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Playoffs Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (A3)

CarltonTheBear said:
https://twitter.com/markzwol/status/1650879409212071936
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?Knies is certainly not coming out"

I can't imagine there was much debate on that.
He does not look out of place on this roster - at both ends of the ice.

I suspect that the only place Bunting has been decent statistically has been on Matthews line.
Jarnkrok has been playing well there (but his skating and underrated faceoff ability would allow him to contribute on other lines).
To me, Bunting seems like a more rugged version of Sundin's Hoglund: put him on another line and his offensive contributions seem to become questionable.
Buntings penalty mins/GP is about 3 times worse than the next regular on the Leafs roster. He did tend to draw as much as he got but I wouldn't count on that after his falling out with the refs while against the TBay PP.
 
Frank E said:
Also, Bunting doesn't kill penalties, and ZAR does a bit.
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15 seconds (total) of PK for ZAR these playoffs. 9 seconds for Lafferty. PK rotation goes Marner-Kampf, ROR-Acciari, Kerfoot-Jarnkrok.
 
On another topic, the position the Leafs find themselves in has made the Keep/Fire Dubas question rather simple.  If they blow this series, there's no way they can keep him.  If they don't, there's almost no way they can fire him.  I hedge that last remark a bit ... I guess if they got absolutely blown out in R2 they might can him.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
On another topic, the position the Leafs find themselves in has made the Keep/Fire Dubas question rather simple.  If they blow this series, there's no way they can keep him.  If they don't, there's almost no way they can fire him.  I hedge that last remark a bit ... I guess if they got absolutely blown out in R2 they might can him.
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If he wants to stay, that is. I can imagine a lot of people in his position with significant options (as rumored) would resent being held at lame duck status all year.

 
CarltonTheBear said:
Frank E said:
Also, Bunting doesn't kill penalties, and ZAR does a bit.
Click to expand...

15 seconds (total) of PK for ZAR these playoffs. 9 seconds for Lafferty. PK rotation goes Marner-Kampf, ROR-Acciari, Kerfoot-Jarnkrok.
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Maybe they put Bunting in for Lafferty, and they limit his minutes on 4th line.  It's a risk, so I don't know if you do it, hard to change a winning lineup
 
If the Leafs look to advanced stats to help with this decision, there are two ways to view performance:

(a) ZAR is struggling slightly more than Lafferty against the TB forecheck: 5v5 xG% across 4 games so far shows the team is hemmed in most frequently when ZAR is on the ice
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or, (b) maybe we say the 4th line only needs to win a faceoff, pass the puck to a defender, and then make room for a line change. Here 5v5 xG% of the next 5 seconds after a player leaves the ice shows ZAR is completely ineffective at this against TB's structures so far and Lafferty is actually doing quite well. Being able to successfully hand off the puck to a Matthews line, or ROR line, or Tavares line is critical in a series like this.
mnNbO5A.png


(On an unrelated positive note, it looks like Knies is very smart at choosing the right moments to leave the ice)
 
No offense, but drawing any sort of inference about a 4th liner's effectiveness on a relatively low minute 4 game sample regarding what happens immediately after they get off the ice seems incredibly shaky.
 
Cooper's line is that Vasilevskiy isn't making mistakes and nobody stops any of the tips last night.  Fair enough.  He's putting the onus on the defense allowing the Leafs to be in Vasi's kitchen too much.

It's been a weird series.  Two blowouts and two improbable comebacks.
 
I don?t think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don?t need any further encouragement.

We?ll need him later in the series or the later rounds.
 
Arn said:
I don?t think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don?t need any further encouragement.

We?ll need him later in the series or the later rounds.
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So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.
 
Guilt Trip said:
Arn said:
I don?t think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don?t need any further encouragement.

We?ll need him later in the series or the later rounds.
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So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.
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I?m torn on both sides of the argument tbh.

But I genuinely don?t trust the officials to call stuff against him.

I feel like playing him could over shadow the game and change how the leafs end up playing also if they end up having to compensate in the silly stuff rather than focus on playing.
 
Arn said:
Guilt Trip said:
Arn said:
I don?t think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don?t need any further encouragement.

We?ll need him later in the series or the later rounds.
Click to expand...
So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.
Click to expand...

I?m torn on both sides of the argument tbh.

But I genuinely don?t trust the officials to call stuff against him.

I feel like playing him could over shadow the game and change how the leafs end up playing also if they end up having to compensate in the silly stuff rather than focus on playing.
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I don't think T Bay gets into the silly stuff because it really hasn't worked for them. They need to play a smothering game and have no time to worry about Bunting with the season on the line.
Tough call though for Keefe.
 
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