Sharp signs 5 year extension with Hawks.

[Kin]

I'm actually having one now! Okay, so  5.25 or North for another 25G, 55 pt season? If those are the numbers you insist on basing the conversation on then yeah, I just might deal him if there is a fair deal to be had . Gimme 30G and 70 pts then different story.

Right, which brings us back to your insistence that Grabo should go below market which you seem to be more or less alone in.

 

[maplesyrup]

I'm actually having one now! Okay, so  5.25 or North for another 25G, 55 pt season? If those are the numbers you insist on basing the conversation on then yeah, I just might deal him if there is a fair deal to be had . Gimme 30G and 70 pts then different story.

Right, which brings us back to your insistence that Grabo should go below market which you seem to be more or less alone in.

If 5.25 is below market for Grabs then Sharp is colossally below market at 5.9 which brings us full circle to my original point. - Sharp's deal shouldn't really be looked at when trying to figure out a number for Grabovski.

 

[Kin]

If 5.25 is below market for Grabs then Sharp is colossally below market at 5.9 which brings us full circle to my original point. - Sharp's deal shouldn't really be looked at when trying to figure out a number for Grabovski.

Well, for starters, that may very well be true about Sharp. On the open market, considering what we just saw go down, Sharp very well may have gotten significantly more per season than he got if he found himself on the open market and willing to go somewhere like Long Island or Florida.

Secondly, I think you're a little unfairly down on Grabo in comparing him to Sharp. Factor in linemates and I don't think there's a huge difference in value between the seasons each guy just had. Especially when you include that centres are going to command a premium.

Lastly, I still don't understand your original point. Any contract can be used as a benchmark for any other contract.

 

[dappleganger]

As is though, 4.5 is definitely lower than what Grabo could get on the open market. Personally, if I really wanted to sign him I'd acknowledge that fact and work within those parameters. Burke could decide that he wants to see how this season shakes out before offering a long-term deal but that comes with the risk of Grabo having as good or better of a season which will increase his price.

I don't know if 4.5 would be lower, or at least substantially lower than what grabs would have got on the open market this year.

I think he'd slot in right around what Tomas Fleischmann got (4.5m). I don't think he would have received north of 5m+. I think his value would have been right around 4.5-5. I also think if he wanted to play for a competitive team he would be closer to 4.5m.

4.5m would be good value for Grabs but I think there's still a stigma about the player who apparently punches woman in bars.  :-\

 

[Kin]

I don't know if 4.5 would be lower, or at least substantially lower than what grabs would have got on the open market this year.

I think he'd slot in right around what Tomas Fleischmann got (4.5m). I don't think he would have received north of 5m+. I think his value would have been right around 4.5-5. I also think if he wanted to play for a competitive team he would be closer to 4.5m.

I think that between Fleischmann/Leino it's hard not to say that Grabo had a significantly better year than either guy and so would probably see a pretty good bump on either guy in terms of salary. Leino, again, scored 19 with 54 points. Fleischmann's best season is 23 goals, 51 points. Scoring 29/58 while playing a defensively responsible centre is going to be worth more than either of those.

 

[maplesyrup]

If 5.25 is below market for Grabs then Sharp is colossally below market at 5.9 which brings us full circle to my original point. - Sharp's deal shouldn't really be looked at when trying to figure out a number for Grabovski.

Well, for starters, that may very well be true about Sharp. On the open market, considering what we just saw go down, Sharp very well may have gotten significantly more per season than he got if he found himself on the open market and willing to go somewhere like Long Island or Florida.

Secondly, I think you're a little unfairly down on Grabo in comparing him to Sharp. Factor in linemates and I don't think there's a huge difference in value between the seasons each guy just had. Especially when you include that centres are going to command a premium.

Lastly, I still don't understand your original point. Any contract can be used as a benchmark for any other contract.

I usually like to look beyond one season when trying to establish the value of player on a multi-year deal. I know you do (just throwing that in there to tone the sarcasm down a bit) and well sure, I suppose we technically could use the Crosby contract as a benchmark for Timmy Brent but these things aren't usually wise to do. Look, I like Grabovski. I've stated that many times. I just don't think he should approach Shapr money unless of course (as I said) Bowman caught  Sharp's agent napping.   

