The Defensive Logjam
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
herman
Well-known member
Okay, y'all need to see all of these, because hockeyviz.com is a wonderful tool for processing shot/possession data. 18 game sample size (for most), so it might be a bit spiky still. I'm choosing the WOWYs because no player acts in a vacuum so possession statistics make more sense in context.
Same as the above, these are score-adjusted projections per 60 min.
Rielly:
Tasked with the shutdown role again this year to develop his defensive game, Rielly is starting the year much the same as last year: largely dependable, but high event in both directions. Gardiner was also a high event player up until 2014 (6 years after being drafted in 2008). This could be the year he turns the corner under a stable defensive system and partner. See that number 34 in the top right corner too?
Zaitsev: (no data)
You can extrapolate Zaitsev a bit from where he shows up on his teammates' charts. He has worked well with Rielly, and during his stint with Marincin, but is not Gardiner enough to prop up Hunwick. So glad that experiment is over with.
Gardiner: <3 <3 <3
Viewers might pick on those moments that Gardiner coughs up the puck at the offensive blueline trying to thread a pass, or when he gets turned around at the red line and the puck skips over to a wide open trailer for a tap in, but the numbers don't lie. Gardiner is a CORSI-god. Everyone is better with him, even bad players, and worse without. This may be a function of the cushy minutes Babcock gives him against secondary opposition, but he was doing this against top lines last year with Phaneuf too. He does this by being able to hang onto the puck for precious extra seconds to make better decisions (most of the time), and his skating allows him to generate more options.
He hasn't broken 40 pts in his career, so if we can keep him on a Rielly-esque deal, I can't argue with that.
Carrick: <3 <3 <3
I loved Winnik, and I love him even more for helping us land Carrick. Don't ever split him and Gardiner up, unless we get a Trouba+ to bump Zaitsev down. Like Gardiner, he is a great skater and puck handler, but with a more offense-oriented style. He plays bigger than he is, and probably more physically engaged than he needs to be (checking means it takes more time to get back to position). Like the rest of our top 4, he has the intelligence to process and contribute in the more dynamic style the Leafs are playing this season (and going forward forever and ever I hope).
Polak:
Opposite of Gardiner/Carrick. Do you know why his numbers are so bad, even though he always seems to be the one taking long bomb shots from the line every time? Because the puck on his stick is treated like a bomb. Polak's lack of lateral agility means he can't skate out of trouble. His game style is too straight forward to hold the puck for longer than 1 second, and he has to chip out (and turn the puck over) at the first sign of forecheck.
Marincin:
Marincin has regressed from last year, where even his shot suppression ability appears to be on the fritz. There's more panic to his game now. I suspect it's the fact that his outlets are more dynamic this year than last year, so he's may be overthinking. His reactions are not as instinctive as before once the puck crosses the blueline. Still very good at disrupting incursions, but once it gets through, he's stuck.
Hunwick:
Hunwick has reached meme status for both routinely obstructing his goaltender and not obstructing opposing forwards at all. He's a standstill defender and has further lost a step both on his skates and in processing game flow since last season. Still pretty good on the PK with Polak, since all that requires is blocking and icing the puck. Like Polak, he has a lot of difficulty with the E-W game that the league is shifting back towards.
Corrado: No data
Same as the above, these are score-adjusted projections per 60 min.
Rielly:
Tasked with the shutdown role again this year to develop his defensive game, Rielly is starting the year much the same as last year: largely dependable, but high event in both directions. Gardiner was also a high event player up until 2014 (6 years after being drafted in 2008). This could be the year he turns the corner under a stable defensive system and partner. See that number 34 in the top right corner too?
Zaitsev: (no data)
You can extrapolate Zaitsev a bit from where he shows up on his teammates' charts. He has worked well with Rielly, and during his stint with Marincin, but is not Gardiner enough to prop up Hunwick. So glad that experiment is over with.
Gardiner: <3 <3 <3
Viewers might pick on those moments that Gardiner coughs up the puck at the offensive blueline trying to thread a pass, or when he gets turned around at the red line and the puck skips over to a wide open trailer for a tap in, but the numbers don't lie. Gardiner is a CORSI-god. Everyone is better with him, even bad players, and worse without. This may be a function of the cushy minutes Babcock gives him against secondary opposition, but he was doing this against top lines last year with Phaneuf too. He does this by being able to hang onto the puck for precious extra seconds to make better decisions (most of the time), and his skating allows him to generate more options.
