Phil Kessel and trade value

[Kin]

I'm not sure how familiar the rest of you are with Bill Simmons annual "trade value" columns concerning the NBA but basically it boils down to him ranking the top 50 players in the NBA based on their perceived trade value around the league. Here's the most recent one:

http://grantland.com/features/nba-trade-value-part-1-2/

Anyways, one of the more recent things I've seen coming up here and elsewhere concerns Phil Kessel and his relative value around the league. It seems like a subject where opinions vary pretty wildly and, in the interest of kicking up some discussion in a long, dead August, I thought I'd throw the question out there. How many players in the NHL do people figure there are that they'd trade Phil Kessel for straight-up, one for one?

Contracts are relevant, age is relevant. Keep in mind that this isn't about "best" as I wouldn't trade Kessel for Perry or Getzlaf despite thinking they're both better than he is and likewise Nathan Mackinnon hasn't been as good as Kessel in a season but I would probably make that trade.

Personally, my list is 18 strong.

 

[ZBBM]

Kindly post your list so the rest of us can take potshots at it instead of thinking on our own.

 

[Kin]

Kindly post your list so the rest of us can take potshots at it instead of thinking on our own.

Oh, sure. My list was, in no particular order: Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Price, Doughty, Pieterangelo, Tavares, Kopitar, Bergeron, Seguin, Benn, Mackinnon, Toews, Weber, Giroux, Kane and Duchene.

Other than that, I don't know if I'd take anyone straight up for him. Hall and the Anaheim guys are probably the toughest almosts.

 

[2badknees]

I'd likely add Subban and Getzlaf from your "maybe" list. I'd add Landeskog, Duncan Keith, and Hall as my possibles. Solid list overall though, hard to debate.

I'd actually remove Bergeron, Price, and Ovechkin. Yup, I went there.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I broke my list up into categories. I also have 18 guys Nik but I'm sure there's a few differences so I'd be curious to know what they are.

Tier 1
Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stamkos, Tavares

For my money, the top-5 players in the NHL. They are all close to Kessel in age so you're not really missing out on any prime years of a players career. The first 3 are signed long-term to great contracts considering where the cap is. Stamkos and Tavares will need new deals in the next few years, but I'm confident they would re-sign here although their cap hits will be more in the $11-13mil range which would just be considered "fair" considering where the cap is.

Tier 2

Toews, Kopitar, Getzlaf, Giroux

Kopitar and Toews are the two best two-way centres on the planet. Kessel will outscore them both but their defensive abilities aren't even close. Both of their contracts made me think for a second, as Kopitar is nearing UFA and Toews' cap hit is huge, but I'd still make the moves. Getzlaf and Giroux will likely score at a similar rate to Kessel, but I think they have the positional advantage and both are also above-average defensively.

Tier 3

Subban, Doughty, Price, Rask

This is one where I've flip-flopped quite a bit because of how hard it is to compare forwards to defencemen/goalies. Looking at the goalies first, I'm very hesitant to commit big money to a goalie for long-term. Price and Rask are the only two I would consider because of their age/talent/contracts, but I could just as easily be talked out of this. Lundqvist isn't an option because of his age and I think Quick is a tad overrated and that his contract is way too long.

Looking at the defencemen, I think Subban and Doughty are both top-5 defencemen in the prime of their lives that will likely dominate the Norris trophy race over the next 5-8 years. I originally had Karlsson here but took him out last second because I don't think he's as good defensively as those two.

Tier 4

Hall, Seguin, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov

This tier is made up of players that might not be as good/established as Kessel is right now, but they're significantly younger and have the potential to be just as good but for a longer period of time from now. Hall and Seguin are both point-per-game players who are 4-5 years younger than Kessel is right now. Seguin is also a centre which gives him a bit of a boost. They are both also on very fair long-term contracts. MacKinnon is pretty much in the same boat although the fact that he's just a teenager gives him an even bigger advantage.

Drouin and Barkov are two that I would really only consider if the team decided to strip down and re-build. Both have legitimate 1st line potential and again are just teenagers. So we'd have them under our control from the ages of 19-25 at least (plus possibly/likely beyond). Again, if the team decided to rebuild that would be better than keeping Kessel from the ages of 27-35.

 

[Kin]

I broke my list up into categories. I also have 18 guys Nik but I'm sure there's a few differences so I'd be curious to know what they are.

It seems like our lists are pretty similar with the biggest discrepancy being at defense. I like PK Subban a lot but I'm still not sure him at 9 million per is great value compared to someone like Shea Weber at 7.8 or Pietrangelo at 6.5(for six more seasons to boot).

Also I think that someone like Duchene or Landeskog would replace guys like Drouin or Barkov on my wishlist if the team were rebuilding just because they're still so young but have proven a considerable amount.

I agree on the goalies though. I have Price there because I think he's so technically sound that I'm more comfortable with him going forward than a lot of goalies but if someone wanted to put no goalies on their list I couldn't argue.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It seems like our lists are pretty similar with the biggest discrepancy being at defense. I like PK Subban a lot but I'm still not sure him at 9 million per is great value compared to someone like Shea Weber at 7.8 or Pietrangelo at 6.5(for six more seasons to boot).

