Report: Shea Weber agrees to offer sheet with PHI (Dreger on twitter)

[The Red Polar Bear]

@DarrenDreger: Breaking: Shea Weber agrees to offer sheet with Philadelphia. 14 years, upwards of $100 mil. Preds have 7 days to match. Wow!!

@DarrenDreger: Nashville was working on a trade and its believed several deadlines passed before Flyers grew tired of waiting. Weber signed offer sheet.

@DarrenDreger: I'm told a number of teams were in on a possible Shea Weber trade. If Preds don't match, they receive 4- 1st round picks as compensation.

 

[Deebo]

We'll have to wait and see how it is allocated, if there is a tonne of money in the first couple years, it might prohibit Nashville from matching.

 

[louisstamos]

Double-U Tee Eff!!?!?!?!

edit: $100 mil over 14 years would be $7.14ish annual salary.  So wouldn't the compensation be two firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd?

 

[Deebo]

If the contract is less than 7.835 AAV, it'll be 2 1sts and 2nd and a 3rd.

Nashville just has to match, if they lose weber and Suter and only have 2 late firsts and a couple later picks to show for it, that's just a massive step backwards.

EDIT: apparently the offersheets compensation value is taken based on the first 5 years? Which means it'll be 4 1sts no matter what.

But still. 4 picks in the 20s after losing weber and Suter would be crippling.

 

[Bender]

If the contract is less than 7.835 AAV, it'll be 2 1sts and 2nd and a 3rd.

Nashville just has to match, if they lose weber and Suter and only have 2 late firsts and a couple later picks to show for it, that's just a massive step backwards.

EDIT: apparently the offersheets compensation value is taken based on the first 5 years? Which means it'll be 4 1sts no matter what.

But still. 4 picks in the 20s after losing weber and Suter would be crippling.

Yeah, I mean, I don't think they can afford their team to be gutted like that. It'll take 10 years for the Preds to recover from such heavy losses.

 

[lamajama]

Ugh. This is crazy. If I'm a Nashville owner I'm looking for a high bridge.

I know it's all about money but Weber is showing weak sauce here unless he really wants out of Nashville and his apparent desire to stay was a pantload.

I'll say one thing. Philly doesn't care who they tick off to try and build a winner.

Wish the Leafs had a GM willing to work within the CBA.

 

[Jalili]

Nashville will probably match it after already losing suter and hamhuis for zilch.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Is it just me or does this put Philly in a really dicey cap situation starting next year?

They Have Timmonen and Hartnell as UFA's and Simmonds as an RFA. The following year they have Meszaros and Read as UFA and Couturier, Schenn and Giroux as RFA's. They'll have near 40M committed to 8 players if this goes through in 2014.

If I'm Nashville I let him walk, draft the 4 picks and offer sheet one or more of Schenn, Couturier or Giroux in a couple years, and take advantage of a strong UFA class next year. They'll be fine.

 

[jonlleafs]

Is it just me or does this put Philly in a really dicey cap situation starting next year?

They Have Timmonen and Hartnell as UFA's and Simmonds as an RFA. The following year they have Meszaros and Read as UFA and Couturier, Schenn and Giroux as RFA's. They'll have near 40M committed to 8 players if this goes through in 2014.

If I'm Nashville I let him walk, draft the 4 picks and offer sheet one or more of Schenn, Couturier or Giroux in a couple years, and take advantage of a strong UFA class next year. They'll be fine.

You're assuming the prominent players will reach UFA/RFA status.  You can't run a team like that.  Also, you're going to overpay in the FA market which would probably hurt Nashville or they just simply can't afford it. 

If I'm Nashville, I have no choice but match and keep Weber.  Players like Weber don't come around often and to hope that you could draft one with one of the 1st round picks is a big gamble. 

I agree that Nashville is in a tight spot with either decision especially with their financial situation the way it is.  This could be the death knell for hockey in the city of Nashville unless they are able to maneuver out of this carefully.

 

[Deebo]

Schenn or Giroux, if they reach RFA status. would have to agree to sign an offersheet with the preds, which seems unlikely.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Is it just me or does this put Philly in a really dicey cap situation starting next year?