He hasn't broken 40 pts in his career, so if we can keep him on a Rielly-esque deal, I can't argue with that.
Carrick: <3 <3 <3
I loved Winnik, and I love him even more for helping us land Carrick. Don't ever split him and Gardiner up, unless we get a Trouba+ to bump Zaitsev down. Like Gardiner, he is a great skater and puck handler, but with a more offense-oriented style. He plays bigger than he is, and probably more physically engaged than he needs to be (checking means it takes more time to get back to position). Like the rest of our top 4, he has the intelligence to process and contribute in the more dynamic style the Leafs are playing this season (and going forward forever and ever I hope).
Polak:
Opposite of Gardiner/Carrick. Do you know why his numbers are so bad, even though he always seems to be the one taking long bomb shots from the line every time? Because the puck on his stick is treated like a bomb. Polak's lack of lateral agility means he can't skate out of trouble. His game style is too straight forward to hold the puck for longer than 1 second, and he has to chip out (and turn the puck over) at the first sign of forecheck.
Marincin:
Marincin has regressed from last year, where even his shot suppression ability appears to be on the fritz. There's more panic to his game now. I suspect it's the fact that his outlets are more dynamic this year than last year, so he's may be overthinking. His reactions are not as instinctive as before once the puck crosses the blueline. Still very good at disrupting incursions, but once it gets through, he's stuck.
Hunwick:
Hunwick has reached meme status for both routinely obstructing his goaltender and not obstructing opposing forwards at all. He's a standstill defender and has further lost a step both on his skates and in processing game flow since last season. Still pretty good on the PK with Polak, since all that requires is blocking and icing the puck. Like Polak, he has a lot of difficulty with the E-W game that the league is shifting back towards.
Corrado: No data
herman
Well-known member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
It's still early. These stats are more descriptive than predictive at this stage, and it's hard to say how deployment will be affected going forward. Barring injury, I think Babcock is going to ride Rielly/Zaitsev, Gardiner/Carrick, Hunwick-Polak until something breaks.
This year, we're giving up way more chances than last year; Andersen's pre-season injury and lack of training camp made that wonderfully apparent on the scoreboard. Half of our defense is good to great offensively and serviceable/growing defensively. The other half is a tire fire burning in every direction. As much as we like to harp on Phaneuf, he was a stabilizing presence in the early part of last season and moving him out technically hurts us as a group in the short term.
Translating this all into a GA prediction is not something I'm equipped to handle, other than to say lower CA/60 logically leads to lower GA. Goals are such a percentage driven event that it's not really something teams have a direct control over, despite what the lay viewer believes. For example, can you say Auston Matthews is sucking because he hasn't scored in a dozen games?
What the team can control, however, are positioning, using the system to open up options with the puck, using the system reduce opponent options when we don't have the puck. What the players can do to fulfill those directives is always skate (edge work, conditioning, shift length discipline), and develop their individual puck skills (handling, shooting, passing). All of those things lead to preventing chances, generating our own chances.
We're a young team on the upswing with crappy veteran-anchors and every one is still learning what appears to be, according to Stephen Desrocher's experience with Rookie camps, an ever-evolving system. Overall, while our defense is slightly worse, our goaltending and offense are both (significantly) better.
LuncheonMeat
New member
Herman, I always appreciate your insight, thanks for that!
herman
Well-known member
Thanks Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate and LuncheonMeat! The way I watch and enjoy the game has drastically changed (and improved I'd say) since participating in your discussions here, thanks to the community pool of knowledge, experience, and wisdom.
I found Corsi/Fenwick and all those percentages pretty intimidating a couple of years ago, but visualizations like HERO/WARRIOR charts, and these hockeyviz graphics give the numbers the right kind of digestability for me to understand what they mean.
I found Corsi/Fenwick and all those percentages pretty intimidating a couple of years ago, but visualizations like HERO/WARRIOR charts, and these hockeyviz graphics give the numbers the right kind of digestability for me to understand what they mean.
herman
Well-known member
https://hockeypdocast.com/2016/11/17/episode-116-keeping-up-or-get-left-behind/
Bret Hedican dropped by the HockeyPDOCast a couple of weeks ago to talk about how the game has changed for defensemen (this is shortly after Brent Burns signed his extension).
Defense is notoriously difficult to accurately assess statistically. Compounded with a shifting metagame of mixed philosophies, finding the right players is even harder now in a much faster game. Hedican gives a solid breakdown of what makeup of defenseman has become the new baseline in the first block of this podcast. A really good point he makes is that all the kids coming into the league now have never seen, let alone experienced, the clutch and grab era prior to the '04 lockout.
