Phil Kessel and trade value

[pmrules]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I think we are ok at goalie for now with Bernier, but yes, I would do either Quick or Price and then flip Bernier for some forward help.

For centers, Other than the obvious names (Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos, Malkin, Toews, Getzlaf - none of whom we could get in a even up trade), I think I reasonable 1 for 1 names include Duchene, Kopitar, Hall, MacKinnon (only because he hasn't played enough as yet), Giroux, and Seguin (ugghhh).

But where I would lean, and I've suggested this before as something I would actually support, is Kessel for a front line perennial Norris candidate - Doughty, Suter, Pietrangelo, Subban, Weber - all of which we would have to sweeten the pot in order to get for Kessel, and I'll throw Seth Jones into the mix.  A bonafide stud defenseman I think would significantly better this team and I would be willing to give Kessel up for that. 

 

[Bullfrog]

I agree a stud, norris-calibre defenseman is sorely needed, but I think having a player with a legit chance of hitting a point-per-game scoring rate each season is just as important.

 

[Kin]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I don't get the turning on Ovechkin. He's scored 83 goals the last two years compared to 57 for Kessel. That's not a small difference.

 

[losveratos]

no suter or parise?

I don't think you'd find a GM in the league that would trade a PPG, 4 years younger Kessel at 8mil for 8 yrs contract for a not PPG, 4 years older (obviously) Parise at 7.5mil for another 11 years. He'll be 41 when that contract ends and probably retired several years before that.

Terrible value for Kessel.

 

[losveratos]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I don't get the turning on Ovechkin. He's scored 83 goals the last two years compared to 57 for Kessel. That's not a small difference.

Sure... he was also a -35 with 51 goals last year. 24 of which came on the PP. So even if you add that to the +/- he's still a -11. Hell... somehow the next closest person to him on his own line was a -21. It's really insane how terrible he is in that regard.

If you do the same with Kessel. He was a -5 but 10 players on the team were worse than him in that regard. If you add his PPG's to his +/- you'd get a +3.

Kessel generally is a net positive for the team. Ovechkin is a glorious failure for helping his team win. It's gotta be some kinda record Ovi's +/- for the amount of goals he scores. Evidenced by his complete and utter lack of caring. Famously shown in this GIF.

Could you seriously ever see Kessel taking a shift off to that extent?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I don't get the turning on Ovechkin. He's scored 83 goals the last two years compared to 57 for Kessel. That's not a small difference.

Sure... he was also a -35 with 51 goals last year. 24 of which came on the PP. So even if you add that to the +/- he's still a -11. Hell... somehow the next closest person to him on his own line was a -21. It's really insane how terrible he is in that regard.

If you do the same with Kessel. He was a -5 but 10 players on the team were worse than him in that regard. If you add his PPG's to his +/- you'd get a +3.

Kessel generally is a net positive for the team. Ovechkin is a glorious failure for helping his team win. It's gotta be some kinda record Ovi's +/- for the amount of goals he scores. Evidenced by his complete and utter lack of caring. Famously shown in this GIF.

Could you seriously ever see Kessel taking a shift off to that extent?

Someone made a .gif like that with Crosby doing something similar, and he's been a minus once (-1 as a rookie) in his career.  It doesn't really prove anything.

 

[losveratos]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I don't get the turning on Ovechkin. He's scored 83 goals the last two years compared to 57 for Kessel. That's not a small difference.

Sure... he was also a -35 with 51 goals last year. 24 of which came on the PP. So even if you add that to the +/- he's still a -11. Hell... somehow the next closest person to him on his own line was a -21. It's really insane how terrible he is in that regard.

If you do the same with Kessel. He was a -5 but 10 players on the team were worse than him in that regard. If you add his PPG's to his +/- you'd get a +3.

Kessel generally is a net positive for the team. Ovechkin is a glorious failure for helping his team win. It's gotta be some kinda record Ovi's +/- for the amount of goals he scores. Evidenced by his complete and utter lack of caring. Famously shown in this GIF.

Could you seriously ever see Kessel taking a shift off to that extent?

Someone made a .gif like that with Crosby doing something similar, and he's been a minus once (-1 as a rookie) in his career.  It doesn't really prove anything.

That's why prior to the gif I put a few things called facts coinciding with my opinion of how the facts play out in relation to the player and how it would help our team.

I'm happy that the flashy gif caught your eye and that you have an amazing anecdote about crosby and his own personal gif which for whatever reason you chose not to supply.

However I would argue that you didn't address any part of my post that had merit to it. The gif was largely superfluous to begin with.

 

[Kin]

Sure... he was also a -35 with 51 goals last year. 24 of which came on the PP. So even if you add that to the +/- he's still a -11. Hell... somehow the next closest person to him on his own line was a -21. It's really insane how terrible he is in that regard.

If you do the same with Kessel. He was a -5 but 10 players on the team were worse than him in that regard. If you add his PPG's to his +/- you'd get a +3.

