The Great Leafs Centennial Goaltending Debate

[GhostofPotvin29]

Do you guys remember Eddie Belfour's first season as a Leaf?  After 9 games they were 2-6-1, and everyone was calling for Eddie's head and why did we let go of Cujo and so on and so forth...

...he ended up being fine.  Let's hope it's the same with Andersen.

But Belfour's first game was a shutout win, and then Trevor Kidd lost the next 3 straight games, so not really the same situation.

His first 10 or 11 games he was around a .900 SV% and if you take out the first game shutout it was into the .890 range.  Obviously it's very tough to compare then to now though.

 

[herman]

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/595p7u/analysis_of_frederik_andersens_playstyle_and_why/

A surprisingly high quality analysis.

If playing aggressively in net does this to a goalie then why should the leafs continue to tell Andersen to play like that?
Watch enough clips of the leafs defending a rush this year and you?ll start to understand. Although the number of games is small it appears that Babcock?s expectation is that the defense and center should be responsible for any pucks moving laterally on the ice. The defense and the center, if doing their jobs correctly, should restrict any quality shots from coming across ice on the rush. On defensive zone play it?s the wingers jobs to stop passing and shooting from the defensemen while the center covers the slot for any cross ice movement deeper in the zone.

The change in Andersen?s style appears to be something which Babcock and Briere want to match the team?s defensive system. Andersen?s job is simple and clear. Worry about the puck carrier first and foremost. If the pass makes it across the ice then it was a defensive error and can?t be blamed on the goaltender. If Babcock were annoyed by Andersen?s aggressively play while consistently being scored on from cross ice passes then he wouldn't be blaming his defensive corps in post game interviews while confirming that he is happy with the goaltending.
Babcock has high expectations of his defensemen. They have to be extremely responsible and positionally sound. In his mind, there is no reason the goaltender can?t commit fully to the puck carrier.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Ian Shantz ‏@IanShantz
Babcock is asked about organization's goaltending "history" in recent years. "It's five games in. Holy s--t." Babcock didn't like question.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Ian Shantz ‏@IanShantz
Babcock is asked about organization's goaltending "history" in recent years. "It's five games in. Holy s--t." Babcock didn't like question.

From @kristen_shilton:

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Would love to know which reporter that was. "The guy on Saturday night said...". In the words of our esteemed coach, holy @%!$.

 

[Arn]

Sounds like work experience boy fed a line by his mentor

 

[Kin]

On the one hand, this is the correct answer. On the other, "Holy Crap, the Ocean is big!"

 

[ZBBM]

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/595p7u/analysis_of_frederik_andersens_playstyle_and_why/

A surprisingly high quality analysis.

If playing aggressively in net does this to a goalie then why should the leafs continue to tell Andersen to play like that?
Watch enough clips of the leafs defending a rush this year and you?ll start to understand. Although the number of games is small it appears that Babcock?s expectation is that the defense and center should be responsible for any pucks moving laterally on the ice. The defense and the center, if doing their jobs correctly, should restrict any quality shots from coming across ice on the rush. On defensive zone play it?s the wingers jobs to stop passing and shooting from the defensemen while the center covers the slot for any cross ice movement deeper in the zone.

The change in Andersen?s style appears to be something which Babcock and Briere want to match the team?s defensive system. Andersen?s job is simple and clear. Worry about the puck carrier first and foremost. If the pass makes it across the ice then it was a defensive error and can?t be blamed on the goaltender. If Babcock were annoyed by Andersen?s aggressively play while consistently being scored on from cross ice passes then he wouldn't be blaming his defensive corps in post game interviews while confirming that he is happy with the goaltending.
Babcock has high expectations of his defensemen. They have to be extremely responsible and positionally sound. In his mind, there is no reason the goaltender can?t commit fully to the puck carrier.

So in other words, Babcock's defensive strategy hinges on defensemen taking away the Royal Road.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So the reporter asking those dumb questions was Ken Campbell. He would have probably been my 2nd guess after Feschuk.

 

[herman]

So the reporter asking those dumb questions was Ken Campbell. He would have probably been my 2nd guess after Feschuk.

http://www.tsn.ca/video/babcock-gets-testy-with-reporter-over-goaltending-questions~979559

 

[herman]

So in other words, Babcock's defensive strategy hinges on defensemen taking away the Royal Road.

I'd say defenses should always try to take that away regardless of the system. Babcock/Briere appear to favour cutting the angles more aggressively and supporting the goalie on the flanks. Andersen is pretty big already so at the top of the blue ice, there's not much to see.

Right now he's getting beat on the glove side because guess which shoulder he dropped his 6'5" ~250lb body on?

 

[Zee]

I don't agree with Babcock's assessment that "it's only been 5 games".  If goaltending wasn't an issue during his first season with the Leafs, why did the Leafs go out and get 2 new goaltenders this year?

