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Opening Round: Tampa vs Columbus

Somebody mentioned that guy and his model, which had a CBJ sweep at 2%.

But that's probability for you.  Outside of theory it's never 0 or 1 (0% or 100%, impossible or certain).  As physicists say, if you have eternity, an infinite amount of time to work with, all allowed things absolutely will happen, even the most improbable.  It's just that in this case it took slightly less time than eternity.
 
Here?s a little factoid that won?t lessen the hurt for Tampa followers:

Not since the expansion era has a team who has led the league all season lost in the opening round of the NHL playoffs.  Sorry Tampa fans, little solace for you.
 
hockeyfan1 said:
Here?s a little factoid that won?t lessen the hurt for Tampa followers:

Not since the expansion era has a team who has led the league all season lost in the opening round of the NHL playoffs.  Sorry Tampa fans, little solace for you.
Click to expand...

What do you mean by this? Lots of Presidents Trophy winners have lost in the 1st round.
 
herman said:
I don?t think that is his contention, hf1, but I?ll let him explain if he wants.
Click to expand...

You don't think what is my contention.

herman said:
If hockey games are coin flips, it is entirely possible for tails to turn up four times in a row. An unexpected and rare occurrence, but not impossible. Everyone is going to read way too much into this and apply some sort of morality to a result of small samples (players and fans and management alike).
Click to expand...

Or, to look at it another way, if a coin flip goes tails three times in a row, the odds of the fourth coin flip being tails is exactly the same as the first one.

Or again, imagine rolling a die with 100 sides. The odds of rolling the same number on two consecutive rolls would be astronomically high. That said, the odds of rolling the same number two consecutive times is exactly the same as the odds of rolling any two specific numbers in a row. Attaching some sort of deep meaning to any particular outcome is pointless.
 
Wow...completely unexpected. 

The playoffs are a totally different beast - and the playoffs are the only thing that matters.  The best team obviously doesn't always win - and that's the beauty of it.  Tampa Bay (and the record of President's Trophy winners in general) is proof positive that the regular season is mostly meaningless when it comes to the playoffs.  It's 82 games of practice for the real thing.  Tampa failed.  It's not the first time an 8 has beat a 1, and it wont' be the last.

I love what Columbus did at the TDL, and I'm super glad that they were ultimately rewarded for it. 
 
pmrules said:
I love what Columbus did at the TDL, and I'm super glad that they were ultimately rewarded for it. 
Click to expand...

I wonder how this effects their ability to keep their UFAs. Or at least the big-3.
 
pmrules said:
I love what Columbus did at the TDL, and I'm super glad that they were ultimately rewarded for it.
Click to expand...

I was thinking the same thing - when it looked like they were in danger of not making the playoffs, I figured, great - that kills TSN trade deadline day next year, because Kekkolainen is out the door after mortgaging the future on a bad bet, and all the other GMs are going to put their first rounders in a lockbox.

After pulling off what might be the greatest upset in modern NHL history, I'm going to ready the beer and chips for next years TDD.
 
Are we contending that the outcome of an NHL hockey game is roughly equivalent to a coin-flip because of parity? And is this simply to simplify the argument?

Because while I can agree that any team in this league has a reasonable chance of beating any other team, I can't get behind a 128 point team not having a significant edge over a 98 point team.

Edit: nevermind. I've reread the posts.  8)
 
CarltonTheBear said:
pmrules said:
I love what Columbus did at the TDL, and I'm super glad that they were ultimately rewarded for it. 
Click to expand...

I wonder how this effects their ability to keep their UFAs. Or at least the big-3.
Click to expand...

I hope that they look back and see that they actually have something there, and I hope they ALL come back.

That being said I'm hoping they suffer a crushing defeat in the 2nd round to our Buds!
 
CarltonTheBear said:
hockeyfan1 said:
Here?s a little factoid that won?t lessen the hurt for Tampa followers:

Not since the expansion era has a team who has led the league all season lost in the opening round of the NHL playoffs.  Sorry Tampa fans, little solace for you.
Click to expand...

What do you mean by this? Lots of Presidents Trophy winners have lost in the 1st round.
Click to expand...

I should have added ?been swept? not ?lost?.

The actual statement is here:  via Sportsnet

Tampa Bay became the first team in the expansion era, which began in 1967-68, to go winless in the first round of the playoffs after leading the league in points during the regular season.
Click to expand...

Also this:
[tweet]1118329146524856321[/tweet]
 
This was a pretty good autopsy.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/26540856/anatomy-playoff-collapse-happened-tampa-bay-lightning
 
Imagine being a Bolts fan. For all eternity now, a 3-0 lead in a game is going to conjure up even more painful memories than a 4-1 lead does for us. Maybe even more painful than hearing the words "Kerry Fraser" and "high stick".
 
Hobbes said:
Imagine being a Bolts fan. For all eternity now, a 3-0 lead in a game is going to conjure up even more painful memories than a 4-1 lead does for us. Maybe even more painful than hearing the words "Kerry Fraser" and "high stick".
Click to expand...

Cooper said something like if they win the Cup next year this will all be forgotten. But yeah if this core doesn't end up winning in the next few years before change is necessary then it'll loom over them for a long time.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Hobbes said:
Imagine being a Bolts fan. For all eternity now, a 3-0 lead in a game is going to conjure up even more painful memories than a 4-1 lead does for us. Maybe even more painful than hearing the words "Kerry Fraser" and "high stick".
Click to expand...

Cooper said something like if they win the Cup next year this will all be forgotten. But yeah if this core doesn't end up winning in the next few years before change is necessary then it'll loom over them for a long time.
Click to expand...
Bolts have some decisions to make going forward. Point needs to be signed and he isn't coming cheap. Kucherov and Gordes contracts kick in so they're already at 50 mill for 9 forwards before signing Point. They also only have 4 D signed with Stralman, Girardi, Colbourne becoming UFAs. Somebody's getting traded I would think.
 
Guilt Trip said:
]Bolts have some decisions to make going forward. Point needs to be signed and he isn't coming cheap. Kucherov and Gordes contracts kick in so they're already at 50 mill for 9 forwards before signing Point. They also only have 4 D signed with Stralman, Girardi, Colbourne becoming UFAs. Somebody's getting traded I would think.
Click to expand...

Stralman's the only real loss there, the other UFAs are all old and overpaid. And considering Stralman turns 33 this summer and had a CF below 50% for the first time in 6 years it might be a blessing in disguise if they're unable to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Point will probably re-sign to some stupid team friendly contract and they'll ditch the last year of Callahan's deal by sending him to the Rangers or something. So they'll need to reply on some cheap deals to fill out the roster but they'll probably be fine.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Guilt Trip said:
Bolts have some decisions to make going forward. Point needs to be signed and he isn't coming cheap. Kucherov and Gordes contracts kick in so they're already at 50 mill for 9 forwards before signing Point. They also only have 4 D signed with Stralman, Girardi, Colbourne becoming UFAs. Somebody's getting traded I would think.
Click to expand...

Stralman's the only real loss there, the other UFAs are all old and overpaid. And considering Stralman turns 33 this summer and had a CF below 50% for the first time in 6 years it might be a blessing in disguise if they're unable to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Point will probably re-sign to some stupid team friendly contract and they'll ditch the last year of Callahan's deal by sending him to the Rangers or something. So they'll need to reply on some cheap deals to fill out the roster but they'll probably be fine.
Click to expand...
Probably will be like the Leafs will also. Just have to move some pieces. I wonder what Stralman would cost. Could he be an option for the Leafs if cheap enough or is he done and we hope Liljegren is ready?
 
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