Qualifier Game 5: Blue Jackets @ Leafs - Aug. 9th, 8:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[OldTimeHockey]

I think we can hop up and down all we want about who didn't show up to play but the bottom line is, the Leafs should of been up by a couple going into the 2nd. And probably up at least 3-0 by the end of the 2nd period. The leafs ran into hot goaltending the entire series.
Were they all firing at full capacity? No. Not even close. But if Korpisalo is even a little human in game 1 and game 5, this series goes the other way.

Tavares and Matthews were the best two forwards. As they should be. Marner can tend to be too cute, but that's always been his M.O. It's also what makes him so fun to watch.
Nylander was invisible. Even when they gave him his own line, he was invisible.

As for Andersen, I'm not sure what else we can ask of the guy. We can get excited about that 2nd goal against last night(it was awful), but where were the rest of the group. You can actually see Andersen look out and shake his head when the Columbus player shakes his head. How do 4 players go for a line change together with no idea where the puck is or who has it?

 

[BrownRolo]

You guys this kind of just hit me. Hockey's kind of a stupid sport. It depends WAY TOO MUCH on luck. You look at those BJ goals and it's just throw it at the net and maybe we get lucky and it sneaks in. So often in hockey the less skilled team wins. Why? Because it's a crap shoot of pucks bouncing off people, sticks, skates.

Oh yeah also the Leafs never get powerplays. That would be a way to make sure skill wins. When the less talented team is constantly hacking, slashing, holding but the refs are never willing to call it.

On a whole I've become a little disillusioned with the sport.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You guys this kind of just hit me. Hockey's kind of a stupid sport. It depends WAY TOO MUCH on luck. You look at those BJ goals and it's just throw it at the net and maybe we get lucky and it sneaks in. So often in hockey the less skilled team wins. Why? Because it's a crap shoot of pucks bouncing off people, sticks, skates.

Oh yeah also the Leafs never get powerplays. That would be a way to make sure skill wins. When the less talented team is constantly hacking, slashing, holding but the refs are never willing to call it.

On a whole I've become a little disillusioned with the sport.

Yuup.

 

[Bullfrog]

I must have been watching a different game. I'm very confused by the "Nylander was invisible" comments. I'm not saying he had his best game or anything, but I thought he was flying out there.

With zero hesitation, Marner would be the one I'd trade over Nylander. I'm not advocating for either being traded though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marner should be tradeable if people are actually serious about it...

I don't really expect Marner to be traded, but the impact of this years signing bonus already being paid could be pretty huge. He got a $14.3mil payment on July 1st. That would mean almost half of the value of his contract has already been paid for ($30.3mil of $65.385mil).

So any team that acquires him would only have to pay him $700k for this upcoming season and about an average of $8.5mil for the 4 seasons after that.

The AAV, especially during this extended period of a flat cap, is obviously still high.

 

[L K]

I must have been watching a different game. I'm very confused by the "Nylander was invisible" comments. I'm not saying he had his best game or anything, but I thought he was flying out there.

With zero hesitation, Marner would be the one I'd trade over Nylander. I'm not advocating for either being traded though.

The one scenario, and as unlikely as it would be would be something like:

Trade Marner/Nylander and Kapanen to free up cap space, get a defenseman out of that trade and then shoot a load for Pietrangelo.

Then you also remember that while we add Robertson to the lineup the scoring depth for the team was kind of garbage and the loss of two top 6 forwards is going to have a real impact on the team.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The one scenario, and as unlikely as it would be would be something like:

Trade Marner/Nylander and Kapanen to free up cap space, get a defenseman out of that trade and then shoot a load for Pietrangelo.

Yeah that's basically the only way I see it happening too, with a Pietrangelo contract already lined up.

Granted with no "official" interview period that'll be a tough series of moves to pull off quickly.

 

[Bullfrog]

I had the same thought, though do we have to trade Marner/Nylander to make it happen?

We lose Ceci ($4.5M) and Barrie ($2.75M) and could replace one of them with Sandin. What does Pietrangelo get? $10M? I thought Mikheyev would be in line for a Johnsson-esque contract, but probably not now. Trade Johnsson/Kapanen ($3.4M). Then there's Muzzin's $1.6M raise.

It'll be tight. They'll need room to re-sign Andersen after next year too.

Would be nice if the team had more forward prospects.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I had the same thought, though do we have to trade Marner/Nylander to make it happen?

We lose Ceci ($4.5M) and Barrie ($2.75M) and could replace one of them with Sandin. What does Pietrangelo get? $10M? I thought Mikheyev would be in line for a Johnsson-esque contract, but probably not now. Trade Johnsson/Kapanen ($3.4M). Then there's Muzzin's $1.6M raise.

It'll be tight. They'll need room to re-sign Andersen after next year too.

