Steve Stamkos?

[Kin]

It's not the Kessel approach.

Would you have been ok with having Kessel, Seguin and Hamilton?

You're right that adding Stamkos wouldn't be like the Kessel situation in terms of risk or asset cost but I don't think that was really the point. I think the way it's like the Kessel situation is that they'd be attempting to jump-start what should be a long process and, in doing so, they're making it less likely that the Leafs will be able to add some of the players they'll need to.

The Leafs aren't one or two pieces away right now. They're multiple pieces even if every high profile young talent in the organization develops as we'd like them to.

 

[Redleaf]

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Steven Stamkos has been very judicious with what he favorites (or now as it's called, likes) on Twitter. That's probably because one of the few times he favorited any tweet, it was a link to a story in The Hockey News about him becoming Toronto's LeBron and returning to his native city to join the Maple Leafs.

That was two years ago. Since then, Stamkos hasn't pressed the little heart button very much. In fact, he only has one like on his Twitter account as of right now. And would you look at that? It's another link to a video about the possibility of him joining the Toronto Maple Leafs. In fact, it even asks the question of if Toronto should pursue him (H/T to Andrew Berkshire for the heads up).

http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25407400/steven-stamkos-liked-another-tweet-about-him-and-the-maple-leafs

Honestly, I still think this is more likely to be part of some running joke he has with his friends than anything else. It's more likely "hey, look how badly people want me to be a Leaf, hahaha" than anything else.

That would imply that the guy is pretty immature and cares little about the hopes of Leaf fans, to screw around like that. Stamkos strikes me as a guy with a pretty good head on his shoulders. I'm going with the old 'Where there's smoke, there's fire' line on this one.

 

[Kin]

Or it could just mean that in this era of athletes on social media, you'll occasionally have someone forget they're a celebrity and that their every action will be consumed and analyzed by a scoop-hungry media/fanbase and simply react to things the way a person would.

Or, you know, Stamkos to Toronto e5.

 

[bustaheims]

That would imply that the guy is pretty immature and cares little about the hopes of Leaf fans, to screw around like that. Stamkos strikes me as a guy with a pretty good head on his shoulders. I'm going with the old 'Where there's smoke, there's fire' line on this one.

I'm going to go more with "He's a human being who didn't consider the impact it would have on Leaf fans because they're not really a part of his life" because, well, in that fraction of a second, why would he? Even with a good head on his shoulders, he's not always going to think of how this impacts anyone beyond the people that are actually part of his life. You're trying to attribute a level of awareness to him that is a much higher standard than he reasonably should be held to. He's human, and he's still basically a kid. Most of the time, he's not going to consider the really big picture.

 

[jdh1]

I,m a little iffy in getting SS to the Leafs,especially for big bucks.They are not ready to contend seriously for a few years.The defence isn't near established,the forwards are still in the AHL.I don't want a repeat that Burke made in getting Kessel,and a bunch of 3rd liners around him.
I would rather take the slower approach and build a core as is happening now.

It's not the Kessel approach.

Would you have been ok with having Kessel, Seguin and Hamilton?

That's essentially how the Stamkos thing plays out if he is signed as UFA.

As for not being ready to contend, so what if it takes another three years?

Stamkos would only be 28.

You are assuming Stamkos will be great at 28,which you may be right.How well is Kessel doing at 28? And do we know for sure the team will be a cup contender in three years?

I,ve seen this before,Stamkos today,Kessel yesterday,Sundin and everybody else before that,Gilmour and the boys,Sittler and Salming prior to that.

We need drafting and patience and when the team is ready for a star to get us a cup,then we go for a SS type.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We need drafting and patience and when the team is ready for a star to get us a cup,then we go for a SS type.

You're acting like a Steven Stamkos type comes along every year. He doesn't. Certainly not as a UFA. I get that the "rebuild" only technically started this summer, but the team is very likely about to make their third top-5 draft selection in five years, and their 8th overall pick in one of those years is arguably a top-5 prospect in the entire league right now. Rielly, Marner, Nylander, and whoever we pick this June is a pretty solid base to build around. I would argue that all they need now is a Steven Stamkos type after that.

And it's not like the team would throw drafting and patience right out the window when they sign Stamkos. They key to a great team is drafting well even when you're not picking top-5/top-10/top-15.

 

[cabber24]

I,m a little iffy in getting SS to the Leafs,especially for big bucks.They are not ready to contend seriously for a few years.The defence isn't near established,the forwards are still in the AHL.I don't want a repeat that Burke made in getting Kessel,and a bunch of 3rd liners around him.
I would rather take the slower approach and build a core as is happening now.

It's not the Kessel approach.

Would you have been ok with having Kessel, Seguin and Hamilton?

That's essentially how the Stamkos thing plays out if he is signed as UFA.

As for not being ready to contend, so what if it takes another three years?

Stamkos would only be 28.

You are assuming Stamkos will be great at 28,which you may be right.How well is Kessel doing at 28? And do we know for sure the team will be a cup contender in three years?

I,ve seen this before,Stamkos today,Kessel yesterday,Sundin and everybody else before that,Gilmour and the boys,Sittler and Salming prior to that.