They Have Timmonen and Hartnell as UFA's and Simmonds as an RFA. The following year they have Meszaros and Read as UFA and Couturier, Schenn and Giroux as RFA's. They'll have near 40M committed to 8 players if this goes through in 2014.

If I'm Nashville I let him walk, draft the 4 picks and offer sheet one or more of Schenn, Couturier or Giroux in a couple years, and take advantage of a strong UFA class next year. They'll be fine.

You're assuming the prominent players will reach UFA/RFA status.  You can't run a team like that.  Also, you're going to overpay in the FA market which would probably hurt Nashville or they just simply can't afford it. 

If I'm Nashville, I have no choice but match and keep Weber.  Players like Weber don't come around often and to hope that you could draft one with one of the 1st round picks is a big gamble. 

I agree that Nashville is in a tight spot with either decision especially with their financial situation the way it is.  This could be the death knell for hockey in the city of Nashville unless they are able to maneuver out of this carefully.

Well sure I'm assuming they'll either reach RFA status or command more salary than they're earning now. Giroux could easily command more than 6M. Schenn and Couturier could play themselves into some pretty nice contracts.

It's not necessarily just the threat of an offer sheet, but actually having enough Cap space to deal with all the assets. They have the Cap space at the moment because they're getting a lot of production from players that are on 1st or 2nd contracts. That will change over the course of Weber's 14 year deal.

It's a very real possibility that Pronger is done. Timmonen and Hartnell can't be re-signed at current prices next year unless they're going to fill the rest of the roster (8 or so players) with league minimum players. Voracek needs to be signed and is probably due 3-4M.

It's not all rosy, and while they potentially get a great player, they limit their options with some assets on the team and give up 4 1st rounders.

Nashville can afford to pay UFA prices on some lesser lights. They've got Ellis just about to play regular minutes (I believe he'll be a stud), and Blum looking pretty good. 4 first rounders either help build the prospect pool (along with the 4 they already have) or they can move a package of their own and the picks from Philly for a good number of talented players in the league. Is it a big loss? Sure, but as it stands they're not competitors next year anyway.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Schenn or Giroux, if they reach RFA status. would have to agree to sign an offersheet with the preds, which seems unlikely.

Unless , you know, they're looking for a long deal at a dollar term of their liking. It's not as if Nashville is the worst place in the world to live. Paul Gaustad, amongst some others in the history of the NHL (Kariya, Arnott) actually chose to sign there.

Not every player signs to be on a contender. Is it likely? Given that anything is possible, it could happen.

 

[Kin]

Unless , you know, they're looking for a long deal at a dollar term of their liking. It's not as if Nashville is the worst place in the world to live. Paul Gaustad, amongst some others in the history of the NHL (Kariya, Arnott) actually chose to sign there.

None of those players were elite young players that were looking to sign lucrative long term deals though. Nashville's record of attracting big name free agents is not good.

Not every player signs to be on a contender. Is it likely? Given that anything is possible, it could happen.

If I'm Nashville I'm not going to make any plans on the rationale that "Hey, anything's possible". Leafs fans should know better than anyone that planning on adding elite pieces through free agency is a dicey strategy at the best of times.

 

[Kin]

I know it's all about money but Weber is showing weak sauce here unless he really wants out of Nashville and his apparent desire to stay was a pantload.

I don't know where you're getting that Weber had any sort of desire to stay. He signed a one year extension last year which means that he's rebuffed for two solid years any efforts to extend him to a long term deal. He seemed to me to be a sure bet to leave the second he was a UFA.

That's actually what surprises me here. I thought for sure with Suter leaving that Weber would want nothing to do with Nashville. What he's done here is given Nashville the rights to have him signed for basically the rest of his career if they match.

That says to me either A) his agent should be fired or B) he's willing to stay in Nashville at that price. That surprises the heck out of me. That means that all of the failed negotiations in years past were about money. It doesn't blow my doors off that any pro athlete would want to make the big bucks but the narrative that had emerged from the situation was that Nashville was throwing the money at him and he didn't want to sign because he didn't think they could be financially competitive and build a champion.

