Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews

[herman]

PPP: 1. Auston Matthews

Duh.

Not quite as flashy as some other players out there, but so very consistently involved and quietly making plays happen that would have otherwise fizzled out due to his exquisite puck handling.

He not only sees and reads the game extremely quickly, but he has the skills to actually pull off a lot of what he envisions himself doing. If something turns out to be not-doable, he then goes and puts in the work to make his body capable.

What does he need to work on? Adjusting to the new NHL level of competition won't take long. From what I've seen, he just needs to figure out (as quickly as possible) that he is actually a level beyond most of the league and just roll with it. Off the ice, he can be as aw-shucks humble as he wants to be, but on the ice, I'd like to see him just put on a clinic and put up a stoic celly.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4PpYN_eCbQ[/youtube]

 

[hockeyfan1]

We know what Matthews can do, but to Leafs fans two words count:  NHL-ready.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

PPP: 23. Carl Grundstrom
TLN: 18. Adam Brooks

This is normally the boring part of the list, where those long-term projects are shelved. To an extent, they still are, but they seem to have higher potential this time around than years past.

Not 100% sure what TLN is doing with their list though.

A decent interview with John Paddock about Adam Brooks:

Adam Brooks: A Q&A with Regina Pats head coach John Paddock

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

"Matthews grabbed his own hockey bag and started to walk off. The equipment manager had to remind him that people are paid to do that for him"

Adorable.

 

[herman]

Matthews: https://gfycat.com/AcidicJovialFoxterrier

Click the link to actually see it.

 

[herman]

A decent interview with John Paddock about Adam Brooks:

Adam Brooks: A Q&A with Regina Pats head coach John Paddock

Getting some Connor Brown + overlooked Mitch Marner vibes from this one...

 

[Frank E]

Granted, it's super early, but Button's got a ranking for the 2017 draft up:

http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-nolan-patrick-stands-above-the-rest-1.566071

Problem I see is that after Liljegren, there isn't another high pick defenseman until #17.

 

[bustaheims]

Problem I see is that after Liljegren, there isn't another high pick defenseman until #17.

That wouldn't be super unusual, but, as you said, it's super-early. Also, it's Button, so, who knows?

 

[rdowdall]

Granted, it's super early, but Button's got a ranking for the 2017 draft up:

http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-nolan-patrick-stands-above-the-rest-1.566071

Problem I see is that after Liljegren, there isn't another high pick defenseman until #17.

But there are a couple of goalies.

 

[Kin]

Too early for this sort of thing but I've seen some rankings that had Cal Foote in the top 10. Big guy, right handed shot, had a decent offensive season last year

 

[bustaheims]

Too early for this sort of thing but I've seen some rankings that had Cal Foote in the top 10. Big guy, right handed shot, had a decent offensive season last year

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Nicolas Hague ranked higher in other places, based on his size and some decent production.

 

[Kin]

Too early for this sort of thing but I've seen some rankings that had Cal Foote in the top 10. Big guy, right handed shot, had a decent offensive season last year

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Nicolas Hague ranked higher in other places, based on his size and some decent production.

And while neither of their numbers look super impressive, worth going back and looking at the jump a lot of top D prospects took going from D-1 to their draft year.

Ekblad  .63 ppg - .91 ppg
Rielly    .43 ppg - 1.00 ppg
Dougie Hamilton .25 ppg - .87 ppg

 

[mr grieves]

Granted, it's super early, but Button's got a ranking for the 2017 draft up:

http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-nolan-patrick-stands-above-the-rest-1.566071

Problem I see is that after Liljegren, there isn't another high pick defenseman until #17.

That doesn't seem unusual. And, anyway, how many high-end defensemen are really drafted in the top half of the first round?

If you came up with a list of the 30 or so best defensemen in the league, and dropped the kids under 23 (high picks are who are great out of the gate) and folks over 28 (often low picks who take a long time to develop [e.g. Stralman]), then I think you'll find plenty of guys who established themselves as high-end defensemen by their mid-20s were drafted in the mid-/late-1st round, oftentimes as late as the second.

I mean, would be nice to land a top-3 pick stud defenseman, but a team with Matthews, Nylander, and Marner is going to probably bust out of the basement -- even if not much past that, in their first year.

 

[Kin]

I mean, would be nice to land a top-3 pick stud defenseman, but a team with Matthews, Nylander, and Marner is going to probably bust out of the basement -- even if not much past that, in their first year.

I'm not saying it's impossible but there's a pretty good chance you're talking about 3 forwards who don't crack 50 points.

 

[mr grieves]

I mean, would be nice to land a top-3 pick stud defenseman, but a team with Matthews, Nylander, and Marner is going to probably bust out of the basement -- even if not much past that, in their first year.

