Steve Stamkos?

[ZBBM]

I don't know about jvr Bozak lupul but if they sign Stamkos it'll be Kadri who is gone.

 

[bustaheims]

If you remove October, (which I obviously know you can't do) they were one of the hottest teams in the league until JVR got injured and definitely weren't trending down.

In the 20 games before JvR was hurt, their record was 9-8-3. That's not the kind of record one of the hottest teams in the league puts up.

 

[Kin]

Thanks to October, not November and December when they put Babcock's system together with a healthy roster.

If you remove October, (which I obviously know you can't do) they were one of the hottest teams in the league until JVR got injured and definitely weren't trending down.

Every bad team has some ok runs. They were 4-4 in JVR's last 8 so the "hottest team in the league" was definitely cooling down. They got some unsustainably good goaltending from Reimer and went that went away they returned to being lousy. Then came the trades and they were always going to bomb after that.

 

[Frank E]

No sir, I disagree that it should be characterized as "pretty tight." 

Without Stamkos, and with JvR, Lupul, and Bozak, the Leafs have about $27M to retain Zaitsev and Hyman, add 4 more defencemen, 4 more forwards and 2 goalies - so, 10 players. With Stamkos on the type of contract he's likely to get, and one of JvR or Bozak gone, that number becomes closer to $20M before the team sniffs at addressing the goaltending situation, or re-signing any of their pending RFAs that summer (Zaitsev, Hyman, Carrick, Marincin, Corrado, Brown, and some others). In my world, that's tight, we're likely talking half of that just for the starting goalie, Zaitsev, and Hyman. It basically leaves no room for improvements elsewhere.

I thought this was a decent write up about the cap situation moving forward -
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/05/10/steven-stamkos-toronto-maple-leafs-salary-cap/

THe problem is that article doesn't take into account the LTIR/performance bonus issues, probably underestimates Stamkos' salary by $1M-$2M, and quite possibly overestimates the growth in the cap (not significantly in the first few season, but possibly beyond). I think it's overly optimistic, and ignoring a very important issue.

Your concern is signing 10 non-core players with $20m for 2017-2018?

I don't think that's much of a problem.  Have a look at the non-core cap hits of the best teams in the league.

And really, I don't think they're going to be able to retain everybody, and there'll be some turnover there...which is exactly why they keep drafting and developing, and keep moving younger cheaper players into NHL roles.

 

[bustaheims]

Your concern is signing 10 non-core players with $20m for 2017-2018?

I don't think that's much of a problem.  Have a look at the non-core cap hits of the best teams in the league.

Well, sure, if you don't consider your starting goalie part of your core, and you expect to sign all of your support pieces for $1.5M or less.

 

[Frank E]

Your concern is signing 10 non-core players with $20m for 2017-2018?

I don't think that's much of a problem.  Have a look at the non-core cap hits of the best teams in the league.

Well, sure, if you don't consider your starting goalie part of your core, and you expect to sign all of your support pieces for $1.5M or less.

What's your projected budget for a decent goalie?

4.5
3.5
3
2.5
2
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.8

 

[herman]

Your concern is signing 10 non-core players with $20m for 2017-2018?

I don't think that's much of a problem.  Have a look at the non-core cap hits of the best teams in the league.

Well, sure, if you don't consider your starting goalie part of your core, and you expect to sign all of your support pieces for $1.5M or less.

What's your projected budget for a decent goalie?

4.5
3.5
3
2.5
2
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.8

With no real goalie in the current pipeline at this time, and hoping to start pushing for contention in 2 years, I'd expect we'd have to fish in the UFA goalie pool, or spring for a trade. Then that cost (for someone worth having) I would imagine is in the 6-9M neighbourhood.

 

[TBLeafer]

No sir, I disagree that it should be characterized as "pretty tight." 

Without Stamkos, and with JvR, Lupul, and Bozak, the Leafs have about $27M to retain Zaitsev and Hyman, add 4 more defencemen, 4 more forwards and 2 goalies - so, 10 players. With Stamkos on the type of contract he's likely to get, and one of JvR or Bozak gone, that number becomes closer to $20M before the team sniffs at addressing the goaltending situation, or re-signing any of their pending RFAs that summer (Zaitsev, Hyman, Carrick, Marincin, Corrado, Brown, and some others). In my world, that's tight, we're likely talking half of that just for the starting goalie, Zaitsev, and Hyman. It basically leaves no room for improvements elsewhere.