 

[Kin]

I usually like to look beyond one season when trying to establish the value of player on a multi-year deal.

Sure but remember this is with Grabo having another hypothetical season similar to what he had last year. So Grabo would be working with quite a few solid seasons under his belt.

Along those lines, I don't know how much it changes things to look backwards. Sharp still has an edge but, again, I think a lot of that edge can be attributed to outside factors.

I know you do (just throwing that in there to tone the sarcasm down a bit) and well sure, I suppose we technically could use the Crosby contract as a benchmark for Timmy Brent but these things aren't usually wise to do.

The problem with using that example is that Crosby's contract and Brent's contract are going to be more informed by cap considerations/minimum's then how they relate to each other.

Sharp and Grabo are much closer. Both are guys who are going to score in a certain range and who are probably going to be complimentary players rather than centrepieces for a franchise. Sharp's produced a little more than Grabs, Grabs is used as a centre more. Like I said, they're closer than you're making them out to be.

Look, I like Grabovski. I've stated that many times. I just don't think he should approach Shapr money unless of course (as I said) Bowman caught  Sharp's agent napping. 

Well, yeah, you've said "I like Grabo, I just think he should be signed below market value" which doesn't really read like liking him much at all.

Another thing to remember is the established salary structure of a team. When Sharp is negotiating his deal, he's going to be mindful of the fact that Kane/Toews are making 6.3 a year and Keith and Seabrook are where they are. That's going to inform Sharp's position as well as be indicative of the reasons Sharp may have to take less to stay where he is.

There is no comparable salary structure with the Leafs. Excluding Reimer, I think Grabo's only real competition for the Leafs' MVP last year was Kulemin.

 

[maplesyrup]

There is no comparable salary structure with the Leafs. Excluding Reimer, I think Grabo's only real competition for the Leafs' MVP last year was Kulemin.

I agree with that. It doesn't mean you have to pay your 2 or 3 best forward (or whatever he is) on YOUR team relative to the 2 or 3 best forward on someone else's team. - Especially when their forwards are considerably better.- and while you feel the gap between Grabovski and Sharp are negligible (you're free to feel that way) , I tend to think otherwise.   

 

[dappleganger]

I don't know if 4.5 would be lower, or at least substantially lower than what grabs would have got on the open market this year.

I think he'd slot in right around what Tomas Fleischmann got (4.5m). I don't think he would have received north of 5m+. I think his value would have been right around 4.5-5. I also think if he wanted to play for a competitive team he would be closer to 4.5m.

I think that between Fleischmann/Leino it's hard not to say that Grabo had a significantly better year than either guy and so would probably see a pretty good bump on either guy in terms of salary. Leino, again, scored 19 with 54 points. Fleischmann's best season is 23 goals, 51 points. Scoring 29/58 while playing a defensively responsible centre is going to be worth more than either of those.

Eye of the beholder.

Both Fleischmann and Leino averaged more points per time on ice than Grabs so I think they do make a good comparison, or at least the most logical ones.

I personally would rather have Grabs at 4.5m than either Leino or Fleischmann but it's possible GM's are looking at untapped potential.

Fleischmann especially looked good with the increased playing time he got after his trade to Colorado scoring 21 points in 22 games.

I don't think it's a given Grabs would have got significantly more than either Leino or Fleisch.

Edit: I also think both Fleischmann and Leino are a better comparison than Sharp when it comes to salary compensation.

 

[Kin]

Both Fleischmann and Leino averaged more points per time on ice than Grabs so I think they do make a good comparison, or at least the most logical ones.

I agree. That's what I'm basing my statements on(well, not the points per TOI thing which is fairly ridiculous). Grabo would have gotten significantly more than Leino because of the premium put on centres and goal scorers while he does better than Fleischmann by virtue of actually having played the whole season.