Those would have been the only other two defencemen I would have even considered. I was a little concerned about the length of Weber's contract and the fact that it takes him to 40. With a guy like that who knows when his play/body will start to break down. On the plus side it doesn't seem as though the Leafs would be hit with any considerable recapture penalties if he retires (Nashville would take the brunt of it). As for Pietrangelo, he's always been a guy I had high on my top defencemen list without really seeing him play (as in I based my ranking of him more on what others said about him). But having kept a close eye on him during the Olympics and playoffs I wasn't really wow'ed. I certainly don't think he's overpaid or anything like that, but for me he's not quite at Subban/Doughty's level so I don't have a problem paying Subban more money.

Looking at your list, I think my biggest surprise is seeing Patrick Kane's name there. I've always felt that the two are roughly equals, so considering you'd be paying Kane $2.5mil more a season he was a pretty easy no for me.

 

[Kin]

Looking at your list, I think my biggest surprise is seeing Patrick Kane's name there. I've always felt that the two are roughly equals, so considering you'd be paying Kane $2.5mil more a season he was a pretty easy no for me.

It's a fair point. For me I think that because Kane is both a full year younger than Kessel and better enough that I could live with the higher cap hit and still think the Leafs would come out ahead ultimately.

 

[bustaheims]

Looking at your list, I think my biggest surprise is seeing Patrick Kane's name there. I've always felt that the two are roughly equals, so considering you'd be paying Kane $2.5mil more a season he was a pretty easy no for me.

That's how I feel, too. To me, the biggest difference between them is the quality of the players on the team they play for. Swap them and I don't think you see any real change in the fortunes of either team.

 

[bustaheims]

Oh, sure. My list was, in no particular order: Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Price, Doughty, Pieterangelo, Tavares, Kopitar, Bergeron, Seguin, Benn, Mackinnon, Toews, Weber, Giroux, Kane and Duchene.

Other than that, I don't know if I'd take anyone straight up for him. Hall and the Anaheim guys are probably the toughest almosts.

My list would largely be the same, though, it wouldn't include Benn or Kane. I'd also include Karlsson among the almosts.

 

[Kin]

My list would largely be the same, though, it wouldn't include Benn or Kane. I'd also include Karlsson among the almosts.

I really think Benn is legit. Physical, responsible defensively and seems to be steadily improving on the draw. I know there's a temptation to attribute his year last year to the arrival of Seguin but in his two full seasons prior to Seguin getting there he scored at roughly a 70 points per 82 games basis.

I agree on Karlsson though. He's just in that next tier.

 

[Redleaf]

It seems like our lists are pretty similar with the biggest discrepancy being at defense. I like PK Subban a lot but I'm still not sure him at 9 million per is great value compared to someone like Shea Weber at 7.8 or Pietrangelo at 6.5(for six more seasons to boot).

Those would have been the only other two defencemen I would have even considered. I was a little concerned about the length of Weber's contract and the fact that it takes him to 40. With a guy like that who knows when his play/body will start to break down. On the plus side it doesn't seem as though the Leafs would be hit with any considerable recapture penalties if he retires (Nashville would take the brunt of it). As for Pietrangelo, he's always been a guy I had high on my top defencemen list without really seeing him play (as in I based my ranking of him more on what others said about him). But having kept a close eye on him during the Olympics and playoffs I wasn't really wow'ed. I certainly don't think he's overpaid or anything like that, but for me he's not quite at Subban/Doughty's level so I don't have a problem paying Subban more money.

Looking at your list, I think my biggest surprise is seeing Patrick Kane's name there. I've always felt that the two are roughly equals, so considering you'd be paying Kane $2.5mil more a season he was a pretty easy no for me.

Love the new avatar Carlton. I hope we mop up those guys on Oct 21st.

 

[Deebo]

I don't think I'd put any goalie on my list.

 

[Kin]

I don't think I'd put any goalie on my list.

How much do you suppose that has to do with the Leafs' goaltending situation looking pretty good right now? Would you feel the same if the Leafs had a real problem in net?

 

[Joe S.]

Maybe it's because I now little to nothing about the NBA, but that may have been one of the most unreadable articles I've ever seen.

 

[sneakyray]

no suter or parise? 

 

[Deebo]

Would you feel the same if the Leafs had a real problem in net?

I think so, because they did have a real problem in net and were able to address it by dealing a 2nd round pick.

 

[Bullfrog]

Maybe it's because I now little to nothing about the NBA, but that may have been one of the most unreadable articles I've ever seen.

Not just you; I felt the same.

 

[Kin]

Maybe it's because I now little to nothing about the NBA, but that may have been one of the most unreadable articles I've ever seen.

I think it's probably less that and more that because Simmons has been writing one version or another of the trade value column for 15 or so years there's a lot of assumed familiarity. Basically the idea is a list in descending order from 50-1 where Teams would trade the player ranked #50 for the one ranked #49 who they'd trade for the one ranked #48 and so on until #1 who, in Simmons estimation, his team wouldn't trade for anyone. 

 

[L K]

Maybe it's because I now little to nothing about the NBA, but that may have been one of the most unreadable articles I've ever seen.

I think it's probably less that and more that because Simmons has been writing one version or another of the trade value column for 15 or so years there's a lot of assumed familiarity. Basically the idea is a list in descending order from 50-1 where Teams would trade the player ranked #50 for the one ranked #49 who they'd trade for the one ranked #48 and so on until #1 who, in Simmons estimation, his team wouldn't trade for anyone.

Without reading his column, is Marcus Smart in the top 10?