Steve Stamkos?

[Kin]

Only those that are scared that Shannyco won't be reasonable with their money.

That's not true though. Everyone advocating for signing Stamkos has said that there's a dollar figure they won't go over and universally that dollar figure has tended towards the low side of what people think he may get.

 

[bustaheims]

You mean like Tampa failing to get a deal done for Stamkos?

No. I mean going to the team that signs Stamkos for a ton of money, and plucking their top prospect and/or draft picks for pieces they now need to make that contract worth the money. Considering how deep the Bolts made it without Stammer, I'm not sure them letting him go would be that big a mistake - especially since it means they have the cap flexibility to retain Hedman, and possibly Bishop (which would also open up opportunities for them to trade Vasilevskiy for other important pieces).

 

[Kin]

To expand on what I said above I think that's sort of this bizarre disconnect in this very lengthy discussion.

People who are generally opposed to signing Stamkos do so, at least in part, because in the past the UFA market has largely shown itself to inflate player's salaries to the point of inefficiency(not universally but largely).

People who are pro-signing Stamkos do so on the basis of saying "We want him, but only if Free Agency doesn't result in any inefficient cap dollars". The common figure at which people figure Stamkos loses his value is about 10.5 million but that's a cap figure that equals what Toews/Kane signed for and is roughly what Kopitar got. So a 26 year old elite player should cost you 10-10.5 million dollars in the most favourable situations(an exclusive negotiating window, getting to sell them on consistency, hoping they take less in the interest in team cohesion).

So it's a little hard for me to understand a thought process that boils down to "Stamkos is elite, he'd be a vital part of the Leafs contending, a crucial part of team leadership...but if he wants a million dollars in inefficient cap dollars I'm out".

 

[TBLeafer]

A little faith in Shanny selling Stamkos on the Shanaplan and a little faith in Stammer walking for the sole purpose of becoming a Leaf and not needing an inflated contract to become one.

 

[Kin]

Another thing to keep in mind, and I bring this up because if I were signing a UFA deal and thinking about money this would almost certainly be a big consideration, is that we may be underplaying the role total dollar amount will play into this.

Toews and Kane signed 85 million dollar deals. Kopitar signed an 80 million dollar deal. For Stamkos to sign a deal as lucrative as the one Toews/Kane got his AAV would be over 12.

 

[bustaheims]

A little faith in Shanny selling Stamkos on the Shanaplan and a little faith in Stammer walking for the sole purpose of becoming a Leaf and not needing an inflated contract to become one.

I have a lot more faith in the history of the UFA market, in dollar signs, and their ability to influence where players decide they want to play. Stamkos isn't dumb. He's only going to be willing to leave so much money on the table to sign anywhere, and it's going to be an even smaller amount if it means coming to a rebuilding team. The kind of buy-in and discount you're talking about . . . it's just not a realistic or rational outcome.

 

[sniper55]

I didn't say that you needed university level English classes to have interesting discussions. Saying "all of our players are great, and anyone that doesn't agree with that are downers", doesn't create that kind of "debate".

Nobody should be ridiculed for their opinion, but at the same time, if you're going to call others downers (I don't mean you in particular, just an example) because they don't share the same opinion, then of course those posts are going to be more criticized than others.

Don't get distracted by the 'downers' point and lose the fact that is being shared here.  Recently it has been better but overall typically the mocking, belittling, etc has been pathetic over the last few years. 

Being on this site for many, many years I can say that I have seen the community here lose some great posters in exchange for arrogant ones that try to nit pick every sentence or even words to create a counter point when someone is looking to share a basic thought.  Simple as that.

If you haven't noticed that when some hockey fans have tried to post some ideas they have... then good for you.  If you are saying it doesn't happen here then you are naive so brace yourself for when it does happen to you.

Not saying that at all. It's an internet forum, of course that's going to happen. You're right in saying there is occasionally some mocking, but at the same time, there are also some well thought out posts that are brushed off as being pessimistic. It goes both ways.

If I post an opinion that's probably unrealistic, I'm not going to be surprised when there are a few snarky replies.

Just so I don't derail the thread too much, I would generally lean towards taking a slightly more patient approach and letting the team develop at it's own pace. It allows the team to have more cap flexibility in a few years when you're hoping to be a contending team. By then, you have a better idea of the teams needs based on the core that you are trying to build now.

 

[TBLeafer]

A little faith in Shanny selling Stamkos on the Shanaplan and a little faith in Stammer walking for the sole purpose of becoming a Leaf and not needing an inflated contract to become one.

I have a lot more faith in the history of the UFA market, in dollar signs, and their ability to influence where players decide they want to play. Stamkos isn't dumb. He's only going to be willing to leave so much money on the table to sign anywhere, and it's going to be an even smaller amount if it means coming to a rebuilding team. The kind of buy-in and discount you're talking about . . . it's just not a realistic or rational outcome.

If he still isn't signed come July 1st, we shall see.

If he signs with the Leafs, he isn't going to want to handcuff them to the point where he will hinder them from becoming a contender.

Endorsements here can take care of the rest.

 

[jdh1]

A little faith in Shanny selling Stamkos on the Shanaplan and a little faith in Stammer walking for the sole purpose of becoming a Leaf and not needing an inflated contract to become one.

One way that could work to get him to sign for less,although the NHLPA would balk,is to sign for 8 mil or even less.

Then big companies like Tim Horton, Mcdonald's or some other companies ,pony up and give him million dollar contracts to advertise him promoting their products.

I'm not sure whether he would have that much charisma or pull in the Canadian marketplace to make that feesable,because he's not Gretsky,but it might work.

