Steve Stamkos?

[Kin]

A 26 and under core from this point forward is something that the Leafs currently have even with Stammer and a core that young can also stay good for a long time.

Well, I think this is where the discussion sort of gets to the stalemate it's been at. You look at the Leafs and see the existence of this "core". Right now I don't really see one. I see a lot of intriguing pieces that could comprise that sort of group but until they actually prove themselves capable I don't think the time is right to add to them via the UFA market. I certainly don't see the goaltending/defense aspects of that core and those typically take the longest to develop.

Stamkos may very well be 30+ before this team has those elements in place. At which point the high value of his contract will effectively be gone.

 

[Frank E]

Why do we need the core to be of same age?

Chicago's 2013 cup winning "core":

Saad (1992)
Kane & Toews (1988)
Hjalmersson (1987)
Seabrook (1985)
Crawford (1984)
Kieth (1983)
Sharp (1981)
Hossa (1979)

This is where Chicago as an example breaks apart. We can't be looking to build the 2013 Blackhawks because the likelihood of the Leafs ever being able to have a 28 year old Norris caliber defenseman coming in at 5.5 against the cap or an elite free agent like Hossa at 5.25 just isn't realistic with the current CBA.

The reason that, ideally, you want your core to be roughly the same age is so that you can take as many shots as possible with them before the cap forces you to make hard choices. That doesn't mean you ignore continuing to add good prospects, so guys like Ladd and Versteeg and Byfuglien and Bolland who were in that range can be replaced and the team still be competitive, but Chicago has had it relatively easy because of the contracts they were able to sign under the old CBA. The Leafs will have a tougher time juggling those players once they hit RFA status.

We've discussed this before around here, but I think it's pretty tough to model much under this new CBA when you have 22 year old Brandon Saad's signing for $6m coming off of 52 point seasons and a deal that takes him to 28 years old. 

You certainly don't have a whole lot of savings vs. UFA in those types of situations.

 

[Kin]

Well I'm taking top prospects along with existing core players so little bit of column A and B there.

Marner>Kucherov
Matthews>Namestnikov
Kadri>Killorn
JVR>Palat
Nylander>Johnston

etc...

Again, I'm not entirely sure what Tampa has to do with it but I'm not entirely onboard with just declaring the prospects the Leafs have to be better than guys who have already had 30 goal or 70 point seasons in the NHL. You're also leaving out guys like Hedman, Drouin, some of the Lightning's better prospects...

Regardless Stamkos not being a fit in Tampa still doesn't mean he's a fit in Toronto.

 

[Deebo]

The sort of depth you're talking about took Pittsburgh a significant amount of time to assemble though. So that three or four years out becomes five or six and already we're talking about nearing the end of the Stamkos contract.

5-6 years to find depth? I think they should be able to do it quicker than that.

They may have a bunch of those pieces already in the system. They also have a bunch of early picks in the next couple drafts. I don't think adding Stamkos makes it any more difficult to assemble depth either.

That's also operating under the assumption that Rielly becomes as good as Letang and the team isn't still looking for someone who is.

Yeah, I'll admit that I'm pretty high on Rielly, I think he is well on his way to become a quality #1 defender.

 

[Kin]

We've discussed this before around here, but I think it's pretty tough to model much under this new CBA when you have 22 year old Brandon Saad's signing for $6m coming off of 52 point seasons and a deal that takes him to 28 years old. 

You certainly don't have a whole lot of savings vs. UFA in those types of situations.

Well, that and just the inflationary nature of winning on role players and their salaries. Kessel's value being depressed last summer almost certainly was in part because he'd been tagged with the blame for a lot of went on here. Dave Bolland, and his contract, is sort of the mirror image of that.

 

[herman]

The sort of depth you're talking about took Pittsburgh a significant amount of time to assemble though. So that three or four years out becomes five or six and already we're talking about nearing the end of the Stamkos contract.

5-6 years to find depth? I think they should be able to do it quicker than that.

They may have a bunch of those pieces already in the system. They also have a bunch of early picks in the next couple drafts. I don't think adding Stamkos makes it any more difficult to assemble depth either.