Would be nice if the team had more forward prospects.

Hypothetically speaking if we traded Kapanen and Johnsson, re-signed Dermott ($1.5mil), Mikheyev ($1.5mil) and Spezza ($700k) and plugged in guys like Robertson, Barabanov, and Petan to fill in the roster spots... we'd have just over $5.5mil in cap space to offer Pietrangelo.

 

[BrownRolo]

I like the idea of signing Lehner if at all possible. Sign him for a 4 year deal and then move on from Andersen. It's just time to cut bait with him.

I guess it depends on what he does this playoffs but do you think Leaner could be had for 5 million per season?

 

[Guilt Trip]

You guys this kind of just hit me. Hockey's kind of a stupid sport. It depends WAY TOO MUCH on luck. You look at those BJ goals and it's just throw it at the net and maybe we get lucky and it sneaks in. So often in hockey the less skilled team wins. Why? Because it's a crap shoot of pucks bouncing off people, sticks, skates.

Oh yeah also the Leafs never get powerplays. That would be a way to make sure skill wins. When the less talented team is constantly hacking, slashing, holding but the refs are never willing to call it.

On a whole I've become a little disillusioned with the sport.

Yuup.

I don't see a lot of doom and gloom around here because I think we outplayed CBJ in this series. It is what it is. CBJ got two lucky goals, we hit the post on an empty net. If anyone told you that Freddie would have a GAA of 1.84 and 936 SV% in the 1st round, you wouldn't think we'd lose the series. Just wasn't meant to be. Defensively they do need help though as we're prone to that costly mistake. I think Dubas will address that in the off season. CC and Barrie have to be gone. Neither is very good. Anyway it was fun watching them play again after being off for so long.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I like the idea of signing Lehner if at all possible. Sign him for a 4 year deal and then move on from Andersen. It's just time to cut bait with him.

I guess it depends on what he does this playoffs but do you think Leaner could be had for 5 million per season?

I was wondering about this too. Maybe not necessarily signing Lehner but just moving on from Andersen this offseason. He has 1 year left on his deal that's already had a $4mil signing bonus paid just leaving $1mil in salary.

I just feel like we've lost way too many assets to free agency the past few years. If the Leafs don't plan on re-signing him (and I'm not sure they should) then they need to look at finding his replacement (whether it's Lehner or a lesser goalie to split time with Campbell) now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yuup.

I don't see a lot of doom and gloom around here because I think we outplayed CBJ in this series. It is what it is. CBJ got two lucky goals, we hit the post on an empty net. If anyone told you that Freddie would have a GAA of 1.84 and 936 SV% in the 1st round, you wouldn't think we'd lose the series. Just wasn't meant to be. Defensively they do need help though as we're prone to that costly mistake. I think Dubas will address that in the off season. CC and Barrie have to be gone. Neither is very good. Anyway it was fun watching them play again after being off for so long.

My agreement with that post is more about how hockey is a dumb sport and we're all chumps for loving it.

 

[BrownRolo]

You guys this kind of just hit me. Hockey's kind of a stupid sport. It depends WAY TOO MUCH on luck. You look at those BJ goals and it's just throw it at the net and maybe we get lucky and it sneaks in. So often in hockey the less skilled team wins. Why? Because it's a crap shoot of pucks bouncing off people, sticks, skates.

Oh yeah also the Leafs never get powerplays. That would be a way to make sure skill wins. When the less talented team is constantly hacking, slashing, holding but the refs are never willing to call it.

On a whole I've become a little disillusioned with the sport.

Yuup.

The loses don't hurt as much now because it's basically just a roll of a dice.

Take Game 4 for example. People act like the Leafs "willed" their way to victory. I'd say they just got lucky.

And you guys let's be honest, if the Leafs had won the cup this year it would kind of be shitty for the city of Toronto. The best part of the Leafs winning would be the city going crazy. With covid going on it wouldn't have had the same feeling.

Tough loss but oh well...Let's get em next year with the Toronto fans back in the arena and in Maple Leaf square.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Yuup.

I don't see a lot of doom and gloom around here because I think we outplayed CBJ in this series. It is what it is. CBJ got two lucky goals, we hit the post on an empty net. If anyone told you that Freddie would have a GAA of 1.84 and 936 SV% in the 1st round, you wouldn't think we'd lose the series. Just wasn't meant to be. Defensively they do need help though as we're prone to that costly mistake. I think Dubas will address that in the off season. CC and Barrie have to be gone. Neither is very good. Anyway it was fun watching them play again after being off for so long.

My agreement with that post is more about how hockey is a dumb sport and we're all chumps for loving it.

Very true!

 

[herman]

I must have been watching a different game. I'm very confused by the "Nylander was invisible" comments. I'm not saying he had his best game or anything, but I thought he was flying out there.