 

[ZBBM]

So in other words, Babcock's defensive strategy hinges on defensemen taking away the Royal Road.

I'd say defenses should always try to take that away regardless of the system. Babcock/Briere appear to favour cutting the angles more aggressively and supporting the goalie on the flanks. Andersen is pretty big already so at the top of the blue ice, there's not much to see.

Right now he's getting beat on the glove side because guess which shoulder he dropped his 6'5" ~250lb body on?

Well, I took from his remarks an extreme reliance on denying the cross-ice passes, that the goalie should never be blamed if the defense fails at that.  I am in the "give him a lot more time" camp, but I think what a lot of Andersen's early critics are mad about is his failure to "make a save" when the defense breaks down. 

And there I would partially agree with them.  What separates the best goalies from the average ones is their ability to make saves more often than not even when the defense fails.  Trading for, and then giving a big contract to, a goalie implies pretty strongly that you think he should be better than average.

 

[herman]

The trade was largely predicated on the Leafs liking Andersen as a fit for the goalie analytics they've been convinced are models for success.

Andersen's contract is more in line with a league average goalie actually.

5 games (4 for Andersen) is really about 6% of Andersen's season. There is plenty of time to figure things out. This whole season is also really the first year of the build so lots of wonky things are to be expected.

 

[ZBBM]

The trade was largely predicated on the Leafs liking Andersen as a fit for the goalie analytics they've been convinced are models for success.

Andersen's contract is more in line with a league average goalie actually.

5 games (4 for Andersen) is really about 6% of Andersen's season. There is plenty of time to figure things out. This whole season is also really the first year of the build so lots of wonky things are to be expected.

I agree with you, except the implication of the bolded -- they gave a multiyear contract to a goalie they expect to be average? 

Perhaps that's not what you meant, though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And there I would partially agree with them.  What separates the best goalies from the average ones is their ability to make saves more often than not even when the defense fails.  Trading for, and then giving a big contract to, a goalie implies pretty strongly that you think he should be better than average.

If that's the issue then your criticism should be directed at the Leafs management for expecting a goalie who through 3 NHL seasons posted about league-average stats to suddenly become better than that. Nobody here can fault Andersen for not being a top-10 goalie in the league.

 

[bustaheims]

I agree with you, except the implication of the bolded -- they gave a multiyear contract to a goalie they expect to be average? 

Perhaps that's not what you meant, though.

He has the 18th highest cap hit for goalies, making his contract relatively average for starting goalies. The Leafs knew what they were getting, and they certainly didn't expect him to suddenly become an elite goalie (nor did they pay him like one). They picked up a guy who they saw as a dependable, consistent option to start in net - one that won't cost you many games, but may not win you many on his own, either - who is still fairly young. The price - both in terms of assets and in terms of contract - is what those guys go for these days.

 

[mr grieves]

And there I would partially agree with them.  What separates the best goalies from the average ones is their ability to make saves more often than not even when the defense fails.  Trading for, and then giving a big contract to, a goalie implies pretty strongly that you think he should be better than average.

If that's the issue then your criticism should be directed at the Leafs management for expecting a goalie who through 3 NHL seasons posted about league-average stats to suddenly become better than that. Nobody here can fault Andersen for not being a top-10 goalie in the league.

At some point, though, he'll have to be average. Lots of low save percentages in the league now, and one game (maybe tonight's!) could move him from the bottom third into the middle, but he hasn't looked very good.

 

[mr grieves]

I agree with you, except the implication of the bolded -- they gave a multiyear contract to a goalie they expect to be average? 

Perhaps that's not what you meant, though.

He has the 18th highest cap hit for goalies, making his contract relatively average for starting goalies. The Leafs knew what they were getting, and they certainly didn't expect him to suddenly become an elite goalie (nor did they pay him like one). They picked up a guy who they saw as a dependable, consistent option to start in net - one that won't cost you many games, but may not win you many on his own, either - who is still fairly young. The price - both in terms of assets and in terms of contract - is what those guys go for these days.

Isn't there an argument from analytic community that that's why you don't get into that market?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The trade was largely predicated on the Leafs liking Andersen as a fit for the goalie analytics they've been convinced are models for success.

Andersen's contract is more in line with a league average goalie actually.

5 games (4 for Andersen) is really about 6% of Andersen's season. There is plenty of time to figure things out. This whole season is also really the first year of the build so lots of wonky things are to be expected.

I agree with you, except the implication of the bolded -- they gave a multiyear contract to a goalie they expect to be average? 

Perhaps that's not what you meant, though.

What's wrong with league average goaltending?  I think sometimes people talk about that as if average = bad.  It's not like the last 10 years of Stanley Cup champions are littered with elite goaltenders.