I think adding Stamkos would push our picks deeper, and thus make it slightly more difficult to acquire high quality depth internally. He could push us from a bottom-5 finish a middling finish.

 

[Kin]

I don't think adding Stamkos makes it any more difficult to assemble depth either.

Well, it does only in the sense of tying up cap space. Something the Penguins needed to add pieces like Kessel at a relatively low cost. 

And 5-6 years isn't some sort of crazy estimate either. If you look at a team like the Blackhawks and when they started adding the pieces that would serve as the depth on their first Cup team, 5-6 years is a pretty fair guess. Keith in '02, Byfuglien and Seabrook in '03, Bolland and Brouwer in '04...

I don't know if you should build your expectations for the Leafs around the idea that they'll be significantly better at drafting and developing players than the Blackhawks were. 

 

[TBLeafer]

A 26 and under core from this point forward is something that the Leafs currently have even with Stammer and a core that young can also stay good for a long time.

Well, I think this is where the discussion sort of gets to the stalemate it's been at. You look at the Leafs and see the existence of this "core". Right now I don't really see one. I see a lot of intriguing pieces that could comprise that sort of group but until they actually prove themselves capable I don't think the time is right to add to them via the UFA market. I certainly don't see the goaltending/defense aspects of that core and those typically take the longest to develop.

Stamkos may very well be 30+ before this team has those elements in place. At which point the high value of his contract will effectively be gone.

I guess I'm a little more optimistic than that.  The current core starts with JVR and Kadri for at least 2 more seasons, unless we trade JVR, then it starts with Kadri.

Discounted are the likes of Bozak (who I think is as good as gone for futures this summer), Lupul (bury him in the AHL, buy him out, Robidas him, trade him ideally if at all possible, I don't care), Laich, PAP, etc.

Pittsburgh shows us this season that you really can't have too much of a good thing offensively.

New top six in no particular order with Stamkos:

Stamkos
JVR
Kadri
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

On D:

Rielly
Gardiner
Zaitsev (who really impressed Babcock)
Carrick

That's a really good start to a new core 10, IMO.

Now look at the depth:

Komarov
Brown
Sosh
Loov
Gauthier
Marincin
Hunwick
Kapanen

The future starts to look brighter.

 

[bustaheims]

5-6 years to find depth? I think they should be able to do it quicker than that.

They may have a bunch of those pieces already in the system. They also have a bunch of early picks in the next couple drafts. I don't think adding Stamkos makes it any more difficult to assemble depth either.

Well, it's not just about finding, but about developing, grooming, etc. Barring a trade, the team is still likely at least 3 years away from having the type of goaltending they need to be a Cup contender - so, that's really the minimum timeline we should be looking at, and even that assumes that a goalie the Leafs draft in the upcoming draft develops into a starter. There's also the need to add another top pairing defenceman. Best case scenario there is they draft one who is close to ready in the 1st round next year, but that's also likely a 3 year timeline until they're at the point in their game to take that role on a contender. Combine that with the two years the Leafs have spent building up their depth, and you're looking at 5-6 years from the beginning of the process to Cup contender - and that's without any significant setbacks, miscalculations, etc. At that point, you've already wasted half of Stamkos' contract just building to the point where he might be able to be a difference maker.

 

[TBLeafer]

The sort of depth you're talking about took Pittsburgh a significant amount of time to assemble though. So that three or four years out becomes five or six and already we're talking about nearing the end of the Stamkos contract.

5-6 years to find depth? I think they should be able to do it quicker than that.

They may have a bunch of those pieces already in the system. They also have a bunch of early picks in the next couple drafts. I don't think adding Stamkos makes it any more difficult to assemble depth either.

I think adding Stamkos would push our picks deeper, and thus make it slightly more difficult to acquire high quality depth internally. He could push us from a bottom-5 finish a middling finish.

Not worried about that at all personally.  I think it's just fine now if we're done with bottom five finishes.  Time for the next stage where we start to get a whole lot better.

 

[TBLeafer]

5-6 years to find depth? I think they should be able to do it quicker than that.