We need drafting and patience and when the team is ready for a star to get us a cup,then we go for a SS type.

Maybe with Stamkos we become a perennial 9th place team never finishing low enough to draft high end players and not good enough to win... but then again a SS does not come available very often for just $.

Due to the history of the Leafs never rebuilding through the draft I would not be disappointed if they stay the course, bottom right out and draft high. Chicago did it, and it looks like EDM is about to takeoff as well. I would not be disappointed either way.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

We need drafting and patience and when the team is ready for a star to get us a cup,then we go for a SS type.

You're acting like a Steven Stamkos type comes along every year. He doesn't. Certainly not as a UFA. I get that the "rebuild" only technically started this summer, but the team is very likely about to make their third top-5 draft selection in five years, and their 8th overall pick in one of those years is arguably a top-5 prospect in the entire league right now. Rielly, Marner, Nylander, and whoever we pick this June is a pretty solid base to build around. I would argue that all they need now is a Steven Stamkos type after that.

And it's not like the team would throw drafting and patience right out the window when they sign Stamkos. They key to a great team is drafting well even when you're not picking top-5/top-10/top-15.

Yeah, weren't Tampa bad for a number of years still with Stamkos and then got good?  I don't see why his presence would prevent the Leafs from rebuilding the rest of the team.

 

[bustaheims]

And it's not like the team would throw drafting and patience right out the window when they sign Stamkos. They key to a great team is drafting well even when you're not picking top-5/top-10/top-15.

I sure hope not, and I honestly believe the current management group is smart enough not to veer far off course should Stamkos fall in their laps, but, I totally understand why people are gun shy, as we've been burned before. The key is definitely to maximize value from picks outside the 1st round, and outside the top 5. You need to be able to find top 6 forwards and top 4 defencemen in the middle of the draft - and, ideally, find a 1st line/top pairing type there, like so many championship calibre teams have. The next two drafts (as well as this past draft) are going to be extremely important for the Leafs going forward.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah, weren't Tampa bad for a number of years still with Stamkos and then got good?  I don't see why his presence would prevent the Leafs from rebuilding the rest of the team.

Maybe, although don't get me wrong, I think replacing Nick Spaling with Steven Stamkos next season gets this team into the playoffs. I just don't really feel like that would squash the rebuild exactly. We wouldn't start immediately trading all our picks and prospects for veterans.

The only thing that changes is our draft position. And I'm fine with going from drafting say 10th overall next season (I'm on record as saying we won't be bottom-5 in 16/17) to 20th overall if it meant we were able to lock up Steven Stamkos.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Yeah, weren't Tampa bad for a number of years still with Stamkos and then got good?  I don't see why his presence would prevent the Leafs from rebuilding the rest of the team.

Maybe, although don't get me wrong, I think replacing Nick Spaling with Steven Stamkos next season gets this team into the playoffs. I just don't really feel like that would squash the rebuild exactly. We wouldn't start immediately trading all our picks and prospects for veterans.

The only thing that changes is our draft position. And I'm fine with going from drafting say 10th overall next season (I'm on record as saying we won't be bottom-5 in 16/17) to 20th overall if it meant we were able to lock up Steven Stamkos.

Very well put Carlton, I agree completely.

People not wanting to pick up a 25-year-old star for no asset cost, in the hope that we can be bad and maybe get a star via the draft is absolutely puzzling, even when you consider the "gunshy due to the past" stuff.

 

[Frank E]

We need drafting and patience and when the team is ready for a star to get us a cup,then we go for a SS type.

You're acting like a Steven Stamkos type comes along every year. He doesn't. Certainly not as a UFA. I get that the "rebuild" only technically started this summer, but the team is very likely about to make their third top-5 draft selection in five years, and their 8th overall pick in one of those years is arguably a top-5 prospect in the entire league right now. Rielly, Marner, Nylander, and whoever we pick this June is a pretty solid base to build around. I would argue that all they need now is a Steven Stamkos type after that.

And it's not like the team would throw drafting and patience right out the window when they sign Stamkos. They key to a great team is drafting well even when you're not picking top-5/top-10/top-15.

I don't think this team will be a playoff team next year even with Steven Stamkos...I think they're still a bottom 5 team, especially since they could still turn JVR and/or Kadri into some picks.

 

[bustaheims]

People not wanting to pick up a 25-year-old star for no asset cost, in the hope that we can be bad and maybe get a star via the draft is absolutely puzzling, even when you consider the "gunshy due to the past" stuff.

Well, it's not truly 100% no asset cost, as cap space is an asset. Contract value is definitely something that has to be considered. Cap space is not necessarily an issue short-term, but it could in a few years, when guys like Rielly, Nylander and Marner are looking for new deals. I think that's a concern for a lot of people, as well. Smart management can help mitigate that to an extent, but there are factors outside of their hands. If Stamkos is looking for a contract that will come with a cap hit of ~$10M per, then that's something you probably do without too much thought, but if he's looking for something closer to $14M (near the max - which another team might very well be willing to do), I'm not sure you do.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think this team will be a playoff team next year even with Steven Stamkos...I think they're still a bottom 5 team, especially since they could still turn JVR and/or Kadri into some picks.

