Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[bustaheims]

We spend a lot of time talking about what we want to see happen, how about the opposite? What's the worst-case scenario for this summer? Draft Ritchie over a skilled player and sign a trio of mediocre players with intangibles (Brodeur/Orpik/Bolland or Thornton)?

I think worst case scenario would be drafting Haydn Fleury, actually. Of the players expected to go near the Leafs' pick, he's probably the least skilled and the most likely to be looked at as a guy who is "tough and has intangibles."

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think worst case scenario would be drafting Haydn Fleury, actually. Of the players expected to go near the Leafs' pick, he's probably the least skilled and the most likely to be looked at as a guy who is "tough and has intangibles."

I've never even considered the possibility. That'd be such a stretch, even for this group. But yeah you're right, that'd definitely kick off the "Worst offseason since the one we had last summer".

 

[Redleaf]

We spend a lot of time talking about what we want to see happen, how about the opposite? What's the worst-case scenario for this summer? Draft Ritchie over a skilled player and sign a trio of mediocre players with intangibles (Brodeur/Orpik/Bolland or Thornton)?

I think worst case scenario would be drafting Haydn Fleury, actually. Of the players expected to go near the Leafs' pick, he's probably the least skilled and the most likely to be looked at as a guy who is "tough and has intangibles."

And yet, a crease-clearing, defence-first D man is exactly what the Leafs need. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they select Haydn.

Although I do recall reading somewhere that Shanahan is looking to get someone that is more high risk/high reward this year, so...

 

[bustaheims]

And yet, a crease-clearing, defence-first D man is exactly what the Leafs need. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they select Haydn.

Well, regardless of whether or nor I agree with that, those are not the type of players you draft with a top 10 pick - especially when you're talking about a guy who is projected to be a 2nd pairing type and will definitely not be the best player available at 8. The Leafs have plenty of 2nd and 3rd pairing prospects in the system right now. You also don't draft for immediate needs, because, well, you never expect a draft pick to be able to fill that need immediately. First and foremost, you draft the best player available, and, if there's any debate over who that may be, you then look at gaps in your prospect pool. For the Leafs, none of these things point to Fleury. None. Which is exactly why they will take him.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

It could get worse...

If Management actually, really view Kadri and Gardiner as less skilled than they are and trade them for something that we all collectively toss our cookies on. To me, that would be hard to stomach a scenario like that.

I'd like to keep them both for at least 2 more years, but if they do trade them, I hope we get some really good, younger pieces coming back. If we don't, well, that would be the worst for me, regardless of who we sign in free agency or draft.

 

[Redleaf]

And yet, a crease-clearing, defence-first D man is exactly what the Leafs need. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they select Haydn.

Well, regardless of whether or nor I agree with that, those are not the type of players you draft with a top 10 pick - especially when you're talking about a guy who is projected to be a 2nd pairing type and will definitely not be the best player available at 8. The Leafs have plenty of 2nd and 3rd pairing prospects in the system right now. You also don't draft for immediate needs, because, well, you never expect a draft pick to be able to fill that need immediately. First and foremost, you draft the best player available, and, if there's any debate over who that may be, you then look at gaps in your prospect pool. For the Leafs, none of these things point to Fleury. None. Which is exactly why they will take him.

I agree with everything except the Leafs selecting him with their pick. It wouldn't shock me, but Shanny has indicated he'll take a riskier approach, and I believe him.

 

[Redleaf]

It could get worse...

If Management actually, really view Kadri and Gardiner as less skilled than they are and trade them for something that we all collectively toss our cookies on. To me, that would be hard to stomach a scenario like that.

I'd like to keep them both for at least 2 more years, but if they do trade them, I hope we get some really good, younger pieces coming back. If we don't, well, that would be the worst for me, regardless of who we sign in free agency or draft.

I don't see that scenario unfolding either, as Shanahan, appears at least, to be on the same page as Nonis when it comes to drafting and having patience with his rookie players.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I don't see that scenario unfolding either, as Shanahan, appears at least, to be on the same page as Nonis when it comes to drafting and having patience with his rookie players.

