Phil Kessel

[L K]

See him backchecking last night?

I just don't understand the grief this guy gets.

I don't get why a player suddenly starts doing something and suddenly you act like he always did it.  Kessel has always been a guy with a great shot who scores 30 goals, but only until the later half of the last year did he start doing it.  That is what people took issue with was the lazy defensive play that would really be apparent when he went on the inevitable 10-12 game goal-less droughts.  He always wasn't great at using his teammates to put up points when his shot wasn't getting through. 

Very few people have issue with the way Kessel has played the first two games of the year. 

 

[seahawk]

I didn't watch all of the game, but what stood out for me was the fore-checking in the Ottawa end when the Sens had the goalie pulled.

 

[Kin]

See him backchecking last night?

I just don't understand the grief this guy gets.

I don't get why a player suddenly starts doing something and suddenly you act like he always did it.  Kessel has always been a guy with a great shot who scores 30 goals, but only until the later half of the last year did he start doing it.  That is what people took issue with was the lazy defensive play that would really be apparent when he went on the inevitable 10-12 game goal-less droughts.  He always wasn't great at using his teammates to put up points when his shot wasn't getting through. 

Very few people have issue with the way Kessel has played the first two games of the year.

Well, exactly. Ignoring the trade for a second the issue with Kessel while a Leaf has just been one of consistency. He's always had stretches where he looks like a world beater followed by stretches where you'd swear he won a "Let a Fan Play" contest.

It's a reputation he's not going to shake until he really emerges as an elite player.

 

[Mack674]

See him backchecking last night?

I just don't understand the grief this guy gets.

I don't get why a player suddenly starts doing something and suddenly you act like he always did it.  Kessel has always been a guy with a great shot who scores 30 goals, but only until the later half of the last year did he start doing it.  That is what people took issue with was the lazy defensive play that would really be apparent when he went on the inevitable 10-12 game goal-less droughts.  He always wasn't great at using his teammates to put up points when his shot wasn't getting through. 

Very few people have issue with the way Kessel has played the first two games of the year.

Well, exactly. Ignoring the trade for a second the issue with Kessel while a Leaf has just been one of consistency. He's always had stretches where he looks like a world beater followed by stretches where you'd swear he won a "Let a Fan Play" contest.

It's a reputation he's not going to shake until he really emerges as an elite player.

I think this could be the year he does just that, if he continues to play the way he has the first two games. He didnt get much in the way of the scoresheet in the Montreal game but in both contests his passing and playmaking were much better and smarter than last year and he backchecks as well or better than anyone else on the team.

He's rounded out his weaknesses pretty well, I thought he looked better than he ever has so far. If he can get Connolly to play with him with some consistency, he could be in for a great year. Here's hoping.

 

[McPwnage]

I think Kessel with be on a line with Lombardi centering him by the years end

 

[princedpw]

I think Kessel with be on a line with Lombardi centering him by the years end

Why?  I can imagine him lining up with Lombardi later in the year if Connolly gets injured.  I wouldn't pick Lombardi consistently over Connolly until I see Connolly failing to click chemistry-wise with Kessel.  Most people seem to think that Connolly is pretty good at dishing the puck.  Don't you want to wait to see how that skill plays with Kessel?

To add to that, I'm hoping that a 3rd line of Lombardi-Bozak-Armstrong will work later in the year.

 

[Tigger]

The second last goal, was that a pass from Colborne across the net?

Versteeg.

Ah, thanks!

 

[cw]

On the old site, I posted stats of how many players go through goal scoring slumps of 7 games or more. It happens to nearly all of them - including Sundin who was one of the most consistent scorers in NHL history.

Part of the problem is that a goal scorer is the guy who has to finish the play. Guys who rack up assists don't go through perceived slumps as  much because they can rely on a number of finishers so the peaks and valleys don't tend to be as extreme and nearly twice as many assists get dished out as goals - they're kind of twice as easy to come by.

In my mind, in terms of goal scoring, to score 32 goals playing half a season with Joey Crabb and a bunch of his season with a struggling Bozak, who may struggle to hang on to the 3rd line center spot this season, is a credit to Kessel. I don't think it's an accident that he eventually righted himself with Lupul who replaced Crabb. 

If you're a NHL dman defending against the Crabb-Kessel line and devoting a lot of your attention to Joey Crabb, your career in the NHL is going to be a short one. Lupul and Connolly pose a different problem for a dman than Crabb & Bozak.