They may have a bunch of those pieces already in the system. They also have a bunch of early picks in the next couple drafts. I don't think adding Stamkos makes it any more difficult to assemble depth either.

Well, it's not just about finding, but about developing, grooming, etc. Barring a trade, the team is still likely at least 3 years away from having the type of goaltending they need to be a Cup contender - so, that's really the minimum timeline we should be looking at, and even that assumes that a goalie the Leafs draft in the upcoming draft develops into a starter. There's also the need to add another top pairing defenceman. Best case scenario there is they draft one who is close to ready in the 1st round next year, but that's also likely a 3 year timeline until they're at the point in their game to take that role on a contender. Combine that with the two years the Leafs have spent building up their depth, and you're looking at 5-6 years from the beginning of the process to Cup contender - and that's without any significant setbacks, miscalculations, etc. At that point, you've already wasted half of Stamkos' contract just building to the point where he might be able to be a difference maker.

I think it will be the season after next and we'll get a good goalie that will be freed up in line with the expansion draft if not this summer.

 

[bustaheims]

I think it will be the season after next and we'll get a good goalie that will be freed up in line with the expansion draft if not this summer.

That's a possibility, but I wouldn't build my team building strategy around a trade that might happen. There's a very good chance the Leafs won't get any of those goalies, either. There aren't that many good young goalies that are going to shake loose, and there are more teams with questions about their future in net than there are extra starting calibre goalies out there. Arizona, Buffalo, Calgary, Dallas, Edmonton, the Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Vancouver, and Winnipeg could all be players for the handful of goalies that might be shaken loose if there's an expansion draft next summer.

 

[Kin]

I guess I'm a little more optimistic than that.  The current core starts with JVR and Kadri for at least 2 more seasons, unless we trade JVR, then it starts with Kadri.

Discounted are the likes of Bozak (who I think is as good as gone for futures this summer), Lupul (bury him in the AHL, buy him out, Robidas him, trade him ideally if at all possible, I don't care), Laich, PAP, etc.

Pittsburgh shows us this season that you really can't have too much of a good thing offensively.

New top six in no particular order with Stamkos:

Stamkos
JVR
Kadri
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

On D:

Rielly
Gardiner
Zaitsev (who really impressed Babcock)
Carrick

That's a really good start to a new core 10, IMO.

Now look at the depth:

Komarov
Brown
Sosh
Loov
Gauthier
Marincin
Hunwick
Kapanen

The future starts to look brighter.

I don't think it's a matter of optimism, I think it's a question of being patient with the development process. For example I think Marner might very well be a fantastic NHL player but until he actually is there's no rush to treat him like one.

I look at your lists, for instance, and I still have much of the same questions. There's no goaltending, our top 6 forwards has 4 centers and two wings, the defense is thin without a proven #1 and so on. These things can be addressed, sure, but until they are the Leafs are better off waiting on using the limited cap space they'll have on outside resources so as to tailor the team specifically to the talents they have once they establish themselves.

This is an analogy I've brought up before in reference to this but putting the cart before the horse isn't a question of excessive optimism, it's just a misreading of where the team is.

 

[TBLeafer]

I guess I'm a little more optimistic than that.  The current core starts with JVR and Kadri for at least 2 more seasons, unless we trade JVR, then it starts with Kadri.

Discounted are the likes of Bozak (who I think is as good as gone for futures this summer), Lupul (bury him in the AHL, buy him out, Robidas him, trade him ideally if at all possible, I don't care), Laich, PAP, etc.

Pittsburgh shows us this season that you really can't have too much of a good thing offensively.

New top six in no particular order with Stamkos:

Stamkos
JVR
Kadri
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

On D:

Rielly
Gardiner
Zaitsev (who really impressed Babcock)
Carrick

That's a really good start to a new core 10, IMO.

Now look at the depth:

Komarov
Brown
Sosh
Loov
Gauthier
Marincin
Hunwick
Kapanen

The future starts to look brighter.

I don't think it's a matter of optimism, I think it's a question of being patient with the development process. For example I think Marner might very well be a fantastic NHL player but until he actually is there's no rush to treat him like one.