I thought this was a decent write up about the cap situation moving forward -
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/05/10/steven-stamkos-toronto-maple-leafs-salary-cap/

THe problem is that article doesn't take into account the LTIR/performance bonus issues, probably underestimates Stamkos' salary by $1M-$2M, and quite possibly overestimates the growth in the cap (not significantly in the first few season, but possibly beyond). I think it's overly optimistic, and ignoring a very important issue.

Your concern is signing 10 non-core players with $20m for 2017-2018?

I don't think that's much of a problem.  Have a look at the non-core cap hits of the best teams in the league.

And really, I don't think they're going to be able to retain everybody, and there'll be some turnover there...which is exactly why they keep drafting and developing, and keep moving younger cheaper players into NHL roles.

No question about it.

Some teams manage to be competitive with 2 8M + AAV contracts on their team consecutively.  The Leafs will just have one if they sign Stamkos for the foreseeable future, unless JVR absolutely shines over the next 2 seasons, or they lock in Matthews and Marner at a high RFA premium when their ELC's expire.

They should have too much trouble keeping the best of who they want through most of this next decade.

 

[bustaheims]

What's your projected budget for a decent goalie?

If we're looking to not waste half of Stamkos' contract, probably $5M-$7M on a starter, and $1.5M-$2M on a high quality backup. If we're looking in the UFA market, there really only appears to be one high-quality option in that time span, and he'll probably cost $8M+.

I mean, if you look at the quality starting goalies around the league right now, they're all basically coming in in the $6M+ range, five or take a few hundred K.

 

[Kin]

What's your projected budget for a decent goalie?

4.5
3.5
3
2.5
2
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.8

So in your scenario either the Leafs are paying their #1 goalie 3.5 million or Zaitsev, who people are planning on being a top pairing guy, is willing to sign a deal as a pending UFA for 3.5 million?

 

[bustaheims]

So in your scenario either the Leafs are paying their #1 goalie 3.5 million or Zaitsev, who people are planning on being a top pairing guy, is willing to sign a deal as a pending UFA for 3.5 million?

Zaitsev will be an RFA, but, still, if he's anywhere near as good as people hope him to be, he's not signing for less than $4.5M per if you want him on a multi-year deal, and, if you don't, you're just looking at another jump in salary for him the next summer.

 

[Kin]

Zaitsev will be an RFA, but, still, if he's anywhere near as good as people hope him to be, he's not signing for less than $4.5M per if you want him on a multi-year deal, and, if you don't, you're just looking at another jump in salary for him the next summer.

Ah, see, I figured the conversation was about re-signing Zaitsev in a few years time. Yeah, I agree, he won't lock up long term at that number.

 

[TBLeafer]

What's your projected budget for a decent goalie?

4.5
3.5
3
2.5
2
1
1
0.9
0.8
0.8

So in your scenario either the Leafs are paying their #1 goalie 3.5 million or Zaitsev, who people are planning on being a top pairing guy, is willing to sign a deal as a pending UFA for 3.5 million?

Wouldn't Zaitsev be a pending RFA, given his age?

EDIT:  NVM, I see that was answered in the above post.

 

[Frank E]

So in your scenario either the Leafs are paying their #1 goalie 3.5 million or Zaitsev, who people are planning on being a top pairing guy, is willing to sign a deal as a pending UFA for 3.5 million?

Zaitsev will be an RFA, but, still, if he's anywhere near as good as people hope him to be, he's not signing for less than $4.5M per if you want him on a multi-year deal, and, if you don't, you're just looking at another jump in salary for him the next summer.

So re-jig the numbers then, whatever. It obviously just an example.

Did you even bother checking what the non-core cap hits of the Cup finalists are?

I'm not really interested in screwing around speculating what it's going to take to re-sign a guy that hasn't even played an NHL game yet.  I'm more interested in how Pittsburgh won a Cup with a roster on the final game that had $11m spent on 10 guys...6 of them were under $1m.  That's a model I'd like to look into further. 

So yeah, $20m on 10 guys is lots, even if $6m of it is a goalie.

 

[Kin]

Did you even bother checking what the non-core cap hits of the Cup finalists are?

I did. With San Jose you immediately run into problems. Using Vlasic as a Zaitsev comp(in that they'd both be #2 defensemen ideally) then between San Jose's #2 and 4-7 defensemen and their #1 goalie you're more or less at 20 million and that's with getting a great deal on Vlasic.

Pittsburgh's not all that different. Their #2 and #4-7 defensive players + Fleury adds up to 16-17 million.

 

[mr grieves]

What's your projected budget for a decent goalie?

