[Edit: I probably should have read further in the thread before posting this comment .... sorry if it is redundant ...]
It would not even cross my mind to trade Connolly in a Lupul-type deal right now.
First, Connolly has a lot of value to the leafs for the remainder of this season. If Bozak or Grabbo get injured, he can fill in. He can play on the PK and the point on the PP. He is the leafs 6th highest scoring forward despite the fact that he has been playing on the 3rd line with Crabbe and Lombardi. (Remember how productive Kessel was last year with Crabbe on his wing?) He's on a 50 point pace over 82 games. He plays decently on defense and makes a good 3rd-line center, though of course, he is overpaid for that.
Second, if you are worried about the Leaf's salary structure for 2012-2013, remember that there are a huge number of variables to work out between then and now. We should let some of those variables work themselves out before committing ourselves to a trade where we give up assets to get rid of a guy. We don't know what the cap or the cap rules are going to be. We don't know if there will be a buyout period between CBAs like there was last time -- we might be able to get out of Komisarek's or Connolly's contract for free without giving up any assets. We don't know if we will resign grabbo or what he will cost. We don't know what other players might be available for trade or who might occupy Connolly cap space. We might guess at some of these things but it makes sense deferring making highly costly decisions (such as trading a good young player to get rid of Connolly) until we know.
Finally, I don't think Connolly's contract is really all that onerous. Burke gave him precisely the deal I would have -- he paid a big price for a very short-term commitment. 2-way centers who can score at a decent clip like Connolly are hard to come by. Every off-season there are typically a number of teams looking for better centers than what they have and there are typically not enough high-quality centers to satisfy everyone. (This is really the only way to explain Montreal's deal for Gomez.) This coming off-season (ignoring the possible disruptions and turmoil the CBA negotiations will cause), I do not think it will be difficult to unload Connolly if that is what the leafs need to do. There will be a team who will want to try out the guy for 1 year, hoping he'll get 50-60 points on the second line on their team -- it is very low risk and decent reward. As an example (from capgeek), if you project a 64-million cap then LA has 14-million in cap space and 19 players signed. LA currently sitting last in the league in goals for. Now, naturally LA will try for Parise first (IF Parise makes it to the open market) but they may not get him. Even if they do, perhaps they can afford both a $7 million Parise and a $4.5 million Connolly. Anyway, that's just one example. Connolly's potential for 50-60 points, 1-year contract and the normal lack of quality centers around the league should make it possible for Toronto to ditch Connolly without too much trouble if they choose to (IMHO). Though, lots could change depending on the details of the new CBA.