 

[Kin]

I agree with that. It doesn't mean you have to pay your 2 or 3 best forward (or whatever he is) on YOUR team relative to the 2 or 3 best forward on someone else's team

No, and that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that Kane/Toews' salaries are going to limit Sharp's whereas Grabo has no comparable limiting player on the Leafs right now. Grabo's salary as a UFA will relate to the UFA market.

and while you feel the gap between Grabovski and Sharp are negligible (you're free to feel that way) , I tend to think otherwise. 

That's fine, I just don't think it's based on much.

 

[dappleganger]

Both Fleischmann and Leino averaged more points per time on ice than Grabs so I think they do make a good comparison, or at least the most logical ones.

I agree. That's what I'm basing my statements on. Grabo would have gotten significantly more than Leino because of the premium put on centres and goal scorers while he does better than Fleischmann by virtue of actually having played the whole season.

I agree. I just think Grabs would have received closer to what Fleisch/Leino got as opposed to what Sharp just signed for.

So Grabs slides in somewhere between 4.5-5.9m? I think it's closer to 4.5m but that's totally my opinion.

 

[maplesyrup]

So Grabs slides in somewhere between 4.5-5.9m? I think it's closer to 4.5m but that's totally my opinion.

Obviously I'm with you.

 

[Kin]

I agree. I just think Grabs would have received closer to what Fleisch/Leino got as opposed to what Sharp just signed for.

But that's if you're arguing that Sharp got market value. I think Sharp could have easily gotten 6.5 on the open market. I agree, I think Grabo probably gets somewhere between what those two got and what Sharp would get on the open market. I just think that could still end up in the 5.5 area.

 

[dappleganger]

So Grabs slides in somewhere between 4.5-5.9m? I think it's closer to 4.5m but that's totally my opinion.

Obviously I'm with you.

I don't know. The way this offseason went I wouldn't have been surprised to see Grabs get 5m. Should get interesting after the new year to see if he re-signs and for how much.

 

[maplesyrup]

So Grabs slides in somewhere between 4.5-5.9m? I think it's closer to 4.5m but that's totally my opinion.

Obviously I'm with you.

I don't know. The way this offseason went I wouldn't have been surprised to see Grabs get 5m. Should get interesting after the new year to see if he re-signs and for how much.

For sure. Though Burke doesn't strike me as the king of GM who would offer Grabovski 5.25 x 5 (outside of a huge season this year by him) when all he'd offer Richards is 7 x 6.

 

[dappleganger]

I agree. I just think Grabs would have received closer to what Fleisch/Leino got as opposed to what Sharp just signed for.

But that's if you're arguing that Sharp got market value. I think Sharp could have easily gotten 6.5 on the open market. I agree, I think Grabo probably gets somewhere between what those two got and what Sharp would get on the open market. I just think that could still end up in the 5.5 area.

That's true. Grab's not far off Kessel's 5.4m in terms of production on the ice.

 

[Damian]

I agree. I just think Grabs would have received closer to what Fleisch/Leino got as opposed to what Sharp just signed for.

But that's if you're arguing that Sharp got market value. I think Sharp could have easily gotten 6.5 on the open market. I agree, I think Grabo probably gets somewhere between what those two got and what Sharp would get on the open market. I just think that could still end up in the 5.5 area.

Although to be fair I think Kessels numbers go up with a bonifide #1 in the middle... here's hoping anyway

That's true. Grab's not far off Kessel's 5.4m in terms of production on the ice.

 

[dappleganger]

Both Fleischmann and Leino averaged more points per time on ice than Grabs so I think they do make a good comparison, or at least the most logical ones.

I agree. That's what I'm basing my statements on(well, not the points per TOI thing which is fairly ridiculous). Grabo would have gotten significantly more than Leino because of the premium put on centres and goal scorers while he does better than Fleischmann by virtue of actually having played the whole season.

I liked the edit you made to your post.

Production value (the average ice time per point recorded) is a good stat to judge a player's contribution on the ice. If you take a look you'll see the star players in the league also lead the way in production value.

Sidney Crosby led the league in production value with a point every 13:36 of ice time. 

You probably also put little value in a stat like HR per at bat.

 

[Kin]

You probably also put little value in a stat like HR per at bat.

Compared to a proper cumulative number like WARP? Yeah.

I mean, for starters, it assumes all ice time is equal, which we know isn't true.