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Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews

Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
1. See edit.
2. Zaitsev wasn't in our system at all, prior to THIS spring, he has yet to play a full season in the NHL, thus also qualifying as a rookie as well as a prospect regardless of being older than Rielly.

Neither of those things answers the question I asked of what the value is in narrowing the scope of the question arbitrarily. I mean, it's great that you define prospect in a certain way but I don't see how these distinctions actually matter. If the Leafs had kept Marner up last year and he'd had a not very productive rookie season, why wouldn't we still want to assess his potential vs. the other young players in the system?

Because then he gets ranked in comparison to his NHL teammates.  I just don't consider a full time NHL'er, regardless of age, a prospect.

You are no longer auditioning for the show, when you are in the show.
 
There might be a bit of confusion due to my mushing PPP's T25U25 into a thread titled Ranking Prospects. The goal of the T25U25 is to rank our talent pool just shy of the standard development inflection point (before the chaff is separated from the wheat), so it contains a mix of prospects and (hopefully a lot of) full-timers.

Full timers usually get a heavier score due to having already 'made it' in some fashion, though there are caveats to that as bottom-6 or 5-6 d-pairings are far easier to make it in than top positions (e.g. Nylander and Marner scoring higher than Holland last year).
 
TBLeafer said:
Because then he gets ranked in comparison to his NHL teammates.  I just don't consider a full time NHL'er, regardless of age, a prospect.

You are no longer auditioning for the show, when you are in the show.

Right, you've made it abundantly clear that you think the distinction between prospect/not a prospect is a very important one. That's exactly the sort of semantic diversion that a "25 under 25" list seems specifically constructed to avoid though.

The unifying thing a 19 year old regular and a 19 year old who's been in Junior probably have is that the purpose of ranking them isn't based on the players they are right now but rather the projection of players they might be. That's true regardless of NHL experience and that's what these lists are about. It's a "who has the most potential in the system" list. Excluding players like Kadri and Gardiner is on the basis of them largely having become the players they're going to be rather than something arbitrary.

I mean, I guess I'll give asking one last try but this isn't about what you consider a prospect or whether or not you think the distinction between player/prospect is important. I'm asking us why we'd want to narrow the discussion as opposed to broaden it? What purpose does that serve as we assess young players?
 
TBLeafer said:
You are no longer auditioning for the show, when you are in the show.

Until you're a well-established player, you're always auditioning - even when you're in the show.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
Because then he gets ranked in comparison to his NHL teammates.  I just don't consider a full time NHL'er, regardless of age, a prospect.

You are no longer auditioning for the show, when you are in the show.

Right, you've made it abundantly clear that you think the distinction between prospect/not a prospect is a very important one. That's exactly the sort of semantic diversion that a "25 under 25" list seems specifically constructed to avoid though.

The unifying thing a 19 year old regular and a 19 year old who's been in Junior probably have is that the purpose of ranking them isn't based on the players they are right now but rather the projection of players they might be. That's true regardless of NHL experience and that's what these lists are about. It's a "who has the most potential in the system" list. Excluding players like Kadri and Gardiner is on the basis of them largely having become the players they're going to be rather than something arbitrary.

I mean, I guess I'll give asking one last try but this isn't about what you consider a prospect or whether or not you think the distinction between player/prospect is important. I'm asking us why we'd want to narrow the discussion as opposed to broaden it? What purpose does that serve as we assess young players?

Because then why limit it at 25?  Why not assess our ENTIRE talent pool. That certainly broadens things.
 
TBLeafer said:
Because then why limit it at 25?  Why not assess our ENTIRE talent pool. That certainly broadens things.

I answered that in the post you quote.
 
TBLeafer said:
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
Because then he gets ranked in comparison to his NHL teammates.  I just don't consider a full time NHL'er, regardless of age, a prospect.

You are no longer auditioning for the show, when you are in the show.

Right, you've made it abundantly clear that you think the distinction between prospect/not a prospect is a very important one. That's exactly the sort of semantic diversion that a "25 under 25" list seems specifically constructed to avoid though.