Very few NHLers have scored 30+ goals in each of the last three seasons so to me, Kessel is already among the 'elite' and most consistent goal scorers in this league. What one's definition of 'elite' is and how "elite" Kessel will be is the only question that remains in my mind.

As for his defensive play, I've never thought he'd be great as a two way player so some of the complaint about his play seems based upon preconceived expectations. He didn't play that way in college. He didn't play that way for the Bruins. He's never been that strong on the puck. He's not great at finishing his checks in part because he's never been a physical player. He's close to a lightweight physically - in spite of what his stats might say. But there's also no question that there's room for improvement. He could imitate Matthew Lombardi with his speed and use that to forecheck better than he has for example.

But to me, his role is a little different than Lombardi's has been for much of Lombardi's career. And his circumstances have been somewhat different in Toronto. Lombardi became his teams top PKer in Calgary and was also that in Phoenix. As the center, particularly in a center high defence, Lombardi has tended to have more of a defensive role.

Phil's primary function is to score goals. When the clock is ticking down and your team is behind, risks have to be taken at the expense of defence. Phil is the guy you want taking those risks because his offensive talents give him the best chance of making something happen. So often in these struggling Leafs seasons past, he isn't looking to play defence per se. He's looking to cheat, take risks and score because he's the most able and his team has been desperate for  it.

How many times did we see the Leafs behind and Sundin and/or Mogilny loitering up by the blue line hoping their D could recover the puck and headman it to them so they could get a scoring chance to get the game close or tie it up?

An area I'd like see them explore is Kessel on the PK. If the Leafs are down and on the PK, he and Lombardi, the two fastest skaters on the team, could be quite a scoring threat. It wasn't too good for Sundin & Mogilny in similar circumstances and they made some teams pay with shorthanded goals. Beyond practice, in games where the Leafs have a decent cushion, it wouldn't be a bad thing to test out and give Phil some experience.

Last night, when he was interviewed, they asked him why he was down behind the Sens empty net near the end of the game trying to kill the clock. He said it was because this season, his coach has asked him to forecheck deeper. Some of the change in his first two games of this season came about because his coach asked him to change what he was doing and he did so. It's hard to find fault with that and I guess one might ask Wilson why he didn't ask him to do so when he showed up in Toronto.

Kessel's always going to have problems being perceived as a great defensive player because some folks will have unrealistic expectations comparing him to a Selke winner and because he doesn't tick that way, never has and very likely never will.

 

[slapshot]

I have no problem with Kessel or the picks given up for him. Neither Brian Burke or anyone else had a crystal ball when making the deal and I didn't hear anyone at the time picking the Leafs for second last. To me the winner of the deal is the one who gets the best overall player. Whether Sequin turns out to have a better career than Kessel is questionable. The rest are spare parts.
All GMs win some deals, lose others or break even. To focus on one "perceived" lost deal, without even real evidence yet, is pretty sad.
I think Kessel is improving in a variety of facets of the his game and he's only 22 for crying out loud. There aren't too many in the league with his skill set. Hopefully, he can have a strong season and quelch the critics for a while.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Kessel's always going to have problems being perceived as a great defensive player because some folks will have unrealistic expectations comparing him to a Selke winner and because he doesn't tick that way, never has and very likely never will.

Pretty much. I agree and I'm fine with him the way he is, scoring goals. The best we can hope for is that he scores more and or limits the amount of games his goalless streaks go.

 

[princedpw]

On the old site, I posted stats of how many players go through goal scoring slumps of 7 games or more. It happens to nearly all of them - including Sundin who was one of the most consistent scorers in NHL history.

I think a huge part of the problem is that we are often fooled by randomness.  We just aren't very good at calculating stats, odds and probabilities. 

A 41-goal scorer is certainly considered elite these day.  Last year there were only 5 of them in the league.  Assuming such scorer played in every game and assuming that player never, ever scored more than one goal in a game and that they were so emotionally perfect that they put in identical effort every single game then we would find that they have a 50% chance per game of scoring a goal.  Even under such perfect circumstances, however, you would not see that player scoring every other game.

Kessel scored 32 goals.  If he were emotionally perfect, committing identical effort to every single game, luck would dictate that he has a 39% chance of scoring any particular.

I just ran a very quick simulation assuming a player (like Kessel) has exactly 39% chance of scoring in any particular game.  I ran the 82-game simulation 10 times.  I recorded the longest streak in each 82-game season.  I saw longest streak ranging from 5 games to 13 games with an average long streak of 8.6 games.