I look at your lists, for instance, and I still have much of the same questions. There's no goaltending, our top 6 forwards has 4 centers and two wings, the defense is thin without a proven #1 and so on. These things can be addressed, sure, but until they are the Leafs are better off waiting on using the limited cap space they'll have on outside resources so as to tailor the team specifically to the talents they have once they establish themselves.

This is an analogy I've brought up before in reference to this but putting the cart before the horse isn't a question of excessive optimism, it's just a misreading of where the team is.

Well I think the development process actually dates back to pre-Shanahan so that's where we're in the crux of the debate.

Bernier also came out of his funk after the Reimer trade so there's still some hope he can recover, too.

 

[Kin]

Plus Stammer is JVR's age anyway.

Probably worth mentioning that the long term cap projection you posted doesn't include the team keeping JVR and certainly not re-signing him with the hefty raise he's likely to be looking for in a couple of years.

 

[TBLeafer]

Plus Stammer is JVR's age anyway.

Probably worth mentioning that the long term cap projection you posted doesn't include the team keeping JVR and certainly not re-signing him with the hefty raise he's likely to be looking for in a couple of years.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean he can't be very useful for the next couple of seasons like Patrick Sharp was.  He's insulating the kids while they develop through their rookie and sophomore seasons.

 

[Kin]

Agreed, but that doesn't mean he can't be very useful for the next couple of seasons like Patrick Sharp was.  He's insulating the kids while they develop through their rookie and sophomore seasons.

Then you've lost me a little. Sharp was an integral part of the Blackhawks' 3 cups and a while ago you had JVR as part of a contending core. Do you think the Leafs are going to be cup contenders in the next year or two?

 

[TBLeafer]

Agreed, but that doesn't mean he can't be very useful for the next couple of seasons like Patrick Sharp was.  He's insulating the kids while they develop through their rookie and sophomore seasons.

Then you've lost me a little. Sharp was an integral part of the Blackhawks' 3 cups and a while ago you had JVR as part of a contending core. Do you think the Leafs are going to be cup contenders in the next year or two?

Sharp wasn't so integral if he became so tradeable, along with Saad.  Panarin offset Sharp nicely.  Those that were integral stayed locked up.  I think JVR could contribute nicely to a bid in the 2017/18 season while in his contract year and will have an expiration date as an integral core player at that time.

 

[Kin]

Sharp wasn't so integral if he became so tradeable, along with Saad.  Panarin offset Sharp nicely.  Those that were integral stayed locked up.  I think JVR could contribute nicely to a bid in the 2017/18 season while in his contract year and will have an expiration date as an integral core player at that time.

Sharp was their leading playoff goal scorer in 2 of their 3 cup years. I mean, by your same logic I could say Sharp clearly was integral as they traded him away and couldn't get out of the first round without him. 


That said we're probably at an impasse if you really think the team can genuinely make a run at things during JVR's current contract.

 

[Tigger]

Well IMO we're in a much better position now than Tampa to "make it work" because we have higher quality pieces overall, save our goaltending.  Tampa has to pay through the teeth this Summer for the triplets, which will have the highest negative impact on cap per player than anyone. Think 4-6 mil increase per triplet to their ELC most likely.

Right but again my issue isn't with whether or not the Leafs can fit the salary under the cap, it's whether or not they should given the relative uncertainty about the future. Tampa's situation doesn't have much bearing on what's right for the Leafs.

Also, I don't know I agree that we've got higher quality pieces than Tampa save goaltending. Unless you're only talking about prospects.

Well I'm taking top prospects along with existing core players so little bit of column A and B there.

Marner>Kucherov
Matthews>Namestnikov
Kadri>Killorn
JVR>Palat
Nylander>Johnston

etc...

This nicely outlines the disconnect for me, I'm hopeful that Marner, Matthews and Nylander are going to be very good players but one of them has played 22 NHL games, 2 of them none and another is probably not in the Leafs long term plans. Banking on them quickly becoming a contending core is a pretty good bet for the house. I'm going to fall back on Babcocks own words, "for the next three years people are going to think we don't have a clue what we're doing".