The unifying thing a 19 year old regular and a 19 year old who's been in Junior probably have is that the purpose of ranking them isn't based on the players they are right now but rather the projection of players they might be. That's true regardless of NHL experience and that's what these lists are about. It's a "who has the most potential in the system" list. Excluding players like Kadri and Gardiner is on the basis of them largely having become the players they're going to be rather than something arbitrary.

I mean, I guess I'll give asking one last try but this isn't about what you consider a prospect or whether or not you think the distinction between player/prospect is important. I'm asking us why we'd want to narrow the discussion as opposed to broaden it? What purpose does that serve as we assess young players?

Because then why limit it at 25?  Why not assess our ENTIRE talent pool. That certainly broadens things.

Because that was the scope the article went out to achieve, and it's fair in its scope - it's based on age bracket. That's it. Adding additional parameters unnecessarily distorts who our young players are and how good they are. As an example, leave Rielly off the list all you want - it's still an insane omission to make if we are judging our young, quality talent pool. I don't think anyone who's a Panthers fan would leave Ekblad off the top of their list of young players within the Panthers organization. I mean, by your definition Marner, Matthews, Nylander etc. will likely all be off this list next year, which makes our team's young players look incredibly shallow when it isn't.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
Because then why limit it at 25?  Why not assess our ENTIRE talent pool. That certainly broadens things.

I answered that in the post you quote.

And you get to either accept my prospect list as a prospect list in a prospects thread, or go off and create a T 25 U 25 rank of your own or discuss the one created on PPP, which personally I don't think belongs in this subforum because it includes full time NHL'ers.  Go back to my original list and my disclaimer as to why I created it the way I did.

There is nothing wrong with my criteria because I've qualified it, before I created the list.
 
TBLeafer said:
There is nothing wrong with my criteria because I've qualified it, before I created the list.

Like I said, because it arbitrarily narrows the scope of what's being discussed I think it creates a less extensive answer to the fundamental question which is the overall strength(and effective depth chart) of the organizational pool of young players.
 
Bender said:
Because that was the scope the article went out to achieve, and it's fair in its scope - it's based on age bracket. That's it. Adding additional parameters unnecessarily distorts who our young players are and how good they are. As an example, leave Rielly off the list all you want - it's still an insane omission to make if we are judging our young, quality talent pool. I don't think anyone who's a Panthers fan would leave Ekblad off the top of their list of young players within the Panthers organization. I mean, by your definition Marner, Matthews, Nylander etc. will likely all be off this list next year, which makes our team's young players look incredibly shallow when it isn't.

I never clicked the link, I created my own pool and criteria, because if you're gonna rank Matthews and Marner and Nylander against Rielly, you might as well go ahead and rank them against JVR and Kadri and Gardiner too.

I choose to rank NHL'ers against NHL'ers and prospects against prospects.

So what if the prospect pool by my criteria looks more thinned out next season?  The best ones have become NHL'ers, which is a more important list to comprise of top players than a prospect pool.
 
RedLeaf said:
TBLeafer said:
My list is a little different.  I have a slightly different definition of what qualifies as a prospect.  To me a prospect is one that has yet to crack an NHL roster.

A U 25 roster player is a U 25 roster player, not a prospect, so in my prospect pool, Morgan Rielly for instance, doesn't qualify.  He's a core player, signed long term.  That being said, here are my top 20 prospects:

Ranked on both NHL readiness and long term success.

1. Mitch Marner
2. Auston Matthews
3. William Nylander
4. Nikita Zaitsev
5. Connor Carrick
6. Connor Brown
7. Zach Hyman
8. Nikita Soshnikov
9. Kerby Rychel
10. Kasperi Kapanen
11. Travis Dermott
12. Jeremy Bracco
13. Viktor Loov
14. Tobias Lindberg
15. Brendan Leipsic
16. Antoine Bibeau
17. Andrew Nielsen
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Josh Leivo
20. Garret Sparks

Not qualified in my list are the likes of Corrado, Rielly, Marincin, etc. as they have already both played their rookie season and aren't currently in the minors.

I made ONE change to your list. I don't know if I believe it. At least not yet. I just don't think we should all assume we have the number one and two in the correct order. I'd like to at least see them both play in an exhibition game first before I'm completely comfortable putting them in order. Anyone else think there's a chance?