With zero hesitation, Marner would be the one I'd trade over Nylander. I'm not advocating for either being traded though.

I don?t think Nylander was particularly good last night but he was also given a bum gig more or less on the fly. He did alright with what he was given and he?s the only reason they even had a super line available. Kapanen nerfs all offensive creativity on any line he plays on.

Marner was more impactful without the puck, but he was handed the best situation for him to succeed and he very much did not. OTH?s point about him being too cute nailed it. That?s what makes him great to watch, but this was a series that the opposition was tailored to neutralize and he made no adjustment other than to fritter away chance after chance in pursuit of a more glorious option. He wanted to be paid like the best and given all the opportunity to live up to it. As was the case all season, he put up the points but his play felt off and frustrating.

 

[L K]

I had the same thought, though do we have to trade Marner/Nylander to make it happen?

We lose Ceci ($4.5M) and Barrie ($2.75M) and could replace one of them with Sandin. What does Pietrangelo get? $10M? I thought Mikheyev would be in line for a Johnsson-esque contract, but probably not now. Trade Johnsson/Kapanen ($3.4M). Then there's Muzzin's $1.6M raise.

It'll be tight. They'll need room to re-sign Andersen after next year too.

Would be nice if the team had more forward prospects.

If the Leafs bring back the same team this year (let Ceci and Barrie walk, re-sign Spezza to another 700K deal) they have:

Forwards ($58,064,366) - Matthews (11.634), Tavares (11), Marner (10.893), Nylander (6.962), Kerfoot (3.5), Johnsson (3.4), Kapanen (3.2), Hyman (2.25), Mikheyev (1.5), Engvall (1.25), Barabanov (.925), Robertson (.85), Spezza (.7)

Defense ($16,469,167) - Muzzin (5.625), Rielly (5), Holl (2), Dermott (1.5), Sandin (.894), Rosen (.75), Marincin (.7)

Goal ($6,650,000) - Andersen (5), Cambell (1.65)

Retained ($1,200,000) - Kessel (1.2)

Total ($82,383,533) - $ 883,533

So with 13 forwards and 7 defensemen, getting a favourable deal with Spezza again and getting Mikeyev and Dermott on relatively cheap 1-year extensions the Leafs come in over the cap.

If you trade Johnsson/Kapanen for draft picks alone and don't get any NHL insertable assets we free up 6.6M.  If the Leafs run with 6 defensemen (waive Marincin) too and go with 12 forwards (have to bring in a guy like Agostino at 737K to get to 12 forwards) they are left with 5.678M in cap space.
Pietrangelo isn't getting less than 7 million.
The Leafs need to unload one of those big contracts if they are going to make a significant acquisition to make the team better.

 

[ZBBM]

You guys this kind of just hit me. Hockey's kind of a stupid sport. It depends WAY TOO MUCH on luck. You look at those BJ goals and it's just throw it at the net and maybe we get lucky and it sneaks in. So often in hockey the less skilled team wins. Why? Because it's a crap shoot of pucks bouncing off people, sticks, skates.

Oh yeah also the Leafs never get powerplays. That would be a way to make sure skill wins. When the less talented team is constantly hacking, slashing, holding but the refs are never willing to call it.

On a whole I've become a little disillusioned with the sport.

Yuup.

There is a lot of randomness in it.  That said, there's not TOO much.  The best teams almost always come out of it at the end.

 

[ZBBM]

I must have been watching a different game. I'm very confused by the "Nylander was invisible" comments. I'm not saying he had his best game or anything, but I thought he was flying out there.

With zero hesitation, Marner would be the one I'd trade over Nylander. I'm not advocating for either being traded though.

I don?t think Nylander was particularly good last night but he was also given a bum gig more or less on the fly. He did alright with what he was given and he?s the only reason they even had a super line available. Kapanen nerfs all offensive creativity on any line he plays on.

Marner was more impactful without the puck, but he was handed the best situation for him to succeed and he very much did not. OTH?s point about him being too cute nailed it. That?s what makes him great to watch, but this was a series that the opposition was tailored to neutralize and he made no adjustment other than to fritter away chance after chance in pursuit of a more glorious option. He wanted to be paid like the best and given all the opportunity to live up to it. As was the case all season, he put up the points but his play felt off and frustrating.

I agree.  I said last night that I think there's going to be a surprise trade that none of us expect.  Although one of 16/88 could be on his way out, I was thinking more of guys who need to re-signed soon, like Rielly (read LK's payroll post above) or Andersen.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Pietrangelo isn't getting less than 7 million.
The Leafs need to unload one of those big contracts if they are going to make a significant acquisition to make the team better.

It would sting... hard... but if Rielly is unloaded in addition to those other moves you could end up with:

Muzzin-Pietrangelo
Dermott-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren