

 

[bustaheims]

Someone else mentioned it elsewhere, but if injury call-ups are on relatively cheap contracts, you're only paying them their daily rate times however many days they are on the roster.

Someone mentioned it without actually having the facts backing them up.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Someone else mentioned it elsewhere, but if injury call-ups are on relatively cheap contracts, you're only paying them their daily rate times however many days they are on the roster.

Someone mentioned it without actually having the facts backing them up.

*drops the mic*

 

[Peter D.]

If Rielly plays 9 NHL games with the Leafs in October and November, gets sent to the WJC in December, and back to the WHL in January, I don't see how he won't be a better player on October 1st, 2014 than he is right now. I get that playing defence in junior is nowhere close to playing defence in the NHL, but he can still improve his game in the above scenario. Even if it's just from a physical stand point that would go a long way to making his jump to the NHL easier.

My thoughts as well are that this is the most ideal scenario. 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Zing, nice Busta!

So the cap hit is not pro-rated based on time spent on the roster?

Oh and Carlton...

If Rielly plays 9 NHL games with the Leafs in October and November, gets sent to the WJC in December, and back to the WHL in January, I don't see how he won't be a better player on October 1st, 2014 than he is right now. I get that playing defence in junior is nowhere close to playing defence in the NHL, but he can still improve his game in the above scenario. Even if it's just from a physical stand point that would go a long way to making his jump to the NHL easier.

Is this similar to what the Blues did with Pietrangelo?

 

[Kin]

If Rielly plays 9 NHL games with the Leafs in October and November, gets sent to the WJC in December, and back to the WHL in January, I don't see how he won't be a better player on October 1st, 2014 than he is right now. I get that playing defence in junior is nowhere close to playing defence in the NHL, but he can still improve his game in the above scenario. Even if it's just from a physical stand point that would go a long way to making his jump to the NHL easier.

My thoughts as well are that this is the most ideal scenario.

And for clarification's sake, I don't necessarily think that's not the case, I just don't want the Leafs to be making the decision based on some sort of Farmer's Almanac wisdom that hasn't really been tested and kind of runs counter to how most teams develop their top defensemen.

 

[bustaheims]

So the cap hit is not pro-rated based on time spent on the roster?

Only once the player is off the roster. While they're on the roster, the entire remainder of their cap hit counts against the ceiling - which, as of right now, means their entire cap hit.

 

[Deebo]

So the cap hit is not pro-rated based on time spent on the roster?

Only once the player is off the roster. While they're on the roster, the entire remainder of their cap hit counts against the ceiling - which, as of right now, means their entire cap hit.

But if someone gets hurt, say 8 games into the season, the call-up's cap hit would be ~90% of the his cap hit?

 

[bustaheims]

But if someone gets hurt, say 8 games into the season, the call-up's cap hit would be ~90% of the his cap hit?

Basically, yeah - though, cap hit/salary isn't calculated on games, but by days in the league's regular season (there's usually 185-190 days per season).