I don't. I think Matthews is in an entirely different class.
 
herman said:

Last year's T25U25 for reference with their current status relative to the team and the rankings.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
There is nothing wrong with my criteria because I've qualified it, before I created the list.

Like I said, because it arbitrarily narrows the scope of what's being discussed I think it creates a less extensive answer to the fundamental question which is the overall strength(and effective depth chart) of the organizational pool of young players.

Nah, quite frankly, you're just being a dick.

When Pronman does his annual prospect rankings (who quite frankly I find more credible than anyone on PPP) does he include full time NHL'ers? 

Does McDavid still show up?  No.  No he does not.
 
TBLeafer said:
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
There is nothing wrong with my criteria because I've qualified it, before I created the list.

Like I said, because it arbitrarily narrows the scope of what's being discussed I think it creates a less extensive answer to the fundamental question which is the overall strength(and effective depth chart) of the organizational pool of young players.

Nah, quite frankly, you're just being a dick.

When Pronman does his annual prospect rankings (who quite frankly I find more credible than anyone on PPP) does he include full time NHL'ers? 

Does McDavid still show up?  No.  No he does not.

Wow, resorting to name calling... classy.  Seriously though, herman brought up the PPP T25U25 and you responded to that by changing the parameters.  Kudos for sticking to your guns, but you've basically stolen the topic from talking about the T25U25 into a discussion of what YOU care about.  I say we just ignore you and just move on to talking about the T25U25.
 
TBLeafer said:
When Pronman does his annual prospect rankings (who quite frankly I find more credible than anyone on PPP) does he include full time NHL'ers? 

Does McDavid still show up?  No.  No he does not.

PPP.

Wasn't.

Ranking.

Prospects.

You admittedly never clicked on the link. Had you done so you might have known that.
 
TBLeafer said:
When Pronman does his annual prospect rankings (who quite frankly I find more credible than anyone on PPP) does he include full time NHL'ers? 

I don't know, I don't read him. But this isn't a list of prospects. Again, it seems pretty clearly designed to avoid that mess. There's probably a value in doing a prospects only list to the extent that if you're dealing with an American audience they're unlikely to get exposed to a lot of information about CHL or Euro league players and you want to focus analysis on guys who, unlike McDavid, hockey fans aren't likely to have seen.

But even still, whenever people do bring up things like HF's organizational rankings it's still valid to point out that their "graduation" standards distort the image of which team has the best young talent. List McDavid or don't, he's still pretty important to the question of Edmonton's organizational strength and how it projects going forward.
 
Coco-puffs said:
TBLeafer said:
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
There is nothing wrong with my criteria because I've qualified it, before I created the list.

Like I said, because it arbitrarily narrows the scope of what's being discussed I think it creates a less extensive answer to the fundamental question which is the overall strength(and effective depth chart) of the organizational pool of young players.

Nah, quite frankly, you're just being a dick.

When Pronman does his annual prospect rankings (who quite frankly I find more credible than anyone on PPP) does he include full time NHL'ers? 

Does McDavid still show up?  No.  No he does not.

Wow, resorting to name calling... classy.  Seriously though, herman brought up the PPP T25U25 and you responded to that by changing the parameters.  Kudos for sticking to your guns, but you've basically stolen the topic from talking about the T25U25 into a discussion of what YOU care about.  I say we just ignore you and just move on to talking about the T25U25.

Which I invited anyone to do.  I think a T 25 U 25 belongs in the main section because it includes full time NHL'ers.

I don't think its fair to rank an unproven prospect against a full time NHL'er and yes name calling because all Nik and Busta have tried to do is discredit my list since I created it using a perfectly accepted industry model.  Multiple posters now (RL and BF) have had no problem discussing my list upon qualifying my criteria.

Neither Nik or Busta created legitimate lists but had no problem trying to paint mine as invalid when it comes to ranking prospects even though it is the very model the ENTIRE NHL uses.

But I guess here the PPP is more credible because in their list it allows for all players in the system under 25, that pitts prospects against full time NHL'ers. 
 
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