Kessel generally is a net positive for the team. Ovechkin is a glorious failure for helping his team win. It's gotta be some kinda record Ovi's +/- for the amount of goals he scores. Evidenced by his complete and utter lack of caring. Famously shown in this GIF.

I don't think +/- is a particularly good measurement of anything but, I mean, you don't even really have much of an argument if we are supposed to take +/- seriously. Ovechkin is a career +47. Kessel is a career -40. Ovechkin has only been a minus player in 3 of his 9 seasons. Contrary to your assertion that Kessel is generally a net positive, he's been a minus player in 7 of his 8 seasons.

Ovechkin has been as high as +45 in his career. Jonathan Toews has never been a +30. That's also higher than either Pavel Datsyuk or Patrice Bergeron have ever been. It's pretty hard to justify reading too much into +/-, especially one year of plus minus that is absolutely an aberration in a career.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Fun fact: Kessel and Ovechkin were on the ice for the exact same amount of even-strength goals against last season.

 

[Deebo]

Fun fact: Kessel and Ovechkin were on the ice for the exact same amount of even-strength goals against last season.

Kessel played 226 more ES minutes than Ovechkin.

 

[bustaheims]

Fun fact: Kessel and Ovechkin were on the ice for the exact same amount of even-strength goals against last season.

He really was basically a one man army for the Caps last season. His 2 most frequent ES line mates combined for a total of 14 ES goals, whereas Kessel's potted 35.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Fun fact: Kessel and Ovechkin were on the ice for the exact same amount of even-strength goals against last season.

Kessel played 226 more ES minutes than Ovechkin.

Yeah, I'm certainly not going to argue that Ovechkin is a defensive dynamo. I was just showing how flawed +/- is. Kessel and Ovechkin each showed a similar amount of even-strength goals individually and were on the ice for the same amount of even-strength goals against. And yet Ovechkin's +/- was an absurd 30 lower than Kessel's. And like busta said, the reason behind that was likely because of how awful Ovechkin's linemates were at even-strength last season. His on-ice teammates shooting percentage was 3.8%, which is crazy low, 7th worst percentage in the entire league.

 

[2badknees]

I wouldn't trade Kessel for Ovechkin.

Which one is more likely to pull a Kovalchuk? Or use the KHL in negotiations? These are real considerations, imo.

 

[Kin]

I wouldn't trade Kessel for Ovechkin.

Which one is more likely to pull a Kovalchuk? Or use the KHL in negotiations? These are real considerations, imo.

Ovechkin is signed until he's 36 years old so it's not like what he does in "negotiations" will really play much of a factor in terms of his value to the Leafs. He's probably got one or maybe two more contracts in him when he'll be well past his prime. Kessel's more or less the same.

 

[Highlander]

I wouldn't trade Kessel for anyone.  Except JVR and he is one the team already. LOL

 

[losveratos]

Sure... he was also a -35 with 51 goals last year. 24 of which came on the PP. So even if you add that to the +/- he's still a -11. Hell... somehow the next closest person to him on his own line was a -21. It's really insane how terrible he is in that regard.

If you do the same with Kessel. He was a -5 but 10 players on the team were worse than him in that regard. If you add his PPG's to his +/- you'd get a +3.

Kessel generally is a net positive for the team. Ovechkin is a glorious failure for helping his team win. It's gotta be some kinda record Ovi's +/- for the amount of goals he scores. Evidenced by his complete and utter lack of caring. Famously shown in this GIF.

I don't think +/- is a particularly good measurement of anything but, I mean, you don't even really have much of an argument if we are supposed to take +/- seriously. Ovechkin is a career +47. Kessel is a career -40. Ovechkin has only been a minus player in 3 of his 9 seasons. Contrary to your assertion that Kessel is generally a net positive, he's been a minus player in 7 of his 8 seasons.

Ovechkin has been as high as +45 in his career. Jonathan Toews has never been a +30. That's also higher than either Pavel Datsyuk or Patrice Bergeron have ever been. It's pretty hard to justify reading too much into +/-, especially one year of plus minus that is absolutely an aberration in a career.

I think you have to and can only read into +/- as an individual team stat. Not NHL wide. This is where I was making my point about Ovechkin being the worst on his entire team and Kessel being middle of the pack.

It's impressive in my mind that Ovechkin managed so many goals while simultaneously being at least partially responsible for giving up the most goals on the team.

Comparing their career stats in that category is useless. You can only compare them to their teammates. This is where last year Ovechkin showed us that he can score goals, but not even close to how many he lets the other team do it. More so than every other player that suited up for the capitols.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's impressive in my mind that Ovechkin managed so many goals while simultaneously being at least partially responsible for giving up the most goals on the team.

Once again, you can say the same thing about Kessel. They both led their respective teams in goals against with 61 (although as Deebo mentioned Kessel had more TOI, and also was technically tied with JVR in that regard).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I don't get the turning on Ovechkin. He's scored 83 goals the last two years compared to 57 for Kessel. That's not a small difference.