 

[bustaheims]

If he still isn't signed come July 1st, we shall see.

If he signs with the Leafs, he isn't going to want to handcuff them to the point where he will hinder them from becoming a contender.

Endorsements here can take care of the rest.

The endorsement angle has been explored to death with a lot of players, and, the truth is, there just isn't that much money in them. The Canadian market doesn't generate big money endorsements, and the US market endorsements are those he'd get regardless of where he plays. They don't come close to making up the difference.

But, really, how much money do you really think you're asking Stamkos to leave on the table in your scenario? $10 million? $15 million? More? There's absolutely no rational reason for him to do so. A couple million over the life of the deal, maybe, but, more than that? Not going to happen.

 

[bustaheims]

Then big companies like Tim Horton, Mcdonald's or some other companies ,pony up and give him million dollar contracts to advertise him promoting their products.

The Canadian marketplace is simply not big enough to justify that kind of expenditure - especially for companies like Tim Horton's or McDonald's, as they're unlikely to see it as turning into a significant enough increase in their already substantial revenue. There's a reason we don't see tons of hockey players attached to ad campaigns - they don't have the pull in the US, and they don't provide enough of an increase in Canada to make it worth their time.

 

[Kin]

If he signs with the Leafs, he isn't going to want to handcuff them to the point where he will hinder them from becoming a contender. 

We really don't know that. Everyone is different. He might not view giving him market value as being an obstacle to the Leafs eventual plans. I can't say for certain but I'd guess Steven Stamkos isn't doing a deep dive over at PPP looking into cap projections.

Wanting to be a Leaf and wanting to make as much as he can aren't mutually exclusive impulses.

 

[Bill_Berg]

A little faith in Shanny selling Stamkos on the Shanaplan and a little faith in Stammer walking for the sole purpose of becoming a Leaf and not needing an inflated contract to become one.

I have a lot more faith in the history of the UFA market, in dollar signs, and their ability to influence where players decide they want to play. Stamkos isn't dumb. He's only going to be willing to leave so much money on the table to sign anywhere, and it's going to be an even smaller amount if it means coming to a rebuilding team. The kind of buy-in and discount you're talking about . . . it's just not a realistic or rational outcome.

I don't know. I think it's happened thousands of times in NHL 16.

 

[Kin]

The endorsement angle has been explored to death with a lot of players, and, the truth is, there just isn't that much money in them. The Canadian market doesn't generate big money endorsements, and the US market endorsements are those he'd get regardless of where he plays. They don't come close to making up the difference.

And even then, the size of the Canadian market is too big a consideration. Right now Tim Horton's has an endorsement deal with Sidney Crosby(I think I saw him in a commercial for them).

Would Tim Horton's drop Crosby for Stamkos? Why? Crosby's a bigger deal. Is there a million dollars worth of donuts to be sold on the basis of Stamkos being in a commercial in addition to Crosby?

Almost certainly not. Are people in Vancouver or Ottawa or Montreal going to be more likely to buy a Donut because the biggest player on the Leafs is in an ad?

Really we're talking about the Toronto market and local endorsements are less of the million dollar variety and more of the "Do an ad for my dealership and I'll let you lease a car for free" variety.

 

[bustaheims]

Really we're talking about the Toronto market and local endorsements are less of the million dollar variety and more of the "Do an ad for my dealership and I'll let you lease a car for free" variety.

Seriously. The local guys don't usually even have $1 million for their total advertising budget for the year. For local endorsements, we're talking thousands of dollars. Maybe tens of thousands for some of the more significant local businesses. We're not getting anywhere near the kind of money that'll make up the money Stamkos is being asked to leave on the table.

 

[jdh1]

Then big companies like Tim Horton, Mcdonald's or some other companies ,pony up and give him million dollar contracts to advertise him promoting their products.

The Canadian marketplace is simply not big enough to justify that kind of expenditure - especially for companies like Tim Horton's or McDonald's, as they're unlikely to see it as turning into a significant enough increase in their already substantial revenue. There's a reason we don't see tons of hockey players attached to ad campaigns - they don't have the pull in the US, and they don't provide enough of an increase in Canada to make it worth their time.

I understand what your saying and agree with you.I was just trying a idea that others have already mentioned just for conversation.

Besides those companies would probably rather have Matthews promoting their products than Stamkos.

 

[bustaheims]

Besides those companies would probably rather have Matthews promoting their products than Stamkos.

Honestly, the only celebrities those companies care about promoting their products are of the major or international variety - if they're going to bother, at all. In terms of hockey, that basically means, Crosby, Crosby, or Crosby.

 

[Kin]

Besides those companies would probably rather have Matthews promoting their products than Stamkos.

Yeah, that's the other thing. Endorsement dollars are about high profiles, not really success. People know who Sidney Crosby is, even non-hockey fans. Tim Duncan has won more than twice as many Championships as Lebron James but Lebron James is the guy who just signed the billion dollar deal with Nike. Stamkos has been in the league a while now without much in the way of big moments likely to draw in non-die hards(no Cups, no Gold Medals, no Harts)

Building that sort of profile at this point seems pretty unlikely no matter what happens. I mean, even a guy like Toews who's had tons of success with his team isn't a big star in a non-hockey sense.

 

[jdh1]

Besides those companies would probably rather have Matthews promoting their products than Stamkos.

Honestly, the only celebrities those companies care about promoting their products are of the major or international variety - if they're going to bother, at all. In terms of hockey, that basically means, Crosby, Crosby, or Crosby.

I wonder how much Domi makes promoting the cable channel?

 

[bustaheims]

I wonder how much Domi makes promoting the cable channel?

Cab fare and a free lunch.