In other news, Samuel Girard has put up 33 pts (3/30) in 20 games so far with Shawinigan (QMJHL). He was drafted by the Predators 47th this past draft after leading the CHL in points for a defenseman last season (i.e. even more offense-driving than Rielly at his age). I hope we get to see him at the World Juniors on Team Canada this year.
Bret Hedican dropped by the HockeyPDOCast a couple of weeks ago to talk about how the game has changed for defensemen (this is shortly after Brent Burns signed his extension).
Defense is notoriously difficult to accurately assess statistically. Compounded with a shifting metagame of mixed philosophies, finding the right players is even harder now in a much faster game. Hedican gives a solid breakdown of what makeup of defenseman has become the new baseline in the first block of this podcast. A really good point he makes is that all the kids coming into the league now have never seen, let alone experienced, the clutch and grab era prior to the '04 lockout.
In other news, Samuel Girard has put up 33 pts (3/30) in 20 games so far with Shawinigan (QMJHL). He was drafted by the Predators 47th this past draft after leading the CHL in points for a defenseman last season (i.e. even more offense-driving than Rielly at his age). I hope we get to see him at the World Juniors on Team Canada this year.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
herman said:
A bit unfair considering Rielly was hurt in his draft year.
Nik the Trik said:
Nashville's draft made me so jealous of them. 3 solid D picks to already add to one of the best defence groups in the league.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
herman said:
#FreeCorrado
herman
Well-known member
It's not out yet, but Jack Han of the One Minute Tactics systems analysis videos is due to post up a breakdown of the Leafs' defensive zone coverage scheme on The Athletic some time today.
https://twitter.com/ml_han/status/808816584986861569
www.twitter.com/ml_han/status/808816584986861569
The Leafs breakout scheme is pretty good. Our puck retrieval needs work and has resulted in the us having the 6th highest dump out rate (20.7%) this year, per SPORTLOGIQ (www.twitter.com/SPORTLOGiQ/status/808716542452125698).
I don't have an exact reference for this, other than Jack mentioning it on the latest TSN Hockey Analytics show, but most goals are generated within 6 seconds from controlled entries, or failed exits.
https://twitter.com/ml_han/status/808816584986861569
www.twitter.com/ml_han/status/808816584986861569
The Leafs breakout scheme is pretty good. Our puck retrieval needs work and has resulted in the us having the 6th highest dump out rate (20.7%) this year, per SPORTLOGIQ (www.twitter.com/SPORTLOGiQ/status/808716542452125698).
I don't have an exact reference for this, other than Jack mentioning it on the latest TSN Hockey Analytics show, but most goals are generated within 6 seconds from controlled entries, or failed exits.
herman
Well-known member
https://theathletic.com/29885/2016/12/14/the-video-room-why-has-a-babcock-led-leafs-team-struggled-defensively/
tl:dr;
The Leafs defensive scheme is a modified Swarm that relies on out-numbering the opponent in select areas to generate turnovers and exits. It is more complex than a traditional zone-D and requires players to be both positionally sound and attentive to their teammates and the developing play, requiring multiple reads and a lot of communication. It allows our smaller team to play bigger by committee.
It sort of explains why Polak and Hunwick, more traditional defenders, have difficulty with an active/roving soccer-like scheme. Part of the growing pains were evident in Andersen's first few games where the backdoor was left wide open because defenders attempted to stack one side, or there were indecisive moments behind the net leaving Andersen with no one to pass to.
The game is moving away from big hits and physical crease-clearing defense, and it's more about stripping the puck away with control and support.
tl:dr;
The Leafs defensive scheme is a modified Swarm that relies on out-numbering the opponent in select areas to generate turnovers and exits. It is more complex than a traditional zone-D and requires players to be both positionally sound and attentive to their teammates and the developing play, requiring multiple reads and a lot of communication. It allows our smaller team to play bigger by committee.
It sort of explains why Polak and Hunwick, more traditional defenders, have difficulty with an active/roving soccer-like scheme. Part of the growing pains were evident in Andersen's first few games where the backdoor was left wide open because defenders attempted to stack one side, or there were indecisive moments behind the net leaving Andersen with no one to pass to.
The game is moving away from big hits and physical crease-clearing defense, and it's more about stripping the puck away with control and support.