I would hope so, but I can't remember hearing as much, not only rumours, but the "shopping" term used as much as I have with these two guys. I keep asking myself if there's something that I'm missing that the Leafs see.

 

[2badknees]

I keep asking myself if there's something that I'm missing that the Leafs see.

While I read a lot of opinions here about the leafs giving up on their young players, I'm trying to think of modern examples. Definitely Steen is the most obvious, and then I'm blanking out. Maybe Stralman?

 

[bustaheims]

While I read a lot of opinions here about the leafs giving up on their young players, I'm trying to think of modern examples. Definitely Steen is the most obvious, and then I'm blanking out. Maybe Stralman?

Rask and Tlusty, to a point - though, the issue for most of the last decade or so has been that there hasn't been much in terms of young players in the system for the Leafs to give up on.

 

[nutman]

There are more good prospects now than there has been in ten years combined.

 

[bustaheims]

There are more good prospects now than there has been in ten years combined.

Not really, no. There still aren't any high ceiling guys other than Rielly (and, hopefully, whoever they draft this year). There's a lot of bottom 6 forwards and 4/7 defencemen, which is great, because those are areas teams need to be able to fill with younger, more cost effective players, but, there is still a real  lack of high-end talent in the system. Other than Rielly and maybe Holland, there isn't anyone who's still a prospect that the team can't replace relatively easily or isn't a significant long-shot to become an impact NHLer.

 

[hap_leaf]

There are more good prospects now than there has been in ten years combined.

Not really, no. There still aren't any high ceiling guys other than Rielly (and, hopefully, whoever they draft this year). There's a lot of bottom 6 forwards and 4/7 defencemen, which is great, because those are areas teams need to be able to fill with younger, more cost effective players, but, there is still a real  lack of high-end talent in the system. Other than Rielly and maybe Holland, there isn't anyone who's still a prospect that the team can't replace relatively easily or isn't a significant long-shot to become an impact NHLer.

Well in fairness to the nutman, he refers to a number of "good" prospects and not "high ceiling guys".  I think there are a lot of simply "good" players evolving: Granberg, Loov, Leivo, Biggs and Gauthier come to mind and as evidenced by the Marlies' success there are some good players there.    And as you say, certainly could be replaced as well.

 

[bustaheims]

Well in fairness to the nutman, he refers to a number of "good" prospects and not "high ceiling guys".  I think there are a lot of simply "good" players evolving: Granberg, Loov, Leivo, Biggs and Gauthier come to mind and as evidenced by the Marlies' success there are some good players there.    And as you say, certainly could be replaced as well.

Maybe I have higher standards, but, I don't consider guys whose ceilings are essentially to be replaceable parts of an NHL roster to be good prospects.

Also, Biggs isn't evolving into anything other than a 1st round bust at this point. He's looking like a career minor leaguer.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also, Biggs isn't evolving into anything other than a 1st round bust at this point. He's looking like a career minor leaguer.

Is it really considered a bust if that's what a lot of people projected him to be?

 

[bustaheims]

Is it really considered a bust if that's what a lot of people projected him to be?

Only because he was a 1st round pick - but, yeah, it's certainly debatable. Can't believe Burke felt he had to trade up to get him.

 

[Deebo]

He was ranked 15th on TSN's final draft rankings that year.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He was ranked 15th on TSN's final draft rankings that year.

 

[Kin]

Well in fairness to the nutman, he refers to a number of "good" prospects and not "high ceiling guys".

It's still entirely revisionist, discounting guys who were touted as "good" prospects before because they didn't turn out to be anything special while overselling everyone in the system now. The Leafs have always had bunches of guys in the system who were sold as being pretty good low ceiling types.

 

[bustaheims]

He was ranked 15th on TSN's final draft rankings that year.

I think that tells you more about Craig Button and TSN's draft rankings than it does about Biggs.

Central scouting had him 22nd among North American skaters, which would have put him around 30th overall. ISS had him at 31.