So Kessel's goalless streak of 15-16 games or whatever it was is longer than (roughly) predicted by my little (probably statistically not significant) simulation.  So he likely isn't a steel-hearted automaton.  But if we see him go on a goalless streak of 8-9 games again this season, that is probably right on target for exactly what one should expect -- it isn't a result of him putting in an inconsistent effort.

 

[Moot Point]

Not sure if he can maintain his defensive responsibilities through the entire season but he has done some pretty good backchecking these past two games.  Took away some scoring chances when he sped back into the defensive zone.

 

[cw]

... I saw longest streak ranging from 5 games to 13 games with an average long streak of 8.6 games.

So Kessel's goalless streak of 15-16 games or whatever it was is longer than (roughly) predicted by my little (probably statistically not significant) simulation.  So he likely isn't a steel-hearted automaton.  But if we see him go on a goalless streak of 8-9 games again this season, that is probably right on target for exactly what one should expect -- it isn't a result of him putting in an inconsistent effort.

His goalless streak was 14 games.

Sundin's worst streak in more recent Leafs games was 12 games or 1 goal in 20 games.

Last season, Ovechkin had a stretch of 19 games scoring only 2 goals with 8 and 9 game goalless stretches during that period.

Last season, Kovalchuk had a stretch of 20 games scoring only 2 goals with with 7 and 8 game goalless stretches back to back.

And in my opinion, probably Kovalchuk & most definitely Ovechkin were surrounded by superior offensive players than Bozak & Crabb and the Leafs offensive dmen. I firmly believe that the skill quality of those surrounding a given player affect that given player's ability to score. And in my opinion, and likely the opinion of many, many others, Ovechkin & Kovalchuk are definitely two of the elite goalscorers in the game today.

Goalless streaks happen to the elite goalscorers and nearly always have throughout NHL history. And again, most of them happen while the elite are not playing with scoring slugs as weak as Bozak & Crabb were last season.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Rick Nash springs to mind as someone who tends to have comparable goalless streaks.

 

[Kin]

The real problem with any discussion of Phil Kessel is that some people can't accept that Phil Kessel is always going to be judged as a hockey player and not entirely as a goal scorer. When Mats Sundin was going through a goal-scoring slump odds were he was still as adept as ever at setting guys up. The point in both my and LK's posts is that Kessel when he's in his goal scoring slumps, is a very ineffective player and not, as is quickly assumed, that Kessel's goal scoring slumps are historic and unique.

Any player who goes through stretches of 8-10 games where he's not really contributing in anyway is going to be called on it. If you look at some of the names being kicked around here, Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, even Sundin in that 1 goal(and 18 assists) over 20 game stretch, all received justifiable criticism in those stretches.

But, of course, nobody looks at those guys and says "They need to improve their consistency, right?". Well, yeah, but that's because those guys are for the most part PPG players. Kessel isn't. That's probably around the level of offense a hockey player has to produce in order to avoid criticism with their play. Kovalchuk, who had a very statistically similar season to Kessel, and who is if anything a more talented goal scorer than Phil Kessel isn't being treated with unreserved praise by Devils fans despite also being a member of the newly formed and largely nonsensical 30 goals a year in the past three years club that some people think has bought Kessel his ticket to Valhalla. Almost to a man that I've seen they say Kovalchuk has to improve substantially in order for the Devils to be successful and for fans to be happy with his play.

That's the standard Phil Kessel is being held to and contrary to some assertions here it's pretty consistent. If you're an almost solely offensive player and you're scoring 60 or so points a year, there'll be some criticism thrown your way. Outside of that, a player would have to improve other aspects of his game to become a guy who can go through those goalless stretches and still be contributing to a win even if he's not hitting the back of the net. That's what separates a Phil Kessel from, say, Mike Richards.

I know it's largely futile at this point but this would be a very different discussion if Phil Kessel was hitting everything that moved, winning draws and using his speed on the PK. He doesn't do those things. That in and of itself doesn't make him a bad player and that's not the criticism. He's a good player. The criticism is that he goes through stretches where he's not a very good player because he's not doing much of anything and that he needs to tighten that up somehow, either by scoring more or rounding out his game.

 

[TML fan]

I think the idea that Kessel doesn't use his teammates is off-base.