Agreed. If they move out a few more significant pieces between now and next season, they're not going to be a playoff team. There's no way Kessel is the only significant piece moved out. It's really hard to judge what next year's team will be like until we see more of the big picture revealed.

 

[Kin]

Rielly, Marner, Nylander, and whoever we pick this June is a pretty solid base to build around.

Except they're not really. I get the idea that 4 high level prospects is "a good base to build around" but the reality is that the likelihood is that one of those guys won't turn out to be what we want them to be. We're not talking about four #1 or #2 picks here. We're talking about 4 guys picked #8, #5, #4 and wherever. As optimistic as I am about these guys individually, there's not a surefire top of the league guy among them(and the guy we know the most about, Rielly, is showing us mixed things about his ability to ever get there.)

So basically by building around the core you're suggesting you're either wagering heavily on at least one of the guys in the system to be an elite, top of the league sort of player, which the odds aren't good on, or you're expecting Stamkos to be that for the length of the deal which is also a mixed bag considering where he is right now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think this team will be a playoff team next year even with Steven Stamkos...I think they're still a bottom 5 team, especially since they could still turn JVR and/or Kadri into some picks.

Agreed. If they move out a few more significant pieces between now and next season, they're not going to be a playoff team. There's no way Kessel is the only significant piece moved out. It's really hard to judge what next year's team will be like until we see more of the big picture revealed.

They didn't trade Kessel just for the sake of trading their best player and bottoming out. They traded him because they didn't feel like he fit in the teams vision going forward. Whether that was because of his playing style, personality, or a combination of both and other factors, it doesn't really matter. But something was wrong with that relationship.

I think if they felt the same about Kadri and JVR they'd have been gone already. At worst, they weren't completely sure. But I think that their play this season has given the management a pretty good idea that they fit and are here to stay for awhile. 

 

[Kin]

People not wanting to pick up a 25-year-old star for no asset cost, in the hope that we can be bad and maybe get a star via the draft is absolutely puzzling, even when you consider the "gunshy due to the past" stuff.

That's only if you assume that there's a strict(and short) timetable  where the Leafs have to be competitive in a year or two. Because if the actual plan is to rebuild properly it's not "be bad and maybe get a star in the draft" it's "be bad until you get a star in the draft". 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The way scouting has been the last 10-15 years I'm far more confident in higher picks panning out.  Seems like it's to the point where high picks being "busts" is more of an exception to the rule.  Obviously the expectations will change depending on the draft year.

 

[bustaheims]

They didn't trade Kessel just for the sake of trading their best player and bottoming out. They traded him because they didn't feel like he fit in the teams vision going forward. Whether that was because of his playing style, personality, or a combination of both and other factors, it doesn't really matter. But something was wrong with that relationship.

I think if they felt the same about Kadri and JVR they'd have been gone already. At worst, they weren't completely sure. But I think that their play this season has given the management a pretty good idea that they fit and are here to stay for awhile.

I'm not sure I buy that. I agree that, for a variety of reasons, there was more of a rush to move Kessel out, but I don't buy for a second that he's the only one who'll be moved. I don't think the pressure was there on JvR, and I don't think the value was there for Kadri. They weren't going to make moves for the sake of making moves or to just dump contracts. They're still going to try to maximize value for these guys. Just because they seem like a fit now, doesn't mean they'll be a fit in a year or two, and the management team is smart enough to recognize that.

But, even if Kadri and JvR aren't moved, there's still Bozak, Lupul, Phaneuf, Gardiner and Komarov who could all be traded, and the rest of the team are basically pending UFAs.

 

[Kin]

The way scouting has been the last 10-15 years I'm far more confident in higher picks panning out.  Seems like it's to the point where high picks being "busts" is more of an exception to the rule.  Obviously the expectations will change depending on the draft year.

There's a difference, though, between players being "busts" and them not turning out quite the way you want.

For instance, here are the #5 picks in the 10 years before Morgan Rielly

Ryan Whitney, Thomas Vanek, Blake Wheeler, Carey Price, Phil Kessel, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn, Nino Neiderreiter, Ryan Strome

And here are the #4 picks in the ten years before Marner:

Sam Bennett, Seth Jones, Griffin Reinhart, Adam Larsson, Ryan Johanssen, Evander Kane, Alex Pietrangelo, Thomas Hickey, Nicklas Backstrom, Benoit Pouliot

So you're right. There's not much in the way of real Patrik Stefan-esque busts there. I guess you could say that four of those twenty could sort of fairly be called busts(Whitney, Luke Schenn, Hickey, Pouliot) with about the same amount of no doubt elite talents(Price, Pietrangelo, Backstrom, Kessel) and then a bunch of guys who range from good to very good to too soon to tell.

So it seems to me that what I said sort of holds up. The odds are pretty strong that at least one of the guys is going to be a good NHL player but not someone who's the cornerstone type of franchise talent. Like, if Morgan Rielly becomes as good as, say, Brent Seabrook he's not a bust by any definition but in that situation the team is almost certainly still looking around for a #1 defenseman.