Playoffs Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins

[herman]

This actually explains why it has taken a bit of time for Knies to realize he could wreck just about anybody on the ice.

Treliving would do really well to get him signed to an 8-year contract extension as soon as he can this summer.

It wouldn't bother me for Knies to get exactly the Clayton Keller deal even though he doesn't have the matching production yet (8 x 7.15M AAV) given the rising cap. He is a better Tom Wilson without the injuring others baggage.

 

[Zee]

So I didn't watch 1 second of game 5, also put my phone into do not disturb mode so I got no updates, and look, the Leafs won in OT!

So, do I not watch the series for games 6 (and potentially 7)?  What say you?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Treliving would do really well to get him signed to an 8-year contract extension as soon as he can this summer.

It wouldn't bother me for Knies to get exactly the Clayton Keller deal even though he doesn't have the matching production yet (8 x 7.15M AAV) given the rising cap. He is a better Tom Wilson without the injuring others baggage.

That feels pretty hefty for a guy with one 35-point season under his belt. I was thinking more like $5-6mil. Although the cap when his 2nd contract kicks in will likely be $90mil or above so contracts numbers once that happens will probably be a little jarring at first.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Treliving would do really well to get him signed to an 8-year contract extension as soon as he can this summer.

It wouldn't bother me for Knies to get exactly the Clayton Keller deal even though he doesn't have the matching production yet (8 x 7.15M AAV) given the rising cap. He is a better Tom Wilson without the injuring others baggage.

That feels pretty hefty for a guy with one 35-point season under his belt. I was thinking more like $5-6mil. Although the cap when his 2nd contract kicks in will likely be $90mil or above so contracts numbers once that happens will probably be a little jarring at first.

I think a starting comparable player may be Nic Paul on TBay... he makes 3.1M so  I think he signs no problem at 8years, 5M

 

[Highlander]

So I didn't watch 1 second of game 5, also put my phone into do not disturb mode so I got no updates, and look, the Leafs won in OT!

So, do I not watch the series for games 6 (and potentially 7)?  What say you?

Lets all chip in so Zee doesn't watch another Leaf game.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think a starting comparable player may be Nic Paul on TBay... he makes 3.1M so  I think he signs no problem at 8years, 5M

I really don't think Paul and Knies are comparable in any way aside from size. If we're looking at Tampa specifically then Hagel is the guy who really sticks out.

Knies is bigger of course, but they play essentially the same top-6 complimentary winger role. Knies had 35 points in his rookie season, Hagel was on pace for 37 points. Hagel then went from 44 points in year 2 to 64 points in year 3 to 75 points in year 4. I could see Knies having a similar career progression.

Hagel signed a 8-year, $6.5mil AAV deal after his 3rd season in the NHL. That was coming off a 30-goal, 64-point season though. Hagel was older when he signed that deal after having signed a 3-year, $1.5mil post ELC deal where he only spent 1 year of his ELC in the NHL. He also had a 25 goal season and a 30 goal, 64 point season under his belt. So was further along in the progression of his career than Knies was. But to Knies' credit he's bigger, younger, and has more of a pedigree.

All in all I still see the Hagel deal as the absolute ceiling for an extension if they decide to get it done this summer. Especially since it's certainly possible Knies skips that 44-point Y2 Hagel has and jumps straight to being a 60-point player next season. But still based off his body of work in his rookie season it should be very possible to get him for less.

 

[herman]

To entice Knies to sign for 8 off the hop, it has to be an overpay up front. And I think his agent knows the LW is wide open on the Leafs. Otherwise, they just ride out a bridge and see what they can make of it. 6 is likely the minimum under the current cap. If he does it for something in 6, Knies is a hero team-first guy.

 

[Zee]

So I didn't watch 1 second of game 5, also put my phone into do not disturb mode so I got no updates, and look, the Leafs won in OT!

So, do I not watch the series for games 6 (and potentially 7)?  What say you?

Lets all chip in so Zee doesn't watch another Leaf game.

Call me extremely jaded but I've seen this script before.  Leafs come back to force game 7 only to be outclassed and lose. I can't stand watching it.

 

[azzurri63]

Treliving would do really well to get him signed to an 8-year contract extension as soon as he can this summer.

It wouldn't bother me for Knies to get exactly the Clayton Keller deal even though he doesn't have the matching production yet (8 x 7.15M AAV) given the rising cap. He is a better Tom Wilson without the injuring others baggage.

That feels pretty hefty for a guy with one 35-point season under his belt. I was thinking more like $5-6mil. Although the cap when his 2nd contract kicks in will likely be $90mil or above so contracts numbers once that happens will probably be a little jarring at first.

I agree let's stop with the overpayments with this team. Love the kid but at times this season was disappointing. Let the kid gain valuable experience, grow his game and realize that he can be a dominating presence out there. He played top minutes with 2 of the best offensive players in the league and didn't light it up. He's a keeper but I agree with you 5-6 tops on a decent termed deal.

 

[cabber24]

So I didn't watch 1 second of game 5, also put my phone into do not disturb mode so I got no updates, and look, the Leafs won in OT!

So, do I not watch the series for games 6 (and potentially 7)?  What say you?

Lets all chip in so Zee doesn't watch another Leaf game.