I'm not saying it's impossible but there's a pretty good chance you're talking about 3 forwards who don't crack 50 points.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not that Matthews and Nylander crack 50 points. If JvR is healthy and Kadri's playing with a reasonably talented player, good chance they're both over 50. How much of an improvement do you really think it'll take for them to be drafting 5-10?

 

[Kin]

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not that Matthews and Nylander crack 50 points. If JvR is healthy and Kadri's playing with a reasonably talented player, good chance they're both over 50. How much of an improvement do you really think it'll take for them to be drafting 5-10?

The Leafs last year were at -48 goal differential. The #5 team, Calgary, was at -33. The #10 team was at -24. So....they probably have to improve differential by 10-15 to get to #5, 20-25 to get to #10.

A 50 point rookie season is a pretty big deal. Some pretty high profile young players haven't hit that total and the ones who have were mainly thrust into the sorts of roles that the Leafs rookies very well might not be in. I wouldn't assume it's likely for any of them.

 

[mr grieves]

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not that Matthews and Nylander crack 50 points. If JvR is healthy and Kadri's playing with a reasonably talented player, good chance they're both over 50. How much of an improvement do you really think it'll take for them to be drafting 5-10?

The Leafs last year were at -48 goal differential. The #5 team, Calgary, was at -33. The #10 team was at -24. So....they probably have to improve differential by 10-15 to get to #5, 20-25 to get to #10.

A 50 point rookie season is a pretty big deal. Some pretty high profile young players haven't hit that total and the ones who have were mainly thrust into the sorts of roles that the Leafs rookies very well might not be in. I wouldn't assume it's likely for any of them.

For an eighteen or nineteen year old coming out of junior, sure. But Nylander's 20 and Matthews is as old as Eichel, has been playing in men's leagues. Not saying it's an easy or sure thing, but the projections I've seen put them over 50, so would say it's more likely they hit it than they don't.

 

[Kin]

For an eighteen or nineteen year old coming out of junior, sure. But Nylander's 20 and Matthews is as old as Eichel, has been playing in men's leagues. Not saying it's an easy or sure thing, but the projections I've seen put them over 50, so would say it's more likely they hit it than they don't.

50 point rookie seasons are rare for any rookie. Mark Scheifele was in his draft +3 year as a rookie and had 34 points in 63 games and not, I think we'd agree, because he was a bad player without potential. Barkov was in the league two years before he cracked the mark. Sam Reinhart didn't get there, etc.

Score 50 points and you're effectively in Calder nomination territory. It seems pretty unlikely the Leafs will get three guys there. Obviously I can't speak to the projections you're talking about without seeing them but considering that Matthews is going to start as the team's #3 C and the other guys aren't guaranteed to start any higher it's going to be a tall order for any of them.

 

[Kin]

Also, on subject of the team improving and leaving the bottom 5 I think sometimes we look at these things just in isolation. Like the Leafs improvements can be figured just be looking at last year's roster.

But the league is designed to push teams towards the middle. So all teams on the bottom will get better. Paradoxically, that's what makes it hard for teams to climb out of the gutter.

Whether the rookies score 50 points or not aside we have to acknowledge the way other teams have also improved. The Leafs' rivals for the bottom last year will all be adding big pieces and will see their key pieces mature. I don't want to say that the Leafs, of the bottom feeders, improved the least but I don't think there's another team in the bottom 10 where you can't make a case for them improving just as much as the Leafs might.

 

[sneakyray]

Also, on subject of the team improving and leaving the bottom 5 I think sometimes we look at these things just in isolation. Like the Leafs improvements can be figured just be looking at last year's roster.

But the league is designed to push teams towards the middle. So all teams on the bottom will get better. Paradoxically, that's what makes it hard for teams to climb out of the gutter.

Whether the rookies score 50 points or not aside we have to acknowledge the way other teams have also improved. The Leafs' rivals for the bottom last year will all be adding big pieces and will see their key pieces mature. I don't want to say that the Leafs, of the bottom feeders, improved the least but I don't think there's another team in the bottom 10 where you can't make a case for them improving just as much as the Leafs might.

but what about some of the teams in the upper half of the league falling?

For instance...is this the year that detroit falls off a cliff?  what if chara is more awful this year and backes shows his age,  what if lundquist finally starts slowing down, what if montreal doesn't make the improvements that most people think they will this year, although it seems like philadelphia has figured things out they still have no goalie, is ottawa any better than last year?

anyways, my point being it might not have to be the bottom dwellers that the leafs leave in the dust but if 2 or three of the bottom dwellers climb at the expense of falling middling teams thats how they move up.

I mean, 2 years ago the kings missed the playoffs, that allowed winnipeg to make it.

is it that crazy to see detroit fallin out and having toronto make it instead?  Alot would have to right for toronto but its not comlpetely unthinkable.