On raw stats alone, it's simply inaccurate. He was 2nd on the team in assists (after Kaberle left) last season. He was also playing with guys who had less goals than him combined despite his 14 game slump. He could have been setting them up left right and centre and we'd never know because the puck never went in the net. I could flip the argument around and say that Kessel's teammates aren't using HIM effectively and that's why he's scoring less, and I don't think it would be any less valid. I don't think we should expect Kessel to stop trying to score just because he isn't. That's what he's best at. I'm not saying he should go 1-on-3 every time he touches the puck (and maybe he did last year, I don't know. It's too subjective to say either way), but if he has an opportunity to shoot, I want him to take it. At the end of the day, he's not really doing anything different when the puck is going in and nobody is complaining that he's not using his teammates.

Kessel undoubtedly gets frustrated when he's not scoring, and knows he's not helping the team the way he should, and that probably makes him push even harder at the expense of other aspects of his game. He definitely needs to work on the defensive side of his game, so that when he hits those droughts, he's still contributing.

I don't expect Kessel will ever be a well rounded player like Iginla or Richards. That physical aspect is just not part of his game, and as a big Kessel fan, I accept that he will never be considered an elite player...goalscorer perhaps. All that said, it's definitely fair to judge him on his all around game and not just on his goalscoring.

 

[Kin]

I think the idea that Kessel doesn't use his teammates is off-base.

I don't disagree with your post much but I think it's important to point out here that I'm not saying Kessel "doesn't use his teammates" but rather that he's not a great set-up guy or passer. He's not terrible, he's above average, but it's not a big strength of his game. I think we see that when he's on the PP and he's got the puck and it's not a question of him outskating anyone to generate a chance. He tends to look a little lost there.

On raw stats alone, it's simply inaccurate. He was 2nd on the team in assists (after Kaberle left) last season. He was also playing with guys who had less goals than him combined despite his 14 game slump. He could have been setting them up left right and centre and we'd never know because the puck never went in the net. I could flip the argument around and say that Kessel's teammates aren't using HIM effectively and that's why he's scoring less, and I don't think it would be any less valid.

I think this is a case where you're letting the "raw" stats say more than they really are. He had 32 assists last season. Putting aside where that ranks him on the Leafs, which isn't all that reflective on him as an individual, and just looking at it as a raw number those 32 assists had him tied for 79th in the league. That's probably a kind assessment though, as it's just a total and not a per game which would probably drop him lower. So, again, a good total but not a particularly great one.

It isn't about wanting Kessel to change his game or being disappointed that Kessel isn't the return of Gordie Howe. It's just an acknowledgment that Kessel, if he's going to be a premiere player on a good team, is going to have to be more than what he's been.

 

[Kin]

I have no problem with Kessel or the picks given up for him. Neither Brian Burke or anyone else had a crystal ball when making the deal...

I'm not sure which part of this argument I like better; the idea that several posters on this very board have magical psychic powers or that it required magical psychic powers to see that the team's goalie was Vesa Toskala.

Whether Sequin turns out to have a better career than Kessel is questionable. The rest are spare parts.

The #9 and #32 picks in a draft aren't spare parts.

 

[leafplasma]

I think last year we really started to see Kessel mature as a player.  We all need to remember a couple of things when comparing him to some of the elite players in the league, now and in the past. These have been mentioned countless times but tend to be easily forgotten 1) his age as we are just starting to see his growth lately 2) his linemates and this reflects not only on his goal totals but also on his assist totals.

I mean it isn't fair to compare Kessel to Ovechkin but Ovechkin at 25 if placed on a line with Crabb and Bozak last year in Toronto, would you really expect him to put up much better numbers then Kessel did.  I would expect similar goalless droughts, I would expect similar defensive gaffs at times trying to do it all himself.  It was only when he had a decent forward in Lupul line up along side him that his numbers shot up and he looked more consistent with a better all around game.  You just can't expect a young player like Kessel to be able to play along side slugs like Sundin did at times in his career.  You will find that with both age and more of a supportive cast around him, that Kessel will be able to focus more on the defensive aspects of his game while the offense will just happen due to his god given skills.  I think we are already starting to see this, so enjoy Leaf fans rather than ridicule.

 

[princedpw]

That's the standard Phil Kessel is being held to and contrary to some assertions here it's pretty consistent.

It is certainly clear that is the standard you are holding Kessel to.  It doesn't seem like that is the standard everyone else on the board is holding him to... which is fine.  It is bound to happen that different people will be more or less satisfied with different levels of play.

By the way, there is something Kessel does when he doesn't score -- it's draw good defenders.  That sets his teammates up against weaker defenders, improving their chance to score.