If we're looking to not waste half of Stamkos' contract, probably $5M-$7M on a starter, and $1.5M-$2M on a high quality backup. If we're looking in the UFA market, there really only appears to be one high-quality option in that time span, and he'll probably cost $8M+.

I mean, if you look at the quality starting goalies around the league right now, they're all basically coming in in the $6M+ range, five or take a few hundred K.

Maybe if you're starting from GeneralFanager and looking at the cap hit of playoff teams' starters... in other words, looking for what you want to find.

Here's the top dozen goaltenders last season by save percentage, filtering for > 40GP (so, some injured are cut), and, after that, the list of goalies making over $5m.

I dunno what you make of it, but I see it as support for the argument, made by Mirtle and others, that there's not much value in paying goaltenders in that range, given their season-to-season volatility and it being a buyer's market.

Mirtle: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/why-nhl-teams-should-stop-spending-big-on-most-goalies/article24058773/

So, of all the ways I'd want to model my team on the Hawks, Wings, Kings, or Pens, this isn't one of them...

 

[Bullfrog]

Though not in Malkin/Pavelski territory, Kadri would still be one of the best 2nd line centres in the league. Given his improvements in non-offensive areas and his physical play, I'm even more confident in stating that.

Keep in mind this is a partial list of #2 C's in the league:

Jeff Carter
Ryan O'Reilly/Jack Eichel
RNH
Ryan Kesler
Malkin
Brayden Schenn/Couturier
Whoever you want to call the #2 in Tampa
Kuznetzov
Logan Couture
Jonathan Huberdeau
Jason Spezza
Backes/Stastny
Mackinnon/Duchene
Krejci

Then there are some others who are pretty good. I really don't know where Kadri would rank but I'd guess it's roughly middle of the pack.

That seems reasonable after seeing that list put together. Here's hoping his offense will pick up, because he's otherwise got a well rounded game.

 

[mr grieves]

I'm good either way, though I don't see the urgency in signing him. And though it is wise to be cautious, I'm optimistic Matthews is going to be a top-5 centre (top 10 at least) within three years. In which case, Matthews/Kadri is a very good 1-2. I think the larger need is on defense and in goal.

I don't think Kadri is good enough in that spot if the goal is a championship.

I hope Matthews is the Crosby or Thornton, but I'm less optimistic that Kadri can be the Leafs' Malkin or Pavelski.  This is kind of the rationale that I'm using to justify the Stamkos signing.

I'm still hopeful that Nylander could be that guy.  It's early, but I just don't know if he's good enough either.

You're probably not wrong, but assuming Marner is our Kane...

Though not in Malkin/Pavelski territory, Kadri would still be one of the best 2nd line centres in the league. Given his improvements in non-offensive areas and his physical play, I'm even more confident in stating that.

Hard to say. The two-way game is nice, but he hasn't really been scoring enough to be a plausible 2C on a good team. But I don't know if he really slots in there anyway. I'd guess Matthews will be a 1C, and Nylander and Kadri will be 2A and 2B. Instead of comparing Kadri to other teams' 2Cs, I'd be looking at the three centers the Leafs are bringing up against the 3 centers of other teams around the league.

 

[Kin]

I dunno what you make of it, but I see it as support for the argument, made by Mirtle and others, that there's not much value in paying goaltenders in that range, given their season-to-season volatility and it being a buyer's market.

I don't fundamentally disagree with that but keep in mind that this idea of going out and signing a top quality starting goalie is tied to the idea of not trying to develop one yourself and, again, spending the first 3 or 4 years of any UFA contract largely sputtering and not posing much of a threat to the rest of the league. I don't think anyone is really advocating signing a big money UFA goalie but developing goalies takes time and it's not the anti-signing Stamkos people who seem in a hurry.

 

[TBLeafer]

I dunno what you make of it, but I see it as support for the argument, made by Mirtle and others, that there's not much value in paying goaltenders in that range, given their season-to-season volatility and it being a buyer's market.

I don't fundamentally disagree with that but keep in mind that this idea of going out and signing a top quality starting goalie is tied to the idea of not trying to develop one yourself and, again, spending the first 3 or 4 years of any UFA contract largely sputtering and not posing much of a threat to the rest of the league. I don't think anyone is really advocating signing a big money UFA goalie but developing goalies takes time and it's not the anti-signing Stamkos people who seem in a hurry.

We already did develop one ourselves, but then traded for his replacement upon making playoffs and after proving once again he was the better starter on the team, we rented his services at the deadline with the possibility of never bringing him back.

Yep.  This Shanaplan rebuild is in no means traditional.