Sure... he was also a -35 with 51 goals last year. 24 of which came on the PP. So even if you add that to the +/- he's still a -11. Hell... somehow the next closest person to him on his own line was a -21. It's really insane how terrible he is in that regard.

If you do the same with Kessel. He was a -5 but 10 players on the team were worse than him in that regard. If you add his PPG's to his +/- you'd get a +3.

Kessel generally is a net positive for the team. Ovechkin is a glorious failure for helping his team win. It's gotta be some kinda record Ovi's +/- for the amount of goals he scores. Evidenced by his complete and utter lack of caring. Famously shown in this GIF.

Could you seriously ever see Kessel taking a shift off to that extent?

Someone made a .gif like that with Crosby doing something similar, and he's been a minus once (-1 as a rookie) in his career.  It doesn't really prove anything.

That's why prior to the gif I put a few things called facts coinciding with my opinion of how the facts play out in relation to the player and how it would help our team.

I'm happy that the flashy gif caught your eye and that you have an amazing anecdote about crosby and his own personal gif which for whatever reason you chose not to supply.

However I would argue that you didn't address any part of my post that had merit to it. The gif was largely superfluous to begin with.

Then one might consider that I was only replying to that .gif aspect of your post and the subsequent comment on it.

But if you really feel the need for me to respond about why his +/- isn't particularly useful in commenting on his defensive ability or commitment, these are some thoughts to consider.  Ovechkin was -17 at the time of this column, and it goes into numerous factors (SH%, SV%) that would have significantly altered his +/-:

What's odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkin's contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual player's control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events.

...

So, let's take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17.

First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isn't making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%.

You're really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5.

Taking away Ovechkin's 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals.

At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkin's defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals' roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals.

So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice?

According to Some Kind of Ninja's Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkin's most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isn't a huge difference; goaltenders aren't suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings.

On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkin's best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice.

Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldn't stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=442920

 

[losveratos]

When was the last time someone ended the year 1st in the NHL in goals and 3rd last in +/-?

Even if you take the stat with a gigantic grain of salt... something is fishy there. And I don't want it near my team.

You must see that something is strange there though right? You can blame away some or even a lot of it. But think about this...
Since the N.H.L. started tracking players? plus/minus figures in 1967-68, Ovechkin is the only player to lead the league in goals with such a poor plus/minus rating.

So I guess all I can say is that for 1.5mil more per year. I wouldn't trade Kessel 1 - 1 for Ovi. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Kin]

I think you have to and can only read into +/- as an individual team stat. Not NHL wide. This is where I was making my point about Ovechkin being the worst on his entire team and Kessel being middle of the pack.

Even still, it's a one year thing. Ovechkin has had multiple seasons where he's been among the leaders on his team in +/- and Kessel has essentially never had that. The best +/- that Kessel has ever had is in his last year in Boston where he was tied for 6th, 14 back of the team leader. Meanwhile Ovechkin was tied for the best +/- on the Caps in 2010-2011. He was 2nd on the team in 2009-20010. He was tied for 1st again in 2007-2008.

So the idea that Ovechkin's +/- last year was anything other than an aberration just doesn't hold up. If his defensive effort/effect on goals scored 5 on 5 was so great, it's never showed up until last year.

Comparing their career stats in that category is useless. You can only compare them to their teammates. This is where last year Ovechkin showed us that he can score goals, but not even close to how many he lets the other team do it. More so than every other player that suited up for the capitols.

I really don't understand how you can in one breath argue that +/- is a statistic that only has meaning in a team context because of how dependent it is on teammates and then say that you can use it to make individual judgments about a player. Ovechkin does not have a record of having a poor +/- relative to the rest of the Capitals. He just doesn't. To say otherwise is basing the entirety of your evaluation of a career that includes three Hart trophies on one season.

And the reality is that lots of players have had one season aberrations in their +/-. Steve Yzerman had years where he was among the lowest +/- on the Red Wings after seasons where he was among the best. 17 Maple Leafs had a higher +/- than Mats Sundin in 2002-2003. Mario Lemieux had the best +/- on the Penguins in 88-89 and then the 3rd worst in 89-90.

So I'm not really sure what you're arguing. If you look historically at players who are pretty comparable to Ovechkin, guys like Jagr and Bure who similarly had incredible offensive skills but who were frequently called out for their lack of attention and effort on defensel you see a lot of swings in their +/-. Some years they led their team, some years they were near the bottom. So what do you think is happening there? Did these guys intermittently try hard on defense? Did their teams game plan around their defensive lapses some years to great effect and then just decided to abandon that the next year?

It's easy to look at one number in isolation and say that it means something significant. -35 is a low number, there's no question about it, but unless you can explain the variations on the stat within Ovechkin's career and how it actually corresponds to something that changed in Ovechkin's game from year to year it really just seems like a pretty blatant case of cherry-picking to try and make a point.