Call me extremely jaded but I've seen this script before.  Leafs come back to force game 7 only to be outclassed and lose. I can't stand watching it.

I have a hard time watching... I assume the worst. Coming back from losing the series 3-1 is very unlikely. I will attempt to enjoy one game at a time.

 

[bustaheims]

As long as they put up an effort similar to last night, I'll be pretty content. Not necessarily happy, but content that they didn't just roll over.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

[youtube]awDSksyUi6c[/youtube]

The segment here from Steve Valiquette before game 5 is excellent. It covers goaltending and specifically the differences between Samsonov and Woll.

Starts at around 49:30 if you need to skip to it.

 

[Guilt Trip]

[youtube]awDSksyUi6c[/youtube]

The segment here from Steve Valiquette before game 5 is excellent. It covers goaltending and specifically the differences between Samsonov and Woll.

Starts at around 49:30 if you need to skip to it.

I only saw part of it at the end but I'm going to guess Woll was the better choice all along.
Anyone remember hearing that the Leafs PK was something like 81% with Woll in net and 73% with anyone not named Woll?
Love Sammy the person, not the goalie.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

[youtube]awDSksyUi6c[/youtube]

The segment here from Steve Valiquette before game 5 is excellent. It covers goaltending and specifically the differences between Samsonov and Woll.

Starts at around 49:30 if you need to skip to it.

I only saw part of it at the end but I'm going to guess Woll was the better choice all along.
Anyone remember hearing that the Leafs PK was something like 81% with Woll in net and 73% with anyone not named Woll?
Love Sammy the person, not the goalie.

I mean that's the conclusion yes. It's not the usual narrative tripe though. He comes with receipts, breakdowns on different types of saves etc made by each goalie.

 

[Guilt Trip]

[youtube]awDSksyUi6c[/youtube]

The segment here from Steve Valiquette before game 5 is excellent. It covers goaltending and specifically the differences between Samsonov and Woll.

Starts at around 49:30 if you need to skip to it.

I only saw part of it at the end but I'm going to guess Woll was the better choice all along.
Anyone remember hearing that the Leafs PK was something like 81% with Woll in net and 73% with anyone not named Woll?
Love Sammy the person, not the goalie.

I mean that's the conclusion yes. It's not the usual narrative tripe though. He comes with receipts, breakdowns on different types of saves etc made by each goalie.

He's the guru of all that stuff.
I just watched it...question  is did the Leafs have this info?  And if they did, heads should roll for picking Sammy. I've said it many times, they didn't start Woll enough after injury. 3 out of the last 10 was plain stupid. He was the #1 guy before the injury. Oh well hopefully he can keep it going.

 

[cabber24]

[youtube]awDSksyUi6c[/youtube]

The segment here from Steve Valiquette before game 5 is excellent. It covers goaltending and specifically the differences between Samsonov and Woll.

Starts at around 49:30 if you need to skip to it.

I only saw part of it at the end but I'm going to guess Woll was the better choice all along.
Anyone remember hearing that the Leafs PK was something like 81% with Woll in net and 73% with anyone not named Woll?
Love Sammy the person, not the goalie.

I mean that's the conclusion yes. It's not the usual narrative tripe though. He comes with receipts, breakdowns on different types of saves etc made by each goalie.

He's the guru of all that stuff.
I just watched it...question  is did the Leafs have this info?  And if they did, heads should roll for picking Sammy. I've said it many times, they didn't start Woll enough after injury. 3 out of the last 10 was plain stupid. He was the #1 guy before the injury. Oh well hopefully he can keep it going.

Hire the guy!

 

[herman]

Leafs should probably stay in a hotel for game 6 and treat it like a road game.

 

[Chris]

Leafs should probably stay in a hotel for game 6 and treat it like a road game.

Yeah it would probably benefit them to change something about their home game preparation. If Matthews is still out (which I expect) maybe that is enough, but if he's back, I fear they'll fall into their old ways.

 

[herman]

[youtube]awDSksyUi6c[/youtube]

The segment here from Steve Valiquette before game 5 is excellent. It covers goaltending and specifically the differences between Samsonov and Woll.

Starts at around 49:30 if you need to skip to it.

Thanks for posting this! I?m glad he remarked on the start splits, with Sammy getting the easys and Woll facing the Boston/Tampa etc games. I don?t know what the plan was behind that but it was clearly a choice. (Give Sammy confidence? Stress test Woll for playoff prep?)

 

[herman]

Leafs should probably stay in a hotel for game 6 and treat it like a road game.

Yeah it would probably benefit them to change something about their home game preparation. If Matthews is still out (which I expect) maybe that is enough, but if he's back, I fear they'll fall into their old ways.

MLHS has some good observations about how Keefe runs his bench, and how some of the players get a bit high on their own supply.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2024/05/01/game-5-analysis-maple-leafs-bruins/

2. Home ice malaise. This storyline has become all too familiar for Leafs fans, with Toronto losing six straight home games in the playoffs. Their last win was Game 2 over Tampa Bay last season, a problem that has gone on far too long. While the players own some responsibility for it, it?s hard not to look at the scope of Sheldon Keefe?s tenure as Leafs head coach and not conclude that last change has become a liability for Keefe, who might be over-thinking and meddling to the point where it is disrupting the team?s rhythm.