 

[Bullfrog]

What he's done here is given Nashville the rights to have him signed for basically the rest of his career if they match.

That's the part I don't understand. Is Weber obligated to sign with Nashville if they choose to match? That seems crazy, as that would essentially be contract negotiations between Philly and Nashville with no input from Weber.

But i suppose Weber wasn't required to sign with Philly either and if he didn't want to risk Nashville matching, he shouldn't have signed.

I thnk I've answered my own question. lol

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Unless , you know, they're looking for a long deal at a dollar term of their liking. It's not as if Nashville is the worst place in the world to live. Paul Gaustad, amongst some others in the history of the NHL (Kariya, Arnott) actually chose to sign there.

None of those players were elite young players that were looking to sign lucrative long term deals though. Nashville's record of attracting big name free agents is not good.

Not every player signs to be on a contender. Is it likely? Given that anything is possible, it could happen.

If I'm Nashville I'm not going to make any plans on the rationale that "Hey, anything's possible". Leafs fans should know better than anyone that planning on adding elite pieces through free agency is a dicey strategy at the best of times.

Well neither is Toronto's for that matter 

I think if Nashville puts together a good team, FA's will definitely give it a thought. Maybe we're not likely to see 15 deals, but few NHL teams have actually given out those contracts.

I'm not even suggesting they go the RFA offer sheet route, necessarily. Just that it's something they could explore while trying to build, and Philly has left themselves open to being a team that could run into trouble.

With 8 1sts Nahsville can acquire at the least 3 or 4 #1B type players or 2 #1A's.

There isn't a single player (even if they were signed long term) on the Leafs that I wouldn't move for 2 of Nashville's 1sts and 2 of Philly's.

Like I said before (or at least hinted at), Nashville could re-make that roster faster than a lot of people think if they don't match.

 

[Kin]

Well neither is Toronto's for that matter 

Sure, you know, excepting Ed Belfour, Curtis Joseph, Wayne Gretzky...

I think if Nashville puts together a good team, FA's will definitely give it a thought. Maybe we're not likely to see 15 deals, but few NHL teams have actually given out those contracts.

They'll give it a look, sure, but the thing that will hold them back will be Nashville's budget/ability to actually build a very good team.

But regardless the point is that Nashville won't be a good team. This will make them a kind of bad team and next year's deep UFA class that you reference will probably avoid them like the plague.

There isn't a single player (even if they were signed long term) on the Leafs that I wouldn't move for 2 of Nashville's 1sts and 2 of Philly's.

Well, I think that says a ton more about the players on the Leafs than the value of those picks. Philly's picks are likely to  be in the 20's. Picks that high...they don't buy good young players. They buy the Paul Gaustad's of the world.

Like I said before (or at least hinted at), Nashville could re-make that roster faster than a lot of people think if they don't match.

Again, I think you're putting way too much stock in the value of the picks they'd get from Philly. They'd get good prospects from them but they'd be searching for ways to add elite players. I mean, you can say "Well, they found Weber so they can find other good players" but Nashville isn't a powerhouse. They're a good, not great team, with a decent system but as is they're desperate for elite forwards.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

If Weber wanted a trade, this seems like a dumb way to go about it. If Nash matches, he's there for life, unless he demands a trade, which seems like another hassle. Maybe he just wanted a contract done and over with?

 

[maplesyrup]

Could be both parties wanted someone else to set the price? A third party mediator of sorts?

 

[Corn Flake]

Could be both parties wanted someone else to set the price? A third party mediator of sorts?

I think this is more likely, or at least from the Weber camp as a way to get what he wanted from Nashville.  Could certainly see them using the Suter deal as the barometer and this deal sounds as if it is structured very similar.  This forces the issue and finally puts it to bed.

Too many GM's sitting on their hands with big name players and the lack of movement is frustrating for everyone.  This at least gets one deal done.

Weird to think if Nashville did walk that in Philli, Luke Schenn would be the 6th highest paid d-man on the team.